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AUD/USD

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AUD/USD Primary cycles

Primary cycles on the AUD remain in an uptrend defined by the Yearly 50% levels.

2007, early 2008, 2010, and now 2011 has provided the Primary support level.

Therefore any further gains in 2012 will be defined by the next year's
50% level....

and same applies on weakness... (next 2 years)
 

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Could the yellow lines be interpreted like a Bollinger (Band) squeeze?

I'm leaning toward the Aus economy going backward, a bit further toward recession in line with the rest of the world and the AUD trending lower. We had a fiscal and economic advantage going into the GFC, but that has been whittled away.
 
Whiskers said:
Could the yellow lines be interpreted like a Bollinger (Band) squeeze?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure about a Bollinger squeeze, but the yearly 50% level gives you a
good indication on how the AUD is fairing in the Primary cycles

If it begins to sell down in the first 2-weeks of 2012, (probably have a good idea
looking at the lesser timeframe cycles coming into the end of this year) then
the 2012 yearly lows @ .9198 will most likely support the price for about 6-9 months.

And if you believe that the Australian economy is going backwards, then
look for a continuation of a 2 year downward pattern in the back half of 2012.
(4th Quarter)

Otherwise, it's up an onward towards 1.12+
 
Well, the RBA has taken a rare step in cutting two months in a row to 4.25.

That's probably going to cause some seriously close watching of what other international factors develop in the near future and recalculating of portfolios.

I felt (as mentioned or was that bragged : earlier) the RBA was too quick to raise rates and too slow to start lowering again and not surprised to see them cut two in a row.

The question now is how are the markets going to interpret our so called cautiously conservative RBA's reaction... panic and sell off?!
 
The 2 drivers of the AUDUSD to record highs earlier this year are the interest rate differential (which drives the current care trade and the EM equity story.
Now that that the market is pricing the cash rate to be around 3.5% by end 2012 (in the bill futures), the interest rate differential reduced significant from expectation at the beginning of the year (when all economist were talking about multiple hikes this year. From this perspective I think the carry trade could start to unwind with any further negative economic news and that may lead to correction in AUD prices.
Secondly, RBA has mentioned for the first time concerns over the Chinese economy, China property price main driver of growth has started to stalled and PMI is now in contraction, these data is not consitnent with an economy that is growing at 9%. If China continue to slow (no reason to see this not happening then commodity prices driven boom for AUD could come to an end and the Australian economy will fall back to the slower pace of the 2 paced economy
 
AUD Primary and Weekly cycles

AUD is being pushed upwards at the start of the new Primary cycle for 2012...

Helped by a breakout of the Weekly highs.

As long as the AUD remains above 1.0222, the long term trend remains Bullish.
 

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AUD Weekly cycles


Primary trend in 2012 is to move as high as 1.12+

Current price action is a 2-month wave pattern towards February's highs
(potential resistance zone in the first Quarter)
 

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Started buying US dollars yesterday.
Benanke hinted at easing to put a floor under the current confidence being expressed by US markets. This gave the Ausi$ a pop.
I suspect Benanke is hoping that when the time comes people will be saying "We really don't need it now."
It was just a confidence trick. I manintain the view that there will be no QE3.
If QE3 actually happened things would not be looking good and there is no way the AU$ will be above $1 in that senario.
Remembering of course - the market is sane and rational and I am not.
 
Well according to their latest announcement, pretty much anything short of their predictions in terms of employment will trigger QE3 so long as inflation undershoots their expectations (which are not low by any means).

Gold didn't rocket for nothing after that announcement, it should be obvious that QE3 is coming unless there is a very strong employment recovery (which is definitely not going to happen).
 
AUD Weekly Cycles

AUD completing the break and extend pattern, after finding support this week.

Primary trend suggests a move towards $1.12 in 2012...

However, these upper levels in February will begin to form resistance zones in the
1st quarter

Too early to tell when it will happen, but my view is that price will revisit the
Monthly 50% levels during this current Quarter, or the next before it completes
the move towards 1.12.

Current monthly 50% levels reside around $1.03.

first sign of a rotation down will be price trading back inside the dynamic Weekly
cycle levels (white)
 

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AUD Weekly cycles

My view is that the AUD has reached a 1st quarter top (February highs)
and will begin to unwind towards the Weekly lows.

how quickly it moves down depends on next week's 50% level, as price could
revisit the upper weeky level @ 1.0792.

Overall target remains 1.12 for this year, but a move downward before another
move upwards coming into the 2nd Quarter would be an ideal
pattern (text-book)
 

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Last time they had 5 "experts" on lateline (business), they claimed the asx200 would close over 5000 in 2011 and interest rates would rise.
 
Aus US is starting to perform as expected!
I wonder whether the China slow down is really engineered or just getting harder to hide so they are pretending to have a new target!
That with Benanke coming clean on "no QE3" is a double whammy for AU Vs US IMO.
 
I just hope it stays above parity till June while I am on holidays
 

AUD Monthly and Weekly cycles

AUD has drifted down coming into the end of the first Quarter and start of the next.

If the AUD is going to continue to follow the Primary cycle target of 1.12...

then the 2nd Quarterly 50% level is the Support zone

Below those support levels and AUD's primary Upward trend is open to Risk.
 

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