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EUR/USD

Discussion in 'Forex and Cryptocurrencies' started by SeM0s, May 12, 2011.

  1. SeM0s

    SeM0s

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    EUR/USD

    This week we have two likely opposite scenarios in this pair.

    Favored Count

    The image presented below points towards the end of the downwards blood bath and resumption of the bullish trend. According to this assessment it seems that the move ending at May 09, 2011 (low -1.4255) was most likely the end of the 4th wave of this ongoing C or 3rd wave up. This downward 4th wave compliments the typical nature of 4th waves, such as ending very close to the previous iv wave of the 3rd wave, breaching the lower channel line (marked by joining the highs of wave 1 and wave 3 and then placing on wave 2), ending around 0.382 of wave 3 and taking almost the same number of days to transpire as wave 2 did i.e around 8 days.

    [​IMG]

    Going down to the hourly chart presented below , it seems that this 4th was basically an expanded flat, which clearly divides in 3-3-5. With a subdividing in a zigzag ending at May 03, 2011, b again dividing in a zigzag ending at May 04,2011, it seems that the wave C has already ended or is very close to its termination. For now, we favor the view that the wave C has already ended and the uptrend has resumed, since we see clear 5 waves division for this C. The upward move for now seems to have made the i of the 1st wave up or the 3rd wave has already started ( The construction of this ongoing move will decide, which wave we are currently in) and is likely to continue for the upcoming weeks, taking price to new highs. However, this daily wave count is invalidated if we see the price entering in the domain of 1st wave at 1.3860 (High – Feb 02,2011). For now, this is as our first preferred scenario ,we favor going long on any potential pullbacks with stops no further than Feb 02,2011 high of 1.3860.

    [​IMG]

    Alternate Count
    The alternative scenario, however presents an entirely different situation, likely to be possible in the upcoming weeks. According to this count, it seems that Eur/usd has completed the zigzag up to be marked as B, starting from June 07,2010(Low – 1.1878). The subdivision of this B wave are presented in the chart below. With wave a ending at November 04,2010 (high - 1.4281) , b ending in the form of zigzag at January 10,2011 (Low – 1.2875) , c ending at the recent highs made on May 04,2011 (high – 1.4938) , market is now moving lower to form the last leg to be marked as C wave. This wave count is invalidated with the movement above 1.4938.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. tothemax6

    tothemax6

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    Thanks for starting this thread.
    Euro vs Dollar is the ultimate ugly contest. The EU is a farce that should not exist, and the EUR the monetary manifestation of this farce, and the US central bank is run by a money-printer.
    The question as to which will fall is, will the EU crumble faster and throw enough money at bailing out national governments, or will the US suffer inflation fast enough?

    I don't see how anyone can trade EUR/USD based on fundamentals.
     
  3. shulink

    shulink

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    I'm bullish on the EUR/USD base on the chart.

    EUR/USD Analysis - May 27 2011
    EUR/USD gain 1.2444% on 05/27/11 and a toal percentage of 1.6685% in the past 2 days
    EUR/USD is trading in the range of $1.3969 - $1.4939 in the past 30 days.
    Average True Range (Atr) is bullish for EUR/USD.
    Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is bullish for EUR/USD.
    EUR/USD formed a bullish Price & Exponential Moving Average Crossover signal.
    EUR/USD formed a bullish Price & Simple Moving Average Crossover signal.
    The 10-day simple moving average is bullish and moving up for EUR/USD.
    EUR/USD formed a bearish Stochastic Crossdown signal.
    Currency performance base on day of week in the past 90 days.
    Monday: -0.8437%
    Tuesday: 2.2311%
    Wednesday: 0.3199%
    Thursday: 2.0957%
    Friday: 0.2125%

    [​IMG]
     
  4. nichole

    nichole

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    I am not so sure that fundamental work because if fundamental plays a part, EUR should be crushing now. I just shorted AUD/EUR pair at 0.74709 and using scalping strategy. Hopefully I can close my position before the Aussie stock market open later.
     
  5. hevaystos

    hevaystos

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    EUR/USD - POSSIBLE SCENARIOS TO WATCH TODAY

    POSSIBLE SCENARIOS TO WATCH TODAY

    We continue with our comprehensive investigation on EUR/USD. The weekly chart shows, as we have said in immediately preceding post that the pair is just pulling back to the rising major trend line of a major rising channel. As a result a bounce off current levels or slightly lower should come with no surprise. But, unfortunately, we haven’t specified a trigger; we’ll in this post.

    The four Hour chart shows clearly a breakout below the Symmetrical Triangle, a pull back to the breakout level, and a continuation of the prior decline after a failure to stay firm over the broken resistance line. The current correction is retracing, nearly, 50% of the prior rally, and prices are hovering around the lower declining support line. The RSI is declining, but the decline seems weak knowing that a short-term falling Wedge is materializing in the RSI itself. Note: the Mega oversold reading in the RSI, which considers a stand-alone major bearish signal, warns bulls that this time, a decisive conservative signal is needed before picking from a long side.

    A rally may take place, off current levels, in both prices and momentum. Conservative traders shouldn’t buck the trend and their trigger will be a decisive up-breakout over this channel (see the circle). Short-term day traders may bet on this prospected bounce. A down-breakout below either the lower support line in the price or the lower declining line in the RSI will weaken the bullish bounce scenario.

    Ramy Rashad, CMT
    MarketsAnalysis.net
     
  6. OGRooney

    OGRooney

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    Went long Friday morning at 1.2174 for an awesome 209 pips :D
     
  7. CanOz

    CanOz Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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    and i bought the open of the DAX on Friday....:rolleyes:

    CanOz
     
  8. Boggo

    Boggo

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    You too :eek:

    I also keep on buying RED at the bottom and exiting at the top before it turns down again a couple of days later :rolleyes:
     
  9. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Yeh I took the FTSE.
    Gee I sympathize ---- only 200 pips.
    Perhaps you'll consider indexes in future.
     
  10. OGRooney

    OGRooney

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    I am SO sorry for discussing my trade in the appropriate thread guys :rolleyes:
    Maybe you should all go and discuss your successful trades in the appropriate forums?

    and just to clarify, your all saying 1.2174 to 1.2383 in one day is not a good trade?
     
  11. Boggo

    Boggo

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    All stirring aside OG, its easy for anyone to post up an "after the event" post and they will always attract attention at best or reflect on the credibility of the poster at worst.

    If you want to display your trades then putting them up at the entry would probably not attract the same joviality and some of the more sensitive BS detectors on here are more likely to remain dormant.

    :xyxthumbs
     
  12. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Any profits a good profit
    Particularly if it's yours.
     
  13. OGRooney

    OGRooney

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    Fair enough, I know it's two days late - just thought it was a noteworthy trade. Also, the previous discussion on EURUSD was a year old. I'll probably cop a loss on the open tomorrow but I guess we'll wait and see.

    "
    [TABLE="width: 738, align: center"]
    [TR="bgcolor: #E0E0E0"]
    912167
    2012-08-03 02:25:15
    1970-01-01 00:00:00
    Buy
    0.01
    eurusdii
    1.21749
    1.23842
    0
    0
    0
    0
    20.93
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    "
     
  14. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    yep, it's a good score......what's a good trade is defining the ideas that led to it so you can repeat, at least so you can weed out anything that's loose within the set-up....

    it's easy to make money from a trade, the hard part is keeping it by trading more.....you dont have to be always refining, imho, you do need to define......
     
  15. Boggo

    Boggo

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    Good onya, well done.
    You can see where I (we) are coming from though, after a few years on here you too will have seen numerous rehashes of the same sort of after the event and bargain at these prices posts.
     
  16. OGRooney

    OGRooney

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    Thanks guys, definitely see where your all coming from, thanks for keeping the stirring to 1 or two posts :p:
     
  17. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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  18. OGRooney

    OGRooney

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    GPBUSD Just broke 1.59, whilst EURUSD is respecting the August high...
     
  19. cogs

    cogs

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    EURUSD

    Anyone trading the eurusd?

    Interesting moves of late with initially a short squeeze, then a major eur bank starting the push and beyond the squeeze now with the USD creeping down where will the eur end up before rolling over again. With Drahgi committed to 'doing whatever it takes' there may be some legs in this up move.

    Thoughts? Anyone else taken a temporary bull trade?

    EURUSD 4hr.png
     
  20. >Apocalypto<

    >Apocalypto< 20.03.2012

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    Re: EURUSD

    Hi Cogs,

    I trade thee E$ most days with the A$ and AYen off the 1 hour... I took the long on the close of the 10 oclock bar on friday night after the NFP... quick 20 pips.. should have kept it longer but you know!

    I don't watch it on 4 hour shorter term stuff off the 1 hour
     
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