September 2024 DDD

[ducati916]

According to the Fed, the economy is strong. No sign of weakness.

Ok, so why cut 50bps with more widely expected to come? Is it because you can't cut 'entitlements' (Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security) and you won't cut defence spending? So to continue deficit financing, you cut interest rates. LOL.







Only really semi's holding the market to moderate losses.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Oil News:

Friday, September 27th, 2024

China’s economic stimulus measures and US hurricanes have provided firm fundamental support for oil prices; but the big story of this week has come from Saudi Arabia, with media outlets alleging Riyadh is considering a strategy revamp of retaking market share in the oil markets. Fearing oversupply, market participants witnessed a $3 per barrel drop from a week ago, with WTI dipping below $70 per barrel again.

Saudi Arabia Mulls Pros of Higher Production. According to the FT, Saudi Arabia is preparing to raise its crude oil production to win back market share, abandoning its unofficial $100 per barrel oil price target even if that means lower prices, raising hopes that OPEC+ would go ahead with its December hikes.

Libya Gets Closer to a Negotiated Settlement. The UN-brokered negotiations between Libya’s rival governments have made substantial headway this week, reportedly agreeing on the procedures of Central Bank staffing and decision-making, seeking to defuse the ongoing oil blockade.

Eastern US Ports Ready for Strike. Port authorities in New York, New Jersey, Virginia, New Orleans, Louisiana and Texas have started to inform customers that some operations will stop effective September 30 as a regionwide strike of port workers risks debilitating container cargo traffic.

UK’s Key New Upstream Projects Derailed by Litigation. The two largest upcoming oil and gas projects in the UK’s continental shelf, Shell’s Jackdaw, and Equinor’s Rosebank, might be stalled after environmental campaign group Greenpeace initiated a legal review of the two fields in Scottish courts.

FTC to Bar John Hess from Chevron Board. The US Federal Trade Commission is expected to prohibit Hess CEO John Hess from taking a board seat at US major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) as a condition of the latter’s $53 billion purchase of Hess, just as Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield was barred from Exxon’s board.

US Natural Gas Cuts to See Gradual Phaseout. The chief executive of EQT (NYSE:EQT) confirmed that the United States’ largest gas producer would be reversing some output curtailments implemented earlier in 2024 on the back of lower gas prices, preparing for a surge in LNG feedgas demand.

Kazakhstan Wants Billions from Oil Majors. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said it expects preliminary results of multi-billion arbitration proceedings by the end of this year, launching claims against stakeholders of the Kashagan and Karachaganak fields, worth $13 and $3.5 billion, respectively.

Brazilian Major Seeks More Domestic Exposure. Brazilian upstream firm Prio (BVMFRIO3) reached an agreement with Chinese state-controlled major Sinochem (SHA:600500) to buy its 40% stake in the offshore Peregrino oil field for $1.92 billion, boosting its proprietary output with the 110,000 b/d field.

BP Wants to Lure Investors by Shedding US Wind. British oil major BP (NYSE:BP) has reportedly put its US onshore wind business up for sale in a bid to attract investor interest as it rethinks its vast portfolio of low-carbon assets, selling 1.7 GW of gross generating capacity across seven US states.

Copper Surges Past 10,000 on China Stimulus. Copper futures for December delivery surged past the $10,000 per metric tonne threshold as China unveiled wide-ranging stimulus measures to breathe life into its ailing real estate market, settling above $10,200/mt and sending mining stocks up by 6-7% this week.

Belgium Calls for EU-Wide Ban on Russian LNG. Belgium, the fourth largest recipient of Russian LNG in 2023, has called for a coordinated EU approach to end the imports of Russian LNG into the European Union, over and above the expected ban on transshipment, set to take effect from the end of March 2025.

US Gulf Recovers from Hurricane Helene Impact. At the peak of Hurricane Helene, some 30% of US offshore oil output was offline as 27 producing platforms were evacuated, equivalent to an outright impact of 510,000 b/d, but shut-ins had dropped by Friday as oil companies resumed operations.

Sinking Barge Disrupts Venezuelan Production. At least two people died and four were declared missing after an oil barge operated by a PDVSA contractor sunk in Lake Maracaibo, the largest crude production hub in the country, reportedly capsizing whilst carrying out well maintenance services.

I have so many charts today, crazy!




Next pg.

 

[ducati916]

Next pg.

 

[ducati916]

So I'll leave you to digest that enormous data dump.

I'll be back over the w/e to look at next week.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Long article but worth a read: https://stratechery.com/2024/enterprise-philosophy-and-the-first-wave-of-ai/

China:

The US and China finally agree on what to do about the economy

For the first time since Covid turned everything upside down, policymakers in the world’s two largest economies finally have a common cause....

sherwood.news

Last week:



This month



Year to date



For next week:



The only bad miss from last week was XLF (Financials).

Market is oblivious to bad news. LOL.



Markets are not smart or efficient. You just have to hold your nose and go with the flow.

China



Will it go?

Not sure. I was a buyer in the $23 region and a seller in the $30 region.

The fundamentals would (inflation) suggest that it will move higher. We'll see.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Looking at China and why this is important:

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-unveils-broad-stimulus-measures-revive-economy-2024-09-24/

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

So the Fed cuts US rates, weakening the USD.

Then China announces its own stimulus package.



But the Yuan strengthens against USD.



US still relies on foreign investment. This money is in the stock market. If it comes out, this happens:



The Fed has to fill the holes.



As compared to SPY last week



Take money out of an outperforming, overvalued market and put it to work in a cheap undervalued market.

If you are Chinese, maybe you don't have a choice. Maybe you have to repatriate capital. There is an outright economic war going on. China has already been seeking to break USD and UST hegemony. That is a done deal. Now they attack the economy directly? The US is MASSIVELY dependent on the stock market for tax revenue. If the stock market falls or just even stops going higher, deficits start to grow even bigger.

Add in the weakening and much weaker USD going forward and inflation will again become a thing.

Mr FFF

Vacation Trading Back to RECOURD Highs​

Fri Sep 27, 2024 4:12pm EST 0


Good day —
In the past I’d lose large sums of money whenever away on vacation — but this go around I moseyed back to recourd highs.



I cannot be upset about this result but will tell you that this trip embedded my hatred for NYC forever, on a scale not formerly understood to myself. The problem with NYC, aside from the ribald and ugly aesthetics of the city, is primarily the people. They’re a monstrous sort, easily tricked and fooled, angered by easterly winds, both vacuous and small. If not for family, a thousand years could pass and I’d never come here to visit, much preferring the southern comforts and amenities of North Carolina.

At any rate, we depart for home tomorrow, but might sleep in Richmond for a day, since I don’t like to drive 10 hours in one sitting, mainly because I’m not an animal.

Into the Monday session, I long with 15% cash and a 5.5% $SQQQ hedge. Today’s tape was sloppy, I think — but who really knows since I spent the majority of my day drinking some beer and noshing on some amazing pizza.
Back to the turret on Monday.

Made it Back to NC in One Day​

Sun Sep 29, 2024 11:10am EST 3


Instead of pitstopping at Richmond or Fredericksburg for a night, traveling from NYC to NC, I decided to just drive the whole way. It was about an 11hr sojourn, including stops, and I could’ve driven another 5 hours before swerving off the side of the road into a ravine.

The trip was capped off by me unhooking the net inside my trunk and seeing my wife’s cherished bottles of red wine and ‘imported olive oil’ roll slowly and then at warp ******* speed onto the concrete below WASHING OVER MY BROWN SUEDE SHOES, much to Mrs. Fly’s horror. She didn’t give a **** about my comfy shoes, but the salads that were to be enjoyed and now cannot. Delicious, wonderful salads. The subsequent results of this unhooking of the net has made my driveway appear to be a denizen of an auto mechanic and my shoes a total loss, oil stains everywhere. Any of you tracking me for a while understands this is part and parcel of me going on vacation. Either I lose wanton amounts of coin in the market OR personal items are stripped from me by the Gods, forcing me back into a mode of toil to seek vengeance via grandiose market gains.

The wine, I will have you know, was purchased by Mrs. Fly at a “super cute” vineyard in Long Island, overlooking a ‘wonderful view’ of the grapes and the goats trapped in some little playpen. She will tell you the wine was “very good” but as an authority on wine I will tell you it was “less than mid.”

At any rate, we are back in the saddle. By “we” I mean “me”, since Mrs. Fly is now retired and has been retired for over 25 years (we are 48).

Things to do today, aside from unpacking, include church, a trip of Whole Foods to restock, and watch the finale of Industry (fire) and the second episode of The Penguin (also fire). Tomorrow, we will bank coin. By “we”, I mean me and the people inside Stocklabs, not any of you reader class losers attempting to extract valuable information for free.

Good day.


jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

A small contribution

India’s Fuel Exports Surge as European Supply Drops | OilPrice.com

India's petroleum product exports have reached a two-and-a-half-year high due to increased demand from Africa as European refineries undergo maintenance.

oilprice.com

India export +39% this month vs last year.
A lot of Russian oil refined.....