Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

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just wanted to check how aud is against usd in the last months.
well, the scenario is quite clear: medium term is still bearish and short term too.
In these days the pair is testing short term trendline (black one) for the third time, after a v-shape pattern. Moreover, the currency is facing an important area across 0,73-0,74: in fact, it has been paused a lot of times.
Maybe, a strong break of the short term trendline will let the pair run over to 0,74-0,7450 area where the medium term trendline is running.
As usual, the market will be the final judge...

cheers
 

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AUD/USD - up, down, turn it around?

What are peoples opinions on the AUD against the USD in the next few months? Some are saying a low of .50-.55 while others believe it will bounce back to .70-.75?

I hope it bounces back. :)
 
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Re: AUD/USD - up, down, turn it around?

Pure random guess.....

The AUD will continue to diminish for 6 months to say 57c....then gradually move up to over the next few years, eventually overtaking gaining parity on the back of the next China based commodity price boom.
 
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Never really paid much attention to currencies before as I don't trade fx, but looking at currency futures, interesting to see how the Euro, British Pound and Aussie seems to be in sync, and opposite with the Yen and US.

Good if planning a trip to Europe, perhaps, not so good if planning a trip to either Japan or the US. Perhaps not a trading or business perspective, but heck there is more to life.
 

Kauri

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may be a mug... as opposed to a cup.. ;)
butt... a dollar is a dollar... or was until this meltdown

Cheers
...........Kauri
 

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Kauri

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may be a mug... as opposed to a cup.. ;)
butt... a dollar is a dollar... or was until this meltdown

Cheers
...........Kauri

a bitt of a storm in the teacup..

Cheers
............Kauri
 

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Kauri

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a bitt of a storm in the teacup..

Cheers
............Kauri

as my old father used to say.... in one ear and out the other... :eek:

Cheers
..........Kauri
 

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When is it gonna fall off its perch Kauri, I reckon its about time it headed back down to 59, its at a significant point now.

Then again I have been waiting all afternoon :confused:
 

Kauri

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When is it gonna fall off its perch Kauri, I reckon its about time it headed back down to 59, its at a significant point now.

Then again I have been waiting all afternoon :confused:

my collideascope is mostly long... little ledgie forming... hope it doesn't morph into a wedgie... :eek: I'm just sitting back waiting for the market to tell me what it decides... currently.. I thunk..
Cheers
............Kauri
 

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Kauri

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my collideascope is mostly long... little ledgie forming... hope it doesn't morph into a wedgie... :eek: I'm just sitting back waiting for the market to tell me what it decides... currently.. I thunk..
Cheers
............Kauri

and a quick stop and reverse... will be wathig the short closely... for now anyways..

Cheers
............Kauri
 

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BentRod

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A gem of a trade that Cup budgie man.

nice. :)

Do you trade them often?

I can't say I have traded them.

O'neil likes em on the weeklies, that's all I know about the pattern.

Do they work well Intraday??

cheers mate
 

Kauri

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and a quick stop and reverse... will be wathig the short closely... for now anyways..

Cheers
............Kauri


gave some back... I'm happy with that... me an you and a dog named Boo.. living and a working on the lam...
....must be going Lobo..

Cheers
............Kauri
 

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Re: AUD/USD - up, down, turn it around?

What are peoples opinions on the AUD against the USD in the next few months? Some are saying a low of .50-.55 while others believe it will bounce back to .70-.75?

I hope it bounces back. :)

Here's one that The Age is quoting. Probably the same muppet who said that the AUD would hit parity with the USD sometime next year.


'The currency has dropped 31% since reaching a 25-year high of 98.49 US cents on July 16, sliding as prices of crude oil, gold and nickel declined. It reached 47.75 cents in April 2001, the lowest since it started trading freely in 1983.


"I can see it certainly dropping quite sharply from here," Carlin Doyle, a London-based currency strategist at State Street Global Markets said. The Australian dollar could fall "below the 40 cent level and I can see that happening in the next year or so," he added.'
 

Kauri

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The AUD/USD has been clobbered below 0.6750 in early Sydney by a large European bank. There isn"t any news to speak of, but the market is especially thin ahead of the end of month London fix later today when massive amounts in thin markets are going to have to change hands. The talk is that there will be very large USD buying flows against the EUR and AUD at the fix as portfolio managers rebalance for month-end.
The key event today for the AUD and all of the asset markets will be the BOJ decision later today. The market expects the BOJ to ease 25 BPS to 0.25% and if they don"t it would be poorly received by equity markets and put the AUD under heavy pressure again. If they do ease it should underpin equities and carry trade currencies even though the London Fix is likely to discourage any aggressive buying.

Cheers
.............Kauri
 
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The talk is that there will be very large USD buying flows against the EUR and AUD at the fix as portfolio managers rebalance for month-end.
I wonder how rebalancing works. I mean, if everyone waits until the very last day to rebalance, prices will certainly be unfavourable. If I were a portfolio manager I would have completed most of the rebalancing by now.
 

Whiskers

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Re: AUD/USD - up, down, turn it around?

Here's one that The Age is quoting. Probably the same muppet who said that the AUD would hit parity with the USD sometime next year.


'The currency has dropped 31% since reaching a 25-year high of 98.49 US cents on July 16, sliding as prices of crude oil, gold and nickel declined. It reached 47.75 cents in April 2001, the lowest since it started trading freely in 1983.


"I can see it certainly dropping quite sharply from here," Carlin Doyle, a London-based currency strategist at State Street Global Markets said. The Australian dollar could fall "below the 40 cent level and I can see that happening in the next year or so," he added.'

Well, for what it's worth, There's a good morning star on the AUD/USD.

Bottoms in! :hide:

I'm tipping .77 pretty soon to fill that gap.

I don't know if anyone noticed, but there was a little morning star that kicked off the reversal of the USDX higher a few months ago too.
 

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I am in for a little run... hopefully.

30 min chart.
 

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