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All trading needs to cease for 14 days prior to Monday open in Sydney

Discussion in 'Business, Investment and Economics' started by kahuna1, Mar 21, 2020.

  1. kahuna1

    kahuna1

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    Markets should PAUSE and shut down.

    Howdy,

    Having been around for a while, and a fossil in many ways, over the past 37 years involved in markets and most currencies, bonds, equities and commodities at various times, not much is new.

    Famous last words. Often things I know are worthless or worth 1% of the heights they reach is not uncommon. Conversely, in times of panic and this time terror, the opposite occurs. People, seeing 50% of value lost illogically panic and sell. Other times when its a worthless asset the stop loss is the correct action to preserve capital.

    Right now, either society ends, markets and economies crumble or they DO NOT.

    The Billy Joel song, as a former head of trading for one of the worlds largest banks “I go to Extremes” springs to mind at times like this. The words, “so high and so low, with no in between” is so true of most activities on markets today where idiot savant trading dominates.

    I became insane, with long intervals of horrible sanity.”
    ― Edgar Allan Poe

    The CASE and precedent for hitting the pause button on all trading and equity markets is CLEAR.

    ALL TRADING OF EQUITES AND DERIVATIVES, Futures. options and others in G20 Markets needs to cease totally prior to Sydney opening and USA market futures opening Monday Morning.

    An opinion, but actually a no brainier. As one of few with 35 plus years experience still active in most markets from currencies to bonds and equities to commodities, to see for instance a 10% range in 8 hours on an equity Index USA trading representing 20 trillion or so, is and at best alarming.

    Markets have stopped and all trading in Equities, derivatives and futures, options paused post 9/11 . It did so to stop irrational fear. IT also paused for some time after the Bombing of Pearl Harbour late 1941.

    This time. It should not even BE a question.

    USA sadly dropped the ball declaring the virus defeated at 15 cases. Denied it would hit them due to USA being, well, better or the best in the world is delusional in the extreme.

    USA did NOT test in any significant numbers even till early March 2020. CDCC reported a mere 8,000 samples or less, and each sample being 2-3 per person its likely a mere 2,000 actual people were tested up till 10 days ago.

    To ramp up to say EU test levels, takes time. CDC produces daily totals and these show snails pace verses what to reach say the 10,000 a day a nation less than 10% the size USA is appears where they are NOW.

    Cases have risen, and PANIC … is not even close to what is about to occur.

    USA as I type is 19,700 cases for 329 million people. Its testing at about 10% the level it needs to for it to identify those infected and isolate them.

    USA equity futures open at 9 am Monday morning if allowed. They have limits at 5% where trading pauses in overnight trading, then at 13% and then at 20% where all trading for a day ceases.

    It is sadly and without much doubt, that the reported cases in the USA rise dramatically even by Monday morning and it opens LIMIT down 5%, when trading resumes at 9.30 am NY time or about then it opens LOCKED limit down 13% and when it resumes after a pause, likely it sadly hits 20% down and all trading ceases. NO actual trades will occur in reality. It will go locked limit …



    Would it not be prudent to HIT pause …. over illogical, if not idiotic fear ? Prior to this occurring and if allowed, its possible to do the same thing the next day.

    Essentially end of everything. Possibly forever for some companies in the panic. They literally cease to exist as idiotic conditions exist.

    Irrational fear, in fact, hysteria that has replaced denial is virtually guaranteed.

    Its actually not unexpected. It seems they are in threat, their very lives according to the doomsday preppers society.


    There is HOPE …

    This FEAR, is NOT logical. Whilst understandable as a threat to your life, all be it minor if precautions are taken, THIS WILL PASS.

    Comparing it to Spanish flu where even oxygen in hospital was not available nor ventilators is, well … absurd. Penicillin not invented or in use for 25 years to stave off infections ….

    Whilst if NOT stopped spreading, CV19, the virus can be if allowed and not controlled, deadly. We KNOW what to DO.

    PAUSE … deep breath.

    This is one Tracker …. Johns Hopkins …



    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


    And this another,

    https://ncov2019.live/


    Now after a lot of deep breathing, lets have a look.

    China …. 80,000 cases … sadly 3,200 deaths and still some serious cases, 75,000 out of 80,000 cases, CURED or sadly they passed away.



    Virtually NO new cases for a nation of 1.3 billion people.


    This will of course matter bugger all for the MAYHEM about to hit.

    USA and its leadership, which has 33% with pathetic health-cover or NONE will be the focus of the next weeks. USA USA USA …


    So whilst it took TIME for China to attack the virus, massive testing and isolation/ social distancing WORKS.

    Again likely forgotten in the next 2-3 weeks as the financial markets implode as the USA, as it always does, believes its the centre of the Universe.



    Lets go to Hong Kong, hit by SARs MERs Avian Flu and Swine Flue issues in the past, with 7 million plus and in close proximity to China, its had a mere 256 cases identified.

    Are you getting any sanity back into your perspective ?

    DOES … now alerted to the threat, social distancing WORK ?
    Of course.

    Talk of all activity ceasing forever ? A common topic of the media. Did it happen in post 2003 Sars era ? Or other pandemics ? OF course not stupid.

    It will NOT stop what will be likely an implosion IF ALLOWED … markets to open Monday.


    USA will and is likely to go troppo.

    Its sad numbers, eventually assured with extreme respect and regret to rise and rise till testing reaches around 10 times the current levels at say 100,000 plus tests a day.

    Time and time again, idiotic if NOT absurd in the extreme on one side of ignoring a virus replaced with, which is normal doomsday preppers and idiots who have predicted the end of the world time and time again. The weird fascination I have for those shows and low tolerance for their reasoning is now replaced by, a real life event, that, well, if you DONT social distance or ignore a bloody virus that spreads, STUPID people prevail.

    Deep breath. If someone comes inside your NOW personal space of 1.5 metres, for NOW, they are to be sprayed with bleach in the face to stop them.

    All this aside, the absurdity of what is about to occur and USA is going to go from a slight unease and in some cases terror to total mayhem in the coming week. All of it based, upon little logic.

    If sadly the USA hits 100,000 cases identified its a tragedy, much like Italy which is 25% the population and has hit 47,000 cases. Of course one can only wish it was not so and express our deepest sympathies for those lost and well wishes and prayers for those still fighting it.

    We, as a species, as opposed to looking with some cynicism via USA media and cable news as the Chinese built hospitals and enforce quarantine and massive testing, many nations, ones already well versed in previous virus events did much the same.



    Singapore revealed how far it could track visitors and citizens and anyone, anywhere, via CCTV and mobile signal was identified, read the riot act quarantined and locked away in threat of massive fines and jail and they had, 385 cases despite being a travel hub with about of 5 million locals. I wish, USA had similar outcomes and being 60 times the size, the 20,000 mark will be passed and exceeded in hours.

    IT WORKS …. Social distancing.


    All forgotten.

    MARKETS must close and SHOULD not open Monday.


    Predicting LOGIC … I suspect NO trading actually occurs in USA markets EVEN if they remain OPEN …. it locks LIMIT down at 5% …. Trading stops … no trades actually occur … between zero and down 5% … trading resumes and it LOCKS limit 13% .. DOWN … no trading occurs between 5% down and 13% down and reopens after a pause and likely 30,000 USA CV19 cases identified and all sanity and logic left in dust after some, with margin, loose everything and any exit NEEDED …. so the 20% limit down … cascaded into with NO real trading or exit seen. Repeat the next day ….

    I will go beyond this. Stupidity and non factual events or actions have one thing that cures them. TIME or Scientific evidence and logic.

    Obviously in panic, we ignore … the latter.

    CURES, Vaccines and ANTI Viral Agents.



    A cure, or treatments, some seem to work and some do not.

    Why say Italy has been hit so hard, until scientific data and peer reviewed factual numbers are presented, speculation is the only observation. Sadly, kissing on the cheek on greeting and leaving of friends, not a good outcome and possibly why the initial viral load seems so high along with the spread.

    Vaccines are great.

    Right now, we NEVER have cured any virus or EVER produced a vaccine.

    No Smallpox …. was never defeated.

    Polio

    Hepatitis C

    Chicken pox

    the list goes ON and on.



    Nope we are never ever going to create a vaccine or so it seems.

    How astoundingly stupid and absurd.

    A vaccine works one hopes protects at close to 100% of the time and sometimes lower, but it stops the spread and human to human transmission. It also lowers the severity of the the thing in the case of the Flu if you get a different strain you will likely get it less severe.

    Suggesting even with a straight face that a vaccine will not be developed is absurd. INSANE and in the Swine flu version it took some time to identify and map the thing, 10 times as long as it did in 2020, and when deployed it took a mere 4 months with technology to test and wheel out a vaccine. That was 2009. Not with double if not triple the technology and this time being conservative 10 times as many resources thrown at the task.

    Do you really think, whilst CV19 related to MERS and SARS not swine flu, that it will take some time beyond 12 months ? It feels that way listening to some idiots they wheel out.


    TIME will not be kind to these types.

    Social distancing and isolation WORKS all by itself. Let alone a vaccine with 95-99.99% effectiveness and the Chinese with no reason to lie, and every reason NOT to, say they have one almost ready, limited testing and they have 9 at least they have been testing, ready if needed April.


    Add to this 3 if not 5 others in very early stages testing a vaccine, IF NEEDED … which with my new personal space and not kissing random girls who beg me walking down the street, I have to say no for now !!

    Whilst a lot of rubbish has prevailed via various media outlets. It is 2020.

    NOT 1920.

    That's a vaccine.

    ANTI VIRAL

    An Anti Viral is something given to lessen the severity of say Flu such as Tami Flu and its very big brother one gets in hospital which dumb it down in most cases.

    NEW Flu and CV19 … we had and have no natural immunity unless your one of the very few who got SARs or MERS and MAY have some limited immunity one might expect to CV19 which is 85% of the same type of thing.

    Well …. we humans, in 2020, have actually a long list of things for other viral infections. Anti viral agents, if they get out of hand. Some for bloody infections that actually are also very good at limiting and in some cases totally eradicating a virus if not putting it into suspended animation.

    Cervical cancer, eventually, a virus hopefully will be a thing of the past. But a thing like Hepatitis C, HCV is a virus which can be eradicated in 2020. HIV a death sentence in 2020, well, suspended animation and the PREP that limits spread WORKS.

    One and on one could go.

    I noted, Japanese trug with some testing in China seems to work with CV19. So too a malaria drug in combination with a common penicillin works.



    Astounding and encouraging.



    Extremely. In the meantime, USA and doom and gloom types will prevail.

    Here is a decent U tube



    It missed many of the things that appear to hold promise and astoundingly quickly. I personally was not expecting any Anti Viral till after a vaccine which given the scope, and 20 massive drug makers in the vaccine side and some with multiple teams for the bigger ones working on a vaccine, its more than 30 working that side and if anything, 100 or more working on existing anti viral agents or new ones to slow the severity down.


    Just a few links

    Decent up to date as of now
    https://www.drugs.com/condition/covid-19.html


    Possible … but early stages …
    https://observer.com/2020/02/coronavirus-convid-19-stock-gilead-sciences-drug-testing/

    A few more with promise

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-...drugs-show-efficacy-against-coronavirus-67052

    All this …

    sadly likely forgotten in the mayhem if MONDAY trading resumes.

    Myopic self interested focus on USA totals infected and a real fear, for ones well being and this has crossed and will cross into hysteria.

    Australia, CAN and should act alone as should EU markets should USA not.


    If you have read this far, and I am sure some will disagree, some with vigour.

    I am merely a person who has faced this type of event, all be it not the same, but not unlike where fear and logic needs time to take hold.

    Interviewing a cafe owner who YES needs help as others hit initially, and government SHOULD act and not be stingy with 5% of GDP directly focused not a mere 1% Australia has seen.

    Most say Cafe's have seasonal periods and if 3 weeks of 10% customers, in and when we have it contained, well identified, and virtually no new cases LIKE Hong Kong, trade will resume, not at 100% but 50% in a few weeks, then at 75% in 8 weeks. Some things, like airlines, and confidence have taken a hit, but if your suggesting the end of the world, again, we may change, learn a lesson and do things like being more prepared and social norms more careful, life WILL go on. Or for doomsday preppers gulping their cordial down now … it ends.

    We are an island and most nations the same. Whilst tourism takes a hit, and reality and short term say 3 month impact occur, we have 10 million plus traveling overseas a year and a mere 8.5 million visitors. Things will return to some normality with I suspect more domestic tourism and less visitors when our borders open again.

    Obviously, I have NO idea how this unfolds. I do hold hope and the fact that governments NEED to step in and fill the gaps for a while is astounding our Banks basically gave up 25% likely of their profits …. PRIOR to our bloody government acting is a disgrace. We have been running one of the tightest fiscal policies globally of any nation. NOT just balancing a budget but a surplus was to occur 2020. Obviously not now. Our debt to GDP ratio and NET debt to GDP ratio is astoundingly low lowest in G20 or close to it ?

    WAKE UP you DRONGOS in charge. If your wrong and go to 5% of GDP stimulus pre Monday and even 10% supporting retailers and small business, casual workers, HUMANS … that's WHY … you saved. That virtually NO payments have eventuated to business from Bushfire support to date, given nearly 3 months have passed is pathetic.

    If global markets DO NOT CLOSE …. and the USA do not see need, it will cause NO HARM … it will likely reduce it. I have no vested interest other than being long equities, and if the ones I own. Top20 ones, fall, so to will our nation and species.


    CLOSE the BLOODY EXCHANGES please for 7 days or 14 days. Get your finger out DRONGO and announce something. ANYTHING …. NOW ….

    Kind regards and apologies, a prayers and for those impacted and sick. I hope they find some magic combination that works immediately.

    Of course, likely …. totally wrong, its a bad dream.
    RBA hopefully takes charge and they ... read the riot act.

    take care

    Mark Kahuna.

    P.S maybe I rush out and buy mince, forgetting Australia exports 4 times as much as it consumes and we are all becoming cave people ?
     

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  2. basilio

    basilio

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    Less is more ?o_O
     
  3. kahuna1

    kahuna1

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    More is less ....
     
  4. matty77

    matty77

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    NO.

    Then all the traders dont have a job all of a sudden.

    Then the market opens in 4 weeks, when the Corona is much worse and drops 60% in a day.

    Let it trade up and down, not much else you can do.
     
  5. kahuna1

    kahuna1

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    Trading ...

    will be non existent in USA equities I strongly suspect .... if you read. It will open .... limit down open again limit down and possibly ... via other factors hit limit down without trading at all.

    What will happen ... will occur.
    Take a spoon of cement ... toughen up and the RBA whom I respect immensely for their guidance and actions over the past 38 years, will likely already be planning. Of not ...

    welcome to hell !! ALL HELL will break out. Markets will implode and cascade into mayhem that say since Phillip is old enough, 1987..... RBA acted and well markets ignored all efforts for weeks. Instead of cash rates going down as they swamped the market and say 3 month bills falling as well ... they ROSE.

    As a very senior trader, of several institutions and some of our largest, I say STUFF traders over having people served cool aid. RBA provides market stability and ... well USA will have a tantrum if its stupid enough to open even the first session ...

    As someone around for all the greatest hits ... of the past 37 years, this one ... has tunes from a few that only fossils remember. Our guidance or knowledge or wisdom scoffed at mostly.

    Time will tell. Why douse yourself in petrol when a mere band aid will work ?
     
  6. banco

    banco

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    So you are going to turn supposedly liquid assets into iliquid assets? Have you considered what might be the longer term implications of that?

    After 14 days lots of people sell as they aren't going to risk getting locked out of selling again.
     
  7. Dona Ferentes

    Dona Ferentes

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  8. kid hustlr

    kid hustlr

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    It goes against all I believe in but I actually agree they should close. I'm bias I hold shares in my super and some in my PA but at some point keeping a free market system can actually do more harm than good.
     
  9. kahuna1

    kahuna1

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    I never ever get anything wrong. Trump ,,,,,

    Obviously .... things change. I am amused about the threat via lamington eating verses actual threats.
    With 25 million people .... 1,000 infected sadly, possibly 30 ? being fatalities .... Lamingtons still deadly but CZV 19 .... at 3% of 25,000 chances, well ... still a a little over a million to one with containment.

    Meanwhile, back at the ranch .... every shadow ... if one were to exit, we would get no where.
    Is it logical to say have a decent company unlikely to be hit at 60% its Jan 28 prices ? Or at 50% or say 33% ?

    Or on Monday at 20% ?

    Pass the lamingtons !! What is the total Chinese infections out of 1.3 billion ? is it 80 k .... is that 1% 0.1% or 0.006%. That is of getting it ... if sadly 1 in a million were to pass away, well that's ... about 33% of what occurred so 3 chances in a million ... LESS for most others.

    Ahh ... pause ... deep breaths and possibly some sanity will prevail. As to closing clearly non liquid and illogical markets is what central banks DO. It is one of their primary roles !! STABILITY.

    Those Lamingtons are delicious.
     
  10. wayneL

    wayneL Rotaredom

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    F**" that.

    Free markets with reasonable circuit breakers as exists now.

    Price Discovery, bro.

    Otherwise we descend into fascism... Not the historical accusations but actual fair dinkum real fascism
     
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  11. frugal.rock

    frugal.rock "Time weight's on man"

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    Was reminded of this...
     
  12. kahuna1

    kahuna1

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    NONE exist for Australian markets other than the RBA stepping in and the ASX and SFE being closed via arrangement. The limits you speak of DO NOT EXIST in Australia ... other than in you mind.

    APRA I believe takes the lead from the RBA with ASX which now runs SFE ... ACTS at their pleasure.
     
  13. kahuna1

    kahuna1

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    PS ...

    In case you missed it ... USA fell 10% in 8 hours till 4 pm NY time ... and its cases CV19 as of time of close were 16,000 which were 19,600- as the West coast and LA finished their day. so a rise of 20% POST ... close USA let alone ... well a dramatic rise over the week as they step up testing.

    By Monday 9 am Sydney time ? I hope its over, but sadly it is not.
    When I believe USA futures open if allowed ? A mere 20% rise post close replaced with testing over the weekend and it, well being somewhat higher.

    Back We shall see. I have made my case. For all that its worth.

    Not fussed either way and whilst ... as always buying too early ... have lots more ammo for stupidity if its going to be the order of the day and coming weeks.
     
  14. wayneL

    wayneL Rotaredom

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    Lack of true price discovery thus far for the last 20 years has landed us and position we are in.

    Let the cards for were they will and we can build a real economy here on out.

    Government manipulation via closing markets *etc* will only perpetuate the financial toxicity.
     
  15. kahuna1

    kahuna1

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    Just to correct an error ....
    I relied upon someone else ... which is a mistake there have been around 40 total shutdowns of the USA exchanges and ...

    New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) closed at
    the outbreak of World War I. Exchange officials maintained that the threat of
    European liquidation of US securities justified a suspension in trading as a
    circuit-breaker. However, the exchange remained shuttered for more than four
    months, from July 31, 1914 to December 12, 1914.

    Other reasons 9/11 was till it opened on the 16th ? ... a few days ... various other things from blizzards to obscure reasons ... to blackouts and once via Presidential order I believe in 1969. Something landed on the moon. Hurricanes ... and storms spring to mind as well. In 2010 ... a flash crash or have you forgotten ?

    An aside. But ... well the WW2 thing was actually WW1 ... and the trading event was not stopped for days but MONTHS. USA media even normally very factual sources, not to be relied upon. My mistake.

    Lamingtons still working ?
     
  16. frugal.rock

    frugal.rock "Time weight's on man"

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    Yep, close the markets.
    3 months ought to do it.
    On second thoughts, 6 months.
    Clean out ALL the deadwood...

    My portfolio is now ready to sit for 12 months. Stuff everyone else, right?

    F.Rock
     
  17. kahuna1

    kahuna1

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    Actually shared my own position ... to some extent.

    My self interest is irrelevant. I am not about to sell and will only add if we go lower. NO leverage, no margin and lots of cash.

    Honestly would prefer well thought out actions and I am sure the RBA with Treasury and APRA and ASIC watching closely and likely very ahead of any mere mortals thoughts like myself.

    I would be surprised, if they did not act prior to opening. Not protecting their interests and to suggest so would be absurd. Their sole focus is stability in times of excessive volatility. Liquidity when there is NONE and in say the case of a currency run or bond run, they step in. No different if they act this time. Suspect they will. Hope they will. I have no desire to see what I suspect, with cause will occur.

    They MAY of course see this differently and likely will. If it takes the USA going down 20% in a day to spark some action and sheer mayhem, so be it.

    I take no pleasure in that or desire to see it.
     
  18. Smurf1976

    Smurf1976

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    The only reason they'll close the market is if doing so enables someone very big to profit from doing so.

    That will, of course, be at the expense of ordinary people who find themselves trapped and then when the market reopens their money's largely gone.

    Closing our eyes, or the markets, won't make this problem go away and it won't change the reality that we've got a seriously distorted economy. :2twocents
     
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  19. Dona Ferentes

    Dona Ferentes

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    It's the credit markets that are scary.

    And 8 X the size of equity.
     
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  20. kahuna1

    kahuna1

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    Opinions .. of course vary.

    Please just read the links and research provided and if your seriously suggesting no cure or vaccine or anti viral works right NOW or social distancing does not STOP spread from say 2.5 to 0.25 ... and spread is halted, identified via testing ... and isolation. Well ... science is not a strong point.

    Just use the links and links within links as provided and see if AIDS is a threat still or a vaccine exists for Ebola or Chicken pox or a list of 20 other things.

    Clearly in your universe a cure does not exist and its the end of the world forever and what say Singapore did post MERS and SARS and Swine flu ... did not occur.

    Take care
     
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