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AUD/USD

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Interesting observations based on Canoz's post #1880 in the Transition to Futures trading thread.
I liked the post as it outlines one of my fav FX patterns. It's easy to set an alert when price hits the previous day's high and low on a number of markets.

Rejection at the prev H/L doesn't happen everyday, but it happens often enough for a prepared trader to take advantage of it.

Here is a chart of the AUDUSD showing this rejection pattern over the past five trading days.
Its interesting to me that 4/6 setups occurred during the lower volume Asian session.

 
anyone seen the recent highs despite mixed figures.

i think might be time a for a reversal if usd bear trends eases and usd firms up though the meeting minutes on Tuesday probably wont support this?

what do you guy reckon?
 
Yeah, watch us blow the stops on the topside and then squeeze out the longs as we sell off all day!

If we take out .9050 then things are going to get interesting...it just WHEN it gets taken out that we've got to be careful.
 

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We could see major shift in currency market during next 12 months to 18 months. Markets, Stocks, commodity and currencies never stay in the same place. There is a possibility even AUD could go to 60c during next 36 months. NZD could go to 50c or below against USD. At the moment NZD has some strength. This is the best time to short number one overvalued NZD as it is more vulnerable than any other currency. We should not forget just like stock and commodity cycles, currency market too has cycle. In a next cycle current bull currencies such as NZD, AUD and CAD could become bear currencies and current laggards in the currency market including USD could become bull currencies. I still maintain my bearish opinion on NZD, AUD and CAD etc. If we see any resistance for currencies such as NZD and AUD in 2014 this could be last year for them. They could drop dramatically in 2015. There are lot of adjustments in financial and credit world in 2014.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
 
Daily Technical Analysis by PipSafe

AUD/USD was in a strong and consistent downtrend during the recent months that sellers were successful in obtaining the lowest price of 0.86581. price with reaching to the supportive level which is shown in the picture below ( made of 2 bottom prices) has stopped from more descend( sellers used this level to exit their trades) and with formation of a bottom price in daily time frame has prepared a field for ascending of price.

With formation of Morning Star(with 2 stars) candlestick pattern in weekly time frame, there is a warning for Vulnerability of downtrend.Currently in weekly and daily time frames price is above 5-day moving average that warns about the potential of ascending of price during long period of time.RSI indicator in daily timeframe (also Weekly Time Frame) is in saturation sell area and also it is in divergence mode with the price chart that warns the potential for ascending of the price during the next candles.The first important warning for ascending of the price according to the technical signs is breaking of the resistance level 0.90481.

 
Jeez, she's thin out there this morning. Thinner than I've seen in a long long time, definitely some nerves at the moment. I'm expecting some higher than usual volume today and a decent range whether it be a trend day or not. Looks like it will be pretty erratic though.
 
AUD Primary & Monthly cycles

Primary cycles suggests the AUD will continue down into the 2014 lows, as part of the
break-n-extend pattern from the 2013 yearly lows (Dilernia Principle) .8560 / .8351

Monthly cycles in February also playing their part, as it forms resistance.

As long as it remains below the MARCH 50% level @ .8918, the trend bias is down.

if it breaks above the 5-day highs, then it's retesting the Quarterly 50% @ 9092, but with an overall
Primary trend that's heading lower.
 

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:sleeping: was expecting so much more of the morning. If it makes a new high above and 8917 soon and doesn't pop I'm going short, not really expecting too much now either direction until early Europe
 
havaiana said:
:sleeping: was expecting so much more of the morning. If it makes a new high above and 8917 soon and doesn't pop I'm going short, not really expecting too much now either direction until early Europe
Click to expand...

Will post some stuff up on open range breakouts for discussion Hav, if you're interested...
 
Been testing another open range breakout strategy, not to trade but to find out what typically works and what doesn't. An open range breakout strategy typically fails miserably on its own without a filter. As shown here....
 

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CanOz said:
Been testing another open range breakout strategy, not to trade but to find out what typically works and what doesn't. An open range breakout strategy typically fails miserably on its own without a filter. As shown here....
Click to expand...

Definitely interested Can. In my time-frame Oz/Asia it fails even more miserably if you take out all the times the breakouts were due to RBA or Chinese data when you cannot realistically get a fill anywhere near where price breaks out.

Although I suspect this could change in the not so distant future if some serious stuff goes down in China. I'm not banking on it though

havaiana said:
.... If it makes a new high above and 8917 soon and doesn't pop I'm going short, not really expecting too much now either direction until early Europe
Click to expand...

Got shaken out on that last spike up and didn't get a fill on the re-entry
 
So a couple of things we'll add to this strategy. A filter like Crabel/Williams had to only look for breakouts when the prior session has seen the smallest range in the last 'n' days. This way we have a volatility filter using the assumption that greater volatility follows less volatility. The purpose of this exercise is not to have an automated strategy, but to have a play to use when the right conditions are apparent. Instead of just blindly using an open range as a trade play, we'll be able to have some data to back it up so we know when we should be on the lookout for an open range play.

I had previously tested an open range breakout strategy on the DAX, with a filter. It looked ok and suggested that taking open range breakouts on days that gapped open where the best plays. I'm trying to apply that concept to currency futures and GC/CL. However, this time we'll look at volatility contractions prior to the breakout play.
 
CanOz said:
So a couple of things we'll add to this strategy. A filter like Crabel...
Click to expand...

Crabel's stuff is the basis of what I've been using when buying volatility through currency options. Haven't done it enough yet to know how successful it is, but so far so good over a very small sample.

Sometimes big market moving announcements (like non farm payrolls, or say an rba rate decision that is about 50:50) can cause the couple of days beforehand to be small range days as no one wants to take the risk of a big position going into it. I don't usually buy the volatility in these types of cases as it's the known future volatility causing the small range rather than the small range causing the future volatility.

edit: just to add in case anyone is wondering why this matters, the known volatility makes the options more expensive.
 

Yeah great point Hav, and this can skew the trades. I don't even consider the US session an option for an ORB, there's plenty of test results around showing how bad it does as a play since they changed the major announcements times.
 
looks like there is a bit of a battle going on to defend 8950 this morning, maybe some option interest. I'm taking heat on a short, hoping it cracks soon
 
anyone understanding why the AUD is again surging after news which are in my view are quite bad for its future???
what do I miss: lower agricultural export lower Iron ore and coal export (in $ value at least)
and a moribond economy?
 
qldfrog said:
anyone understanding why the AUD is again surging after news which are in my view are quite bad for its future???
what do I miss: lower agricultural export lower Iron ore and coal export (in $ value at least)
and a moribond economy?
Click to expand...

Did you miss the memo on the china stimulus possibility?
 
CanOz said:
Did you miss the memo on the china stimulus possibility?
Click to expand...

I did not but any stimulus in china if/when it comes will not benefit in my opinion mineral export:
yes for german/us/japanese technology but probably negative for us (ie australia)
China will want to:
reduce pollution, increase self consumption;
not dirty coal, more ghost towns or extra RE bubble.
I expect they will actually crack down on dirty factories: do more with less ..
how could that benefit Oz??? there is a limit as to the billions corrupted chineses can hide away O/S as Sydney appartments...
Am I thinking too much? it seems by many aspect the market is a very dumb beast ..
 
qldfrog said:
how could that benefit Oz??? there is a limit as to the billions corrupted chineses can hide away O/S as Sydney appartments...
Click to expand...
Once they have bought us all out and moved in they are then all going to go shopping at David Jones and Myer. This is countering the slow down in the mining boom.
 
notting said:
Once they have bought us all out and moved in they are then all going to go shopping at David Jones and Myer. This is countering the mining boom.
Click to expand...

the sad bit is this is destroying australia's future slowly but surely...
 
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