This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

AUD/USD

Jump to new

Well, that didn't go quite as I expected and it took me this long to get out of this trade. Sold all my USD today at the rate of .897 and made a little profit as well.
 
I think AUD could go below 60 cents.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-19/australian-dollar-could-fall-to-73-us-cents/5756598

Australian dollar could fall to 73 US cents: analysts

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.
 
Anyone got thoughts on which way they think the AUD will go over the next few weeks / months ?

Getting close to 87 cents as of this morning but been up and down in recent weeks.

Do you think it may have bottomed out yet or is there more fall in the Aussie to go ?

Based on recent events - Japan QE + US improvement in economy and ending of their QE + Aussie economy not doing much apart from housing + China housing / economy / shadow banking issues - I get the feeling it may hit 86 cents soon (or lower) but been wrong before when trying to work out the best time to cash in US dollars.
 
Most likely aud/usd will hit ~0,85 zone in the coming weeks before it will start to rally again.
If decline goes extreme then ~0,83 is the next most likely target.

 
AUD/USD during the recent days was in a strong and consistent downtrend that sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 0.85529.Right now price in long time frames such as monthly and daily is under 5-day moving average and warns about price decrease in long period of time.
As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a harmonic butterfly pattern between the bottom price of 0.85529 and the top price of 0.89109 that there is a potential for changing price direction from D point of this pattern. Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area follows the bottom price of 0.85529 and warns the possibility of ascending during the next days.Generally until the bottom price of 0.85529 is preserved, the price has the potential for ascending in this currency pair.

Technical Analysis of AUD/USD Dates 2014.11.06
 
Hi, First post here [learning trading].
Pipsafe - Thanks for the T/A of AUD/USD, good to learn from. and accurate during the last week.

Why though would you mention the 5-day moving average for the longer time frames? 5sma seems to just follow the trend really short time frame reactively.

It would be great to get an accurate long term analysis.

The price this morning is .87145.

[weekly chart/30 min candles] - price sitting on the 50sma and above 100sma.
[monthly/8 hour candles] - 100sma looks like resistance.?
I still havent learnt how to quantify the importance of these sma's in the different time periods.? Perhaps chart patterns are more relevant.?

It would be nice to chart the turning point here if the AUD weakens and heads south again.

Cheers.

 
Hi dear 787
Thanks for your attention
I use 5 sma for log time frames to find big trend and also find overbought and oversold on the trend.in fact inn the example i use to find one zone for oversold and one confirmation to buy.please look at this chart
The most important point is Harmonic patterns on the big time frames such as H4 , DAILY and weekly
 

Attachments

  • AUDUSDMonthly.png
    20.9 KB · Views: 168
As I said before we may see steep fall in commodity currencies such as AUD, CAD and NZD. 2015 may be good year for currency market as well. It will be year for USD. One USD could equal to NZD50 and AUD55 by the end of next year.

Australia need a lower exchange rate to achieve balanced growth in the economy. IMHO 2015 will be very interesting year for some currencies especially for overvalued currencies such as NZD and AUD. After EURO, Yen and now RUB, above two currencies are more vulnerable to further fall. Even the federal government's $100 billion Future Fund has cut its exposure to the Australian dollar. Actually both AUD and NZD are at the beginning of their major downturn. Just like other market cycles that is how currency cycle works. We may see fall in these two currencies until 2016/17.

According to valuation metrics of some currency advisors, they have a long-term fair value at around AUD 70 ¢. I think before it adjusts to fair value it could trade 55/55c against one USD.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
 
Looking at the long term chart it appears the $AUD may be set for a bit of an upward rebound. It appears to be testing its 0.80 long term support/resistance line and may even make a journey up to the trending overhead resistance line. Let's see. Good trading!
 

Attachments

  • AUDUSD80.png
    51.1 KB · Views: 3
AUD/USD was in a strong and consistent downtrend during the recent days that sellers were successful in obtaining the lowest price of 0.78575.This bottom price has stabilized by closing of yesterday ascending candle (Daily Chart) and it is the nearest supportive level.

According to the formed price movements in the chart, there is a Shark harmonic pattern between the bottom price of 0.78575 and top price of 0.82931 that warns about ascending of the price with completion of this pattern ending point.

In daily and h4 time frames RSI indicator is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle confirms the bottom price of 0.78575. Generally according to the current situation, until the bottom price of 0.78575 is preserved, there is the potential for ascending of price and reformation of descending trend.
 

Attachments

  • Untitled.png
    24.7 KB · Views: 101
People are pricing in a rate cut given the terms of trade have deteriorated.
Glen Stevens has a history of being overly focused on the local housing market over and above terms of trade, when it comes to actually doing something.
May be worth a short term punt to go long on AU the morning of the meeting!
 

50/50 chance leave on hold or cut I think. Either way - there's going to be volotility. After journalist "rates whisperer" Terry McCrann spoke last week his prediction markets have priced in 0.15 rate cut, as you mentioned.
 
I did a small bet that the rates will stay put
I sold my USD etf yesterday as I believe the short term gains were already made.should it go my way the aud will surge back on the news (mini surge and I get back in USD with a small profit
I still believe we are not over on the down trend medium and long term.
so this is not a forex play looking at PIPs, nor a medium/long term investment but a day trade style play.
Let's see.
 
T0BY said:
50/50 chance leave on hold or cut I think. Either way - there's going to be volotility. After journalist "rates whisperer" Terry McCrann spoke last week his prediction markets have priced in 0.15 rate cut, as you mentioned.
Click to expand...
McCrann the man!
 
It seemed like quite a few people like myself were not expecting a cut. So the $ was moving up before hand taking away any incentive to go long for me. Started yesterday so, not enough go get a gain out of it even if they did nothing. So stayed on the side.
Got bashed on some stocks however!
 
AUD/USD was in a strong and consistent downtrend during the recent weeks that Sellers were successful in obtaining the lowest price of 0.76248. As it is drawn in the picture below, according to the type of price movement, price is in a Down Channel that Sellers use the supportive edge of that to leave their trades.According to the previous week changes, previous week candle was closed as Spinning Top candlestick pattern which shows vulnerability of descending trend and potential for formation of a bottom price in this range.


As it is obvious in the picture below, between the top price of 1.05769 and bottom price of 0.76248 there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ratios of 38.2 and 2.24 that warns the potential of ascending from the D point of this pattern. RSI indicator is in saturation Sell area and confirms the current bottom price, also wars about formation of a Bottom price. Generally until the Bottom price of 0.76248 is preserved, price has the potential of ascending.


 

Attachments

  • Untitled1.png
    27 KB · Views: 1
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

B
USD index vs. AUD index
Replies
9
Views
8K
christianrenel
C
P
USD/SGD analysis
Replies
5
Views
5K
PipSafe
P
AUD/JPY
Replies
7
Views
6K
notting
F
Options for shorting AUD vs. USD?
2
Replies
20
Views
16K
FlyingFox
F
Ultimate Acronym List (UAL)
Replies
0
Views
5K
Dividend
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...