AUD/USD

joea · 4 May 2011

Well i use CCI 13 bar chart to get a look forwards and there has been a bearish diverence for 6 days before the turn of the $A.
Software says down to about $1.04.
However I am still trying to put the future into perspective, but may die first.
Cheers

Paulo30 · 4 May 2011

Good advice. I only use scaling/averaging nowadays, in preference to close SL, for this very reason. Small 50-100p moves can also be countered by taking a much longer term view with much wider tolerance. This won't suit people hell bent on short-term and daytrading though.

professor_frink said:
Just a thought, perhaps look at scaling out as an alternative to trying to defend the entire position via a BE stop. Half the position off @3R, then leaving stop in it's original place can help with times like this where you would be shaken out before the move really begins.

I know you said that this trade cost you nothing, and looking at it from one perspective you are quite right. Looking at it another way you've basically picked the top to the pip and not made anything off the 200 pip move down. Pretty big opportunity cost IMHO

Frank D · 4 May 2011

AUD/USD

AUD has risen 84 pips and stalled...

next leg from 11pm, it's either going to continue to push up another 84 pips, as part
of a move towards the Weekly highs by Friday..

or it's going to fail and continue back down breaking support

tothemax6 · 4 May 2011

Frank D said:
AUD/USD
next leg from 11pm, it's either going to continue to push up another 84 pips, as part
of a move towards the Weekly highs by Friday..
or it's going to fail and continue back down breaking support

So which is it, up or down?

Frank D · 5 May 2011

AUD/USD

Higher timeframe support levels held for the first 12 hours, but it was from 11pm
that the next leg was going oi play out (each way bet)...

However, it was the 84 pip spiral filter pattern that favoured a continuation
down (higher open):- resulting in a double 84 pip range.

AUD is now below Weekly support levels, target now becomes the
Weekly 50% level @ 1.0640. Therefore there's an expectation that the trend
will continue down on Thursday...

The 84 pip range favours a move upwards, which aligns with the levels in the daily range..

Therefore resistance is around 1.0809/20

Wysiwyg · 5 May 2011

professor_frink said:
Just a thought, perhaps look at scaling out as an alternative to trying to defend the entire position via a BE stop. Half the position off @3R, then leaving stop in it's original place can help with times like this where you would be shaken out before the move really begins.

Yes a good strategy selling half.

I know you said that this trade cost you nothing, and looking at it from one perspective you are quite right. Looking at it another way you've basically picked the top to the pip and not made anything off the 200 pip move down. Pretty big opportunity cost IMHO

Make that 300 pips down now. I wonder what would have happened had I placed my stop higher. Not a question by the way.

Frank D · 5 May 2011

AUD/USD

Exact same pattern as yesterday....

Early move down into Thursday's Random support and a 41 pip rise (partial exit)
with the expectation that the range will try and complete 84 pips during the current
12 hour range

However, the Weekly levels are now different, as yesterday was above, and today
is below...

Therefore the same pattern can play out as yesterday, or it flatlines until 11pm,
and then decides whether it moves up 84 pips, or sells off down into the
Weekly 50% level @ 1.0640, and as low as 1.0550 this week. (MAY 50% level)

Paulo30 · 5 May 2011

Lousy retail figures today, and no sign of interest rate rises for a while.. I expect it to touch support around 1.05 or so.. commodities might also get hit due to declining Dow lately.

tothemax6 said:
So which is it, up or down?

iced earth · 6 May 2011

AUD/USD :05.05.11

we had divergence between 4hr price and RSI and MCDI Histogram. also pair has broken the support line.

in daily chart, we also have divergence between price and MACD .

but the most important reason for preventing pair for increasing above 1.10 was the upper (resistance) line of Andrew pitchfork in monthly chart.

the first support level is around 1.05 (fibo %38.2)

Frank D · 6 May 2011

AUD Weekly and Daily range

11pm breakout of the daily lows has seen the AUD move down into the
MAY 50% level @ 1.0550.

At this stage it's too early to tell whether the MAY 50% level will hold support,
or whether Friday continues with Thursday's breakout, and moves down into
Friday's lows, which match the Weekly lows.

Note:- the critical level in the AUD will be the Weekly lows 1.0484

As we have seen with a number of Index and Commodity markets this week,
these Weekly lows have broken out and have continued to trend down towards
their MAY lows...

MAY lows @ .9913

Frank D · 7 May 2011

AUD/USD

11am rise on Friday, which then hit resistance, resulting in a 84 pip reversal...

And then a rally up into the Weekly level @ 1.0796 and resistance.

Next Week's trend guide is the Weekly 50% level.

By looking at the price action and the MAY 50% level support, and whilst the market remains above the
Yearly highs @ 106.12...

my view is that the AUD will try and continue higher in the current month, with a
view that's it trying to move towards the monthly highs @ 1.12.

Frank D · 10 May 2011

AUD Weekly and Daily range

AUD remains above the Weekly 50% level, and as mentioned in the previous post,
my view is that the AUD will continue higher.

However, in the daily range I don't have any long set-ups to help verify that
view. (first 12 hours)

Currently AUD is trading around resistance @ 1.0792-98 ( 41 pips...)

There are 3 possible patterns

#1) Weekly 50% level pushes the AUD higher (breaks resistance)

#A) Tuesday continues down 84 pips, which matches precisely with the
5-day 50% level (random support) @ 1.0723 (and then continues higher from 11pm

#B) Tuesday remains choppy and moves lower into 2nd 12 hour support.

Frank D · 11 May 2011

AUD Weekly and Daily range

Weekly 50% level support, and 2nd 12 hour breakout pattern should see the
trend continue up towards Wednesday's highs (random resistance)....

as part of a move towards the Weekly highs by Thursday/Friday

Support:- 1.0820 (11am)

Trailing support in case it dips early is yesterday's R84 spiral top @ 1.0792/98

Note:- I haven't factored in a reversal pattern into the 'dynamic' 5-day
50% level @ 1.0742, but it can happen this week.

Frank D · 12 May 2011

AUD/USD

Sadly the AUD didn't rise up into the Wednesday highs (R84 top), because it
would have provided a short set-up for a move back down into the start of
11pm levels.

I wasn't expecting Wednesday's reversal on AUD to happen, but as pointed
out yesterday... "it could happen this week"

And it did after 11pm. And it has also broken support levels (Weekly 50% level)

Based on the current price action and below support levels (Weekly 50% level and
Daily 50% level) I would think Thursday will continue down into the daily lows...

From there (Thursday's lows) may or may not support the trend (random support),
as it moves down into the lower Weekly levels.

I'll be wrong if the AUD begins trading above 1.0753

Frank D · 14 May 2011

AUD/USD

AUD continues to remain above support levels (MAY 50% level) which also has a
5-day low pattern on Friday.

This will normally see the AUD swing upwards for the 2-days, and back towards
the Weekly 50% level

However, the only concern that could see more weakness early next week is
the Weekly close below the Yearly highs @ 1.0612....

That will only be confirmed by a breakout of the weekly lows

Frank D · 18 May 2011

AUD/USD

As mentioned in the previous post....

The AUD will try and rise upwards for the first 2-days, however the
Yearly highs @ 1.0612 can act as resistance.

We can see the AUD has now consolidated above the support levels
(MAY 50% level)... and is currently back above the yearly highs @ 1.0612
coming into the start of the 3rd Day (Wednesday & 11am)

if AUD is going to continue higher, then it's going to rise upwards from 11am
using 1.0612 as support, which matches the levels in the daily range...

Otherwise, be aware of a 3rd day sell-off after the 2-day rise, if it begins
selling down from that same level

G-Zilla · 18 May 2011

Thank you for the technical viewpoints Frank D - Im finding them most entertaining.

Out of interests - what are others' opinions fundamentally?

Im thinking over the next 6 months when floods/cyclone data settles down and our economy continues to take off with forced RBA rate rises we will be back to the 1.1 levels.

That of-course is if there are no issues overseas causing risk aversion although if the US restarts QE we could go even higher.

tothemax6 · 18 May 2011

Fundamentals indicate future downside to AUD due to China tightening. However, AUD has a positive real interest rate, which makes it more attractive for investment against other currencies (which are mostly all negative real interest) - providing support to AUD.
Fundamentals also indicate that USD is garbage, due to massive monetary expansion, a massive government debt which looks unlikely to be restrained, and a lack of positive economic news.
My punt is hence AUD/USD bullish until Chinese construction boom stalls (could be this year, could be next), thereafter bearish.

Paulo30 · 18 May 2011

Good analysis.. our currency mainly hinges on commodities and therefore China.. but this in turn depends on the US, the DOW, and the US economic situation in general.

People such as Australian politicians seem to think China exists in a vacuum, but as soon as Walmart stop placing orders at their Chinese factories (as during the GFC), things start getting grim indeed.

Unfortunately, our whole economic policy and fed budget hinges only on China's continued expansion and growth.. like it will continue on forever exponentially.. if only it was that simple.

tothemax6 said:
Fundamentals indicate future downside to AUD due to China tightening. However, AUD has a positive real interest rate, which makes it more attractive for investment against other currencies (which are mostly all negative real interest) - providing support to AUD.
Fundamentals also indicate that USD is garbage, due to massive monetary expansion, a massive government debt which looks unlikely to be restrained, and a lack of positive economic news.
My punt is hence AUD/USD bullish until Chinese construction boom stalls (could be this year, could be next), thereafter bearish.

G-Zilla · 19 May 2011

how do you guys think of asia, india and the rest of the developing world is effecting the AUD?

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