AUD/USD

[Bailxtrader]

Will the AUD/USD fall sharp today and make for a sell opportunity?
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) continues to grind higher, but price action still carries the hallmarks of a broader sideways range. Despite printing fresh highs, this slow and steady climb often precedes a sharper downside move.

While the upper boundary of the range has shifted from 0.64 to 0.65 and now approaches 0.6550, there are signs that bearish momentum could soon return. Importantly, AUD/USD is now testing the longer-term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6549 — a zone that may act as strong resistance. A rejection from this level could spark a swift downside move in the Australian dollar against the US dollar, even if only temporarily.

Notably, Wednesday’s spike higher in AUD/USD stalled between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the monthly R1 pivot point — a confluence that adds weight to this resistance zone. Currently, AUD/USD is hovering just above the monthly pivot point at 0.6487, which could act as a short-term support level and trigger a minor bounce.

However, unless broader sentiment shifts significantly, bears may look to fade rallies towards the upper end of the current intraday range. On the 1-hour chart, this could offer tactical short opportunities in the Australian dollar against the US dollar as momentum stalls near key resistance levels.

 

[Bailxtrader]

Will the AUD/USD fall sharp today and make for a sell opportunity?
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) continues to grind higher, but price action still carries the hallmarks of a broader sideways range. Despite printing fresh highs, this slow and steady climb often precedes a sharper downside move.

While the upper boundary of the range has shifted from 0.64 to 0.65 and now approaches 0.6550, there are signs that bearish momentum could soon return. Importantly, AUD/USD is now testing the longer-term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6549 — a zone that may act as strong resistance. A rejection from this level could spark a swift downside move in the Australian dollar against the US dollar, even if only temporarily.

Notably, Wednesday’s spike higher in AUD/USD stalled between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the monthly R1 pivot point — a confluence that adds weight to this resistance zone. Currently, AUD/USD is hovering just above the monthly pivot point at 0.6487, which could act as a short-term support level and trigger a minor bounce.

However, unless broader sentiment shifts significantly, bears may look to fade rallies towards the upper end of the current intraday range. On the 1-hour chart, this could offer tactical short opportunities in the Australian dollar against the US dollar as momentum stalls near key resistance levels.

View attachment 201379

AUD/USD The AUD only came down a little bit in retrospect. Gave out some good Greds Though. Riding on a short range at highs at the top of the range. Still Sceptic and look for lows 0.6466 now @ 0.65135 mid highs. The thing is don't ride of the USD just yet.
Although with trump in power who knows....( creepy )

The Australian dollar opens the week in a holding pattern, with traders looking ahead to a packed schedule of high-impact events. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, but its updated projections and Powell’s guidance may shape the USD’s next move. Meanwhile, Australian labour data could offer crucial clues for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next policy step. With AUD/USD stuck below 0.65, both macro drivers and technical signals suggest pivotal moves lie ahead.

 

[Bailxtrader]

AUD/USD...America finely bouncing back last night to a low @ 0.6470 will the USD Insurgence continue today....

 

[Bailxtrader]

The US dollar surged on Tuesday, cementing its status as the safe-haven of choice amid renewed fears of military escalation in the Middle East. While ceasefire hopes have faded, market focus has shifted to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision. The combination of geopolitical stress, rising oil prices, and fading Fed cut bets lifted the greenback broadly — even against traditional safe-havens like the yen and Swiss franc. For AUD/USD and USD/CNH, the next move hinges on whether the Fed delivers a less-dovish surprise or softens its tone as economic cracks widen.

Fed Faces Dovish Pressure as US Data Disappoints​

That said, signs of a slowing US economy are increasingly apparent in the latest economic data. While the Federal Reserve’s dot plot could still support a rate cut in September — in line with current market pricing — I’m not leaning toward a dovish surprise just yet, even as cracks in the US economy continue to widen.

Core retail sales contracted -0.3% in May, missing its 0.2% estimate and April’s figure being downgraded to 0% from 0.1%.

Retail sales including volatile items fell -0.9% m/m, worse than the -0.5% expected and April’s figure was downgraded to -0.1% from 0.1%.

• Industrial production also fell -0.2% in May.

US Dollar at a Crossroads as AUD/USD and USD/CNH Await Breakout Direction​

With markets gripped by geopolitical risks and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy, the US dollar is approaching a pivotal level. Which way it breaks should have a direct impact on the Australian dollar’s ability to pull back or break higher. Though the depth of any move on AUD/USD is also likely to be governed by moves in USD/CNH.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis​

A 1.35% rally has unfolded on the US Dollar Index (DXY) since last week’s low, where support was once again found at the July 2023 volume point of control (VPOC). While a head and shoulders top had previously suggested a bearish continuation, that setup is increasingly questionable — as momentum should remain firmly negative after a neckline break. Instead, USD bulls are now eyeing a potential breakout above trend resistance.

 

[Bailxtrader]

Waiting for the AUD/USD to recede later this evening, on the back of a stronger USD. Its forms good, Double Tops Maybe? Hopefully it go short soon, but its full of curry, so I'm bit worried. Should reach its resistance soon?

 

[Bailxtrader]

Waiting for the AUD/USD to recede later this evening, on the back of a stronger USD. Its forms good, Double Tops Maybe? Hopefully it go short soon, but its full of curry, so I'm bit worried. Should reach its resistance soon?

View attachment 201872

AUD/USD traded higher last night, breaking though Resistance. To fall early this morning now siting in the middle of its closest range. Highs @0.65338, Lows @0.64663. Currently @0.65050.

Investing.com-- Most Asian currencies moved little on Wednesday as markets remained largely risk-averse as the Israel-Iran war raged on, while the dollar edged lower before the conclusion of a Federal Reserve meeting.
Regional markets were also grappling with uncertainty over U.S. trade policy, as an early-July deadline for President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs drew closer. Japanese trade data released on Wednesday underscored the impact of tariffs on the country’s economy.
The dollar was dented by a swathe of weak U.S. economic readings, which pushed up bets for a more dovish tilt from the Fed later in the day. This notion offered some relief to Asian currencies, although most units remained rangebound.

The dollar index and dollar index futures both fell about 0.1% in Asian trade, as markets awaited the conclusion of a Fed meeting later in the day.

The central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5%.
But traders were seen ramping up bets on more dovish signals from the Fed, especially after softer-than-expected retail sales and industrial production data on Tuesday pushed up concerns over a cooling U.S. economy.

Focus will now be chiefly on how many interest rate cuts Fed Chair Jerome Powell projects this year. Powell had flagged a much slower pace of rate cuts in 2025 after cutting rates by a cumulative 1% through 2024.
The dollar index and dollar index futures both fell about 0.1% in Asian trade, as markets awaited the conclusion of a Fed meeting later in the day.
The central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5%.
But traders were seen ramping up bets on more dovish signals from the Fed, especially after softer-than-expected retail sales and industrial production data on Tuesday pushed up concerns over a cooling U.S. economy.
Focus will now be chiefly on how many interest rate cuts Fed Chair Jerome Powell projects this year. Powell had flagged a much slower pace of rate cuts in 2025 after cutting rates by a cumulative 1% through 2024.

 

[Bailxtrader]

Noticed late into the session that AUD/USD chart above and below has bearish Divergence between the sell candles and the MACD Indicator forcing a sell signal last night, early morning. It appears the AUD wants to go on with it today.
Also speaks the USD resurgence, that I've been expecting...

US Dollar Outlook: Don’t Write Off the USD Just Yet​

Let’s take the US dollar as an example. The majority continue to write the USD off with fundamentally sound reasons, asset managers are their most bearish on the US dollar index since 2011, and traders are effectively short USD in aggregate near their most bearish levels since September. This alone does not guarantee a strong bullish reversal, but it certainly serves as a warning of one.



Moreover, price action on the USD Index and FX majors is sending clues of at least a near-term bounce. Whether it turns into a big bounce or a small one is likely in the hands of President Trump. Should trade deals be made, the dollar seems primed for a short-covering rally — and a deep correction in gold could follow. If trade talks drag on, perhaps only a minor technical bounce is on the cards.

US Dollar Index (USD) Technical Analysis​

The daily chart shows the US dollar remains in a clear downtrend, consistently respecting trend resistance since February. Earlier this week, I outlined a head and shoulders top pattern, which projects a downside target just below 96. But let’s consider an alternative scenario.

A textbook head and shoulders top should have seen prices break aggressively lower following the right shoulder (RS) and a decisive break of the neckline around 98.67. Instead, bearish volatility was almost non-existent around that neckline — and price is now attempting to use the December low as a support level. Furthermore, a small bullish doji has also formed at the December low, alongside a bullish divergence on the daily RSI (2).

USD Index: 4-Hour Chart​

Zooming into the 4-hour chart, we see a bullish pinbar accompanied by extremely high volume. Given the candle opened and closed around the same price despite a lower wick, it suggests there was significant buying pressure behind the bullish reversal. Notably, the candle also showed a high positive delta volume — meaning there were considerably more aggressive buyers than sellers. In other words, a ‘change of hands’ appears to have occurred, from bears to bulls.

Ultimately, I suspect at least a minor bounce is due. That doesn’t necessarily mean Thursday’s low (98.30) is the low, but any retracements towards it could offer counter-trend traders an opportunity to scale into the move with a wider stop — in hopes of catching a push higher towards ~99.40 (near the weekly VPOC and swing high). A break above that level brings the 100–100.44 zone into focus.

 

[Bailxtrader]

USD Interest Rate Call to keep on hold put pressure on the AUD, falling for most of the day, only to rise slightly this morning. I think the pressure is still on the AUD today, good to see how it pans out..

Dollar firms as Fed holds rates; Powell non-committal to future cuts ​

The dollar index and dollar index futures rose 0.2% each in Asian trade, extending overnight gains after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.5%, as expected.

While the Fed did maintain its projection for at least two more rate cuts in 2025, Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that any more cuts will be largely dependent on economic data.

Powell flagged persistent concerns over higher inflation due to Trump’s trade tariffs, and cut projections for rate cuts in 2026.

The Fed Chair’s comments saw markets dial down bets that U.S. interest rate cuts were imminent, which supported near-term buying into the greenback.

 

[Bailxtrader]

The AUD bounced higher yesterday morning after Thursday night lows stopping at support @0.64468. Only to be met by Resistance @0.64939 highs to a range of @0.64735 lows for all of the day Friday. Then last night after the footy it broke through support lows @0.64735 to break down lower and go short for the rest of the evening and this morning to close of the weeks trading at the months all time lows. As I have been expecting and T/A's have been calling for. I notice a pattern of trading is occurring, bouncing Highs during the day and reflecting Lows during the Evening ( OTC +10 ) Brisbane. I think the AUD want to go on with it and this Trend will continue into next week?

M15



H4

 

[Bailxtrader]

The AUD Just wants to fall, chasing highs of .655 it has been Demesa graded the pair are falling in Pattern and Trend. .64056 and falling with Vigar. I've been watching and trading strategy that it is a bear market. Looking for lows of .63610 by the end of the week, if not before hand.

M15




H4

 

[Bailxtrader]

It puzzles me why the US Dollar Index can do so poorly, and not put up much resistance. But yet the AUD/USD continues to go short. There's a bit more at play I think. Guess when you look at it, it's only the start of something big!

https://invst.ly/1b3buq

 

[Bailxtrader]

I got that last post wrong. Here's a real look at the Dollar Index. It all makes sense now the US Dollar Index is up and the AUD is down. My Internet must be slow?

 

[Bailxtrader]

I got that last post wrong. Here's a real look at the Dollar Index. It all makes sense now the US Dollar Index is up and the AUD is down. My Internet must be slow?

View attachment 202187

 

[Bailxtrader]

Running like clockwork OTC +10 Brisbane, AUD continues to go short. US Dollar Index has spiked, AUD looking for Support 0.63604 and beyond. I got a sell placed on top of earlier highs, where Resistance was met. This is turning into a trend, the AUD has no chance...



H4

 

[Bailxtrader]

Running like clockwork OTC +10 Brisbane, AUD continues to go short. US Dollar Index has spiked, AUD looking for Support 0.63604 and beyond. I got a sell placed on top of earlier highs, where Resistance was met. This is turning into a trend, the AUD has no chance...

View attachment 202189

H4

View attachment 202190

I stopped out of my sell order for a profit. US Doller index fell quite dramatically, to see the AUD bounce back into action, bypassing resistance .64483 sitting comfortably .64749. I think I'll wait for the dust to settle, hoping for the US Dollar Index regain ground and looking for the AUD to find support lows of.63604.

 

[Bailxtrader]

Things have changed with the AUD a bit of a correction unfolding with the US Dollar Index falling 3fold as it nears 52-week low of 97.307 currently sitting on 97.5500. the USD to be tested again today, what will the Dollar Index do pressures on.




M30

 

[Bailxtrader]

The US Dollar Index tried to bounce back, this morning but was met with Resistance as the Dollar Index slowly crawls down to 52 week lows. Pushing the AUD Up as it looks to break though present highs and break out, to escape it's present range? Or continue with the Range and go's south.



M15

 

[Bailxtrader]

Mixed emotions; Just when I figured the AUD was going to rise due to a poor performance from US Dollar Index, but it has levelled out since then to 0.9752 so the feelings are mutual. The AUD still in a tight range...


The US Dollar Index tried to bounce back, this morning but was met with Resistance as the Dollar Index slowly crawls down to 52 week lows. Pushing the AUD Up as it looks to break though present highs and break out, to escape it's present range? Or continue with the Range and go's south.

And there's this;

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar​

The question now is whether the Australian dollar will follow the New Zealand dollar. Given my core bias for a higher US dollar (potentially linked to TACO), I suspect it will.

AUD/USD has repeatedly struggled around 0.6550, and its rally from the v-bottom low has all but come to a stop. Like NZD/USD, bearish divergences have formed on the daily RSIs, and my bias is to fade into moves towards the cycle highs in anticipation of a move down to at least 64c, or the lows around 0.6357.

 

[Bailxtrader]

Hard to tell which way to go. With resilient USD pushing prices down and dovish US Dollar Index slowly crashing pushing prices up.
AUD/USD currently in a range between 0.65188 highs and 0.64837lows. Where it's been since late Tuesday and all-day Wednesday. After Tuesday highs. Waiting for a break later on this morning around 10am AEST...

M15

 

[qldfrog]

Was looking at AUD vs USD yesterday,
Not forex trading and week or month change, more where should I park some aud fir diversification and overseas move
We are in for a USD fall vs world currency, but is the AUD and its sad economy able to really follow the trend?
I so got the AUD vs:
USD

But also vs
SGD Singapore dollars i moved cash to recently

So while i have some exposure to USD via shares and options on the NYSE, and still dome USD savings and cash account, i think storing money in the SGD makes sense looking at the charts.
Hope it helps