Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[sptrawler]

Another critical point regarding the unilateral immediate breaking of contacts and agreements.

There was no suggestion of Force Majuere issues. In times of immediate major changes in circumstance Force Majuere can be invoked with understanding by both parties. The revocation of agreements and contacts by the Trump adminisation has been purely political. They wanted to impose their political ideology on the US and world stage immediately and one of the key elements of this ideology was demonstating they would not be bound by any legal, ethical or practical considerations.

Hence the complete disregard for any legal, ethical or practical issues. How would you ever trust such a business partner again ?

How would we trust them again, the same reason we trust Japan and Germany, yet we were at war with them years ago. We trust them because we need them, simple really.

 

[sptrawler]

And many will. Incidentally China will also look for opportunities to be seen as a good neighbor.

And we will jump toward them, despite their behaviour toward us re the Covid tariffs and the undermining of our nickel and lithium industries, because that's the we roll.

 

[basilio]

How would we trust them again, the same reason we trust Japan and Germany, yet we were at war with them years ago. We trust them because we need them, simple really.

Sorry. Wrong analogy SP.

WW2 finished 80 years ago. Germany and Jap were the losers in the war and the Victors did all they could to create a new Government that would not reflect the policies of Wartime Germany/Japan. It also took decades and decades for the anger and distrust against these countries to dissipate.

The US is still an economic/military powerhouse. Yes we will "do business" with them again on an absolute needs basis. But IMV there will be very big re calibrations of trust by other countries and businesses. Loss of trust is very corrosive.

 

[DannyB0000]

How can you run a business when there so many tariff flip flops and uncertainty and your overseas suppliers think your country is a joke.

It must be nightmare for customs agents to work out the correct import duties on imports when there so many changes.

 

[eskys]

Don't worry, be happy. Bring your businesses to Australia; you can trust us. We won't adopt Jacinta's Make Australia Great again kind of stuff.

Wondering where we're heading. ViX down, Asian markets green, premarket green, our graph up, yields down, greenback down, iron ore down, and so are oil and gold at time of posting.

 

[Knobby22]

Don't worry, be happy. Bring your businesses to Australia; you can trust us. We won't adopt Jacinta's Make Australia Great again kind of stuff.

Wondering where we're heading. ViX down, Asian markets green, premarket green, our graph up, yields down, greenback down, iron ore down, and so are oil and gold at time of posting.

From this years Christmas card

 

[sptrawler]

Sorry. Wrong analogy SP.

WW2 finished 80 years ago. Germany and Jap were the losers in the war and the Victors did all they could to create a new Government that would not reflect the policies of Wartime Germany/Japan. It also took decades and decades for the anger and distrust against these countries to dissipate.

The US is still an economic/military powerhouse. Yes we will "do business" with them again on an absolute needs basis. But IMV there will be very big re calibrations of trust by other countries and businesses. Loss of trust is very corrosive.

It hasn't affected our relationship with China, we still kowtow, no matter what they do to us.

It's just that Xi keeps a low profile, whereas Trump is loud and people don't like him, but neither China or the U.S gives us a second thought.

As you say Bas, Trump will push us toward our friends the Chinese, they've always got our back, our good neighbour.

The hit list: Sanctions imposed on Australian trade by China

Having trouble keeping up with the growing list of official and unofficial sanctions brought in by China? Here's a quick guide to what's been hit and what might still be in the firing line.

www.abc.net.au

In May, Australian grain growers were hit for six when China announced tariffs of 80 per cent on barley.

After an 18-month investigation into claims Australian farmers had engaged in anti-competitive behaviour, China announced the anti-dumping tariff would be 73.6 per cent, while the anti-subsidy tariff would be 6.9 per cent.

The tariffs apply for five years, and have already brought the trade, which in 2017 was worth more than $1 billion, to a halt.

Subsequently, two grain exporters — CBH and Emerald Grain — have also been suspended from selling barley into China.

Last year, Australia sold almost $3 billion of red meat to China, making it the most valuable farm export, but now there are eight Australian abattoirs currently blocked from selling red meat to China.

In the same week that China flagged its plans to tariff barley, four major Australian beef exporters were blacklisted by China over claims of mislabelling.

Two more Queensland abattoirs have since been suspended from sales to China, including John Dee over claims meat was contaminated, while no reason was given for the suspension of Meramist.
Australian wine sales to China have effectively ground to a halt, first with an unofficial ban that held up hundreds of shipping containers at ports, and subsequently with the introduction of tariffs.

In August, China launched an investigation into claims Australian winemakers dumped wine, and followed up days later with a separate investigation into claims winemakers were subsidised.

It has since introduced interim tariffs of up to 200 per cent for dumping, and added insult to injury with a six per cent tariff for countervailing duties.
Growers and exporters say their customers in China have been told to stop buying Australian cotton.

Australian Government sources have told the ABC the cotton industry could face tariffs as high as 40 per cent, a sanction that could make the trade with China unviable.

Typically, Australia would sell about $800 million of cotton to China each year.
Tonnes of live Australian lobsters were left to die on the tarmac as China's customs delayed quarantine inspections in November, fuelling uncertainty among Australian fishers.
Days later, word spread that importers in China had been warned by officials to stop buying Australian lobster ahead of an unofficial ban from November 6.
In 2019, nearly half of Australia's timber exports went to China, a market worth $1.9 billion.

Now China is refusing to accept timber from four Australian states.
For months, dozens of bulk carriers carrying Australian coal were stranded off the coast of two major Chinese ports unable to unload their cargoes.

It was estimated up to $700 million of coal had been caught out in the delays, which China attributed to "environmental" problems.

Coal had also been identified in the list of commodities that Chinese importers had been warned to avoid from November 6.

Since then the Chinese have undermined our nickel industry, by funding the development of pig nickel production in Indonesia and power the processes with coal fired generation, to make the "clean EV Batteries.

Indonesia’s Nickel Industry: Powering Global Supply Chains

Discover how Indonesia transformed the global nickel market from minor player to powerhouse while navigating environmental challenges.

discoveryalert.com.au

 

[over9k]

This could be the start of a bumpy good fast ride to the top for us and the rest, not sure about the US though

Unknown to him, he could be doing us all a favour

Can you expand on this for me?

 

[farmerge]

One good thing that comes out of this....we can sell our beef to Xi

Already happening now

 

[TimeISmoney]

 

[finicky]

^^^
That's the best you've got? A smug Ch4 biatch smiling in validation of a CCP spokesman? She's the feminist leftist who did her best to discredit Jordan Petersen and virally failed.
What the hell is wrong with you fools? China is a malevolent enemy of the West.

 

[IFocus]

It hasn't affected our relationship with China, we still kowtow, no matter what they do to us.

It's just that Xi keeps a low profile, whereas Trump is loud and people don't like him, but neither China or the U.S gives us a second thought.

As you say Bas, Trump will push us toward our friends the Chinese, they've always got our back, our good neighbour.

The hit list: Sanctions imposed on Australian trade by China

Having trouble keeping up with the growing list of official and unofficial sanctions brought in by China? Here's a quick guide to what's been hit and what might still be in the firing line.

www.abc.net.au

In May, Australian grain growers were hit for six when China announced tariffs of 80 per cent on barley.

After an 18-month investigation into claims Australian farmers had engaged in anti-competitive behaviour, China announced the anti-dumping tariff would be 73.6 per cent, while the anti-subsidy tariff would be 6.9 per cent.

The tariffs apply for five years, and have already brought the trade, which in 2017 was worth more than $1 billion, to a halt.

Subsequently, two grain exporters — CBH and Emerald Grain — have also been suspended from selling barley into China.

Last year, Australia sold almost $3 billion of red meat to China, making it the most valuable farm export, but now there are eight Australian abattoirs currently blocked from selling red meat to China.

In the same week that China flagged its plans to tariff barley, four major Australian beef exporters were blacklisted by China over claims of mislabelling.

Two more Queensland abattoirs have since been suspended from sales to China, including John Dee over claims meat was contaminated, while no reason was given for the suspension of Meramist.
Australian wine sales to China have effectively ground to a halt, first with an unofficial ban that held up hundreds of shipping containers at ports, and subsequently with the introduction of tariffs.

In August, China launched an investigation into claims Australian winemakers dumped wine, and followed up days later with a separate investigation into claims winemakers were subsidised.

It has since introduced interim tariffs of up to 200 per cent for dumping, and added insult to injury with a six per cent tariff for countervailing duties.
Growers and exporters say their customers in China have been told to stop buying Australian cotton.

Australian Government sources have told the ABC the cotton industry could face tariffs as high as 40 per cent, a sanction that could make the trade with China unviable.

Typically, Australia would sell about $800 million of cotton to China each year.
Tonnes of live Australian lobsters were left to die on the tarmac as China's customs delayed quarantine inspections in November, fuelling uncertainty among Australian fishers.
Days later, word spread that importers in China had been warned by officials to stop buying Australian lobster ahead of an unofficial ban from November 6.
In 2019, nearly half of Australia's timber exports went to China, a market worth $1.9 billion.

Now China is refusing to accept timber from four Australian states.
For months, dozens of bulk carriers carrying Australian coal were stranded off the coast of two major Chinese ports unable to unload their cargoes.

It was estimated up to $700 million of coal had been caught out in the delays, which China attributed to "environmental" problems.

Coal had also been identified in the list of commodities that Chinese importers had been warned to avoid from November 6.

Since then the Chinese have undermined our nickel industry, by funding the development of pig nickel production in Indonesia and power the processes with coal fired generation, to make the "clean EV Batteries.

Indonesia’s Nickel Industry: Powering Global Supply Chains

Discover how Indonesia transformed the global nickel market from minor player to powerhouse while navigating environmental challenges.

discoveryalert.com.au

That's 2020 wasn't it when Morrison was mouthing off about the evils of China?

Have to be the dumbest thing any Australian PM has ever done for what benefit?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I now believe that I understand where the last 20 posters stand in relation to Trump and China.

Would it be possible to return to Stock and Economic content over the next 4 years of Trump's administration.

gg

 

[TimeISmoney]

^^^
That's the best you've got? A smug Ch4 biatch smiling in validation of a CCP spokesman? She's the feminist leftist who did her best to discredit Jordan Petersen and virally failed.
What the hell is wrong with you fools? China is a malevolent enemy of the West.

It's got nothing to do with picking sides, the US is basically the centre to the western world economy, if a nutter like Trump keeps going on the tradgetory that he's on there'll be no peace for anyone. Do you see the US buying our exports that the Chinese will leave behind?

The US can't even get its citizens to work in farms, let alone on a manufacturing production line. He's trying to dictate to the world with his punishment tariffs, and next he'll be forcing countries to buy his overpriced exports.

 

[IFocus]

So everyone understands that over 50% tariffs that's end game i.e. no further trade given China and the US tariffs are over !00% just wondering where all the container ships are going to?

Anyone got the data on shipping?

BTW Walmart is 70% Chinese goods.

 

[over9k]

So everyone understands that over 50% tariffs that's end game i.e. no further trade given China and the US tariffs are over !00% just wondering where all the container ships are going to?

Anyone got the data on shipping?

BTW Walmart is 70% Chinese goods.

It actually depends on the goods. All these chinese manufacturers are making a huge mistake with all these videos showing how they make all the stuff we buy IMO because they're showing just how enormous the markup actually is on all the designer handbags etc.

A 125% tariff is meaningless on a product with a 5000% markup. Meaningless.

But a low margin item? Even a 25% tariff, let alone a 125%, might make the trade completely uneconomical and therefore stop it completely.

Remember, the devil's in the details

 

[over9k]

And to continue my previous post, this "blanket XYZ level tariff on each country" is the exact kind of sledgehammer approach I've been referring to.

What he should have been doing is making economic surgical strikes and putting X tariffs on type A goods, Y tariffs on type B goods, Z tariffs on type C goods, so on and so forth.

This is precisely what china did responding with, for example, live food tariffs that ended up stopping australia's lobster/crayfish exports whilst still keeping iron ore trade viable.

Things like a shortage of luxury handbags or lobsters aren't going to cause a country a lot of problems. Iron ore that you make all of your steel from or microchips that are needed in like every single device/machine from your phone to your car to your washing machine to an offshore oil rig are.

See the difference?

 

[over9k]

So yeah. He might adopt the precision bombing approach now rather than the carpet bombing approach he's been using. We have 3 months before we'll know.

In the meantime, we just wait.

 

[divs4ever]

That's 2020 wasn't it when Morrison was mouthing off about the evils of China?

Have to be the dumbest thing any Australian PM has ever done for what benefit?

well Gillard didn't impress India , i didn't think that was clever either ( they even wanted to buy some of our uranium )

maybe we will navigate this well , but am NOT holding my breath after the excuses used to buy obsolete nuclear submarines

 

[divs4ever]

where all the container ships are going to?

elsewhere ,
and remember the extra fees placed on Chinese ships in US ports
it won't take much to send the exports to Africa , South America ( and do great deals for fellow Asians , who will probably trade in yuan )

now IF all the Chinese ( owned ) container ships avoid thew US .. is that a different problem ?