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XAO Banter Thread

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Market looking amazing today. There's about 20 speccies I'd happily buy.

I reckon a few days of slight weakness early next week, then it's on. Breakout time.
 
S&P have been in contact with me, that's true. They want to use my trading habits as a contrarian indicator.
 
Close at 4,297.20 - getting awfully close

All rests on US consumer sentiment tonight and I predict it will be crap, and then down we go
 
Starcraftmazter said:
Close at 4,297.20 - getting awfully close

All rests on US consumer sentiment tonight and I predict it will be crap, and then down we go
Click to expand...

4301.3.

Breakout!!!

(Ignoring the last 7 failed attempts).
 
XAO 4391 after testing 4397.9. Banks were good today and still have room for further gains.
 
nulla nulla said:
XAO 4391 after testing 4397.9. Banks were good today and still have room for further gains.
Click to expand...
Agree, the market goes no where without the banks and that has been the big lag
and when the banks move the tide comes in, and historically March is good for our banks and the lower dollar is helping and we are above 200 day moving average which is a volume grabber to keep the ball rolling and the financial indicators are looking broken out and we've been rolling with the punches so long we find that hard to see.
Funny I don't remember any of the big 4 and 2 making a loss during the GFCs first act. BOQ doesn't seem to have frightened too many off!
IAG has followed QBE up on it's run :sheep:
That's funny.
Of course last year was an unusually bad year for natural disasters!!
It's not like that's going to happen again. :taz:
Even the SUN is up. :silly:
Better put a pair of shorts on and go tend the chooks.
 
Looking at the European and US bourses, to me they look primed for a bearish leg.
 
The five year chart (below) for the all ords shows we are due for an upward leg, particularly when you compare our index with the various overseas index's.



The recent activity suggest our market is trying to break out above the resistance level of 4400 but there are a lot of factors making it hard: The two speed economy; the high value of the aud$ against other world currencies; the current Australian tendency to save money in banks rather than invest in the share market; the ongoing saga of sovereign debt among the Euro member nations; and the slowing of the chinese economic growth rate, just to name a few.

At this point we could just as easily fall back to 4200 as we could break through 4400 and test the next resistance level at 4600. Hard call, I reckon a small retrace is more likely with the market continuing to move side ways and upward. The range bandwidth moving from 4000-4400 to possiblly 4300-4600? But then, what would I know.
 
nulla nulla said:
the high value of the aud$ against other world currencies;
Click to expand...

I think the very recent downfall of the Aussie dollar has a lot to do with our stockmarket finally breaking above 4300/4400 (asx200/xao).

So I'm willing to bet that shall AUDUSD collapse to parity, our market will indeed launch even higher, and if it pulls back to 1.07/8 then we won't get far.
 

A good analysis nulla.

We wait and watch.

gg
 
If I am correct COAG will be on the agenda this week.
There has been a bit of "shadow boxing", so it is time someone made contact.
Myself I am waiting for Wayne Swan's comments with baited breath.
I will have a small wager that the term "what is best for Australia" be used at least once by our fearless leader.
When the air clears the XAO may move back a shade to complete the correction(Elliott) then proceed upwards.
joea
 
Gringotts Bank said:
So it broke out, now there's no follow through. I'm selling everything but a few stocks I have. [28th Mar ]
Click to expand...

A lot of stocks have the top left shoulder and head in place. If/when a right shoulder is to form, the Ords would need to be a bounce off either 4340 (nowish) or 4300. The run up would be slight, maybe 50 points max. Then looking for more direction.
 
Looking ok, wouldn't you agree?

High of 28th Oct 2011 looks like it might get tested, hopefully into close, if not tomorrow.

Next major res == 4500.
 
4500 wasn't going to be broken in a hurry.

Down to 4450 tomorrow before an afternoon recovery.
 
Recent support and higher swing lows have both been taken out by this down move but I'm still not convinced this is going to last. Financials are holding up remarkably well. During the last few sustained down moves, financials were the first to head aggressively lower but have just meandered lower this time around. This alone doesn't make me bullish but I'm on my toes for long setups.
 
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