June 2025 DDD

[ducati916]

• The S&P 500 gained +6.2% in May, marking its best month since November 2023 and its best May since 1990.
  
• The index snapped a 3-month losing streak, avoiding what would've been its longest monthly decline in over a decade. Steve points out that when a 3-month streak ends with a bang (+5% or more), forward returns have historically been bullish.
  
• Based on the 10 prior signals since 1970, the S&P 500 has always been higher one year out, by an average of +20.7%. One month later? Still higher every single time, by an average of +2.5%.
• 
  
• 
  
• 

The Takeaway: The S&P 500 rose +6.2% in May, ending a 3-month losing streak. When losing streaks are broken with a bang, the S&P 500 has historically trended higher with minimal interruption over the next year.

One of the things I love most about bull markets is how they try to include everyone. Everyone is making money. Whether it’s growth stocks or value stocks. US stocks or international stocks. Gold or bitcoin. It’s all working and we’re all happy. The parties are better. You get the picture. And the reason this is true is because most risk assets participate in bull markets. Even the bad ones join the party eventually. And of course, we can always find bad stocks that are bucking the trend and falling, but I’m talking about subgroups and thematics. Most areas end up working. At the end of a sustained bull market, the list of groups that didn’t go up will be very short. It’s a hallmark characteristic of the good times. The leaders drag the laggards higher. The worst ones end up looking more like the best ones. And not the other way around. This is often referred to as sector rotation. But it’s really just an expansion in participation when it occurs over longer timeframes. I guess what I’m saying is that bull markets make it hard to miss. And this is what has me thinking about healthcare stocks today. Here’s a look at SPDR Healthcare $XLV relative to the S&P 500:

​

I understand there are some political headwinds, but holy cow. How much worse could it get for this battered sector? XLV is at the same level it was back in 2008 relative to the broader market. There has been literally zero alpha here for the last quarter century. The 4-week rate of change (similar to a rolling monthly) recently hit its lowest level in history for the XLV/SPY ratio. The bottom line is being a health care investor has been really terrible for a really long time. But I think we’re near the end of the road here. It appears this extreme momentum reading is signaling exhaustion. It is time for healthcare stocks to participate in this bull market, and even assume a leadership role, if only for the short term. So we figured we’d get ahead of this trend and identify the best candidates to fuel the rebound when it comes. Here’s a table showing the top-performing healthcare stocks since the market bottomed last month.

​

There is a nice mix of names from various industries. And more importantly, there are plenty of bullish setups that are actionable right here, right now. I like the idea of adding exposure to some of these leaders as a way to position for healthcare rotation in the future.

Now a roundup of most sectors for May:





Bit of a data dump.


But basically: US Administration to run hot inflation via QE so that nominal GDP = 6% or higher to reduce debt/GDP. That means stocks higher, Gold higher, probably Crypto higher and Bonds lower, USD lower.

Commodities which NORMALLY would trade higher in an inflationary environment will not. The reason for this is that commodities will become exchangeable as against gold. Gold will be the commodity that benefits from the inflation.


The BIG risk is AI. If AI moves as fast as suggested in the various articles yesterday, and unemployment hits 20%, we will be in a massive DEFLATION where the value of the debt is increasing. This is the 1930's scenario on steroids. The banking system will collapse as it did in the 1930's. This is a risk worth keeping an eye on going forward.

Of course currently AI is the growth story and stocks like NVDA are being massively rewarded, driving further investment in this area. Which of course encourages further development and quicker advances.

Mr Saylor's thesis that BTC benefits from AI is hokum. The continued (for the moment at least) correct strategy is Buy and Hold. As all the copycats load up on BTC at ever increasing prices, yes the bubble increases and early buyers and holders are on paper rich(er).

What happens if you want to sell?

If you are early through the exit, you will be fine. Once everybody starts to sell, profits start to evaporate quickly.

Why would you ever sell?

Because once 21 million is hit there is no new supply for new buyers to enter on. This is actually a problem, not a benefit when the correct strategy is buy and hold.

It's a problem because it has no use value. It's not used for anything. Gold is the (once again) world's reserve asset. You don't need 2 reserve assets. Gold's ascendancy is being driven by China and BRICS in this area. BTC has missed the boat.

This copycat strategy has repeated in financial markets forever. In the 1920's it was Trust companies, in the 1960's Conglomerates, in the 2020's BTC banks. All end badly.

The added complication of TETHER just highlights the potential criminality that is present. Never a good sign.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So instead of the Fed paying interest on Bank reserves, the banks will loan out those reserves to earn a return. To whom will they lend? Why the US Treasury.

So the Banks now have more balance sheet with which to buy UST paper, which will at some point go to YCC.









Full:https://www.reuters.com/markets/cur...iminate-us-trade-deficit-mcgeever-2025-05-27/

From the article:

The United States has run a persistent deficit for the past half-century, as insatiable consumer demand has sucked in goods from around the world and voracious appetite for U.S. assets from overseas has kept capital flowing stateside.


The only exception was in the third quarter of 1980, when the U.S. posted a slender trade surplus of 0.2% of GDP, and trade with the rest of the world almost briefly balanced in 1982 and 1991-92.

But these periods all coincided with - or were the result of - sharp slowdowns in U.S. economic activity that ultimately ended in recession. As growth shrank, import demand slumped and the trade gap narrowed.

The dollar only played a significant role in one of them. In 1987, the trade gap was a then-record 3.1% of GDP. But it had almost disappeared by the early 1990s, largely because of the dollar's 50% devaluation from 1985-87, its biggest-ever depreciation.

That three-year decline was accelerated by the Plaza Accord in September 1985, a coordinated response between the world's economic powers to weaken the dollar following its parabolic rise in the first half of the 1980s.

But that does not mean large depreciations always coincide with reductions in the trade deficit.

The dollar's second-largest decline was a 40% fall between 2002 and mid-2008, just before Lehman Brothers collapsed. But the U.S. trade deficit actually widened throughout most of that period, peaking at a record 6% of GDP in 2005. While it had shrunk by more than three percentage points by 2009, that was due more to plunging imports during the Great Recession than the exchange rate.


The correct question is the USD falls 40% as against what?

Why is the USD (or has been) so strong against foreign currencies? Simply because trade imbalances are recycled into (i) UST and (ii) US assets (NASDAQ).

Since Trump has taken office, BRICS have accelerated the move to gold as the reserve asset and Trump is close to implementing capital controls, precluding US assets being bought.

If not other currencies, which is really just another way of saying a deep US recession, then only gold remains.

Instead of buying USD via UST and/or NASDAQ stocks, trade imbalances are recycled into gold by exporting countries. Over time the USD falls and inflation runs riot, which increases nominal GDP. Because of course the US prints currency to buy oil, manufactures, etc, but this inflation is not sterilised via UST purchases, which over the last 50yrs it has been.

Inflation of course devalues the USD, which inflates away the debt (slow default) and the deficits are paid for via the issue of new debt.


jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

If not other currencies, which is really just another way of saying a deep US recession, then only gold remains.

not only gold , but tangible commodities with durable commodities ( gold , copper , steel, aluminium ) being a better store than soft commodities ( like grain , milk , coffee beans , etc. )

 

[divs4ever]

Over time the USD falls and inflation runs riot, which increases nominal GDP. Because of course the US prints currency to buy oil, manufactures, etc, but this inflation is not sterilised via UST purchases, which over the last 50yrs it has been.

this assumes US exports will increase or at least remain static , what if some nations stop/boycott US products from being sold to them , and the US is forced to consumer more of what it produces locally

you already have several nations veering away from trading in US dollars , how does the US cope if some trade partners insist on direct goods swaps say medicines for grains ? ( gold for oil )

 

[ducati916]

not only gold , but tangible commodities with durable commodities ( gold , copper , steel, aluminium ) being a better store than soft commodities ( like grain , milk , coffee beans , etc. )

An astute point.

China is already moving in this direction:



Full:https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/shanghai-futures-exchange-open-wider-foreigners-bid-internationalise-renminbi-2025-05-27/#:~:text=BEIJING, May 27 (Reuters),to help internationalise the renminbi.

What we are of course talking about is 'Triffin's Dilemma'




The resolution to Triffin’s Dilemma described above is to settle trade in a neutral reserve asset that floats in all currencies. Net settling global imbalances in gold that floats in all currencies would certainly weaken the USD v. creditor currencies like CNY, JPY, and EUR over time.

What would we see if the world was moving toward net settling in a neutral reserve asset?

We would see the US moving toward industrial policy, which is definitely happening.

Or instituting a sovereign wealth fund. This has already been suggested.

We would see multi-currency commodities continuing to expand. Obviously yes, from the above article.

We would see China making the CNY more convertible through gold and commodities. Again, yes from the above article.

China is currently sterilising its net trade surplus via gold:



The level of gold imports as against China's trade surplus has gold valued at $22,000oz (see previous post on this).

Now this is to your point:

This chart is Gold/SPGSI (Gold/Commodity index).





Gold is the inflation hedge.

Commodities will price in relation to gold, not USD.




Of course the BTC brigade are trying to jump on this train:






Without an actual end-use, what value does BTC actually have? Remember to date, every use case that the BTC brigade have put forward has been WRONG. LOL.

The only strategy that has worked to date is buy and hold. Which will continue to work for a little while. The problem is when the correct strategy is to cash in. Then the rush to the exit will take it close to zero.

The problem is touted as a benefit: ie. a limited supply.


From Strazza, Earnings:


We covered a lot of ground last week.

From some of the world's most important companies to small-cap Aerospace & Defense names, earnings season continues to give us plenty to chew on.

Some stocks are following through to the upside after strong earnings reactions, while others are struggling with overhead supply.

In this week’s recap, we'll highlight the most important moves and where the next opportunities may be.

What stood out to us last week ​

• Monday:
  • Intuit $INTU reported a double beat and closed at a fresh all-time high. The stock resolved a massive basing pattern, entering a brand-new primary uptrend.
  • Deckers Outdoor $DECK reported a double beat and was crushed for it. The stock resolved a textbook distribution pattern, entering a brand-new primary downtrend.
• Tuesday:
  • No S&P 500 earnings reactions, but we broke down the bullish continuation pattern in Construction Partners $ROAD after its 5th consecutive positive earnings reaction.
  • The stock is consolidating at its all-time high from late last year. We think a fresh leg higher is on deck.
• Wednesday:
  • Autozone $AZO reported mixed results and got punished for it.
  • The stock has been punished for 4 of its last 5 reports, as the company has recently been going through growing pains.
• Thursday:
  • No S&P 500 earnings reactions, but we broke down the Heico $HEI, where the stock made a gap-n-go to new all-time highs in reaction to its latest earnings report.
  • It's one of the best technical and fundamental stocks in Aerospace & Defense $ITA, which has soared 37% since bottoming on April 7, 2025.
• Friday:
  • Nvidia $NVDA reported a double beat and rallied. The stock closed May three dollars below its highest monthly close ever.
  • Salesforce $CRM reported a double beat and traded lower in reaction. The stock is stuck in a massive range as the market has consistently punished it for reporting earnings.

What we're looking forward to next week ​

After Tuesday's closing bell, we'll hear from the Cybersecurity powerhouse CrowdStrike $CRWD. The stock has been punished for its last 2 earnings reports, but the new all-time highs in price suggest the market's anticipating better results this quarter.

The up-and-coming Cybersecurity company Rubrik $RBRK, is expected to report earnings Thursday after the closing bell. The stock rallied 27.79% and 20.44% after its last 2 earnings reports. We're expecting fireworks again.

We'll also hear from Guidewire $GWRE, Dollar Tree $DLTR, Docusign $DOCU, and many more.

There will be a lot to unpack here at The Beat Report.

We're most looking forward to the Broadcom $AVGO earnings report after Thursday's closing bell, and here's why:


Broadcom is one of the world's most important semiconductor and infrastructure software companies.

It’s riding the backbone of multiple secular trends.

This $1.14T giant designs and develops everything from networking chips and broadband solutions to enterprise software that powers the cloud, telecom, and AI industries.

The company’s recent results have shown solid growth in key areas like networking and custom silicon, which are the foundational building blocks of the AI data center revolution.

Meanwhile, its software segment (bolstered by acquisitions like VMware) continues to deliver high-margin recurring revenue.

They had their best earnings reaction ever in December after posting a blockbuster earnings report.

But there hasn't been upside follow-through...

The stock has been stuck in a range for months despite its fundamental strength.

That’s why Thursday’s earnings report is so important.

If AVGO can deliver another market beat and rally, then we think the stock will close next week at a fresh all-time high.


jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

What would we see if the world was moving toward net settling in a neutral reserve asset?

first your tangible asset must be fairly durable , and comparatively easy to store physically , otherwise you run the risk of futures market rigging , some tangible commodities do not have the life-span to become a reserve asset ( aka a store of value ) , so gone are pork bellies , soy beans ( coffee beans probably lose flavour too quickly as well )

so one major beneficiary would be secure storage ( for LARGE holders ) , those providing effective security should get a tailwind as well , logistics .. yeah but would it be enough to move the needle ( the trend would be towards neutral trade balances on a per nation basis , so i don't see a major bump in goods hauled , they may even reduce in some nations )

 

[ducati916]

Full:https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/02/business/buy-now-pay-later-groceries.html






Hundreds of times a year, the U.S. Treasury auctions off debt securities — bills, bonds, and notes. This is how Uncle Sam borrows the billions needed to finance the government's deficits.

The big picture: Top financial and business leaders, including some who served at high levels in President Trump's first term, are increasingly worried that something could go awry.

• The fear is that not enough buyers will show up one day, resulting in a damaging loss of confidence and a spike in all Americans' borrowing costs.
• If that were to happen, leaders warn, it could cause lasting damage by shifting the entire U.S. economy into a new, higher interest-rate equilibrium.

What they're saying: "If you want an unpredictably wide swing in volatility, have a failed debt auction in the United States," Gary Cohn, a former Trump White House adviser and president of Goldman Sachs, told Neil in a panel Friday.

• "We have the most robust debt market in the world until we don't," he said. "If there lacks interest from foreign investors, and there lacks interest from U.S. investors ... rates will move out dramatically."
• "One or two auctions later, you could be in a completely different system," said Cohn. "And then when the government gets to a point where it can't efficiently finance itself, we have a completely different position. And when we're there, it's almost too late to deal with."
• Speaking later Friday morning, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that "you are going to see a crack in the bond market, OK?" adding, "It is going to happen."
• "If we don't have growth and we have these types of deficits, we're going to have an economic environment that's going to create real issues, and at some point, the bond market is going to have a problem with that," said Steven Mnuchin, Trump's first term Treasury secretary, later that day.

Zoom in: Former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan discussed the role that "primary dealers," the major financial institutions that play a crucial role in the auction process, would have in trying to arrest a failed auction.

• "We could see a day where ... we find out that the 25 primary dealers just filled 50% of the book because the auction was otherwise going to fail and we put a gun to their head and said 'Buy it all.'"

Yes, but: In that scenario, with the government strong-arming banks into buying Treasurys they don't want, things have gone horribly wrong.

What's next: House Financial Services Committee chair French Hill said that a task force led by U.S. Rep. Frank Lucas is examining questions about monetary policy and market resilience for Treasury securities.

• "What is the role of the Fed and the private sector in ensuring that we have adequate Treasury auction space?" Hill said.
• Lucas will be making recommendations on what Congress might do to strengthen the market's structure, said Hill.

Of note: The "big, beautiful bill" of tax and spending cuts making its way through Congress would increase fiscal deficits — and therefore bond issuance — by $3 trillion to $4 trillion relative to current law over the coming decade, per the Congressional Budget Office and private-sector modelers.

• In other words, the government will likely need to auction off considerably more Treasury securities if the bill is enacted.

​

TACOs for Everyone​

Every so often an idea goes truly viral. A four-letter acronym always helps — think of Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), There Is No Alternative (TINA), or the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China). Now it’s TACO — Trump Always Chickens Out — trade. My friend and former colleague Rob Armstrong coined the term in a Financial Times column published May 2, to explain the market rally. Three weeks later, it’s everywhere. Here are references in stories on the terminal (not necessarily written by Bloomberg): The reference in Armstrong’s original column was several paragraphs down: The recent rally has a lot to do with markets realising that the US administration does not have a very high tolerance for market and economic pressure, and will be quick to back off when tariffs cause pain. This is the Taco theory: Trump Always Chickens Out. But why doesn’t that translate to resurgent growth hopes, higher yields and more expensive oil? When he wrote this, the TACO trend was already clear. We’d seen the “Liberation Day” tariffs, the 90-day delay on them (bar China), a threat to fire Jerome Powell from the Federal Reserve that was reversed within days, and speculation that China would get a reprieve: Since then, there has been a huge but predictable concession on Chinese tariffs, which could never have stayed at 145%. Then 50% levies announced on the European Union were rescinded within days, a court order stopping the “Liberation Day” tariffs was stayed within 24 hours, and steel tariffs were doubled to 50% (starting Wednesday). There is more rhetoric against China. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act has taken shape, reassuring markets that fiscal policy won’t tighten after all, and an increasingly erratic Elon Musk has beaten a retreat. “Liberation Day” provoked a spasm of terror; now declining equity volatility shows everyone is gorging on tacos: TACO philosophy goes beyond cynical traders. Absolute Strategy Research’s most recent quarterly survey of global asset allocators, responsible for trillions, found that they were truly “risk on” despite the apparent regime change in global trade. This is their composite optimism measure including the business cycle, profits, and inflation: The optimism incorporates bearishness on the US dollar. The proportion expecting it to fall over the next year is the highest in the survey’s 10-year history: They are also moving in a bearish direction on US inflation, which is still above the Fed’s target: This is a strange combination. If the allocators are right about inflation, that would imply a serious failure for the Fed, to be met by higher rates, higher yields, and a stronger dollar. Implicitly, allocators seem to think the Fed will give up. That’s bad for the dollar, and sends money out of the US, but it’s not a problem for US equities. The FT’s Armstrong commented a month ago that you’d expect oil prices and bond yields to rise much more if people really thought that the administration was making a dash for growth. That holds good; oil prices have risen a bit but fallen back since then, while 10-year yields have provoked further alarm about bond vigilantes while staying well short of recent highs: Ultimately, this issue boils down to cynicism. After taking Trump very seriously for a week or two after “Liberation Day,” markets are working on the assumption that he can safely be ignored. Tariffs aren’t happening, and the administration will do whatever delivers short-term growth. It will be good for stocks even if it means more inflation. That raises two issues. First, Trump has sincerely believed in protectionism for decades. His latest pronouncements suggest he hasn’t abandoned it. Secondly, if TACO is right, then Trumpian threats are of no use even as negotiating tactics. The president gets this, and dislikes the notion that he is chickening out. If he wants to maintain negotiating leverage, and believes in protectionism, it follows that before long he will show he’s serious. If he reaches the point where he doesn’t chicken out, the market might choke on its tacos.

China


China’s economic recovery is ticking nearly all the right boxes, save its highly depressed housing sector. Progress is being underpinned by the 90-day trade truce, which is boosting manufacturing and exports. If anyone has something to gain from TACOs, it’s China. Thus, Trump’s latest social media post might alarm Beijing:


With Washington now accusing Beijing of violating the truce, and revising a raft of immigration policies to target China (particularly when it comes to students), the tension persists. However, the latest economic data look very different from the picture drawn by Trump’s post, and should inspire some confidence that Beijing’s measures are working. May’s manufacturing purchasing manager’s index, although still in contraction territory, was up to 49.5. On the other hand, non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.3, pointing to a marginally slower pace of expansion:


As long as the truce stays intact, it should spur the economy. Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu argues that the resumption of shipments to the US following the pause, along with potential stockpiling by US importers to guard against the risk of a return to confiscatory tariffs, should shore up exports and related manufacturing. What’s more, the first quarter’s fiscal stimulus proved timelier than last year’s version, providing more substantial support to growth. China Beige Book analysis of company results shows that revenue growth improved on-month and on-year:


A deeper dive into the drivers reveals strength from services and retail, both crucial to Beijing’s aim to pivot from tariff-exposed manufacturing. Retail’s strong showing came largely from food and apparel, while auto sales also rebounded. China Beige Book partially attributes the resilience in services to the extended May Day holiday, a litmus test for spending in the aftermath of US tariffs. In the end, “Chinese consumers scored unusually high marks.” It's too early to conclude that a tectonic shift toward consumption is at last underway — but these results tend to vindicate the policy to vary growth drivers:


This has meant gains for investors. The MSCI China Index is one of the world’s better performing this year. The TACO trade worked in China, where stocks fell but then rebounded after “Liberation Day.” However, mainland investors were never as excited as international managers buying stocks quoted in Hong Kong or New York:


Bank of America’s Winnie Wu notes that what she calls “new consumption” stocks are outperforming. She has a new acronym: “We prefer stocks with clear value propositions in the 'HAPPI' (Health & Wellness, Affordable, Pragmatic, Personal/emotional value, and IP) themes to large-cap premium brands or market proxy players.”


Nearly eight months after the pivot to “Whatever it takes,” property is showing signs of life. Residential realtors report better price and sales growth, according to the China Beige Book. At least the harsh impact of Covid-zero restrictions is beginning to wear off, although the recovery is vulnerable:


Despite improving market sentiment, China’s economy and consumption growth are far off from the finished article. Wu notes the sluggish property market, elevated youth unemployment, deflationary pressure, and headwinds from anti-corruption efforts. Traditional consumer sectors such as hotels and catering, and transportation lag the MSCI China Index year-to-date.

Thanks to Trump policy uncertainty, Shu argues that the government might opt to watch and wait before signaling new policies. For now, the likely priority is to execute the expansionary budget announced in March.

The time for further monetary policy easing might be in August after second-quarter GDP, a politburo meeting in July, and the expiry of the 90-day tariff pause. Beijing knows that the US doesn’t want to appear to back down. Its response will be critical.



jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

​ Oil News​ ​ - US-China trade war and OPEC+’s flooding of oil markets with additional supply have lifted refinery margins across the world, with gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel cracks all staying in double digits since the beginning of May. - Global refining margins, as calculated by consultancy Wood Mackenzie, rose to their highest since March 2024 last month, reaching $8.37 per barrel. - Some refiners might be scratching their heads whether early 2025 shutdowns were the best possible outcome - Shell’s Wesseling and BP’s Gelsenkirchen refineries (Germany), as well as Petroineos’ Grangemouth plant (UK), all shut down for good in April-May. - Whilst Europe and the United States shutter downstream capacity, upcoming giants such as Nigeria’s 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery or Mexico’s 340,000 b/d Dos Bocas continue to be plagued with operational disruptions. Market Movers - US shale driller EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) agreed to buy Encino Acquisition Partners for 5.6 billion, greatly expanding into the Utica shale basin with the addition of 675,000 net core acres and some 235,000 boe/d of production. - US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) entered exclusive negotiations with Canadian fuel retailer North Atlantic to divest its 82.89% stake in French retail company Esso for a reported sum of 300 million. - Austrian oil company OMV (VIE:OMV) sold its 5% stake in the Ghasha concession of the UAE, developed alongside ADNOC and ENI, to Russia’s private major Lukoil for a total consideration of 594 million. - US midstream giant Energy Transfer (NYSE:ET) signed a 20-year term deal with Japan’s Kyushu Electric (TYO:9508) to supply up to 1 million tonnes of LNG from Lake Charles LNG, after taking up a 5 mtpa position in the project. Tuesday, June 03, 2025 The failure of Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran talks did not come as a surprise to oil markets, but both outcomes have confirmed that the geopolitical risk premium will be around for some time. Canadian wildfires could add even more upward momentum to oil prices, while OPEC+ production decisions will continue to be a driving force for prices. The Great Eight Sticks to 411. Eight OPEC+ countries that have started unwinding their 2022 voluntary production cuts agreed to another 411,000 b/d increase for July, the third straight month of expedited output hikes, bringing back 62% of their erstwhile curbs. Canadian Wildfires Scare Oil Sands Producers. With two oil sands operators shuttingplants around Alberta’s Fort McMurray production hub, Canadian oil production is now some 350,000 b/d lower due to widespread wildfires, with Cenovus’ (TSO:CVE) Christina Lake site taking the biggest output hit so far. Iran Talks Likely to End in Failure. Iran is poised to reject US President Trump’s proposal for a new nuclear deal with Iran, according to top Iranian diplomats, after Tehran bemoaned the lack of sanctions-lifting guarantees and refused to ship its entire portfolio of enriched uranium abroad. Trump Wants to Scrap US Heating Oil Reserve. The Trump administration’s proposed 2026 budget seeks to eliminate the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, containing 1 million barrels of diesel for force majeure events such as hurricanes, selling the products to boost budget revenues by 80-90 million. Metal Tariffs Come to the Forefront Again. US President Trump announced that he is planning to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminium from the current 25% rate to 50%, reportedly taking effect on June 4, adding pressure on prices in the world’s largest steel importer. Petronas Mulls Full Canada Exit. Petronas, Malaysia’s national oil company, is reportedly considering selling its Canadian business, mostly focused on Montney gas production holding 800,000 gross acres, for a consideration of $6-7 billion, having bought Progress Energy for $5.3 billion in 2012. Iron Ore Falls on Weak Chinese Manufacturing. Asian iron ore futures slumped to their lowest in two months after Trump signaled new US steel tariffs and China's manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in eight months, sending the July Singapore contract to $94 per metric tonne. Gabon Roils Manganese Export Flows. The government of Gabon announced an export ban on unrefined manganese ore to be imposed from 2029 onwards, mirroring Guinea’s bauxite and Mali’s gold policy moves, forcing mining firms such as France’s Eramet (EPA:ERA) to refine the ore domestically. US Cancels Biden-Era Green Projects. The US Energy Department cancelled 24 green energy project awards approved by the previous Biden administration, worth some $3.7 billion, including a 332 million subsidy to Exxon’s Baytown refinery CCS pilot and 500 million to Heidelberg Materials. Azerbaijan Lures Oil Majors. Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR signed new exploration agreements with BP (NYSE:BP) and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), with the former eyeing a farm-in to the Karabakh and ADUA fields whilst the latter will explore the Ganja-Yevlakh-Aghjabadi prospects. IATA Remains Hopeful on SAF. The International Air Transport Association expectssales of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to double year-over-year to 2 million tonnes in 2025, equivalent to 0.7% of airlines’ consumption, acknowledging that this would cost consumers some $4.4 billion. Brazil Launches New Licensing Round. Brazil’s hydrocarbons regulator ANP will be offering 13 blocks in its upcoming open acreage licensing round for pre-salt blocks, 7 in the Santos Basin and 6 in the Campos Basin, seeking to boost exploration drilling in the country’s most proven oil play. Venezuela’s Oil Exports Remain Steady. Venezuelan crude exports were unchanged in May at 780,000 b/d after state oil firm PDVSA managed to maintain output levels despite Chevron’s departure from the country, boosting oil sales to China and curbing exports to Indian refiners.

• Silver surged +5.8% today, marking its best day in over a year. It’s only Monday, but futures are on pace for their highest weekly close since 2012.
  
  
• Sam notes that Silver is testing key resistance at $35/oz, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 2011 to 2020. Silver has failed here several times—twice in 2012, and more recently in October and March.
  
  
• A decisive breakout above $35/oz could send Silver to all-time highs near $49/oz. Returning to all-time highs would complete a 14-year baseand unlock significantly more upside.
  

The Takeaway: Following its best day in over a year, Silver is testing a potential inflection point at $35. A successful breakout would set the stage for all-time highs and complete a 14-year base.

The way I learned it is that gold moves first. And then copper. And finally crude oil. That’s the intermarket theory and order I’m familiar with for commodities. Jason and the guys at Gold Rush do a great job of covering intermarket relationships and what they all mean. They’ve been all over these commodity trends all year. Some have been great, like gold. Others are messy, like copper. And some downright bad, like crude. It’s been a mixed bag to say the least. But today, all the buzz is about silver. It’s having its best day of the year as it rips higher out of a bull flag.

​

Our volatility squeeze indicator suggests a big move is brewing, and there is plenty of runway considering the pattern hasn’t even broken out yet. 35.25 is the level. I think a major resolution is underway for silver and I'm anticipating a gold-like up-leg to follow. Who knows how high it can go, but there is a lot of catching up to do. And if we think back to that intermarket routine where gold leads and copper goes next… Well, silver- being a quasi precious metal with plenty of industrial uses, should logically fall right in between gold and copper. So, for commodities bulls, I’d say everything is coming together quite nicely. Meanwhile, copper is getting antsy with a couple of false starts and short-term volatility spikes recently. There’s a coil that resembles the one in silver, and it could resolve higher any day now.

​

Let’s explore this intermarket exercise and assume that these things both happen. And to be clear, while they haven’t yet, it’s where things appear to be headed. So imagine that copper and silver break out and look a lot more like gold in the future. What might we expect crude oil to do in this kind of environment? Do you think crude is breaking down from a massive top while these things are happening? Participation is expanding for commodities but crude is resolving lower? No way. It’s not the bet I’m making. Today, all these markets moved together with serious upside momentum. And so did silver. I think we will see more of that in the future. So if silver goes. Look for copper to go next. And while crude could take its time, don’t expect it to move in the opposite direction. We sold a double in our SLV calls in the Breakout Multiplier portfolio today. We also have some silver miner calls that are up roughly 3x already. I think our copper plays are next.

Three numbers are sending a spasm of concern through Wall Street: 899. That’s the clause of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act currently before the Senate that gives the Treasury secretary the power to levy retaliatory taxeson the US investments of foreign countries that have levied “unfair taxes” on US companies. This isn’t a legal column, but you might try useful explainers from Baker McKenzie, or Skadden Arps, or McDermott Will & Emery.

The upshot is that the Treasury must tell Congress each quarter which countries apply “extraterritorial and discriminatory” taxes (the EU’s digital services tax is a prime example), and can then levy a 5% tax surcharge on their investments in the US, which could rise in stages to 20%. This matters because:

• Capital flows can be stopped far more easily than trade in goods;
• It gives the US a new weapon for negotiations (or to shoot itself in the foot);
• Once passed by Congress, it has stronger legal grounding than tariffs;
• It’s really likely to happen; and
• Future Democratic administrations might well leave it in place.

Financially, the chief effects would be to weaken the dollar, a key administration aim, and to help foreign markets outperform the US. That’s because the tax would make US holdings more expensive, while the way the bill is structured would permanently add a new risk, as the unfair taxers list would be revised every three months. If American stocks and bonds are made riskier and more expensive, it behooves foreign investors to take money home.

Stephen Miran, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, argued in his widely read User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading Systemthat: “Demand for reserve assets leads to significant currency overvaluation with real economic consequences.” Reducing demand for those assets should thus weaken the dollar.

So far, the administration is getting what it wants. Bloomberg’s dollar index, comparing against both developed and emerging currencies, is at a two-year low:


Meanwhile, US equities have begun to lag the rest of the world after a protracted period of leadership (known as the American Exceptionalism trade):


The strength of the dollar and US equities is of course related. Over the last 30 years, they have moved almost exactly in line with each other, with the dollar (on a real or nominal basis) gaining as US stocks outdid everyone else. If this trend unwinds, there’s a long way to go:


This has left a spectacularly negative US net international investment position (US investments overseas minus foreign investments in the US), of some $26 trillion. This began in earnest after the Global Financial Crisis and went into overdrive during the American Exceptionalism trade since Covid. Much money could be taxed — or repatriated:


The problem with this is that foreign demand for US assets reduces American yields, making it cheaper for Uncle Sam to finance its deficit, and for companies to raise equity capital. Miran described estimates that the dollar’s reserve status saved Americans between 50 and 60 basis points in interest costs as “fictional.” That could be put to the test soon.

If it seems strange to discourage others from investing in the US, Lew Lukens of Signum Global Advisors says: “The president’s viewpoint is that there is such immense foreign appetite to invest in the US that it is not at risk of being thrown off course.” That’s contestable: Emerging markets will offer a chance to check the hypothesis.


Among the biggest and unlikeliest winners from the decline of American exceptionalism have been emerging-market currencies. The Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) trade — a belief that tariffs won’t happen — has given them a tailwind to counteract the trade uncertainty. JPMorgan’s index of EM currencies is at its highest since October:


The steepening of the US yield curve as fiscal concerns mount has also helped EM currencies. These charts by Barclays’ Marek Raczko explain the dollar’s problems:


In the first chart, Raczko shows that curve steepening is correlated with a weak dollar, because the market expects more accommodative Federal Reserve policy. But the second chart illustrates that the recent steepening is instead driven by a rise in the US term premium (the extra return that investors demand to take the risk of lending to the government over longer periods). Normally, that would send money to the dollar as a haven, but not this time:

The sign of USD correlation with the US term premia has flipped, meaning that the higher term premia is now associated with a weaker dollar. This suggests that the market is challenging the US's safe-haven status and trading the dollar in line with US policy concerns.

Inflows to emerging markets also help. Macquarie’s Viktor Shvets shows that EM excluding China last month recorded the largest net inflow since December 2023. Greatest beneficiaries included India ($2.3 billion), Taiwan ($7.6 billion), and Brazil ($2 billion). That reversed a string of net outflows:


TACO is also fueling a surge back into the carry trade – where investors borrow in a low-yielding currency and invest where rates are higher (usually in EM). Carry trades generally require low volatility, so this is vulnerable to any sign that President Donald Trump won’t chicken out (which would amp up volatility). A JPMorgan Chase & Co. measure of global currency volatility dropped to 8.9% on Monday from as high as 11% in early April, helping Bloomberg’s EM carry trade to a seven-year high:


Currency volatility remains elevated compared to its lows before the spectacular unwind of the yen carry trade last July. Societe Generale SA’s Phoenix Kalen argues that “positive global growth considerations” are outweighing high volatility, which bolsters EM FX. It is hard to know how long this attractiveness will last.

In Latin America, which offers some of the highest real yields globally, prospects hinge on upcoming elections. Brandywine Global’s Michael Arno adds that major polls in Chile, Peru, Colombia, and Brazil this year and next could pivot the region from the current left-leaning administrations to more centrist, pro-market leadership. That would reinforce investor confidence and attract more capital. For now, Brandywine shows that Latam’s yields are hard to resist:


In Central and Eastern Europe, Arno believes that Hungary, Poland, and Czechia are well placed to benefit as fiscal stimulus and targeted industrial policy gain traction in the euro zone. Ultimately, EMs benefit most from the decline of US exceptionalism, giving central banks room to cut rates, as noted by Points of Return, and letting fiscal authorities spend without worrying about tanking the currency.

In a world where no one is exceptional, as Macquarie’s Shvets puts it, EMs are no longer penalized. At best, he calls the fall of American exceptionalism a process, not a collapse — creating conditions for a gradual rise in US risk premia while avoiding disorderly asset repricing:

Investors will continue narrowing spreads between US and non-US assets, supporting EMU and Japan. Ditto for EMs, especially those with stronger secular drivers, with India, Korea, and Taiwan standouts.

US fundamentals remain robust so a stronger dollar in the medium term cannot be ruled out — though section 899 taxes might threaten a more disorderly retreat. The dollar is merely down, not out, but emerging markets welcome the break.



jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Stablecoins



Full:https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/stablecoins-to-the-treasurys-rescue/


JPM to issue loans against BTC

In case there were any doubt, today's developments put them to rest. If the economy starts to seriously buckle due to the trade war, Trump will blame the Federal Reserve and its leader, Jerome Powell. The big picture: Trump has made no secret that he thinks the Fed should be proactively cutting interest rates to ease the pain of any economic bumps ahead — despite the inflation risk also fueled by tariffs. Today brought some new evidence that there are, indeed, bumps ahead. Driving the news: The private sector added just 37,000 jobs in May, payroll processor ADP said — down from the 60,000 jobs added in April and well below the 110,000 jobs economists anticipated. It was the second straight month of soft hiring in the ADP data — but this time, Trump noticed. Six minutes after the data release, Trump posted on Truth Social: "ADP NUMBER OUT!!! "Too Late" Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!! Europe has lowered NINE TIMES!" Separately, (and after Trump's post), the Institute for Supply Management said that its index of activity in service industries fell to 49.9 in May, from 51.6 in April. That puts it narrowly in contraction territory — 50 is the line. Its new orders index fell particularly sharply, to 46.4 from 52.3, a sign that even in a month of trade war de-escalation, underlying business activity was softening. Between the lines: The two reports are evidence — which has been scant so far — that economic activity may be starting to buckle under the pressure of erratic trade policy. The president's social media comments make clear that he intends to shift blame for any weakening onto the Fed, which has left interest rates unchanged so far this year, as it awaits clear evidence of whether higher inflation or labor market softening is the more urgent concern. What they're saying: Comments released with the ISM survey show the origins of companies' economic angst. "Tariff variability has thrown residential construction supply chains into chaos," said an unnamed construction firm. "Tariffs remain a challenge, as it is not clear what duties apply," said a survey respondent in the information sector. "The best plan is still to delay decisions to purchase where possible." "Tariffs have increased the cost of doing business," said a firm in transportation and warehousing. "It's too early to tell what the lasting impact of this will be. ... Overall, we are seeing a leveling off in business activity; time will tell if this is temporary or long lasting." Yes, but: Speaking to reporters today, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson was less pessimistic about the state of the labor market — despite the soft number. The weak data doesn't point to a collapsing labor market, she said, "but there is hiring hesitancy." Private employers added the fewest jobs since March 2023, when ADP's data showed the economy shed 52,000 jobs. "We all know the labor market stayed strong despite that 2023 loss," Richardson said. Of note: The nation's smallest businesses — those with fewer than 50 employees — lost more jobs than larger firms. "I always say, 'as goes small businesses, so goes the economy.' This weakness is something that we're paying close attention to," Richardson said, adding that small firms were most vulnerable to trade policy uncertainty.

Within the Federal Reserve, officials have said they need to wait until there is more clear-cut evidence of how trade and other policies are rippling through the economy before adjusting interest rates. "I think there's a great deal of uncertainty about where tariff policies are going to settle out and also, when they do settle out, what will be the implications for the economy for growth and for employment," Powell told reporters last month. "I think it's too early to know that," he added. Zoom out: Trump wants the Fed to move to preemptively shield the economy. His own policies make that hard. "The fact that this number is getting [so] much attention just signals how important economic data is in this moment," Richardson told Axios when asked about Trump's callout of the report. "When things are going really bad, it's easy to make a call. When things are really good, it's easy to make a call. When things are murky, it's harder — I think we're in that state." What's next: This afternoon, the Fed releases its Beige Book, a compilation of anecdotal information from businesses around the country, which can be particularly useful at economic turning points. Friday, the Labor Department releases May jobs data. Two weeks from today, the Fed's policy committee concludes its next meeting.

I've seen so many of these situations over the years. An attack happens. A pipeline gets hit. A bridge goes down. At first, it feels like just another headline. But over time, these events do more than disrupt supply chains—they shift the narrative. They force the market to reprice risk. Not because something immediate changes, but because the range of outcomes expands. That’s when commodities move—not out of panic, but out of recognition that the world just became less stable than it was yesterday. This week’s attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge is one of those moments. It may seem like a regional conflict, but the implications are global. Oil spiked Monday morning, and we’re seeing follow-through today. Natural gas and other hard assets are catching a bid. When events like this start to stack, they don’t just drive headlines—they drive trends. And this one is just getting started. At 4:44 a.m., the bridge exploded.

​

A literal breach—support columns beneath the 12-mile Kerch Strait Bridge were torn apart by what was called an underwater drone carrying over 1,100 kg of TNT. There were no civilian casualties. But the damage wasn’t just structural. It was symbolic. This was Ukraine’s third strike on the bridge since the war began. Each time, the message has escalated: Crimea is not secure, Russia is not untouchable and the illusion of control is cracking. And markets noticed. Oil jumped Monday morning—and we’re seeing follow through today. Crude oil jumped over 2% as headlines broke, finishing Monday up 3.6%. Natural gas spiked 7%. Other commodity linked assets moved higher too. Not because the bridge is a major supply route—but because it's a pressure point in a much larger system. Geopolitics don’t move prices every day. But they shape the tone. And when major infrastructure gets hit, risk starts to reprice—quickly. Ukraine followed the bridge attack with Operation Spider’s Web—a multi drone strike that reportedly damaged or destroyed 40 Russian aircraft, including strategic bombers. One attack hit logistics. The other hit deterrence. Together, they shift the narrative. This is how commodities catch fire. You don’t need a supply cut. You just need the fear of one. And when Russia feels cornered, it turns to the same playbook—weaponize energy, restrict flows, disrupt trade routes, and force the West to feel it at the pump. We’ve seen this pattern before: In 1973, OPEC didn’t cut supply overnight. Then, they did. In 1991, the Gulf War spiked oil before a single barrel was offline. In 2022, futures rallied before sanctions hit—they priced in the unknown. This week fits that same mold. Here’s what matters now: Ukraine has reach. Russia’s infrastructure is vulnerable. Commodities are reacting. Volatility is back. You don’t need to predict the next move. You just need to understand the regime: fragility equals premium. When bridges fall, confidence does too.

Zuckerberg’s Meta Platforms positioned itself for the long term. The tech giant entered into a 20-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Constellation Energy to secure 1,121 megawatts of nuclear energy from the Clinton Clean Energy Center in Illinois. The agreement will commence in June 2027, ensuring the long-term operation of the Clinton Clean Energy Center and preserving more than 1,100 local jobs. Meta’s 20-year nuclear deal signals a new reality: scaling AI requires scaling energy. The company writes, At Meta, we’re building AI technologies that are transforming the global economy and the way people connect. Our data centers enable these innovations, housing the infrastructure that brings these technologies to life – and we prioritize operating our data centers efficiently, matching our electricity with 100% clean and renewable energy and exploring emergent energy technologies. As we look toward our future energy needs in advancing AI, we recognize the immense value of nuclear power in providing reliable, firm electricity, and the role nuclear projects can have in supporting local economies and strengthening America’s energy leadership.

Recommended Reading​

​

Vaclav Smil’s Energy and Civilization explains how every leap in human progress — agriculture, industry, technology — was powered by energy breakthroughs. Energy is the only universal currency… Humans are the only species that can systematically harness energies outside their bodies, using the power of their intellect and an enormous variety of artifacts from the simplest tools to internal combustion engines and nuclear reactors. The epochal transition to fossil fuels affected everything: agriculture, industry, transportation, weapons, communication, economics, urbanization, quality of life, politics and the environment.

Full:https://www.fastcompany.com/9134371...drones-the-old-fashioned-way-shooting-at-them

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

In Trump's 'plan', inflation HAS to run wild so indeed let it run Mr Powell...
One elephant in the room, is AI vs jobs...
Not limited to the US either...

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

In Trump's 'plan', inflation HAS to run wild so indeed let it run Mr Powell...
One elephant in the room, is AI vs jobs...
Not limited to the US either...

I'm now of the belief that AI is one of the greatest threats to man since the plague, or smallpox or Stalin or some other abomination. All AI should be destroyed and all it's semiconductor and associated multibillionaires and architects put to the sword save for this guy Yoshua Bengio.

Introducing LawZero - Yoshua Bengio

I am launching a new non-profit AI safety research organization called LawZero, to prioritize safety over commercial imperatives. This organization has been created in response…

yoshuabengio.org

gg

 

[divs4ever]

In Trump's 'plan', inflation HAS to run wild so indeed let it run Mr Powell...
One elephant in the room, is AI vs jobs...
Not limited to the US either...

but , but , but if we let AI run rampant ... what are we going to do with all those excess politicians and health & safety officers ?

just asking

 

[ducati916]

​

Random Data, Random Walk​

The US market is having a difficult week. While the data in Europe has unexpectedly been upbeat of late, the US has suffered a series of negative surprises: Wednesday’s first disquieting sign came from ADP, the payroll group, which every month provides its own preview of private sector employment ahead of the official numbers (due on Friday). They showed net hiring almost evaporating. The ADP has been more negative for the last three months and is certainly not foolproof, but in the years since the pandemic, it has tended to move in the same direction. It needs to be taken seriously: Then came the Institute of Supply Management’s survey of the services sector, which is now the bulk of the US economy. It has been in strong health even as manufacturing has languished, and even enjoys a big trade surplus with the rest of the world. So it came as an unpleasant surprise when the headline number dropped below 50. The advantage for the US over Europe, which this survey had been signaling, has largely disappeared: In the afternoon, the Federal Reserve published its Beige Book, which comes out ahead of each Federal Open Market Committee and smooshes together anecdotal reports from the central bank’s regional branches. It’s impressionistic, but it’s easy with current technology to count words and produce something quantitative. This is Oxford Economics’ index of the strength of economic activity, and it suggests Fed officers are more negative than they have ever been outside of official recessions: No prizes for guessing what the Fed’s contacts talked about most. Mentions of tariffs continue to rise, even though this survey covered the period after the administration had backed down on the main threats it made on “Liberation Day:” US equities registered another small rise, but had their worst day relative to bonds since April, as yields fell significantly. The dollar had a bad one, too. All of that makes sense on a day of much so-so economic news. Now the caveats start. These numbers were produced under massive tariff uncertainty. Traders can blithely assume that President Donald Trump “always chickens out” and keep on taking risks, but people trying to run businesses have to be more careful. The lull in activity might easily end as soon as there is clarity that tariffs aren’t happening. Then there’s the problem that the data may not be trustworthy. Government cuts mean fewer people to do statistical grunt work. Calculating inflation, in particular, is a labor-intensive endeavor. And so it was chilling to see the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ announcement that in April it suspended consumer price index data collection entirely in Lincoln, Nebraska, and Provo, Utah, followed this month by Buffalo, New York. This is not an entirely new problem. Points of Return wrote 18 months ago of the sharp fall in response rates to labor surveys. “Garbage in, garbage out” tends to hold good: If the government lacks people to collect data, and people don’t cooperate, it’s easy to cast doubt on the numbers. That’s one explanation for why such ostensibly poor figures have left the futures market still only pricing in one fed funds rate cut, which will not happen until September. Two months ago, futures priced in three cuts by then, at a time when the macro data looked stronger: President Trump evidently thinks they should cut more. After the ADP data, but with more bad news still to come, he posted: “ADP NUMBER OUT!!! ‘Too Late’ Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!! Europe has lowered NINE TIMES!” The European Central Bank has in fact cut seven times to date, with an eighth more or less certain a matter hours after you receive this, and has a weaker economy and lower inflation. It’s not so ridiculous that it has eased more than the Fed. But Trump has a point that apparent weakness on the scale suggested by the data of the last few days would normally translate into imminent easier money. The problem remains the tariffs. The Fed needs to be clear that Trump really has chickened out before it cuts rates.

On the face of it, news doesn’t come much bigger than Operation Spider Web. You can read all about it here — Ukraine somehow managed to get drones deep into Russia in trucks and used them to destroy bombers. I’m already looking forward to the movie. The incident challenges assumptions about the inevitability of Russian victory. Ian Bremmer, head of the Eurasia Group political risk consultancy, summed up the implications: The biggest impact of Ukraine’s battlefield coup may be to challenge the core strategic presumption that has guided Vladimir Putin’s thinking for over three years: that time is on his side. Since the invasion began, Putin has bet on outlasting Ukraine – grinding down its defenses, draining Western support, and waiting for the political winds in Washington and Europe to shift. That assumption has underpinned his refusal to negotiate seriously. Like the North Vietnamese Tet Offensive of 1968, which resulted in a serious defeat but nevertheless inflicted a massive psychological toll on the US, the mere fact that this can happen is hugely significant. But it hasn’t generated all that much interest, at least in the financial community. This is a Bloomberg News Trends of the weekly numbers of stories mentioning Ukraine from all sources on the terminal: Since the initial excitement over Putin’s invasion died down, the only spike in interest came when Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was berated in the Oval Office. There is a similar pattern in markets. The invasion drove an immense spike in equity volatility in Europe (and to a much lesser extent in the US). That soon declined. “Liberation Day” sparked an even bigger spike three years later, which swiftly subsided, but the pattern is that markets on both sides of the Atlantic decided some years ago that the Ukraine conflict could safely be ignored — just as the more limited one in the Donbas had grumbled on in the background for years without generating any market angst: The simple explanation for this is, to paraphrase Marko Papic of BCA Research, “what happens in Donbas stays in Donbas,” as far as markets are concerned. This isn’t because traders are heartless, but because the conflict matters financially only to the extent that it threatens the supply and price of oil. Similar logic has allowed the Gaza clash to rage on for 20 months without having great impact on global markets. The greatest risk the Ukraine hostility posed was to European natural gas supply. That briefly paralyzed the continent’s economy, but the main benchmark shows that the problem has long since been dealt with. Renewed concern no longer has much effect: Crude oil seems irremediably weak at present, driven by poor sentiment around demand. For now, it looks like it’s closely tied to the dollar. When it spikes, so does the dollar (because it is a safe haven). And of late, they have been falling together. This terminal chart compares the rate of euros to the dollar to the West Texas Intermediate crude price: This is a strange inversion of the more common relationship between the two. What follows is the same chart for the five years from 2004 to 2009, but with the critical difference that it shows dollars per euro. The inverse relationship between the dollar and oil used to be as strong as the current apparent positive correlation. That at least suggests that it would be unwise to bank on it enduring: The loss of interest in the dollar as a safe haven in part reflects the steady desensitization to conflict risks in the years since the invasion. This chart from TS Lombard’s Christopher Granville demonstrates that each fresh outbreak has had progressively less of an impact on the oil price: The uptick in response to the latest news is barely visible. Efforts by Saudi Arabia to engineer a supply increase from the OPEC+ cartel have outbalanced the news about Ukrainian drone attacks. However, Granville adds: It does, however, offer a useful prompt to recall the real-world source of a new energy supply shock. This would be a no-holds-barred move by the US to throttle Russian oil exports. Enter Lindsey Graham. The Republican senator has been a reliable supporter of President Trump, and is now pushing for a 500% tariffon imports from countries that buy Russian oil products and uranium. In Congress, he has 82 co-signatories, from both parties, for this effort and he has also been discussing it with European allies. Unlike the tariffs that have dominated conversation for months, these would not be designed to obtain any economic advantage for the US. They would have the sole aim of throttling Russia by cutting off buyers for its resources, such as China and India. And the oil market would, to use a technical term, freak out. It’s little remembered now, but US stocks gained in the day after the invasion, because the initial signs were that Europe would balk at the most severe sanctions. It’s hard therefore to call such Russian sanctions a black swan. They’ve been under discussion for years, and they are a logical response to Russian aggression. Might the president, whose attitude to Putin appears to be changing, allow these sanctions to happen? If he does, in the current context, those sanctions would have the same impact as the darkest of swans.

• After rebounding sharply off the April lows, the S&P 500 has spent the past two weeks consolidating just -3% below its February all-time highs.
  
  
• TrendSpider points out that futures are testing resistance at 6,000 for the third time. The previous two rejections resulted in higher lows, forming a bullish Ascending Triangle pattern.
  
• This well-defined resistance level at 6,000 is the final hurdle in the recovery process before testing all-time highs near 6,160.
  

The Takeaway: The S&P 500 has formed an Ascending Triangle over the past two weeks, defined by rising support and horizontal resistance at 6,000. A breakout would target all-time highs near 6,160.





So I'll be leaving early for work tomorrow and may not have time to post after managing positions. So tomorrow today.


jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

The European Central Bank has in fact cut seven times to date, with an eighth more or less certain a matter hours after you receive this, and has a weaker economy and lower inflation. It’s not so ridiculous that it has eased more than the Fed. But Trump has a point that apparent weakness on the scale suggested by the data of the last few days would normally translate into imminent easier money.
The problem remains the tariffs. The Fed needs to be clear that Trump really has chickened out before it cuts rates

but , but ,but confidence in the US ( and US Dollar ) holds the G7 ( 'global economy ' ) up

now sure since 2020 that feels more like confidence trickery , but what if trust and confidence vanish with an admission of true facts

remember most of these "Central Banks ' and actually a consortium or is that a JV , of major local banks

if folks lose trust in the Fed ( the savior of all important banks in the US and abroad ) what happens to the banks ( depositors call their bluff

the truth is the US needs to start manufacturing again ( even if only to sell to the local market ) ... but where is the cash coming from to set up ( or restart ) those factories and supply-chains

 

[divs4ever]

European Industry Under Siege: China Deploys Rare Earths As Economic Weapon​

European Industry Under Siege: China Deploys Rare Earths As Economic Weapon | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

while this will probably boost ILU ( i hold ) don't be fooled the ILU resource is still just piles of dirt sitting in a storage area ( needing somewhere to be processed )

 

[ducati916]

The European Central Bank today cut interest rates for the eighth time this cycle — easing monetary policy across the Atlantic while the Federal Reserve keeps its rate policy steady. Why it matters: The U.S. economy has been resilient so far, while the Europeans deal with more obvious signs of weakness. Now the trade war risks another hit to Europe's economy. Trade negotiations with the U.S. have been rocky, with just weeks to go before each side unleashes higher tariffs. Of note: At its policy meeting later this month, the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting — to the consternation of Trump, who has argued the Fed is late to the rate-cutting party. The intrigue: European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde said the eurozone economy faces two-sided risks from the trade war — higher inflation and weaker growth — like the Fed. But inflation is actually slightly below the 2% target in Europe, according to preliminary figures that showed inflation was 1.9% in the 12 months through May. What they're saying: At a news conference this morning, Lagarde called the eurozone's inflation outlook "more uncertain than usual, as a result of the volatile global trade policy environment. Falling energy prices and a stronger euro could put further downward pressure on inflation." "This could be reinforced if higher tariffs led to lower demand for euro area exports and to countries with overcapacity rerouting their exports to the euro area," Lagarde added. But global supply chain shocks could raise import prices, alongside a boost in fiscal spending that could raise inflation in the medium term, she said. The bottom line: Lagarde suggested the European Central Bank will adopt the Fed's "wait-and-see" approach in the months ahead, hinting that it might hold off on cutting rates further. "At the current level of interest rates, we believe that we are in a good position to navigate the uncertain conditions that will be coming up," Lagarde said.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Full:https://slate.com/technology/2025/06/crypto-news-wrench-attacks-nyc-kidnapping-crime-rise.html

The May jobs report looks fine on the surface, but underneath there are signs of weakening in the labor market. Why it matters: The good news is that employers kept hiring at a healthy rate in May. But a few oddities in the report signal less momentum in the job market. What they're saying: "There are now clear trends in the data, not just vague signs, that even if the train is chugging forward, more and more people are getting left behind at the station," Cory Stahle, an economist at job search site Indeed, wrote in a note. "This isn't a bad report, per se, but there are clear signs of erosion just below the surface that may not be apparent just by looking only at the headline numbers," Stahle said. By the numbers: Payroll employment rose by 139,000 in May, roughly in line with what forecasters had anticipated. But the Labor Department revised down job gains in March and April by a combined 95,000 jobs. Job growth has averaged 124,000 a month in 2025, a downshift from 168,000 in 2024. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate was steady at 4.2% — but that masked a steep drop in the number of Americans in the labor force. The share of adults who were employed fell 0.3 percentage points to 59.7%, the lowest in more than three years. It was due to a whopping 625,000 fewer people in the labor force — neither working nor looking for work. The intrigue: The bulk of job creation continued to be concentrated in what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called "government-adjacent" fields, including health care. That sector added 62,000 jobs last month, above the average monthly gain of 44,000 jobs over the prior 12 months. "The month's modest job gains were concentrated in non-cyclical sectors like healthcare," Comerica chief economist Bill Adams wrote in a note. "Job gains in other cyclical private industries were anemic, reflecting the drag from policy uncertainty." Of note: The federal government sector, which has been hit by DOGE-related layoffs, lost 22,000 jobs in May alone. It has shed 55,000 workers since January. (Local government employment rose by 21,000.) State of play: The reported size of the labor force can be volatile month-to-month just due to sampling error, but the drop in May was unusually large. It may have fallen because of potential workers becoming discouraged about job prospects, or it could be attributable to immigration cuts reducing the supply of labor, notes Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic.

The new numbers are the worst of all worlds for those hoping for Fed interest rate cuts — including the guy in the Oval Office. State of play: The Fed is on high alert for any meaningful deterioration in the labor market, which could trigger interest rate cuts to try to fulfill its mandate for maximum employment. This report didn't provide that — it's hard to square a stable unemployment rate and solid payroll growth with the kind of falloff in the job market that would bring in the rate-cutting cavalry, no matter what the beneath-the-surface details show. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in May, an elevated level that suggests some residual inflation pressure remains in the job market. The policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield was up a whopping 0.09 percentage points this morning on the news, reflecting expectations that rate cuts are looking more distant. Between the lines: The Fed's policy committee meets later this month and is all but certain to leave rates unchanged, consistent with its wait-and-see mode for the impact of the trade war on the economy. The meeting after that is in late July, but that means there will only be one more month of jobs data by then. A rate cut then also looks improbable, barring a complete collapse in the data in the weeks ahead. It's far more plausible that by September there will be enough evidence of a downshift in the job market and economic activity more broadly. Yes, but: That's not what President Trump wants to hear. "If 'Too Late' at the Fed would CUT, we would greatly reduce interest rates, long and short, on debt that is coming due," Trump posted on Truth Social this morning. "Borrowing costs should be MUCH LOWER!!!" "Go for a full point, Rocket Fuel!" he later added. Reality check: The Fed isn't going to cut interest rates a full percentage point, or anything close to it, unless or until, there is more decisive evidence that the job market is losing steam.

Oil News


June 6th, 2025

ICE Brent futures are set to close this week above $66 per barrel, a more than 3% weekly gain after markets were buoyed by the prospect of US-China trade talks, all the while derailed US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine negotiations have kept geopolitical risk premia intact. Supply risks from Canada’s wildfires seem to be subsiding after Alberta saw some rain earlier in the week, however, they might reappear again on forecasts of upcoming June heatwaves.

No Nuclear Deal Means More Iran Sanctions. As US-Iran nuclear negotiations seemingly hit a roadblock after Tehran rejected the idea of transferring its inventory of enriched uranium, the US Department of Treasury announced new sanctions on Iran, targeting 10 individuals and 27 commercial entities.

Saudi Arabia Cuts Its July Prices. Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) slashed its July prices for Asian customers by $0.20 per barrel for lighter grades and by $0.10 per barrel for Arab Medium, back to May levels, citing healthy demand and low regional stocks, half the cut that analysts were expecting.

Iraq Attacks Kurdish Government. The Iraqi Oil Ministry said that it holds the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) legally responsible for the widespread smuggling of oil and refined products from Kurdistan, believed to be at least 150,000 b/d in volume as Erbil defies orders from Baghdad.

US and Japan to Iron Out US Steel Deal Concerns. Japan’s largest steelmaker Nippon Steel (TYO:5401) asked a US appeals court for an 8-day pause in litigation to give them more time to reach a final agreement to buy US Steel (NYSE:X) for $14.9 billion, as both sides believe they are closing in on the deal.

Low Stocks Buoy Copper Futures. Copper soared to its highest in two months this week, with the three-month LME futures contract touching $9,810 per metric tonne on Thursday, as inventories in LME-registered warehouses fell to just 138,000 tonnes, halving since the beginning of this year.

Clean Energy Investments Flying High, Still. According to the International Energy Agency, global energy investment will rise to a record $3.3 trillion this year, of which $2.2 trillion will come from clean energy technologies, including renewables, nuclear and energy storage, with solar being the biggest beneficiary.

Silver Soars to Highest Since 2012. Spot silver prices surged past $36 per ounce this week, for the first time in 13 years, as the metal enters its fifth consecutive year of a market deficit on the back of strong industrial demand, further boosted by silver’s safe haven appeal that lifted it by 24% in 2025 already.

Brazil Will Start Drilling Big in Africa. Petrobras (NYSEBR), the state oil company of Brazil, stated it would make Africa its main region of exploration and investment outside of Brazil, with the government of Ivory Coast offering preferential rights to nine offshore blocks this week, to be followed by Nigeria, Angola and Namibia.

Petronas Denies Rumours of Canada Exit. Malaysia’s national oil company Petronas refuted claims that it would be looking to sell its 7 billion Canadian business, however signalled that it is intent to ‘rightsize’ its workforce there and cut around 10% of its workforce as part of a restructuring exercise.

China Teapots Curb Their Appetite for Iranian Oil. Independent teapot refiners in China have slowed their purchases of Iranian crude, down by some 20% from the 1.6 million b/d average of Q1 2025, however it is not sanctions but high asking prices (a discount of -$3 per barrel to Brent) that prompted the shift.

US Rejects Ethane Loadings to China. US midstream giant Enterprise Products (NYSE:EPD) said that the US Commerce Department denied its requests to ship 2.2 million barrels of ethane in three loads to China, despite having requested an export licence right after receiving a May 23 letter from the BIS.

Discounts For Russian Oil Narrow. Discounts for Russia’s flagship Urals grade have narrowed to their lowest since the Russia-Ukraine war began as July-arrival cargoes are shown at a $2.25 per barrel discount to Brent on a delivered basis, partly due to flat prices behind the $60 per barrel price cap level.

US LNG Flows Fall Before They Soar. US feedgas flows to the country’s eight large-scale LNG export plants dipped to 13.8 BCf/d so far in June as Sabine Pass LNG is undergoing planned maintenance until June 22 and Plaquemines prepares for new commissioned units, capping next-day Henry Hub prices at $2.86 per mmBtu.

• The Uranium ETF ($URA) closed at a seven-month high today, surging more than +63% since the April 8th low, compared to nearly +20% for the S&P 500.
  
• Wingman notes that $URA is testing resistance at $33 for the fourth time since last May. A breakout here would clear the way for levels not seen since 2014.
  
• Cameco Corp. ($CCJ) is the largest holding in $URA, accounting for 23% of the ETF. Other notable components include Oklo ($OKLO), NexGen Energy ($NXE), NuScale Power ($SMR), and Uranium Energy Corp. ($UEC).
  

The Takeaway: The Uranium ETF ($URA) is testing a familiar level at $33 for the fourth time since last May. A successful breakout would open the door to levels not seen in a decade.





Dow Jones Industrials

We had a big birthday last week, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average turned 129 years young! It is the second oldest index (the Dow Jones Transportation Average is older) and was first calculated on May 26, 1896 by Charles Dow, co-founder of both the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones & Company.

It started as 12 companies, representing the big parts of the economy at the time, like leather, steel, and sugar. It was meant to gauge the overall health of the industrial sector. Of course, today it is 30 of the largest publicly traded companies (as it has been since October 1928) and is still widely considered one of the most well-known and cited indices in the world, but it is also one of the best gauges for the overall health of the US economy.

Here are 12 fun stats to celebrate the big birthday:

• None of the original 12 are left. General Electric was the most recent of the 12 to be included, but was it removed October 2018. Another fun stat, it was removed two other times in 1898 and again 1901, for a total of three times.
• It started with 12 stocks, but moved to 20 in 1916 and 30 in 1928. To this day, many think 30 is still too small of a sample size, but it doesn’t look like this will change anytime soon.
• A committee at the S&P Dow Jones Indices picks the components and there isn’t a ridged process or formula.
• The best year ever? A cool 82% gain in 1915, which also happened to be in the middle of World War I.
• 1931 takes the cake for the worst year ever, down nearly 53%. The Great Depression sparked this weakness, as stocks eventually fell 86% from their peak in 1929.
• It is price weighted, meaning a stock with a higher price will have more impact on the daily change. For example, when UnitedHealth Group (UNH) had their recent troubles, this made the Dow returns look worse than it was under the surface or compared with market-weighted indexes like the S&P 500.
• Average is in the name, but it isn’t an average, it is an index.
• It was up a record nine years in a row in the 1990s.
• It fell 20.5% on December 14, 1914 as World War I broke out, but the worst day ever was the 22.6% crash on October 19, 1987, better known as the Crash of 1987 or Black Monday today.
• The Dow has gained double digits in one day nine times, with the most recent off the COVID lows on March 24, 2020. The best single day ever was a 15.3% gain on March 15, 1933. Ides of March indeed.
• The best part about the Dow is how much wealth it has created over generations for investors (if you were able to track the index). It started trading at 40.94 and recently peaked at more than 45,000. And that doesn’t even include dividends! Along the way there have been many worries and concerns, yet stocks have eventually moved higher every single time. Here’s our always popular Chart of Worries showing just this.

• Lastly, it closed at about 100 in 1906 and 1,000 in 1972. It took till 1999 to get over 10,000 and recently peaked above 45,000 in December. The fasted 1k interval ever was only five days from 32,000 to 33,000 in March 2021. Any bets on when it breaks 100k?

I'll have a weekly roundup tomorrow.


jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

View attachment 201086

Full:https://slate.com/technology/2025/06/crypto-news-wrench-attacks-nyc-kidnapping-crime-rise.html

View attachment 201087View attachment 201088

The May jobs report looks fine on the surface, but underneath there are signs of weakening in the labor market. Why it matters: The good news is that employers kept hiring at a healthy rate in May. But a few oddities in the report signal less momentum in the job market. What they're saying: "There are now clear trends in the data, not just vague signs, that even if the train is chugging forward, more and more people are getting left behind at the station," Cory Stahle, an economist at job search site Indeed, wrote in a note. "This isn't a bad report, per se, but there are clear signs of erosion just below the surface that may not be apparent just by looking only at the headline numbers," Stahle said. By the numbers: Payroll employment rose by 139,000 in May, roughly in line with what forecasters had anticipated. But the Labor Department revised down job gains in March and April by a combined 95,000 jobs. Job growth has averaged 124,000 a month in 2025, a downshift from 168,000 in 2024. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate was steady at 4.2% — but that masked a steep drop in the number of Americans in the labor force. The share of adults who were employed fell 0.3 percentage points to 59.7%, the lowest in more than three years. It was due to a whopping 625,000 fewer people in the labor force — neither working nor looking for work. The intrigue: The bulk of job creation continued to be concentrated in what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called "government-adjacent" fields, including health care. That sector added 62,000 jobs last month, above the average monthly gain of 44,000 jobs over the prior 12 months. "The month's modest job gains were concentrated in non-cyclical sectors like healthcare," Comerica chief economist Bill Adams wrote in a note. "Job gains in other cyclical private industries were anemic, reflecting the drag from policy uncertainty." Of note: The federal government sector, which has been hit by DOGE-related layoffs, lost 22,000 jobs in May alone. It has shed 55,000 workers since January. (Local government employment rose by 21,000.) State of play: The reported size of the labor force can be volatile month-to-month just due to sampling error, but the drop in May was unusually large. It may have fallen because of potential workers becoming discouraged about job prospects, or it could be attributable to immigration cuts reducing the supply of labor, notes Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic.

The new numbers are the worst of all worlds for those hoping for Fed interest rate cuts — including the guy in the Oval Office. State of play: The Fed is on high alert for any meaningful deterioration in the labor market, which could trigger interest rate cuts to try to fulfill its mandate for maximum employment. This report didn't provide that — it's hard to square a stable unemployment rate and solid payroll growth with the kind of falloff in the job market that would bring in the rate-cutting cavalry, no matter what the beneath-the-surface details show. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in May, an elevated level that suggests some residual inflation pressure remains in the job market. The policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield was up a whopping 0.09 percentage points this morning on the news, reflecting expectations that rate cuts are looking more distant. Between the lines: The Fed's policy committee meets later this month and is all but certain to leave rates unchanged, consistent with its wait-and-see mode for the impact of the trade war on the economy. The meeting after that is in late July, but that means there will only be one more month of jobs data by then. A rate cut then also looks improbable, barring a complete collapse in the data in the weeks ahead. It's far more plausible that by September there will be enough evidence of a downshift in the job market and economic activity more broadly. Yes, but: That's not what President Trump wants to hear. "If 'Too Late' at the Fed would CUT, we would greatly reduce interest rates, long and short, on debt that is coming due," Trump posted on Truth Social this morning. "Borrowing costs should be MUCH LOWER!!!" "Go for a full point, Rocket Fuel!" he later added. Reality check: The Fed isn't going to cut interest rates a full percentage point, or anything close to it, unless or until, there is more decisive evidence that the job market is losing steam.

View attachment 201089


Oil News


June 6th, 2025

ICE Brent futures are set to close this week above $66 per barrel, a more than 3% weekly gain after markets were buoyed by the prospect of US-China trade talks, all the while derailed US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine negotiations have kept geopolitical risk premia intact. Supply risks from Canada’s wildfires seem to be subsiding after Alberta saw some rain earlier in the week, however, they might reappear again on forecasts of upcoming June heatwaves.

No Nuclear Deal Means More Iran Sanctions. As US-Iran nuclear negotiations seemingly hit a roadblock after Tehran rejected the idea of transferring its inventory of enriched uranium, the US Department of Treasury announced new sanctions on Iran, targeting 10 individuals and 27 commercial entities.

Saudi Arabia Cuts Its July Prices. Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) slashed its July prices for Asian customers by $0.20 per barrel for lighter grades and by $0.10 per barrel for Arab Medium, back to May levels, citing healthy demand and low regional stocks, half the cut that analysts were expecting.

Iraq Attacks Kurdish Government. The Iraqi Oil Ministry said that it holds the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) legally responsible for the widespread smuggling of oil and refined products from Kurdistan, believed to be at least 150,000 b/d in volume as Erbil defies orders from Baghdad.

US and Japan to Iron Out US Steel Deal Concerns. Japan’s largest steelmaker Nippon Steel (TYO:5401) asked a US appeals court for an 8-day pause in litigation to give them more time to reach a final agreement to buy US Steel (NYSE:X) for $14.9 billion, as both sides believe they are closing in on the deal.

Low Stocks Buoy Copper Futures. Copper soared to its highest in two months this week, with the three-month LME futures contract touching $9,810 per metric tonne on Thursday, as inventories in LME-registered warehouses fell to just 138,000 tonnes, halving since the beginning of this year.

Clean Energy Investments Flying High, Still. According to the International Energy Agency, global energy investment will rise to a record $3.3 trillion this year, of which $2.2 trillion will come from clean energy technologies, including renewables, nuclear and energy storage, with solar being the biggest beneficiary.

Silver Soars to Highest Since 2012. Spot silver prices surged past $36 per ounce this week, for the first time in 13 years, as the metal enters its fifth consecutive year of a market deficit on the back of strong industrial demand, further boosted by silver’s safe haven appeal that lifted it by 24% in 2025 already.

Brazil Will Start Drilling Big in Africa. Petrobras (NYSEBR), the state oil company of Brazil, stated it would make Africa its main region of exploration and investment outside of Brazil, with the government of Ivory Coast offering preferential rights to nine offshore blocks this week, to be followed by Nigeria, Angola and Namibia.

Petronas Denies Rumours of Canada Exit. Malaysia’s national oil company Petronas refuted claims that it would be looking to sell its 7 billion Canadian business, however signalled that it is intent to ‘rightsize’ its workforce there and cut around 10% of its workforce as part of a restructuring exercise.

China Teapots Curb Their Appetite for Iranian Oil. Independent teapot refiners in China have slowed their purchases of Iranian crude, down by some 20% from the 1.6 million b/d average of Q1 2025, however it is not sanctions but high asking prices (a discount of -$3 per barrel to Brent) that prompted the shift.

US Rejects Ethane Loadings to China. US midstream giant Enterprise Products (NYSE:EPD) said that the US Commerce Department denied its requests to ship 2.2 million barrels of ethane in three loads to China, despite having requested an export licence right after receiving a May 23 letter from the BIS.

Discounts For Russian Oil Narrow. Discounts for Russia’s flagship Urals grade have narrowed to their lowest since the Russia-Ukraine war began as July-arrival cargoes are shown at a $2.25 per barrel discount to Brent on a delivered basis, partly due to flat prices behind the $60 per barrel price cap level.

US LNG Flows Fall Before They Soar. US feedgas flows to the country’s eight large-scale LNG export plants dipped to 13.8 BCf/d so far in June as Sabine Pass LNG is undergoing planned maintenance until June 22 and Plaquemines prepares for new commissioned units, capping next-day Henry Hub prices at $2.86 per mmBtu.

• The Uranium ETF ($URA) closed at a seven-month high today, surging more than +63% since the April 8th low, compared to nearly +20% for the S&P 500.
• Wingman notes that $URA is testing resistance at $33 for the fourth time since last May. A breakout here would clear the way for levels not seen since 2014.
• Cameco Corp. ($CCJ) is the largest holding in $URA, accounting for 23% of the ETF. Other notable components include Oklo ($OKLO), NexGen Energy ($NXE), NuScale Power ($SMR), and Uranium Energy Corp. ($UEC).

The Takeaway: The Uranium ETF ($URA) is testing a familiar level at $33 for the fourth time since last May. A successful breakout would open the door to levels not seen in a decade.

View attachment 201090



Dow Jones Industrials

We had a big birthday last week, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average turned 129 years young! It is the second oldest index (the Dow Jones Transportation Average is older) and was first calculated on May 26, 1896 by Charles Dow, co-founder of both the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones & Company.

It started as 12 companies, representing the big parts of the economy at the time, like leather, steel, and sugar. It was meant to gauge the overall health of the industrial sector. Of course, today it is 30 of the largest publicly traded companies (as it has been since October 1928) and is still widely considered one of the most well-known and cited indices in the world, but it is also one of the best gauges for the overall health of the US economy.

Here are 12 fun stats to celebrate the big birthday:

• None of the original 12 are left. General Electric was the most recent of the 12 to be included, but was it removed October 2018. Another fun stat, it was removed two other times in 1898 and again 1901, for a total of three times.
• It started with 12 stocks, but moved to 20 in 1916 and 30 in 1928. To this day, many think 30 is still too small of a sample size, but it doesn’t look like this will change anytime soon.
• A committee at the S&P Dow Jones Indices picks the components and there isn’t a ridged process or formula.
• The best year ever? A cool 82% gain in 1915, which also happened to be in the middle of World War I.
• 1931 takes the cake for the worst year ever, down nearly 53%. The Great Depression sparked this weakness, as stocks eventually fell 86% from their peak in 1929.
• It is price weighted, meaning a stock with a higher price will have more impact on the daily change. For example, when UnitedHealth Group (UNH) had their recent troubles, this made the Dow returns look worse than it was under the surface or compared with market-weighted indexes like the S&P 500.
• Average is in the name, but it isn’t an average, it is an index.
• It was up a record nine years in a row in the 1990s.
• It fell 20.5% on December 14, 1914 as World War I broke out, but the worst day ever was the 22.6% crash on October 19, 1987, better known as the Crash of 1987 or Black Monday today.
• The Dow has gained double digits in one day nine times, with the most recent off the COVID lows on March 24, 2020. The best single day ever was a 15.3% gain on March 15, 1933. Ides of March indeed.
• The best part about the Dow is how much wealth it has created over generations for investors (if you were able to track the index). It started trading at 40.94 and recently peaked at more than 45,000. And that doesn’t even include dividends! Along the way there have been many worries and concerns, yet stocks have eventually moved higher every single time. Here’s our always popular Chart of Worries showing just this.

View attachment 201095

• Lastly, it closed at about 100 in 1906 and 1,000 in 1972. It took till 1999 to get over 10,000 and recently peaked above 45,000 in December. The fasted 1k interval ever was only five days from 32,000 to 33,000 in March 2021. Any bets on when it breaks 100k?

View attachment 201096


View attachment 201093View attachment 201092View attachment 201091


I'll have a weekly roundup tomorrow.


jog on
duc

the moral of the story ( at the top )

is DON'T brag about your gains and assets ... desperate people do despicable things ( even to their friends )

no just crypto , it could be stock , bonds , fine art , watches , etc etc

it is bad enough worrying about the security of the data your insurance keeps about you ( and if that data falls into the greedy grip of others )

it's hard to square a stable unemployment rate and solid payroll growth with the kind of falloff in the job market that would bring in the rate-cutting cavalry, no matter what the beneath-the-surface details show.

now what might be happening is many who would be engaged in tertiary education , are either going for full-time employment and part time learning , or abandoning the higher education system and just trying to earn adequate income .

No Nuclear Deal Means More Iran Sanctions. As US-Iran nuclear negotiations seemingly hit a roadblock after Tehran rejected the idea of transferring its inventory of enriched uranium, the US Department of Treasury announced new sanctions on Iran, targeting 10 individuals and 27 commercial entities.

well they would have to be crazy to just give it away , especially when India , Pakistan and North Korea would be willing buyers ( maybe even China )

Iran should just accept the US has an agenda , and deal more with 'the unwashed ' ( BRICS and other heavily sanctioned nations of choice ) , the US will be coming after the Iranian oil sooner or later ( just like they did in Iraq , Syria , and Libya )

 

[ducati916]

Week's Round-up:












Full:https://www.semafor.com/article/06/02/2025/view-if-ai-can-personalize-ads-why-not-news





Full:https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/02/health/coffee-longevity-women-study-wellness




The only ways out are slash entitlements, slash interest rates, slash defense, or slash the value of USTs relative to Nominal GDP (i.e., repress bond yields by Yield Curve Control, regulation, etc. to keep them well below the rate of Nominal GDP growth for some period of time.) None of these options will be politically popular, hence the intensity of the political infighting and political divisions.


As the S&P 500 flirts with closing 20% above its April 8th closing low, there have been several strong performers helping to drive the gains, and very few losers, with only 56 stocks in the index trading lower. While the rally has been broad, the largest stocks in the index have been driving the gains. Even as the index is up just over 20%, the average performance of the 500 individual companies has been four percentage points lower at 16.1%.

Of the S&P 500's biggest winners since 4/8 as of Friday afternoon, 19 stocks in the index have rallied 50% or more. A 50% rally over a year or two is incredible enough, but a surge of 50% in less than two months is rare, especially for a large-cap stock. The table below lists each of the stocks that have rallied 50%, and if there's one theme that immediately stands out, it's that Technology has been driving the surge. Eight of the 19 stocks listed are from the Technology sector, including three of the top four. The best-performing stock off the April low has been Seagate Technology (STX), which has nearly doubled. After Technology, the next most heavily represented sectors are Industrials and Utilities (yes, Utilities!) with three each.



Of the 56 stocks that are lower since April 8th, only 14 have declined by double-digit percentages. Leading the way to the downside, UnitedHealth (UNH) has plunged over 45%. Along with UNH, Humana (HUM) is down close to 20% and just two others are down over 15%. While Technology has been popular on the leader board, Health Care accounts for more than half (8) of the 14 biggest losers. Looking through the names listed, they're primarily defensive, so you wouldn't expect them to outperform during a period like the last two months, but double-digit declines? Someone get these stocks a doctor!




jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

so i wonder who bought into coffee businesses ?

i could have told them that 20 years back

but of course it is amazing what you can find if the taxpayers fund it

BTW with all these ads , do they create a road safety hazard or do they rely on the forecast that everyone is using 'cruise-control/autonomous vehicles ?