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EUR/USD

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The EURUSD confirmed a mixed closing last night managing however to remain above the 1,10 level. The pair is still interior the negative outside day with 1,1110 – 1,0885 still the levels to follow. Only a daily closing above 1,1110 will support higher levels.
However, while below the 200 days line at 1,1111 the pair will remain under pressure!!
The indicators of the daily chart are still well negative for now while those of the s/t charts are instead still showing a mixed picture supporting further consolidation/ correction. Only an hourly closing above 1,1075 will favour a higher retracement suggesting a 1,11 overshooting!!
I stay still on the sideline waiting for higher levels to sell!!
 
450 pip day bar so far. Must be some sort of record.
 
My IG Markets Eur/Usd is quoting much lower than the currency futures...is this a normal thing?
 

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Fundamental Analysis: February 15

A down fall of stock markets is an aftermath of concerns about the global economic outlook which also caused the US dollar to be under pressure last Friday. The demand for the yen and the euro heightened. And because of the celebration of Chinese New Year, the Chinese market was closed.

The Japanese Finance Minister enlightened the investors that the fleet growth of Japanese yen could be a factor of the regulator's mediation. If there's a need to restrict the yen's growth, the bank will take all the necessary measures to make this happen. The exchange rate has been lately demonstrating quite sharp inconsistency that vary from the BoJ's financial policy, the Finance Minister stated.

The Gross Domestic Product of the Eurozone (q/) stayed at the same level of 0.3%, as claimed by the Eurostat.

On Friday, the US retail sales forecast for January was issued. The report was at 0.1%, the index occurred at 0.2%. In the initial estimate, the Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index for February was anticipated to increase by 92.6 from 92.0 in January. The index occurred at 90.7, much lesser than it was expected.

 
Hi.do you know any group in telegram messenger or whatsup or android about forex?
 
Fade the morning trend anyone?
 

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CanOz said:
Fade the morning trend anyone?
Click to expand...

You would need to make sure you could actually keep trading it through that three year period in the middle where it did noting. Although as I understand it, you're trading a portfolio of different strategies. That would make it much easier to handle. You might not mind if one strategy goes sideways for a while, so long as it's not actually losing you money.

Nice work though, I've seen that sexy DAX curve in the other thread too. Looks like it's all coming together for you. Great to see.
 

Thanks wolf, that euro system is unfiltered and as quant mentioned to me today, a volatility filter a larger time frame would likely help. These recent tests are from strategies just back from my coder, so very early stages of development.

Yeah, lots of work on lots of old ideas. It's worth it though to come up with something that you can't just optimise to death...!
 
I feel it's only a matter of time.

The grind down of the USD seems to be bouncing the EUR off the 1.15 ceiling. HK session has just attempted to put in a top

Thought I might add, this pair has unfinished business down at 1.08.
 

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Be interesting to see if this breaks. It appears most pairs have settled in short term middle range waiting on Trumps trade deal with china, not that I believe news moves FX, but fundamentals short term should show up on this pair also.
If the EUR breaks to the up side first target will be hidden gap fill, then it will be targeting 1.16 IMO, as there are orders up there still waiting to be closed. It is easy to see now the HK asian top yesterday was false, with their orders yet to be closed.
This pair has been a pig to trade IMO (again), but I stand ready to pounce either way.
 

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Hidden gap filled, another created and heading for 1.16 target with new buyers coming in, and maybe, just maybe the completion of hidden gap fill 1.16180 - 1.16375.
At least it's out of the ugly range, still no incentive for trading either way.
 

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cogs said:
Hidden gap filled, another created and heading for 1.16 target with new buyers coming in, and maybe, just maybe the completion of hidden gap fill 1.16180 - 1.16375.
At least it's out of the ugly range, still no incentive for trading either way.
Click to expand...

Been waiting for that range to be taken out, finally.
 
My thoughts for tonight and/or early next week.
After the Asian short squeeze up today we may see more hidden gap retrace down then onward and upward to close out positions from London US long squeeze.
 

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First leg played out as expected. New hidden gap opened up for the fade upward to begin early next week.

But who bloody knows what Brexit is going to do and how it will affect this pair. The Asian session seems to well situated for big fades at the moment.

Still open positions to be closed out up to 1.15680.
I still think this pair is filling positions medium term for a larger move down.

 
EURUSD POTENTIALS SHORT-TERM DOWN IN THE MIDDLE TO STRENGTHEN US DOLLARS

The movement of EURUSD has a chance to move down in the short term as the dollar strengthens after the release of a number of US economic data that looks optimistic.

Today the focus of investors will be on a number of manufacturing and service index reports starting from France at 15:15 WIB, Germany at 15:30 WIB and Euro zone at 16:00 WIB for indications of the economic health of the main economies in the bloc.

Support levels: 1.1340 - 1.1300 - 1.1240
Resistance level: 1.1400 - 1.1440 - 1.1500
 
EURUSD FURTHER Down TO 1.1301 USAI NATURAL GERMAN MANUFACTURING PMI CONTRACT THERE


The EURUSD currency pair fell sharply after the German flash manufacturing PMI data in March which was far below estimates while marking a three-month consecutive contraction.

Data recently released showed the March German flash manufacturing PMI fell to 44.7, while predictions said at 48 and data in the previous month were 47.6. The contraction in the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone's largest economy has started since January, when it was at 49.9. In December last year German manufacturing was still experiencing expansion, precisely at number 51.5. Number 50 is a limit to determine whether manufacturing activity experiences expansion or contraction.

This data confirms that the slowdown in the Eurozone is increasingly becoming and as a result of the US-China trade war. This economic slowdown was feared by the European Central Bank (ECB) so that the ECB issued a soft loan policy to banks to be channeled to the public.

EURUSD dropped sharply from 1.1386 to 1.1295 in the last hour before then turning to 1.1301, or down 0.61 percent, equivalent to 70 pips from the close of the New York session last night.
 
Few bids come today, still untradable IMO until a bounce back up to 12.5 or 13.3 ish. long term target for me is still 1.075 ish.



With USDCHF about to hit some resistance (as much as I hate to use that word) I recon this should get sorted with NFP end of week.

 
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