"ROBIN HOOD STRATEGY"

[ShareSuccess]

12/5/25.....New Buy.....Fletcher Building Ltd (ASX: FBU) Fletcher Building Limited is one of the largest listed companies in New Zealand, with a market capitalisation of nearly NZ$4 billion. The company was split from Fletcher Challenge in 2001, formerly New Zealand's largest business and multinational......$3.15 AUD

I do Consider this stock to be trading at a Deep Discount & with interested rates coming down, there is going to be New building projects in the pipeline which should see some improvements on the outlook of Fletcher Building.

This is a Medium to long Term Trade & i can see Upside in the stock from it's current market price of 80%+ and as i say, Patience is the key in Waiting For "Mr Market" to Reward me in the Future should i be right in my assumptions

 

[ShareSuccess]

“If I ask you what’s the risk in investing, you would answer the risk of losing money. But there actually are two risks in investing: One is to lose money, and the other is to miss an opportunity.

You can eliminate either one, but you can’t eliminate both at the same time.”

-Howard Marks

 

[ShareSuccess]

When Buying New Stocks, i always say to Myself....... Expect the un-expected & you won't be disappointed!

When you Buy.....Guaranteed!....Will Go Down 10%

When you Sell......Guaranteed!....Will Go up 10%

I am yet to be Disappointed ha ha

 

[ducati916]

Annual Report:https://fletcherbuilding.com/assets/4-investor-centre/annual-reports/2024-annual-report.pdf

PDF attached below.

What exactly do you like about this company?

jog on
duc

 

[ShareSuccess]

View attachment 199771


Annual Report:https://fletcherbuilding.com/assets/4-investor-centre/annual-reports/2024-annual-report.pdf

PDF attached below.

What exactly do you like about this company?

jog on
duc

Not a Lot Mate!....I'm buying the stock based on interest Rates coming down which should spur on building Projects which hopefully will flow through to Fletcher in increased earnings over the medium to long term.

Give me your Honest Thoughts duc.....I can Handle it!

 

[divs4ever]

What exactly do you like about this company?

the probability there is more pain coming ( before any real recovery .. if there is one )

so i can try to dig my way out of the 45% paper loss i have here

NZ last i heard in still in recession ( and Australia is probably in one as well )

Australia has just had an election and voted for more of the same ( if we are really lucky )

about the only bright news if the FBU leadership is in some sort of transition , so maybe that and the next 'bail-out ' of Australasian housing trap , will get me into a profitable position

what i am circling is a little bit better price to get more FRI

 

[DaveTrade]

he probability there is more pain coming ( before any real recovery .. if there is one )

Hi @divs4ever , I've been focussed on the US market in which large funds have started buying into, demand is in control. My current view is a turn down coming soon, about 10% maybe, then a turn to the upside in the ballpark of 35-40%, and Australia will hopefully will follow a similar path.

 

[divs4ever]

Hi @divs4ever , I've been focussed on the US market in which large funds have started buying into, demand is in control. My current view is a turn down coming soon, about 10% maybe, then a turn to the upside in the ballpark of 35-40%, and Australia will hopefully will follow a similar path.

as i see it both Australia and US have an infrastructure problem ( getting services to new dwellings ) , NZ will have a capital injection problem , but these can be solved , the next issue is the capital needed to fix/build that essential infrastructure .. assuming automation does not replace the majority of the workforce ( and they no longer need to travel for employment purposes )

 

[ducati916]

Not a Lot Mate!....I'm buying the stock based on interest Rates coming down which should spur on building Projects which hopefully will flow through to Fletcher in increased earnings over the medium to long term.

Give me your Honest Thoughts duc.....I can Handle it!

I have no particular thoughts on FBU.

With all of your citations of more fundamentally based investors I thought that possibly you saw value in the stock based on a currently low end of range technical price combined with strong fundamentals.

But ok, you're just buying on the premise of interest rates falling going forward.

I'll have a read of the Report later and see what (if anything) jumps out at me.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Not a Lot Mate!....I'm buying the stock based on interest Rates coming down which should spur on building Projects which hopefully will flow through to Fletcher in increased earnings over the medium to long term.

Give me your Honest Thoughts duc.....I can Handle it!

Ok so I always run a Z score just as a quick heads up as to how the company is operating and is there any potential monkey business going on.


So the Z score:



Has a pretty decent track record.

So FBU's Z score:



So from scanning the financials last night quickly, the CEO either resigned or was sacked. There is an interim CEO. Never a good thing. Also the Board essentially cut all performance bonuses from the new CEO citing 'lack of time in the job'. Hmmm.

Now I'm interested.

I'll dig deeper.

jog on
duc

 

[finicky]

Greg Canavan still has a buy on FBU - reiterated in his p/f review last Tuesday. Thinks the worst is behind it although a fair bit of value has been destroyed in the business. Says N.Z operations showing signs of turnaround with interest rate cuts helping, being a rate sensitive building business. Might also see dividends restored which should stimulate some buying of the stock. He bought it a fair while back and is up 10%. Suspects rally over the next 3 - 12 months is the way of least resistance but don't expect the old highs anytime soon.
Fat Tail Investment Advisory

Not Held
Shied away from the plumbing failure issue and liability

 

[finicky]

Worth reading @Insert Name 'boots on the ground' comments on the FBU thread in June last year. Somehow I'd missed them.

Post #1
"Management was definitely the issue from the board down. Let too many experienced people leave & senior leadership seemed not to fully understand or ask the right questions about some chunky projects the were signing off on. I've watched them take one of their most successful building product business units & replace it with a lemon. In fact apart from a new building I don't think there was one aspect of the project that actually improved their situation. I wish I could say more, it's borderline criminal."

Post #2
"I am trying to make a decision on what to do with my shares. It's comical; I worked for them for over a decade and bought most of my shares at over three times what they are worth now. It's sad for all the long-term grafters in the place who believed in the business and invested back into it.

The situation FBU has gotten themselves into is appalling. Thinking back, I could pinpoint the exact time I should have sold.

Around 2021, FBU's intranet content became very "woke," heavily focusing on gender equality and LGBTQ+ issues. Every time I opened it to process leave or something similar, there would be articles on their latest woke initiative—such as rainbow-painted concrete mixers (an 8-10K waste of money), participation in the Hero Parade, and gay pride month breakfasts for businesses (costing $35-40 per head, I'd guess) along with the lost productivity from people standing around yapping about it for the morning.

At the time, I laughed about it with my direct team; it seemed like a huge distraction and waste of money and other resources. The FBU Corporate office seemed to have lost focus on their core activities. Instead of reading about achievements or milestones in construction, new technologies, or developments in manufacturing, we were inundated with these social initiatives. That shift in focus was odd for a construction and building materials business. Anyway, I see there are now more articles to read, and the shares are still dropping."

 

[DaveTrade]

From a technical standpoint this stock is currently moving down strongly within a sideways channel, if intending to buy it would be wise to have the confirmation of a strong breakout from the channel. The large volume spikes do indicate fund buying of this stock.

 

[ShareSuccess]

Thanks for your Thoughts Guy's Very Much appreciated & taken on Board!

 

[ShareSuccess]

12/5/25.....New buy.....TPG Telecom (ASX: TPG) TPG is an Australian internet service provider that specialises in consumer and business internet services as well as mobile telephone services. As of August 2015, TPG is the second-largest internet service provider in Australia and is the largest mobile virtual network operator......$5.26 AUD

I do Believe this stock is trading at a discount & i can see 15%+ Upside from it's current Market price......Patience is the Key to waiting for "Mister Market" to Determine if i am right & reward me for my Patience!

*********************************************************************************************************************

Sorry guy's!......I've decided to Record my Buy's, Sells & Portfolio & Thoughts on the one Thread as what i've recently Done With 2 threads is Not only Confusing for all of you, but is also Confusing to me & driving Me Mad!!!!!

I'm Going to Keep The "ROBIN HOOD"Thread Going Because i Love the Notion of "Robbing The Rich to give to the Poor" ha ha

Question:.....Who do i Contact to Get the "Fast Food" Thread Removed....Sean or Joe blow?

Thank You!

 

[farmerge]

12/5/25.....New buy.....TPG Telecom (ASX: TPG) TPG is an Australian internet service provider that specialises in consumer and business internet services as well as mobile telephone services. As of August 2015, TPG is the second-largest internet service provider in Australia and is the largest mobile virtual network operator......$5.26 AUD

I do Believe this stock is trading at a discount & i can see 15%+ Upside from it's current Market price......Patience is the Key to waiting for "Mister Market" to Determine if i am right & reward me for my Patience!

*********************************************************************************************************************

Sorry guy's!......I've decided to Record my Buy's, Sells & Portfolio & Thoughts on the one Thread as what i've recently Done With 2 threads is Not only Confusing for all of you, but is also Confusing to me & driving Me Mad!!!!!

I'm Going to Keep The "ROBIN HOOD"Thread Going Because i Love the Notion of "Robbing The Rich to give to the Poor" ha ha

Question:.....Who do i Contact to Get the "Fast Food" Thread Removed....Sean or Joe blow?

Thank You!

try Joe

 

[Dora Kent]

It was interesting that when the producers of "Robin of Sherwood" found that their original actor, Michael Praed left due to contractual obligations, their strategy was to replace him with Sean Connery's son, Jason, which proved a success for the series.
Key to the success was also the atmospheric filming combined with the soundtrack by Gaelic superstars Clannad.

 

[ShareSuccess]

It was interesting that when the producers of "Robin of Sherwood" found that their original actor, Michael Praed left due to contractual obligations, their strategy was to replace him with Sean Connery's son, Jason, which proved a success for the series.
Key to the success was also the atmospheric filming combined with the soundtrack by Gaelic superstars Clannad.

Thank You Dora.....We Learn something New every day!

 

[ShareSuccess]

I am Grateful for all the Wisdom & knowledge that i Gain from others for this can only benefit me in my future endeavor's Going Forward, So thank You to all who Post here!

 

[ShareSuccess]

“Most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had. If you wait for 90%, in most cases, you’re probably being slow. Plus, either way, you need to be good at quickly recognizing and correcting bad decisions. If you’re good at course correcting, being wrong may be less costly than you think, whereas being slow is going to be expensive for sure.”

– Jeff Bezos