Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

David Hunter Market Collapse Prophecy

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Grim days eh? I dropped 20 grand in paper today on top of whatever it's been for the days before . Worried? Doonn't worry, be happy, Dave's got it figured. This is just a "high level consolidation". Big energetic breakout ahead. S&P going to 7,500. Gold and silver probably have the same targets (I didn't listen to most if it - just checked in to see if he was issuing warnings yet - he's not). Gold target has been US$3,700 before everything busts if I recall. Take it or leave it - I'm taking it so far.

 
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From five or six days ago, i.e before gold slumped, Dave Hunter said at 1.18.20 in this clip that he raised his gold target to US$4,000.
That target being his "melt up" top target before his predicted "global deflationary collapse"

 
gold can reach $US 4000 without a crash , mainly because there is a widespread detachment between the price of gold and the buying power of the US dollar ( and other currencies )

now some are seeing the decaying buying power of national currencies ( and euro ) and accumulating gold and silver , moving those commodity prices higher

BUT what happens when those desiring gold and silver but can't get physical delivery
 
Sean K said:
Have any of David’s predictions come true yet?
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Enough to keep me and others interested. He has steadfastly said that the bull market in equities will continue and only end with a blow-off top - his expression is a 'melt-up'. He keeps calling gold up through all its gyrations, unphased by any any event that others think will dethrone it. He picked that the oil price would crash.

Where he turns people off, including me for a while, is that he tries to time outcomes when they ask and when this fails says he's not a market timer, he's a macro strategist who'll tell you what to stay in. It's macro events that he is predicting, i.e there will be a melt-up in equities - which surely we are currently in? He has stoically maintained that view when most have been pointing to overvaluation and the broadening top of the DJIA or whatever. He conveys a sense of inevitability based on his view of historical secular bull and bear markets - we are nearing the end of a +40 year secular bull market in equities. Gold will go higher - keeps on raising his target but he's been saying it for years and never wavers on the trend. The 'melt up' will give way to a massive crash, maybe down 80%, that he refers to as a 'global deflationary bust'. But not until higher targets, which he keeps revising, are met . Gold will participate in the liquidation but should sustain at historically high prices or at least will quickly recover. The crash, maybe down 80%, will be decisively met with unlimited money printing which will rapidly reflate assets and usher in sort of golden age of western onshoring and reindustrialization entailing a boom in commodities. Oil and gold will go much higher than present - i think he's said US$500 oil! Commodity inflation everywhere
My loose take and take him with his words or not. I also like Felix Zulauf but he's less accessible.
 
Sean K said:
Have any of David’s predictions come true yet?
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but in games like that you only have to be correct once in 30 years ( and have your investments in the right place and your cash very very liquid )

now i don't expect the wider market to go to zero ( there will be a smattering of buyers out there , maybe even David himself )

now how low can it go , sure you will have the usual nervous hands selling ( the folks with 10% trailing stop-losses ) but will we get margins called and carry-trades unwound and some funds going bust

and how much downturn before those in profit CHOOSE to go to cash ( or just take profit )

a 20% drop can be very educational to watch ( and 20% can quickly convert into 40% drop )

so do you go to cash ( and cancel any debt ) or go to precious metals ( and real estate ) , or some of all of them

the best bit of physical precious metals is you can transact without government intervention ( if you choose to )

gold as an official currency in general use ( as opposed to settling national/corporate debt ) that would be unlikely governments love their control mechanisms , and if gold ( and silver ) became common use your government will have to essentially fail ( not just the current administration being evicted )

... but everything could go to hell ( in a hand-basket ) at almost any time , currently
 
finicky said:
- we are nearing the end of a +40 year secular bull market in equities.
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possibly
finicky said:
. The 'melt up' will give way to a massive crash, maybe down 80%, that he refers to as a 'global deflationary bust'. But not until higher targets, which he keeps revising, are met .
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an 80 percent drop .... overnight or over multiple years, like the 1930s?
 
Dona Ferentes said:
an 80 percent drop .... overnight or over multiple years, like the 1930s?
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He's explicit that the bust will be as the name implies - fast like the mini-sub that imploded while checking out Titanic. It will bottom in 12-18 months possibly sooner and the ascent will be like Houdini cutting off a concrete block after being thrown overboard by the mafia - unprecedented globally coordinated credit issuance and quantitative easing to head off a depression which will come much further down the track.
 
finicky said:
Posted on twitter 1st June. Video interview accessible on twitter.

"I'm still bullish gold, I raised my target to $4,000 not too long ago."
@DaveHcontrarian
provides his outlook on the gold market and explains his $4,000 price target

Click to expand...

I saw that latest video of David Hunter @finicky on x.com where I am one of his followers. I quite admire David as he has made money from nothing by writing on and saying what we all think and would like to do. He also does it in a way that is spoon fed so that one never gets hiccups or reflux after listening to him. And he always says there will be a doomsday end.

One thing he will never do is stick to one possible outcome or give advice unless one is paying him for it. So I guess he has made more money from giving advice to his premium subscribers via his podcasts and newsletters and on Rumble than he ever has in the markets. He himself says it is time in the market and timing which counts and that is nothing earth shattering to most on this forum. To be fair to him, perhaps his timing is better than the average punter doing the monthly comp on ASF, but this may be from tittle tattle and inside knowledge.

I would imagine if one were a nepo baby or billionaire one could afford to tax deduct his premium newsletter/podcast but I would imagine that even those would have the usual riders re .. markets risky ... don't follow advice ... risky times ... future unknown ... etc etc. that we are all used to from our Australian advisers.

I've given up on trying to second guess equity markets but I was amused by his comments on Gold and Silver, I'll just mention gold as what I know about silver can be fit on the head of a pin. So re gold according to the possibilities from David Hunter, not just on this recent youtube but over the past few months (which if you don't consider as possibilities you should not be trading gold ) these are his points of wisdom. None of them are new to me.

  • It is in a trading range having broken up through $3000 just below $3400
  • It will go to $4000 either during this year or the end of the year
  • Things are very uncertain with Donald J Trump running the world
  • It may retrace to $3200 in the short term
  • Or even $2800 in the medium term
  • Worst case scenario it could go back down to the big breakout 3 years ago at $2100 or $2000
  • It could reach $8,000 or $10,000 given tariffs and central banks, the Japanese and bonds, a long time after David has passed on.
  • In the mid to late 2030's things will be much more clear. ( That leaves me, David and many on ASF too old and feeble to be of use )
He never ever says anything definite. So he has pinned every eventuality and when he is asked about which might happen next week or next month he says he cannot say on youtube as there are bigger mugs who will pay him for that advice.

As I said initially I enjoy his views. I just wish I could make as much out of mine without actually saying anything definite.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
As I said initially I enjoy his views. I just wish I could make as much out of mine without actually saying anything definite.
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Its important to work out the "timeline of the narrative", inverted commas, italics AND bold.

Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, also known as the indeterminacy principle, ... states that there is a limit to the precision with which certain pairs of physical properties, such as position and momentum, can be simultaneously known. In other words, the more accurately one property is measured, the less accurately the other property can be known. So it is with timing and severity of events in the financial world.

And so we come to the 'confidant tipster' where certainty of outcome is assured (if only vaguely, in general terms, hedging bets and wrapping in ambiguity). Taken to extremes, the Kool-aid conviction can be summarised as follows. End of world to be realised in 6 months, narrative pulls in lots of money, promoter is revealed to having put that money to work into 12 month term deposits.
 
I thought my post was the best on David Hunter's recent appearance on some earnest youtuber's show and I don't care if nobody apart from @divs4ever gave it an uptick, which he does for my most non-sensical posts anyway. I challenge anyone to a drool who disagrees with me.

Yours sincerely
Mr. Garpal Gumnut Esq.
Townsville.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I thought my post was the best on David Hunter's recent appearance on some earnest youtuber's show and I don't care if nobody apart from @divs4ever gave it an uptick, which he does for my most non-sensical posts anyway. I challenge anyone to a drool who disagrees with me.

Yours sincerely
Mr. Garpal Gumnut Esq.
Townsville.

gg
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well maybe it is because i learned my math as a paper boy , race-track visitations , and pool-hall denizen , but i see fragility in the greater global economy , i also see a lot of confidence-building hype where it isn't justified

i also learned decades ago to 'listen to all , but think for yourself

so contributors are encouraged even if you have views /ideas i disagree with

AND those ticks manipulate the algos , so more lazy ( or busy ) folks are likely to notice those posts
 
Richard Dale said:
Sounds a bit like our satirical definition for Tech Wreck:

Tech wreck: The end of the dot.com bubble. Surprisingly enough, many observers predicted the wreck in advance. As time went on, more and more of these observers came forward.

More here: https://norgatedata.com/alternative.php
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indeed the global economy would not sail through a proper forensic audit

but how badly are things out of shape ?

i could see issues in 2012 , market veterans might argue things weren't fixed properly after the GFC

but when will it be obvious to all , that things are unwell
 
Just spotted this Felix Zulauf interview. It looks to have been recorded at least a month ago so his calls are dated. The part I took the most interest in is where he talks commodities around 30m and specifically oil and gold at 33.50m. He thought oil to be approaching a major bottom and looking forward he anticipates an oil price of US$150-200 in 2027! He was thinking then that gold was getting overheated and extended in a medium term rally and would top out around $US3,400 and correct for a few months to maybe $US2,600 when it would be time to buy again. He's a long term gold bull.

 
Just scared about how many countries are in massive national debt above 100% of GDP.

Spain 105%, Greece 163%, France 110%, Japan 256% (but mostly held domestically), Italy 134% , Argentina 155%, USA 119% (with a bigger debt coming courtesy of the BBB), Canada 107%.

Warren Buffett has said: "I could end the deficit in five minutes. You just pass a law that says that any time there’s a deficit of more than three percent of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election."​

 

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