Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[Smurf1976]

And to continue my previous post, this "blanket XYZ level tariff on each country" is the exact kind of sledgehammer approach I've been referring to.

The problem I have with the sledgehammer approach, as someone who's fundamentally a detail and technical person, is it invariably ends up breaking something that's seriously hard to fix.

Been there, seen that game in real life and it ain't pretty. Eventually it gets fixed but not without costing a fortune, ending careers, permanently closing businesses, etc.

But I'm giving Trump some benefit of the doubt simply because he's the only show in town, no other recent president has even tried. That being so, well I guess he reasons that he's only got 4 years, and even that could plausibly be cut short due to health given his age, so it's a case of going in all guns blazing.

In terms of trading shares though, with the approach taken I very much doubt we've seen the bottom yet. When the bull's still in the china shop, something's going to break almost certainly.

What's the bet there's already a few "dead man walking" type situations with hedge funds and the like that didn't allow for that level of volatility?

Personally, for my own active trading of ASX shares I've completely paused all buying at present. I still own quite a few, they're not being sold other than in the normal manner, but I've paused buying for the simple reason that this sort of scenario isn't something that was modelled or back tested. Normal market declines yes, but not what amounts to the active market intervention of the US President with an unclear objective.

I say that noting my system told me to go all in on stocks, 100%, and I just don't trust that signal given the situation. Time will tell.

 

[divs4ever]

I now believe that I understand where the last 20 posters stand in relation to Trump and China.

Would it be possible to return to Stock and Economic content over the next 4 years of Trump's administration.

gg

sure ... uncertainty

and mostly i will be investing away from both nations in 2025 ( at least )

however i WILL be watching , somebody else will try an even more ham-fisted approach sooner rather than later , i think it will be the UK but there is other competition there

 

[TimeISmoney]

elsewhere ,
and remember the extra fees placed on Chinese ships in US ports
it won't take much to send the exports to Africa , South America ( and do great deals for fellow Asians , who will probably trade in yuan )

now IF all the Chinese ( owned ) container ships avoid thew US .. is that a different problem ?

The other problem is that Chinese shipping companies are transporting US goods to other countries out of US ports.

 

[Knobby22]

There is the possibility that Trump will now get better advice and everything stabilises to some extent.

 

[sptrawler]

That's 2020 wasn't it when Morrison was mouthing off about the evils of China?

Have to be the dumbest thing any Australian PM has ever done for what benefit?

Wasn't he mouthing off about where covid originated and trying to get an investigation happening?

But I guess he should have said nothing, then you would go on about him being gutless, you can't please some people.

Just ask Kev, now there's a foot in the mouth ex P.M., who couldn't help but mouth off, if he wasn't abusing RAAf young women, it was at the President of the U.S, apparently Kev had one hell of a foul mouth from what I've heard.
I guess you forget, when your a member of Kev's cult club.

PM apologises for mid-air meltdown

The PM has apologised for verbally abusing a flight attendant after not being served the meal he wanted.

www.abc.net.au

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/kevin-rudd--hero-or-psychopath/news-story/49e8551dd478f1eb28f5a33653b3ca62

 

[Dona Ferentes]

a one liner ... (no context)

Redfin reports 1 in 5 homebuyers are backing out of real estate deals in the US, in the past fortnight

 

[finicky]

There's a sample of traitorous, or just useful idiot, leftoids in this clip that'll bring comfort to some of you that you're not alone in your sentiments. They're all happy to think that a murderous totalitarian power will win this critical contest against the awful and stupid Donald Trump. China has been white-anting the U.S and planning for global dominance for decades. Trump is doing what absolutely has to be done but has been long delayed by the globalist left and big money beneficiaries of 'financialization'.

 

[sptrawler]

I now believe that I understand where the last 20 posters stand in relation to Trump and China.

Would it be possible to return to Stock and Economic content over the next 4 years of Trump's administration.

gg

Chance would be a fine thing, there are some passionate about personalities and it wouldn't matter if they were Jesus resurrected, if they are in the wrong party they're toast.

With the U.S being the major market place for Chinese junk, the Chinese still need them, so I would think there is a plan to a negotiated outcome.

The U.S still has Europe and the U.K to develop a trading block with,that would leave China with only the SE Asian and African countries to sell their product to, that would be problematic one because those countries are generally poor and two they are not polilitically stable.

China just has to accept that their product has to reflect the true cost of manufacture and fully float their currency so that the markets can value it, rather than China.
Easier said than done.
It isn't a level playing field, when a country can import all its raw materials and most of its energy, then make a toaster and ship it thousands of miles to market and sell it for the price of a electrical plug top, the toaster is basically free.

Someone is distorting the market, that will always end badly, it is either China joins the World trade, or China ends up owning the World by sending everyone else broke.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Just announced. Further tariffs on products and machinery that go to make pharmaceuticals and computer chips. From the NYT.





gg

 

[finicky]

Major Japanese company will try to absorb 25% U.S tariff without raising prices.
Japan no friend of China.

Mazda will bite the bullet, for now​

This week, Mazda sent a letter to its U.S. dealers informing them that it would not raise its sticker prices or tack on import fees for any vehicles already on dealership lots or that will come into the country before May 1.
The letter, which the Wall Street Journal viewed, is Mazda's response to the 25% tariffs on car imports ..

https://www.thestreet.com/automotive/japanese-carmaker-takes-drastic-action-amid-u-s-trade-war

 

[Knobby22]

Just announced. Further tariffs on products and machinery that go to make pharmaceuticals and computer chips. From the NYT.



View attachment 197551

gg

Xi has started restricting rare earths.

Japan And South Korea will likely get access as part of the new treaty being evolved with China but USA, Taiwan will be constricted.
This will stop manufacture of chips, weapon systems, permanent magnets etc. Europe will try to do a deal also.
USA will be screwed.

Xi is going to take on the USA on now. I didn't see him drop the tariffs when Trump dropped his. Trump will be desperate for a deal.

Biden was smart in attacking China and planning for the future including bringing semiconductor factories to the USA and putting money into rare earth projects. It takes time though to set these up.

Trump has jumped the gun and been dumb- acting pre-emptively. In the process isolating the USA from its allies who are now talking directly with Beijing. USA will end up in a USA recession.

China halts critical mineral, magnet exports as trade war intensifies

The move threatens to choke off supplies of components central to car makers, aerospace manufacturers, semiconductor companies and military contractors around the world.

www.theage.com.au

 

[eskys]

Can you expand on this for me?

A very quick one on this. I was trying to say it's not all bad. The tariff stouch between the two nations gives us a chance to renegotiate and better our relationship with China and other nations. It's a win for all if we can work together. For my part, I was thinking where I wanted to be, how I can position myself in the market, what stocks I can pick to avoid pain etc....sounds very selfish, but there, you have it.

Can't be here today, have to work. Will come back later, maybe after lunch. Failing that, after market closes. Good luck everyone, and happy chatting.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Major Japanese company will try to absorb 25% U.S tariff without raising prices.
Japan no friend of China.

Mazda will bite the bullet, for now​

This week, Mazda sent a letter to its U.S. dealers informing them that it would not raise its sticker prices or tack on import fees for any vehicles already on dealership lots or that will come into the country before May 1.
The letter, which the Wall Street Journal viewed, is Mazda's response to the 25% tariffs on car imports ..

https://www.thestreet.com/automotive/japanese-carmaker-takes-drastic-action-amid-u-s-trade-war

They're smart enough to know that tariffs don't help the local populace; it's just a consumer tax paid by the locals.

When countries get sick of Trump, they'll slowly take US products off the shelf and say it's a consumer choice.

 

[over9k]

Just announced. Further tariffs on products and machinery that go to make pharmaceuticals and computer chips. From the NYT.



View attachment 197551

gg

He's starting to use the scalpel

 

[divs4ever]

The other problem is that Chinese shipping companies are transporting US goods to other countries out of US ports.

oh yes i understood that , but does the US administration

would China order all the Chinese vessels to avoid US ports ?

it might certainly reduce imports ( and exports ) to the US , maybe even cut Chinese traffic through the Panama Canal .

 

[TimeISmoney]

oh yes i understood that , but does the US administration

would China order all the Chinese vessels to avoid US ports ?

it might certainly reduce imports ( and exports ) to the US , maybe even cut Chinese traffic through the Panama Canal .

Dialling up more inflation, I would think, will most likely be the result.

They would want to trade with other nations, so you'd expect higher transport costs for someone else to fill that gap.

The only good outcome for the US would be China losing out.

 

[finicky]

Lol ....
... traitors!

 

[divs4ever]

Dialling up more inflation, I would think, will most likely be the result.

They would want to trade with other nations, so you'd expect higher transport costs for someone else to fill that gap.

The only good outcome for the US would be China losing out.

will China be losing out , one main thing is less utilizing of the US dollar ( by China and the customers )

China is quite willing to do direct goods swaps say cars , mobile phones and washing machines for soy-beans and iron ore

MAYBE some international banks will be the big loser

PS China controls ( via long leases ) quite a few ports internationally

 

[waterbottle]

There's a sample of traitorous, or just useful idiot, leftoids in this clip that'll bring comfort to some of you that you're not alone in your sentiments. They're all happy to think that a murderous totalitarian power will win this critical contest against the awful and stupid Donald Trump. China has been white-anting the U.S and planning for global dominance for decades. Trump is doing what absolutely has to be done but has been long delayed by the globalist left and big money beneficiaries of 'financialization'.

Lmao Xi playing the diplomacy game very well

 

[divs4ever]

Lmao Xi playing the diplomacy game very well

China has been white-anting the U.S and planning for global dominance for decades.

it didn't have to plan , greedy G7 nation industrialists did all the heavy lifting , but China fine-tuned the advantage it was given.

China has removed much of the internal bottle-necks it will take years ( decades if they have to rely on G7 funding ) to be competitive to China on any useful scale ( even longer if cargo ships need to be built to replace the Chinese ones working now )

and even worse India ( the heir apparent ) is watching all this treachery from the sidelines ( and still remembers Bhopal )