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XAO Technical Analysis

Discussion in 'ASX Stock Chat' started by kennas, Oct 27, 2006.

  1. judge

    judge

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Below is the weekly XJO chart (ASX200 Index) with the Stochastic and MACD indicators and the avge PER's for the major market indices.

    XJO is still clearly in an uptrend but once the index PER's start rising to 20-22+ I then start anticipating a technical correction, but not a crash at this stage. Fair market PER imo is around 17-18 atm.

    Food for thought :)
     

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  2. theasxgorilla

    theasxgorilla Problem solved... next bubble.

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    More bearish MACD divergence on the XAO. The last divergence of this kind appeared around the peak in May 06. Be alert, not alarmed...;)
     

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  3. wavepicker

    wavepicker

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    IMO this was the last leg up in the XAO. New highs may not be seen this year like previous years. Will be some excellent trading opportunities both short and long this year. Expected this market topout between 5622-5645 range. Went a little further (5670).

    Thought correction May was it, but the consolidation and final blowoff (5th wave) made the picture much clearer.

    Cheers
     
  4. wintermute

    wintermute

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Hi Kennas,

    A while back I made the observation that the humble RSI had been quite a good indicator of pullbacks of the XAO.... 5 year monthly chart below and 2 year weekly (with an exception) shows once RSI reaches 80 a drop ensues relatively soon after....

    Note I haven't read the whole thread, nor understood all of the more technical stuff of those posts that I have read, but thought this very simple test was worth mentioning :)

    Tony.

    PS. I tried to inline it, but it just gave me a link.... strange as others seem to have done so successfully...
     

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  5. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Thanks Tony, interesting chart. Clearly shows the bull run with the RSI running high the whole time with those corrections. Has just come off as you point out.

    This 3 year weekly has the MACD falling over, Slow Stochastics falling from overbought, and the BB diverged with the XAO running close to the top, but just comming off. Perhaps the green circle will bring it back to a 3 year support line (up for argument) which is also around support at 5300 ish? That 200d ma is a long way away however. Perhaps it'll be closer when the XAO drops back a bit?
     

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  6. swingstar

    swingstar

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    RSI divergence has been fairly consistent with a lot of corrections on XJO... I *will* code it one day... Would like to test it with various exit strategies. From eyeballing it seems to have a very high probability of a pullback, but that is useless without knowing when to get out.
     
  7. wintermute

    wintermute

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    yeah the weekly is a little more consistent (except at the begining of the chart) the monthly sometimes went over for a while, sometimes just touched 80, but as an early warning signal I think it is ok, then you can look at other signs...

    Unfortunately the other drawback is that it doesn't seem to really have a correlation to how big the pullback is going to be.... but thought it was interesting just the same :)

    Tony.
     

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  8. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Making yet another high.

    Concerned a little that it's running away from the 200 d ma - long term ave....I see a pullback to the 5300-400 range as a healthy break in the short term, for long term gains...

    I tried to put an EW count on this but I can't fit one in with fidelity.

    Can anyone else?
     

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  9. Uncle Festivus

    Uncle Festivus

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    hi kennas,
    One indicator that I use is the divergence from the 200 d ma. If your chart program can create it, well worth it. I'll try to post a pic.
     
  10. theasxgorilla

    theasxgorilla Problem solved... next bubble.

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    UF, this sounds like a good indicator. Post it up! :)

    I also use the distance between price and the 200-day MA but I just eye-ball it as opposed to using a crafted indicator.

    BTW, I hope everyone is LONG the market right now!
     
  11. Edwood

    Edwood

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    afternoon - a possible area for a pause, pattern is starting to look complete, however the breakout over resistance at previous all time highs looks pretty bullish

    [​IMG]
     
  12. Edwood

    Edwood

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    any wavers out there who can critque this? alternative is that we print a lower low and make a 5 down - 5667 area on my chart looks important support. note that my numbers vary slightly from XAO due tot he instrument I'm trading but the pattern should be pretty similar

    [​IMG]
     
  13. theasxgorilla

    theasxgorilla Problem solved... next bubble.

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Love your work Edwood. 5761 is a 144-line...might be where the wave 5 is headed? Who knows...but I like your counting.
     
  14. Edwood

    Edwood

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    thanks Gorilla - seems to fit but beware there might be bits that need to be tweaked, altho overall it looks like higher to me. I see Bill McLaren is suggesting we might get an exhaustive spike, which could take us to 5,800 area, but I think a lot depends on whether the US & Europe can hold support.
     
  15. Edwood

    Edwood

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    oops! I see I spelt McLarens name wrong :eek: but doesn't seem I can edit my post - anyone know how to edit?
     
  16. Nick Radge

    Nick Radge

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    Your A-B-C at the bottom looks incorrect.

    On daily chart, I think we're either near completing a running flat wave-b of wave-(iv) or we've already started the wave-(v) higher. I was looking for another pull back toward 5500 but not sure that's going to happen if we go too much further.
     
  17. Joe Blow

    Joe Blow Administrator

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    For twenty minutes after you post you will see an 'Edit' button next to the 'Quote' button on your post. Click this to edit your post. Keep in mind you only have 20 minutes from the original post time to make alterations.
     
  18. Edwood

    Edwood

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    ah ok - yes I was tossing up between 1-2 out of the low or A-B-C, thanks for your feedback Nick
     
  19. Edwood

    Edwood

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    ok thanks Joe, I see that now
     
  20. Edwood

    Edwood

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    Re: XAO Analysis

    updated count - rejected at the 1.68 fib extension of my waves 1 & i

    [​IMG]

    looks like a bear flag forming on 1min chart, possible 13 pts out of it.
     
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