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XAO Technical Analysis

Discussion in 'ASX Stock Chat' started by kennas, Oct 27, 2006.

  1. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Good call Kenna's hope you took an O/N position.--short.
     
  2. Realist

    Realist Billie Jean is not my lover

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    It is a good call Kennas. If not a bit late.

    But I'm betting you did not short anything, or even sell anything?

    You're not a 'shorting' type of guy are you?

    5400 is quite bearish and I can't see us hitting that again. Have to see how China goes tonite first though...
     
  3. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Hi Realist. I've sold 3/4 of my portfolio over the past 3 months. Is that enough? I didn't put a short position in yesterday, but a 'correction' doesn't usually happen in one day.
     
  4. TheRage

    TheRage

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Hi Kennas,

    I am a little bit like you in that I have been progressively selling down over the last two months. The only reason I haven't been buying back in had nothing to do with me thinking there will be a crash, which it looks like ther might be a correction today, but rather I was having trouble finding shares at a fundamentally cheap price. Who knows the next few months might be good buying opportunities. Many people who I know and work with etc keep telling me its not timing the market but time in the market. I guess they have been conditioned to say this so that they feel better watching their money drop like flies. Well done on the chart and also for selling off your assets.

    Cheers
    Ryan
     
  5. chris1983

    chris1983

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Well you would be cashed up now Kennas preparing to take advantage of this. If I had of been selling down I would of been taking just as big of hits from the taxman which is why I have stemmed me away from doing that. Also im in for the longer term. Guys but seriously..in regards to energy stocks...Uranium has not taken a backward step during any correction of late. Energy is needed. This won't last. The government in China is cracking down on speculation..and some figures show hints of an economic slow down. This is just all speculation and an over reaction. A healthy correction will probably come into play and then we can look at higher highs in the next run up. Whats your opinions? I'm expecting to take some hits like the last correction I'm but not expecting it to last long. Actually if I see any good stocks get absolutely belted I'll be calling my girlfriend and tell her to transfer funds quick.
     
  6. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    I don't think anything will be spared. Gold will be smashed even though it's not a commodity. Uranium stocks will as well, even though demand/supply hasn't changed and the price is more likely to hit $100 as opposed go back under $80. Just the way of the market. Probably an opportunity to take some positions once the dust settles. I wouldn't be trying to catch this falling knife though.
     
  7. chris1983

    chris1983

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    I agree. I dont think anything will be spared. Maybe Bannerman. haha :).

    You'll have a lot of investors running scared. You think the drop would be as bad as a falling knife...hmm I dont think it will be..but eh what do I know. I'll be holding. I sold some stocks in the last correction and it was the worst move I have made in the past year.
     
  8. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    LOL. I bought back into BMN yesterday, so I hope you are right. :)

    Bigger picture looks like 5400 could be the first step back towards the long term trend. :eek:
     

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  9. Realist

    Realist Billie Jean is not my lover

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Your graph should be logarithmic shouldn't it Kennas?


    2000 to 4000 is the same as 4000 to 8000 to me. :confused:


    If it aint logarithmic the trend will just go up and up quicker and quicker over time.
     
  10. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    You're right, it's not. Gotta find me one of those. But probably not as quick as above? Perhaps.
     
  11. chris1983

    chris1983

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Yeah that looks possible..but economic growth is different in recent years with the added boom of China and India coming into the mix of late. I just cant see it happening..the markets are different now. This is a little scare and I think sellers will be sorry in the end..guys like youself with funds will be the ones laughing when you pick everything up cheap.

    Energy is needed by those two countries and needed badly. Gas is needed in the US. This wont last. Both china and India are expanding. Anyway its going to be an interesting day. I can watch some of my paper gains dissapear. Oh yay. I think the 5400 benchmark on the graph will be the more likely of the possibilities.
     
  12. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    11 Years 2000-4000. 2 years 4000-6000?
     
  13. professor_frink

    professor_frink Moderator

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    yes and no. When looking at a chart of the Dow going back to the 1920's it will look parabolic, but for looking at recent history, linear scale is what you want to look at. The blow off tops are alot easier to spot in linear :)
     
  14. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    I'm not that bearish, and Realist is right, the graph doesn't provide a truly accurate picture, but it's close. I think 5400 ish could be as deap as this goes, if it actually is the start of a decent correction. I'm not in the Bears den yet claiming recession/depression. Even though the Chinese numbers were ordinary, it could be a short term thing. I haven't studied it enough yet, or even understand economics enough to make a qualified claim however. I'm just parroting the news papers. Long term markets go up.
     
  15. Realist

    Realist Billie Jean is not my lover

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    Re: XAO Analysis


    2000 to 4000 is a 100% increase

    4000 to 6000 is a 50% increase

    But yes I agree 2 years to go 4000 to 6000 is very very quick.

    Alot of good reasons for that though. Maybe the market was a little undervalued 5 years ago?

    And Companies are making huuuuuge profits now.. So there are fundamnental reasons.

    Look at Woolworths yesterday for instance. BHP and RIO.

    So if you matched the average PER's over the years to the graph the ASX is slightly overvalued at best now.

    Yeah we'll get a little correction or two, and the market wont soar, I see no crash coming though (without some major event like War breaking out)
     
  16. wintermute

    wintermute

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if this is a week long (or less) correction :) from memory (though I wasn't actually in the market) the bargains only lasted for a few days after Sep 11. And from something I read this morning, the drop in the US is the biggest one day drop since Sep 11...

    Tony.
     
  17. GreatPig

    GreatPig Pigs In Space

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Interesting place for the low to touch today.

    I wonder if it's defining a new trendline, or just pausing before the next plunge...

    GP
     

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  18. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    There is a little bit of support around 5800 so it seems a likely place for a pause.

    There's conjecture what phase this is, but to me it looks like the start of an A B C down after a pretty clear 5 wave push up. Couldn't get too much clearer than that could it?

    Perhaps some consolidation over the next few days before heading to 5700, recovery to the new resistance to be formed at 5800 before moving back to the long term trend around 5450 ish (probably in May). Then back on up.

    Just a pluck. Will be interesting to see how it does unfold though.
     

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  19. doctorj

    doctorj Hatchet Moderator

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Interesting, but isn't wave 3 usually the longest and never the shortest?
     
  20. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Interesting, as in nice colours? :) Nice eh? I just love drawing these things. I should have done art at uni.

    Yeah, I understand wave 3 supposed to be the longest, but I'm not sure about the never part. I've come to accept that T/A of any sort is all probabilities and never certainties. There's always exceptions to every rule. In fact, I couldn't say T/A is a rule anyway, it's just a guide. There's a whole bunch of charts out there that don't conform to support and resistance lines, fib, or EW in the slightest. But they would be the exceptions.

    This longer term chart also shows a wave 5, with a couple of anomolies in it. The wave 3 is the longest here. Whatever the case, I think we're in for at least a 3 wave downward move in all probabilities. On this long term chart the A B C could take it down to 4800 ish, but I'm not that bearish. Yet.
     

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