AUD/USD

[Bailxtrader]

The AUD finally broke through Resistance, and looking for new highs for the month. Index down on a steep dive. Locking at price 65.280 at present and climbing...

H1

 

[Bailxtrader]

AUD bouncing back with vengeance these last couple of days. Now back into Highs 0.655, the US Dollar Index is still reseeding into 52 week lows. AUD pushing up to 52 week Highs, and it looks still forthcoming today....

H1




Index slowly creeping up, but I think it will fall short again given the conditions?

 

[Bailxtrader]

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels​

• AUD/USD rallies more than 1.1% into June open- testing technical resistance today
• Australian Dollar multi-week range breakout in focus heading into June– NFPs on tap
• Resistance 6495/97, 6550 (key), 6622– Support 6432/43, 6402, 6348/62 (key)

The Australian Dollar broke back above the 200-day moving average this week with AUD/USD testing resistance at the 65-handle today. Its decision time for the Aussie as the bulls threaten to breakout of a multi-month range in price. Battlelines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts heading into NFPs.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily​

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that AUD/USD was trading, “within the confines of a multi-week consolidation range and the immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly opening-range for guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6348 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6550 ultimately needed to mark resumption of the broader April rally.” Aussie attempted to breakout into the close of the month but failed at uptrend resistance with price unable to mark a daily close above range resistance. AUD/USD is testing this resistance zone again today and the focus is on a possible inflection off this zone in the days ahead as the bulls attempt to clear this month-long range in price.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min​

Bottom line: Aussie is attempting to mark a fresh yearly high-close today but still shy of uptrend resistance just higher. The immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly opening-range for guidance with the long-bias vulnerable into the upper parallel. From at trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6400 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the 6550 needed to fuel the next major leg of the April advance.

Keep in mind we get the release of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Friday with key inflation data slated for next week. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

 

[Bailxtrader]

The AUD riding high of late, staying on top of support levels, due to a weaker USD. 0.656525 you should recognise as a high that been around for almost 6 months as the AUD been ranging sideways. But how long will this last.
Don't read to much into it but as the USD struggles, they may be up for a trend reversal, pushing the AUD down. Although it would be good to see the AUD push higher, but given the market news on both sides of the fence, it's a bit mixed, with no real winner in site...

Investing.com -- The US dollar has experienced the worst start to a year since 1973, but analysis from Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) suggests the currency may see more limited downside in the second half of 2025.

According to BofA’s time zone framework analysis, while overall USD price action no longer correlates with Federal Reserve rate cut pricing, cumulative USD return during US trading hours still maintains a +71% correlation with Fed rates pricing in 2025.

The bank notes that unchanged Fed rates for the remainder of the year should moderately support the USD during US trading hours.

Asia-based investors have been the biggest USD sellers so far in 2025. However, a longer-term analysis reveals that USD price actions in Asian trading hours have flattened after cumulative long returns from the past two years unwound to neutral levels. BofA suggests these investors may wait for new bearish USD catalysts to form in other time zones before pushing the currency lower.

The dollar still has significant room to depreciate during European trading hours, but this would likely require global equity markets to outperform US equity for the rest of the year. Foreign investors now have less incentive to increase their FX hedge ratio on US-based assets following the year-to-date USD movement.

While global equities outperformed US markets in Q1 2025, the US regained leadership in Q2. BofA indicates that relative equity performance should be the focal point for global FX investors in the second half of 2025.

Cheeky News...

H4