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AUD/JPY

Discussion in 'Forex and Cryptocurrencies' started by forextrader168, Dec 15, 2013.

  1. forextrader168

    forextrader168

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    Hello Guys,
    Want to share my analysis with the community so every can learn from each other. Comments and discussions are welcome!:)

    AUDJPY Daily Outlook for 16th December, 2013 (Monday)
    AUDJPY Daily Outlook for 16th December, 2013 (Monday)


    Daily Chart
    AUDJPY D1 - 2013-12-15_16-18.jpg

    "Ended the Week Lower"
    Last week was a interesting one where we have fully retraced the previous week's gain. However good support is still at the 38.2% retrace of around 91.890. If we look at the indicators, and draw a trendline from the lows Friday's action has broke through that trendline.
    It will be an interesting week ahead and if i base my analysis purely on the daily chart, and because of the indicator trendline broken to the downside, it seems it likes to break the support and find the next support at 91.10 (50% retrace). (BUT PLEASE READ MY FORECAST ON THE HOURLY CHART)
    In a downward channel
    Stochastics Trendline broken

    Hourly Chart
    AUDJPY H1- 2013-12-15_16-18.jpg

    On Friday It traded pretty much in a range from Thursdays Europe and NY Session. It will be interesting what Monday open will give us.
    Traded in range of Thursdays European and NY session

    Below is a 4 hourly chart, where I have illustrated my forecast of this pair in the very near term (this week). If it goes to my forecast, then we are here for a harmonic trade of a bearish bat pattern.
    We are now on the C to D leg of the bat pattern
    AUDJPY H4 - Forecast bearish bat - 2013-12-15_16-18.jpg
    My Bias is on Monday we will open higher, and on a retest and hold of monday's daily pivot we can go long so we can ride the wave up to D





    Outlook Trade opportunity
    I believe there is a good possibility we are creating a bearish bat, and we are on the C to D leg.

    #1 If market tests Daily S1, Go long take partial profit at Daily Pivot, R1 and so on
    #2 If market open higher and Daily pivot holds, go long Take partial profit at R1

    Note - good money management required for this trade if you want to ride it up, For intraday traders, you could probably just take profit at the first reached pivot (approx 40-50pips profit)

    Risk Level Medium - High

    Tips -
    Always take note of any economical news event on our provided calender below
     
  2. forextrader168

    forextrader168

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    Hi Guys
    My setup yesterday got stopped out by a few pips because of the stop run from early asian session.
    However for those who were able to get in after that would have got around 20-30pips, if your holding your still safe as today our buy area is at yesterdays low / daily s1
    (pls visit my blog for more details)
    Cheers
    #Forex_Trader168 (twitter)

    AUDJPY H1 - 2013-12-17_10-20.jpg
     
  3. cogs

    cogs

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    Bit of a gamble at the moment with the lower volumes and up coming news events. You can see this in how the AUDDUSD is behaving.
    Just when a man has a bit of spare time to trade it turns a little ugly.
     
  4. >Apocalypto<

    >Apocalypto< 20.03.2012

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    GY was a real B%$ch yesterday... kept teasing long to range then it fell over... lost a fair bit of profit on that range my own fault for not waiting... caught a small piece of the sell off... but still down 60% on last months profits.
     
  5. ukulele

    ukulele

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    is anyone watching this at the moment? WTF????
    I don't know if it's the aussie but i suspect its the yen, is there someone making a speech at the moment?

    2:35pm bar high 86.003
    2:35pm bar low 84.069

    range = 193.4 pips?

    i just randomly signed into my account because I'm leaving to japan next week to see the exchange rate. Got in for a quickfire 1%...
     

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  6. captain black

    captain black

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  7. ukulele

    ukulele

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    Ahh, here it is

    Well, this is shaking things up: the Bank of Japan has introduced negative interest rates in an attempt to spark inflation.
    At the moment we're only seeing the headlines on Bloomberg, but we'll keep you updated.
    Japanese stocks jumped more than 1 per cent as trading resumed after the lunch break in Tokyo, swinging from a 0.4 per cent loss, while the US dollar shot up against the yen (see chart).


    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/m...uels-hopes-20160128-gmgj76.html#ixzz3ybOIITt4
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

    EDIT: beat me to it! Cheerio
     
  8. notting

    notting

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    Yep this is huge.

    Currency wars are well and truly on! Realistically it's no big deal, but from a market psychological point of view it's huge. The press will love it and go to town 'Currency War,' that will sell papers!!

    It's also a massive blow to China who were holding up the currency to save face as they try to sneak it down and this will catapult them in the direction they do not want to go!

    It also means the FED is going to find it even harder to raise again! Good for stocks (but not so much for Japanese bank stocks who will now have to pay to keep reserves) and commodities and AU. With expectations of Fed stepping back.
    But it's no big deal in real terms. Lets see if China uses it as an excuse to retaliate with similar action. Good for Gold should go crazy if that happens.
     
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