June 2025 DDD

[divs4ever]

Anything is better than a country that believes in and encourages martyrdom to have a Nuke.

Off to the Iran-> Israel WAR THRREAD.

yes Israel did create the Muslim martyr ( remember the intifada )


https://www.britannica.com/topic/intifada

Israel's solution , force some of them out all over the world ( Lebanon , Jordan , Syria , Egypt , and plenty of other places. )

 

[ducati916]

From Strazza;

Here’s why… Since the market bottomed over two months ago, the best stocks have been the riskiest ones. Of course, I’m talking about the impressive leadership from speculative growth. We’ve seen this story before, though. We’ve actually already seen it several times in the current cycle. Speculative tech was an area of standout leadership during the Q4 2023 rally. The space also outperformed in a major way during the post-election ramp-up coming into the year. But the momentum and relative strength didn’t last in either of those cases… I think this time is different… And the relative trend between the flagship ARK fund and the S&P is a big reason why:

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This is the same special pattern we’ve been leaning into for years now. The rounding bottom reversal. It is a prolonged accumulation phase whereby price goes through a period of sideways action while the trend gradually transitions from down to up. The completion of this formation signals a valid trend reversal and tells us the path of least resistance is now higher. In the case of ARKK/SPY shown above, a resolution would suggest more outperformance from speculative growth stocks over longer timeframes. The last time ARK broke out of an accumulation phase on relative terms was early 2020. Before that, it was early 2017. If you remember those years, you know they were some of the best times for bulls in recent history. The 2017 and 2020-21 bull markets were characterized by low volatility and risk-on price action. The animal spirits were running wild. The riskiest stocks were the best-performers, and Cathie Wood was on top of the world. I think the second half of 2025 is going to be a lot like those periods before it. One way we’ll know is that this reversal pattern in ARKK/SPY will be a valid one. This chart will keep climbing up the right-hand side of the screen, and speculative growth stocks will continue to lead. This week was a good start with the flagship ARK fund going out at fresh cycle highs on both absolute and relative terms. We’re also seeing a bit of a momentum thrust in the ratio, which I always love to see at a key level like this. Another thing that has me feeling this breakout in speculative growth is the feedback I’ve been getting from the market. We keep buying these ARK-y names, and we keep being rewarded for it. AST SpaceMobile has been a monster for us the past two weeks. We sold a quick double, and the remaining calls are running wild as the stock is breaking out of a massive coil. Our calls were up about 18x at the close today.

From JC;

• Every wine has its place, every strategy has its time.
• Being human can cost you a lot of money.
• We must weigh all the evidence before we act.

About five years ago I passed the Certified Sommelier Exam. It took about four years of training to get there.

On my first day of Sommelier kindergarten, I realized right away these Master Sommeliers were Technical Analysts, just like me.

The process of properly blind tasting wine was remarkably similar to the "Top-Down" approach to financial markets.

In the wine world, it's called the "Deductive Method."

I still train with Master Somms and work on my blind tasting skills.

But this isn't about me.

It's about humans.

Deductive Method​

When we're trying to make decisions in the market, we want to first eliminate what we don't want to do.

In bull markets, for example, where consolidations in stocks keep resolving to the upside, do we want to spend most of our time looking for stocks to short?

Probably not.

If a stock is making new multi-year highs, is it in a downtrend?

Probably not.

If the wine is red, then is it likely a Pinot Grigio?

Probably not.

So we're already eliminating our possibilities, to break it down to what it could possibly be.

If it's a white wine, then we know it's not a Cabernet Sauvignon, or a Merlot, or a Sangiovese.

Then we look at it and test the viscosity and type of purple or garnet colors it may have.

Then we smell it to see which characteristics stand out.

By a certain point, we haven't even tasted the wine – but we've already eliminated 90% of the possibilities.

That's the Deductive Method to blind wine tasting.

It's like what we call the "Top-Down" approach to financial markets.

It's a deductive process, in blind tasting wine and in finding stocks to trade, so we can make money.

If all the Tech stocks are breaking out and making new highs, while the bank stocks are falling and making new lows, should we be spending all our time looking for bank stocks to buy?

Or should we be focused elsewhere?

If the wine has a ton of red and garnet color, and high tannins and high alcohol, should we pretend that it's a Chardonnay?

Nope.

A Time and a Place​

Also, there's a time and a place for everything.

In some markets you want to own Tech stocks. In others you want to own Bonds.

Some cycles you don't want to own either, and Energy stocks are where you might want to be.

That's just how the market works. Sectors and even asset classes rotate.

In wine it's the same thing

If you're having a delicate white fish, do you really want a big heavy red wine with that? Like a Barolo or a Bordeaux?

Probably not.

You want a nice refreshing white wine to balance that oil from the fish and not overpower the dish.

You want the wine to improve the food experience, not hurt it.

Here's the rule of thumb:

If you're at a restaurant, you want to order a wine that will help the food shine.

The food is the star of the show. The wine is just designed to help.

If you're at a winery, then it's the wine that's the focal point.

Any food involved in the wine tasting should be designed to enhance the wine tasting experience.

You don't want the food to steal the show there. Quite the opposite. You're there to taste wine. Let the wine be the star.

In markets it's like that, too.

You don't want to overpower the market and force strategies upon it if it's not the right time.

You want to adapt to the data and act accordingly.

You are not the star of the show. The market is. We're just trying to make our experience better – or more profitable, if you will.

If you're having a big juicy ribeye, you don't want a sweet dessert wine to go with it. You're looking for a high-acid, high-tannin, high-alcohol red wine to balance out the flavors from the beef.

You want a Cabernet Sauvignon, perhaps a Merlot.

Chicken & Waffles? Champagne.

Oysters? Muscadet

BBQ Ribs? Zinfandel

Every wine has its place.

Every strategy has its time.

The Biggest Mistake​

Humans have no patience. We want to find a hack and skip to the answer.

It's perfectly natural. To not feel these emotions would be inhuman.

So recognize them, and embrace them.

When it comes to financial markets, we often jump to conclusions based on a single data point or anecdote.

We can't help ourselves.

Professionals who are aware of these natural emotions embrace this behavior.

But they put it into context within a Top-Down, deductive approach.

Still, one headline can spark a ton of emotion for investors who can't help themselves – often costing them a fortune.

Sommeliers are the same, me included. I am 100% guilty of this when I train with Master Sommeliers.

We can't help but see that dark purple color and peppery flavors and shout, "That's a Northern Rhône Syrah. Easy!"

When it turns out to be a Gamay from Beaujolais you missed because you didn't weigh all the evidence...

That's how it works in markets.

You want to weigh ALL the evidence. To make conclusions without doing that FIRST, is irresponsible.

It's the same thing with wine.

In fact, the Court of Master Sommeliers even has a Deductive Method tasting sheet:



Take a look at that.

This is what I fill out as I think about what grape I'm drinking...

What country it's from...

What year it was harvested...

And where on the hierarchy of quality the wine falls.

Look how detailed the Sommeliers get.

That's how detailed we get in markets too!

What is the direction of the primary trend?

What is the direction of the shorter-term trend?

Which sectors are leaders?

Which Industry groups are driving those sectors?

How does the intermarket landscape impact equities?

Is it a rising volatility regime or falling volatility environment?

The problem is that most humans see a data point, jump to it, and act.

In blind tasting wine, the humans are doing the same thing.

And that's part of why everybody's wrong.

They jump to conclusions.

Don't do that.

Act like if you're blind-tasting four wines, say two whites and two reds.

You have to weigh all the evidence you have, in order to make the best decision you can make.

Or it'll cost you.

And if you’ve been around me long enough, you know that regime models are my thing. Right now, all signs are pointing to one of my favorites: Reflation. You’ve seen this play before: Gold, silver, and miners start to wake up. The dollar slips or the Fed loosens. Global growth ticks up. EM starts to outperform. Copper joins the party. Oil follows.

​

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It’s the cycle within the cycle. But here’s the key: This is a framework—not a forecast. I only take the trades when price confirms. No signal, no entry. So if you're seeing global growth and inflation both accelerating, here's the Reflation Playbook: Risk > Defense High Beta > Low Beta Growth > Value Cyclicals > Defensives Small & Mid Caps > Large Caps International > U.S. EM > DM Spreads > Treasuries Short rates > Long Rates High Yield > Investment Grade Precious Metals=Industrial Commodities > Energy > Ags FX > USD Watch the signals. Respect the rotation. Let price lead. Because when you know the regime, the rest gets a lot easier.

Welcome back for another Top Down Trade of the Week. This one’s a classic leadership scan. We start with the best sectors, then drill into the subgroups. We pick one, and then take a look at the top stocks in it. This week, Technology is the big standout—climbing seven spots in our sector rankings.

​

While Energy maintains the top spot, Industrials and Communications have also gained ground. Here is a look at our overall industry rankings, which shows semiconductors jumping into the top 5.

​

Semis just failed to complete a top relative to the broader market and are now reasserting their leadership. If this risk-on group is in good shape, then stocks are likely to perform well in the future. So this is a positive development from a broader market perspective. These are the Top 10 semiconductor names, sorted by relative strength.

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My favorite setup from the list is Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd $CRDO:

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The stock has been carving out a base for most of the year. After a big move recently it looks like all the overhead supply at this resistance zone has been absorbed. . If and when it breaks above 86, I want to be long with a target of 121.

• Speculative growth stocks have staged an impressive comeback recently, with the Ark Innovation ETF ($ARKK) breaking out to a three-year high today.
• It soared +9% this week while the S&P 500 remained unchanged, marking the best week for $ARKK vs. $SPY since November and the 9th best on record.
• Randy notes the resurgence in speculative growth looks sustainable, with $ARKK breaking out on both an absolute and relative basis. Top holdings currently include $TSLA, $COIN, $CRCL, $ROKU, and $RBLX.

The Takeaway: With $ARKK breaking out to multi-year highs on both an absolute and relative basis, the rotation into speculative growth looks sustainable.









Full:https://econofact.org/the-rise-of-stablecoins-and-how-to-regulate-them


Regulations of Stablecoins:https://www.morningstar.com/markets/regulatory-tides-bolstering-stablecoins



Full:https://www.theblock.co/post/358924/circle-stock-200-two-weeks-going-public





Full:https://www.wsj.com/business/the-bi...a?st=EEkmkh&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink


AI coming for the professions:


Publishers face an existential threat in the AI era and need to take action to make sure they are fairly compensated for their content, Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince told Axios at an event in Cannes on Thursday.
Why it matters: Search traffic referrals have plummeted as people increasingly rely on AI summaries to answer their queries, forcing many publishers to reevaluate their business models.

Startling stat: Ten years ago, Google crawled two pages for every visitor it sent a publisher, per Prince.

• He said that six months ago:
  • For Google that ratio was 6:1
  • For OpenAI, it was 250:1
  • For Anthropic, it was 6,000:1
• Now:
  • For Google, it's 18:1
  • For OpenAI, it's 1,500:1
  • For Anthropic, it's 60,000:1

Between the lines: "People aren't following the footnotes," Prince said.

• While search engines and AI chatbots include links to original sources, publishers can only derive advertising revenue if readers click through.
• "People trust the AI more over the last six months, which means they're not reading original content," he said.
• "The future of the web is going to be more and more like AI, and that means that people are going to be reading the summaries of your content, not the original content."

What to watch: Prince said Cloudflare is working on a new tool that will stop content scraping.

• "That's the easy step, and that's coming very, very soon, and every publisher you have ever heard of is on board," he said.
• Cloudflare, which provides a number of tech services including cybersecurity and content delivery networks, recently launched a tool that obstructs bots that ignore "no crawl" directives.

The bottom line: Prince is optimistic Cloudflare can pull this off.

• "I go to war every single day with the Chinese government, the Russian government, the Iranians, the North Koreans, probably Americans, the Israelis, all of them who are trying to hack into our customer sites. And you're telling me, I can't stop some nerd with a C-corporation in Palo Alto?"

So I know @peter2 mentioned in his thread that he is trading this stock. Usually I avoid IPO stocks, let them season and gain some history. However this is different in that the fundamentals are already in plain sight and they indicate massive growth.










So the power's that be NEED stablecoin growth to buy all the Treasury paper that they will issue. Who else, after all is stupid enough to do so?

Ultimately this stock goes to ZERO. But there will be years of growth first.

Monday, I hold my nose and buy.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

For a certain age in England





jog on
duc

 

[peter2]

So, stablecoins are going to save the US economy. Fiserv (FI.us) is another company to issues it's own USD backed stablecoin.
Certainly going to be plenty more now that there's legislative support.

 

[ducati916]

Full:https://gizmodo.com/the-50-billion-company-that-does-almost-nothing-2000618670



The Social Security trust fund is on track to run out of money in nine years, its trustees said in a new report Wednesday, a year sooner than the last projection.
Why it matters: The U.S. faces a major fiscal reckoning in the early 2030s, as retirement benefits would be on track to be slashed automatically, if Congress does not act to preserve the benefits on which millions of Americans rely.

• A law enacted at the start of this year expanding Social Security for railroad and public pension recipients was the main reason for the quicker drawdown.

By the numbers: The new Social Security and Medicare Trustees report, the government's formal annual estimate of the programs' finances, finds that the trust fund for the Social Security retirement program is set to go bust in 2033, the same as last year.

• At that time, its incoming tax revenues would be enough to pay only 77% of scheduled benefits, barring a change by Congress.
• Combining the old-age and disability programs would buy future Congresses another year, with the combined programs able to pay 81% of scheduled benefits starting in 2034 — not 2035, as estimated a year ago.

State of play: The trustees attributed the earlier shortfall in large part to the Social Security Fairness Act, passed by large bipartisan majorities and signed by former President Biden on Jan. 5.

• The trustees also cut their estimates of fertility rates and adjusted their estimate of the long-term share of GDP paid as wages.

Of note: Medicare's hospital insurance trust fund is also scheduled to run out in 2033, three years earlier than reported last year, and would then only be able to pay 89% of benefits absent changes.

• Speaking with reporters Wednesday, a government official said Wednesday that hospital usage surged in 2024 after lower rates in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic.
• "Was that foregone services from the COVID-related experience… or is there some broader change in terms of how health care is being dispensed?" the official said. "Obviously something we will continue to monitor."

The bottom line: What has seemed like a distant problem in the finances of America's signature entitlement programs is not so distant anymore.


President Trump has made the presidency extremely profitable for himself.
Why it matters: Trump continues to pursue wealth-building avenues tied to his political agendaas Democrats continue to allege massive conflicts of interest.

Driving the news: The Trump Organization announced a phone business as its next venture on Monday, on the 10th anniversary of Trump announcing his first White House run.
By the numbers: Trump reported more than $600 million in income from his cryptocurrency venture and a broad range of merchandise, according to financial documents released on Friday, the first disclosure of his assets since he returned to the White House.

• According to a Reuters calculation, Trump reported assets worth at least $1.6 billion.
• Trump disclosed a massive $57 million token sale through WLF Holdco LLC, which owns World Liberty Financial Inc., a Trump family crypto company for which Trump serves as "Chief Crypto Advocate."

What they're saying: "President Trump, Vice President Vance, and senior White House staff have completed required ethics briefings and financial reporting obligations," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement to Reuters. "The Trump Administration is committed to transparency and accessibility for the American people."
Trump's crypto-friendly second-term has raised concerns from progressive Democrats about Trump's own financial stake in crypto, which stands to benefit from pending legislation.
The other side: Those concerns have stalled passage of the bipartisan GENIUS Act, the Senate's first-ever stablecoin regulation.

• Some Democrats raised concerns after the New York Times reported that President Trump's family members could profit from the $2 billion deal of their stablecoins that would be used for a foreign transaction involving an Abu Dhabi investment fund.

Merch has also been a boon for the president.

• Licensing deals that Trump has with companies selling products using his name and likeness translated to millions of dollars in royalties.
• That includes more than $1.3 million from Lee Greenwood's "God Bless the USA" Bible. Trump, while campaigning in 2024, asked supporters to purchase the Bible – for $59.99 per copy – to "make America pray again."
• Trump also netted $2.5 million from Trump sneakers and fragrances, $2.8 million selling Trump watches, and more than $1 million on a "45" guitar.

What we're watching: The president's phone venture, "Trump Mobile," is up next.

• Phones will be both built and remanufactured in the U.S., and the phone plan, which will cost $47.45 a month, a nod to Trump serving as the 45th and 47th U.S. president.
• A new smartphone called the T1 is set for release in September and will cost $499.
• An image from the Trump Mobile website shows a gold-plated phone engraved with an American flag on the back. The website says the phones are made in the U.S

From Strazza

Earnings Spotlight: One Semi to Watch Welcome to The Weekly Beat. As we near the end of this earnings season, there's still plenty of action around here. Last week, we saw a double beat from a software giant, which resulted in a massive selloff. We also heard from one of the largest homebuilders in the United States, and it wasn't good. And with several prominent names sitting at critical levels, the stakes are only getting higher. In this week’s recap, we cover the key reactions from last week and preview the setups we’re focused on heading into next week. What happened last week Monday: Adobe $ADBE reported a double beat and fell 5.3% on the news. The bears continued selling as the price closed the week at a new multi-week low. In addition, the stock is below the VWAP anchored to the key pivot low on April 7, 2025. Tuesday: No earnings reactions in the S&P 500, but we spotlighted a major policy headline that just rocked the solar industry. Amid the wreckage, one name is showing tremendous relative strength. Wednesday: Jabil $JBL reported a double beat and rallied 8.9%. This was the stock's 4th consecutive positive earnings reaction. Lennar $LEN reported mixed results and was punished for it. The stock fell 4.5%, marking the 7th consecutive negative earnings reaction. Thursday: Markets were closed for the U.S. federal holiday, Juneteenth. Friday: No earnings reactions in the S&P 500, but we dove into what's happening with Regional Banks right now. One of our favorites is on the cusp of resolving a massive base. What's happening next week After Tuesday's closing bell, we'll hear from the $54B transportation behemoth, FedEx $FDX. They have been punished for 3 consecutive earnings reports, and we'll be watching closely to see if the bulls can snap the losing streak. After Thursday's closing bell, we'll hear from athletic apparel giant, Nike $NKE. This company has been one of the biggest disasters in the S&P 500 in recent years. The market has punished shareholders for 9 of the last 12 earnings reports. We'll also hear from Jefferies Financial $JEF, Paychex $PAYX, Carnival $CCL, and others. There will be a lot to unpack here at The Beat Report. We're most looking forward to the Micron $MU earnings report after Wednesday’s close, and here's why. The $138B semiconductor stock is trading at its highest level since this time last year. The MU setup ahead of Wednesday's earnings event

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The market expects Micron to report $8.85B in revenues and $1.59 in earnings per share. This company sits at the heart of one of the most important trends in tech: memory and storage. They're one of the few companies globally that manufacture DRAM and NAND chips, essential building blocks for everything from smartphones and PCs to cloud computing and artificial intelligence. While GPU makers like Nvidia have dominated the AI narrative, Micron is a critical player behind the scenes. AI workloads require massive amounts of high-bandwidth memory, and demand for next-gen HBM products is expected to surge. Management has repeatedly called out 2025 and 2026 as inflection years, driven by tight supply, AI-driven demand, and a more disciplined pricing environment. Yet despite that tailwind, the stock has been punished for two straight earnings reports, suggesting the bar is high and investors are demanding more than long-term promises... they want near-term execution. The big question now: will this be the quarter where investors start rewarding the progress again? We'll find out during the Wednesday night conference call and in Thursday's market reaction. Semiconductors are at a key level of interest

​

As you can see, the Semiconductor ETF $SMH has been carving out a base for over a year. Since bottoming on April 7, the price has rallied over 50% in 50 trading sessions. Now, it's flirting with a massive breakout. Micron is the 5th-largest holding, so rallying after Wednesday's earnings event could spark a fresh leg higher in the industry ETF. New all-time highs in SMH would be incredibly bullish for the broader market. Do you think it will happen?

From JC;

• People are making things up about how investors feel.
• Some of it is ignorance, but a lot of it is intent.
• It is a simple matter of right vs wrong.

Here's the thing about market sentiment: It's hard to gauge.

But we don't have to pretend.

We know.

It's quite obvious, however, that other people, with extreme insecurities, do actually have to pretend.

And they're embarrassing themselves.

Technical Analysis, broadly defined, is the study of the behavior of the market.

Sentiment, in the context of Technical Analysis, is the specific study of the humans who participate in and determine market behavior.

When we study sentiment, we're looking at human beings and their mindset as opposed to price action.

Understanding the psychological and emotional state of any one human is hard enough.

Getting a grip on an entire global financial market's worth of human beings is even harder.

And, given that we humans make them, all sentiment indicators are flawed.

Some are way more flawed than others, though.

Newer indicators – from random sources never even formally trained in Technical Analysis – are getting progressively worse.

And it's not going to stop.

Expect more bad sentiment indicators from less informed investors.

And that's good.

I have no problem with investors who don't know any better being misled by content creators – classic blind-leading-the-blind scenario.

Ultimately, what they're creating is more opportunity for you and me to profit.

CNN Fear & Greed Index​

The classic case of the useless sentiment indicator is of course the CNN Fear and Greed Index.

This is the template for the charlatans introducing their own worthless gauges:



The problem is in its construction.

There's barely any data in the "indicator" that even involves sentiment.

CNN uses seven data points for this reading. The first three are trending in nature, not mean-reverting: momentum, price trends, and market breadth.

To use these data points as a contrarian measure of fear and greed is already flawed.

Garbage in, garbage out.

Another two have to do with the Bond Market.

You see, the people who made up this indicator did so during a deflationary regime when stocks and bonds had a tendency to trade inversely amid elevated stress.

But, historically, that isn't always the case.

And it certainly hasn't been the case for several years now.

Indicators that only make sense in certain regimes are doomed to fail.

This CNN thing fits the bill.

Two measures of market behavior they use that are, in fact, mean-reverting, particularly from extremes, are the Cboe Volatility Index and put/call ratios.

These two are actually not terrible additions to this indicator. The rest make little sense.

To CNN's credit, they provide a lot of detail and show us how their indicator is constructed.

So we can decide for ourselves whether it deserves our attention or not.

Some of these newer "indicators" don't even show you how they're calculated.

Those are the worst ones.

Don't just walk away when you see that.

Run.

Right vs Wrong​

CNN is pretty above-board.

But the conflicts of interest when it comes to others creating similar indicators are even worse than you think.

Some of them are built by people who don't know any better. But they employ people who do know better.

And these people can't even stand up and acknowledge the uselessness because they can't get a job anywhere else.

So they just keep their mouth shut hoping it all goes away.

But their bosses want them to push that garbage on ignorant people who have no way of knowing how bad it actually is.

This is a classic case of hurting your audience for your own selfish gain.

We see it all the time.

They're all wrong.

And we love that.

We'll keep showing you what's right.

I can't help myself.

Stay sharp,

Efforts from the Trump administration to cajole the Federal Reserveinto cutting interest rates has taken a new form over the last week, with several senior officials beside the president joining the pressure campaign. The big picture: In Trump's first term, the president jawboned chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates. What's different this time around is that it has become a unified message from across the administration. There is an economic case to be made for the Fed to cut rates soon, which just this morning, a top central bank official made in a speech. But a core Trump argument — that rate cuts need to happen to save the government money on its borrowing costs — will likely be particularly unpersuasive to decisionmakers at the central bank. What they're saying: "Our Federal Reserve Chair is obviously afraid of his own shadow," Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick wrote on X last Friday. "These high Interest Rates make no sense. Enough is enough!!!" Vice President JD Vance wrote on X earlier this month that "the refusal by the Fed to cut rates is monetary malpractice." "I think there's no reason at all for the Fed not to cut rates right now," White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on CNBC this morning. "And I would guess that if they see one more month of data, they're going to really have to concede that they've got the rate way too high." State of play: The last couple of months of inflation data have come in low, supporting the possibility of the Fed cutting its target interest rate below its current level of around 4.4%. But the consensus view of Fed officials — articulated by Powell in his news conference last week — is that the central bank has to hold its fire amid fear of a price surge due to tariffs. After four straight years of overshooting their 2% inflation target, the officials are wary of signaling lack of resolve to fully quash inflation. Moreover, they see the job market as in basically sound shape. Yes, but: Two top Fed officials, both appointed by Trump, appear to be at odds with that consensus view and ready to deliver rate cuts next month. This morning, Fed vice chair for supervision Michelle Bowman said "should inflation pressures remain contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting in order to bring it closer to its neutral setting and to sustain a healthy labor market." On Friday, Fed governor Christopher Waller said on CNBC that any tariff-fueled inflation is likely to be temporary, and tentatively endorsed cutting rates next month.

Bowman and Waller are making a rate cut argument that has a shot of persuading their colleagues around the table at the FOMC. It's distinctly different from the one Trump himself is making. Trump said Friday on Truth Social that "numbskull" Powell would save the federal government up to $1 trillion by cutting rates. It was the latest in his repeated calls for the central bank to lower rates to save the government money on its debt service costs. Reality check: If bond investors came to believe that the Fed was setting rates based on what would be most advantageous for the government's debt service costs, rather what is justified by inflation and growth, they would start to price in higher long-term inflation and thus higher long-term rates. "We have to cut rates to save the government money" is a nonstarter of an argument among central bankers, and would be counterproductive if they were seen as acting on the impulse. The whole point of giving central banks a measure of independence is to ensure they don't simply do what is most convenient for fiscal policy, but rather what is best for the economy in the medium term. What's next: Powell is set to testify tomorrow and Wednesday on Capitol Hill, delivering his semiannual monetary policy report known as the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. What we're watching: Whether the new enthusiasm for cheaper money, embraced across the Trump administration, is shared by congressional Republicans, who have traditionally preached the virtues of monetary hawkishness.

Full:https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...n-says-has-every-right-nuclear-energy-program



TACO


Trump didn’t chicken out this time. As the US attempt to obliterate Iran’s nuclear sites ratchets up geopolitical tensions, the next critical question in the game of chicken is what the Islamic Republic does to retaliate. Its parliament has already voted to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supply flows. If the country were to go through with that — and parliament doesn’t make the decision — then risk will climb higher. Prediction markets think it will probably happen:


At the opening of Asian trading, crude oil did indeed rise significantly, with Brent crude topping $80 for the first time since last June. But the increase of 6% was relatively muted given all the political noise, and it didn’t hold above $80:


Realistically, the template for hope is the first Gulf War in 1991, after Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait. That was a rare geopolitical incident that arose quickly, and was soon completely resolved:


A massive Western military response booted Iraq out of Kuwait with surprising ease, and the supply of oil swiftly resumed. This time, the US has already declared its mission a success, without boots on the ground or loss of American life. But examples abound of misplaced optimism about short wars, from the First World War (supposedly “over by Christmas”), through Vietnam and “Mission Accomplished” in Iraq, to Russia’s misadventure in Ukraine.

The case against escalation is that Iran is already Monty Python’s Black Knight:

• Its nuclear program has been put back by years.
• It’s lost control of its own skies.
• Its proxies in the region — Hamas, Hezbollah, the Assads in Syria and the Houthis in Yemen — have been neutralized or weakened.
• Its most powerful allies aren’t keen to help — Russia is embroiled in Ukraine, and China needs Iran’s oil to keep flowing.

Tehran’s best available option might be, like Saddam after 1991, to reinforce itself at home while desisting from greater offensive ambitions. That would be a win for the US, and the oil market.

Yet the regime has no choice but to retaliate if it wants to maintain its hold over its own people. Doing nothing would guarantee regime change. If it is to fall, it would far rather do so with a bang than a whimper. Closing the Strait, however, would be a desperate measure that might not last long. Tina Fordham of Fordham Global Foresight in London points out that parliament voted in a “consultative capacity”:

Such a move would have to be approved by the Supreme National Security Council... It is not clear at this time whether this action will be implemented or is a kind of protest vote from the parliament. Long regarded as Iran’s “nuclear option” for the global economy, any move to close the Strait could be undermined by the US carrier (and likely US Navy SEAL) presence in the region — the likelihood is that the US response would be swift and severe.

Such an escalation would evidently create further risks, and until they have been contained as convincingly as they were by February 1991 after the Kuwait invasion, risk assets face a headwind. To quote Larry McDonald of Bear Traps Report:

Iran has little downside to talking up the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The real pain is the closure itself, which affects China, their cash cow, far more than the rest of the world. Bottom line: Oil prices will likely be elevated for the rest of the summer.

That would make it harder for the Federal Reserve to ease rates, and dampen economic activity. And that would in turn mean hits to commercial real estate, private credit, CCC-rated bonds, housing, and the US consumer.

For now, what’s happened is a headwind for global equities. It’s little more than that as yet, but TACO-happy investors might want to take some money off the table.



jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Full:https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-...e-stablecoin-genius-act-might-not-be-so-smart




Full:https://www.wsj.com/business/logist...8?st=DE9AvY&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

I don't particularly consider myself a Luddite, but, just saying.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

France



Full:https://www.zerohedge.com/political/france-no-longer-france


jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

France

View attachment 202276

Full:https://www.zerohedge.com/political/france-no-longer-france


jog on
duc

Imagine how i feel but i was "exaggerating, was racist, islamophobe "30y ago...
People there have had free vote for 3 decades, in the first 2 decades, there were enough native to actually be able to vote for change, they did not, not it is too late
do not cry for stupidity.
Be selfish
And imf is considering bailout options economically wise, the lot going together

 

[TimeISmoney]

France

View attachment 202276

Full:https://www.zerohedge.com/political/france-no-longer-france


jog on
duc

Geebus!
What the hell is wrong with people these days?

 

[ducati916]

Fed:

Two Trump-appointed Fed officials favor interest rate cuts as soon as next month. Seven of their colleagues don't envision cutting rates this year at all. Why it matters: It amounts to the biggest divide over the proper course for policy in years, one with delicate political optics as the Trump administration and some Republican lawmakers beat the drum for lower rates. The tension boils down to whether the Fed should hold back from adjusting policy, despite falling inflation in backward-looking data, because of the inflation risks ahead due to tariffs. State of play: Powell, in his news conference last week and in this morning's congressional testimony, stuck to the wait-and-see message. He argued that the uncertainty around how prices will evolve calls for patience. It comes after governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman said in recent days that rate cuts could make sense at the Fed's July policy meeting. They emphasized that any tariff-driven inflation would be a one-time adjustment, not a driver of ongoing inflation. Yes, but: They appear to be outliers on the committee. In projections last week, seven of 19 top Fed leaders envisioned leaving interest rates steady through the end of the year. Ten officials envisioned one or two rate cuts this year. Two officials envisioned three rate cuts this year. The projections do not have names attached, but it is reasonable to guess that those were Waller and Bowman. Between the lines: It's rare for two governors to openly adopt a policy view that diverges from the Fed leadership's party line. In contrast to reserve bank presidents, governors work in Washington alongside the chair, and in their publicly stated views, they rarely stray too far from the consensus. Governors tend to play an inside game rather than an outside game, which makes the open disagreement in the last few days all the more surprising — and evidence of wider-than-usual divides within the central bank. What they're saying: Asked why the Fed has not cut interest rates as aggressively as many other global central banks, Powell said, "[Y]ou're right that if you just look in the rearview mirror and look at the existing data that we've seen, you can make a good argument that would call for us to be at a neutral level, which would be a couple of cuts, maybe more." "The reason we're not [cutting rates] is forecasts ... that do expect meaningful inflation over the course of the next year." Asked about Bowman's and Waller's arguments for a potential July rate cut, Powell said that "if it turns out that inflation pressures do remain contained, we will get to a place where we cut rates sooner rather than later." "I wouldn't want to point to a particular meeting. I don't think we need to be in any rush, because the economy is still strong," Powell added.

Oil News:


US electricity demand is expected to soar to levels not seen since the summer of 2013 as regional operator PJM warned of consumption potentially reaching 158 GW, with temperatures nearing 100°F.

- Power demand in the US averaged 36.5 BCf/d over the weekend before skyrocketing to 47.5 BCf/d on 24-25 June, greatly slowing down the pace of US natural gas storage injections this week.

- Henry Hub gas futures in the US showed little reaction to the unfolding Israel-Iran conflict and moved within a relatively narrow $3.5-4.0 per mmBtu range throughout June, with the September 2025 contract remaining the most traded one.

- Higher temperatures have capped US feed gas demand around 15 BCf/d despite the return of Sabine Pass LNG from a month-long maintenance period, just as global LNG prices shed all geopolitical risk premium and are back to trading at $13 per mmBtu.

Market Movers

- US LNG developer Glenfarne signed a non-binding agreement with Thailand’s national oil company PTT for ‘strategic participation’ in the 20 mtpa Alaska LNG project, preliminarily agreeing on supplying 2 mtpa LNG for 20 years.

- Italy’s oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) is seeking to spin off its Italian refining business into a separate entity as part of its ‘satellite’ strategy to attract more investment, including its recently built bio-refineries.

- UK energy giant BP (NYSE:BP) has suspended the development of its blue hydrogen project at its Whiting refinery in Indiana, as the Department of Energy disbursed only $22 million from a Biden-era $1 billion hydrogen grant.

- Canada’s midstream giant Keyera (TSE:KEY) has agreed to purchase the entire Canadian NGL business of Plains All American Pipeline’s (NASDAQAA) for $5.15 billion plus select US assets.

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Oil prices reacted to the Israel-Iran ceasefire quicker than they did at the onset of the conflict, falling by $6.5 per barrel on Monday, with ICE Brent continuing the drop below $70 per barrel. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz seems to be off the immediate agenda, provided the two belligerent sides stick to the truce, putting a largely unexpected end to the most volatile trading period since the summer of 2022.

US LNG Capacity To Boom under Trump. US LNG major Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG) took a final investment decision in the expansion of the Corpus Christi LNG project, boosting the site’s capacity by two additional trains with a capacity of 6 mtpa to a total of 60 mtpa, all the while debottlenecking 5 mtpa of future liquefaction.

India Imports Record Volumes of Oil. India’s crude imports reached an all-time high of 23.32 million metric tonnes in May, up 10% from a month ago, with Russia accounting for almost 40% of total imports and Iraq taking a 22% share, whilst Saudi Arabian inflows continue to decline.

Iraq’s Upstream Gets Caught in the Crosshairs. European oil companies operating in Iraq have started evacuating their staff from the Middle Eastern country’s oil fields, with BP (NYSE:BP), ENI (BIT:ENI), and TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) all claiming that these measures would not impact production.

Central Europe Blocks EU’s Energy Sanctions. The European Union struggles to adopt its 18th sanctions package against Russia after member countries Hungary and Slovakia vetoed the phase out of Russian energy imports, but Brussels is seeking ways to sidestep their opposition.

Venezuela’s Refining Starts to Fall Apart. Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA was forcedto halt production at its 310,000 b/d Cardon refinery after a power blackout, losing some 50,000 b/d of refined products output less than a month after the plant restarted its fluid catalytic cracking unit.

Middle East Insurance Rates Balloon. US attacks on Iranian nuclear sites and Tehran’s attack on Qatar have pushed insurance rates across the Middle East to 0.5% of cargo value, a fourfold increase from a month ago, whilst VLCC freight rates have also doubled week-on-week to $60,000 per day.

‘King Coal’ Set to Return in Style. As both European and Asian LNG prices moved past $14 per mmBtu, thermal coal prices rose to multi-month highs with Europe’s API 2 futures contract seeing the highest daily traded volume this year on Monday, in anticipation of firm summer demand.

Defying Producers, Congo Extends Cobalt Export Ban. Cobalt prices rose to a 3-month high after the Democratic Republic of Congo extended its ban on cobalt exports for another three months, triggering the ire of miners Glencore and CMOC as Wuxi futures soared above $35 per kg.

Canada Is Finally a LNG Producer. The $40 billion LNG Canada project developed by Shell (LON:SHEL) produced its first liquefied natural gas for export, set to become the first cargo in Canada’s history, with LNG carrier Gaslog Glasgow expected to arrive at Kitimat on 29 June for loading.

China’s Solar Ambition Knows No Bounds. Under pressure from Trump’s tariffs, China has been boosting domestic solar installations as last month’s tally of new solar capacity soared to 93 GW, a new all-time high and a 30% increase over the previous record, also set by China last December.

Niger Nationalizes French Uranium Mine. Niger’s military junta seized control of the Somair uranium mine, operated by France’s nuclear giant Orano after Niamey accused the French side of extracting more uranium than the allowed 63.4% stake, thus violating the shareholder agreement.

LNG Freight Soars on Tanker Tightness. As Asia’s benchmark JKM liquefied natural gas prices rose to $14.8 per mmBtu earlier this week, only to plunge back to $13.2 per mmBtu after the ceasefire announcement, LNG freight rose to an 8-month high, with the Atlantic daily rate climbing to $51,750 per day.

China Doubles 2025 Naphtha Quota. China issued its second batch of import quotas for 2025, almost doubling last year’s allocations to 24 million tonnes, with Beijing seeking to ensure adequate petrochemical feedstock supply after the Trump administration derailed ethane exports to China.

Every major commodity boom of the last 25 years has followed the same blueprint: CRB Index starts curling higher Yield curve inverts… then steepens And commodities don’t just rally—they detonate. Look at the chart.

​

​

2001 → Inversion → Steepening → Oil +300% 2006 → Same setup → Same outcome 2020 → Rinse and repeat And now? It’s happening again. The CRB is coiling just beneath multi-year resistance. The kind of tight, coiled spring that doesn’t let go gently. Momentum is building. The yield curve—the most reliable forward indicator we’ve got—is turning up from historic depths. This isn’t some lagging inflation print. This isn’t a Fed narrative. This is price. And price is truth. This is a setup that only comes around a few times in a generation. Most investors sleep through it. They wait for confirmation. They miss it. But not you. Hemingway once said bankruptcy happens two ways: gradually, then suddenly. Commodity cycles are the same. They creep. They churn. Then they rip. This is that moment in the novel where the foreshadowing stops—and the explosion begins. You don’t chase it. You position for it. Because when this base resolves higher, it’s not a breakout. It’s a regime shift. And this time, you’re not a spectator. You’re already in your seat, popcorn in hand, front row for the next act.

• Crude Oil reversed sharply lower today despite escalating tensions with Iran over the weekend. Futures closed at $68.50 per barrel, dropping over -7% on the day and nearly -13% from an intraday high of $79.
  
• Futures initially gapped higher by +5.6%, opening at $78 per barrel on Sunday evening. However, price immediately met resistance at $79, before bleeding lower throughout the day.
  
• Crude broke a 14-month downtrend line today, but closed decisively below it, marking a Failed Breakout. Sentiment turned feverish this weekend, but bulls are now trapped until this trendline gets repaired.
  

The Takeaway: Despite heightened tensions in the Middle East, Crude Oil saw a dramatic reversal today, plunging nearly -13% from its intraday peak of $79 to its closing price of $68.50. With bulls now trapped, the path of least resistance is likely lower in the near term.



TSLA


Alphabet's (GOOGL) Waymo now has competition as Tesla (TSLA) rolled out its robotaxi software this weekend. The EV giant's autonomous taxis took their inaugural rides in Austin, Texas for a limited number of invite-only customers. Given that limited initial release, it's fair to say that the robotaxi still has some time left until they are a common site like Ubers (UBER), Lyfts (LYFT), and Waymos in select cities, but nonetheless, robotaxis are now on the road. In response to this news, shares of Tesla (TSLA) are surging. At intraday highs, the stock was up 10%+, and although it has pulled back since then, it is still up an impressive 9.4% as of this writing. That ranks in the 98th percentile of daily gains since the stock first hit the public market 15 years ago this month.



As shown in the chart above, while the move today is large, there's actually been plenty of precedent for as large, if not larger, moves in the past several months. In fact, today's move is only the largest gain since April 25th when it was up 9.8%, and it was up an even larger 22.7% on April 9 after the announcement of the reciprocal tariff suspension by President Trump. Putting all this context together, in the chart below we show TSLA's average daily change (in absolute terms) on a rolling six-month basis. As shown, the only time daily volatility has been higher for TSLA was during the early days of COVID.



Along with high daily volatility, Tesla (TSLA) has had a roller-coaster ride over the last year with four 20%+ rallies and four 20%+ declines. After rallying 150% in the back half of 2024, TSLA fell more than 50% earlier this year. The stock most recently fell 21% over a 9-day stretch from May 27th through June 5th when Elon Musk was fighting with President Trump online. Since the 5th, things have settled down, and the stock has quickly bounced back by 23%.



To get a read on how common it is for Tesla (TSLA) to see this sort of volatility, in the charts below we show the number of TSLA 20%+ rallies and declines by year since its IPO 15 years ago. Since its IPO, TSLA has averaged 4.25 bull/bear market cycles per year. It has already seen five in 2025.

In the second chart below, we show the number of these rallies and declines per year only through the month of June. Again, 2025 has already seen 5 of these rallies and declines, which surpasses the four seen in 2021 and 2022 for a new record.








From JC;

• People have rarely been this pessimistic about stocks.
• Stress and politics make them lose their minds.
• We profit from irrationality.

This daily e-letter is called "Everybody's Wrong" for a good reason.

We're not here to waste our time with fundamentals and/or geopolitics.

That stuff is too hard.

It's much easier to bet that humans will make irrational decisions.

That's way more consistent.

They won't teach you that in your overpriced MBA program.

And it's not a part of the CFA curriculum.

Heck, it's barely a part of the CMT program.

This is something you need to figure out on your own, through experience and study.

This Divergence Is Huge​

When humans' stress levels are elevated, they make poor decisions – and at the exact wrong times.

My bet is they'll continue to do that every day for the rest of our existence.

What we do here is identify periods when there's a divergence between what people believe is happening and what is actually happening.

Last week, I pointed out how angry the liberals are, expecting the stock market to fall the rest of the year.

The British journalists parading around as economists might somehow be angrier.

It's not just what these freaks are out there thinking.

You can also see the irrational and psychotic behavior expressed in the open market.

Short interest for the U.S. Stock Market is currently at levels rarely seen throughout history.



This chart is from the BofA Global Fund Manager Survey. What it shows is startling.

Not many times over the past two decades have we seen this many investors betting on lower prices.

You can count them on one hand: COVID, the European Debt Crisis/China crash in 2015, and the Global Financial Crisis/Great Recession.

They're just as bearish today.

Let me say that again: Liberals are as angry as they've ever been, even compared to some of the worst market events in living memory.

And the short-sellers are out there shorting every stock in sight.

This is AFTER back to back years of 20%-plus returns for the S&P 500. The Nasdaq doubled over the past couple of years.

We're seeing historic returns among stocks all over the world in 2025.

Shorts Are Guaranteed Buyers​

Humans can't think straight when their stress levels are elevated.

They're out there fighting trends.

They're so angry and scared that they're completely forgetting about the fact that asset prices trend.

And the trend is, and has been, up.

One thing that people forget about short-sellers is that the only way for them to close out their positions is to buy back the stocks they're short.

In other words, shareholders – people who own stocks – are only promising to be future sellers.

Shorts are guaranteed to be future buyers.

The more short-sellers, the more future buyers there are.

And, right now, there are more shorts out there who will eventually have to buy stocks than at almost any other time this century.

That's a good thing for those of us who own stocks and who embrace this bull market.

It's not so good for those who act irrationally and try to fight trends because they're upset about who won an election...

Or they think the Fed is too slow...

Or they can't believe stocks are rising in this economy...

Should we feel sorry for people like this?

I don't. I'm here to profit.

And humans behaving irrationally makes it easier for me to do that.

Shoutout humans.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

From Strazza;


Let’s talk about one name I’ve been pounding the table on: BigBear.ai $BBAI.



This setup didn’t show up overnight. About a month ago, I started building a position in BBAI calls — both June and July expirations.



Within five days, both doubled.



I took half off, like I always do, and let the rest ride risk-free.



But here’s the twist: the breakout never came.



Most traders would’ve moved on. Not me.



I’ve seen this setup before — a picture-perfect coil with rising tension. It didn’t break down. It didn’t fail. It just kept winding tighter. That’s fuel.



So I stayed patient. And then I pressed again.



Yesterday, I stepped in and bought the 8/15 $6 calls for $0.32.



Today, BBAI is up 25% and the squeeze is on — right off that same coil I’ve been watching for weeks. With 23% short interest, this is the kind of breakout that can catch a crowd flat-footed and trigger a serious chain reaction.



This is how these trades work.



It’s not just about chasing momentum — it’s about understanding how pressure builds and staying with the trade when others give up too early.



Now that it’s breaking out, I’m rolling profits right back into the AI theme. This squeeze is just getting started.

There comes a time in every bull market cycle when the worst companies are the best stocks. And this is a feature as far as I’m concerned… not a bug. It speaks to the offensive nature of the market. We call it bullish risk appetite, and it’s happening now. If you know what to do with this kind of market, you can make a killing renting the right stocks at the right time. I did a livestream with my friend Herb Greenberg today, and we caught up afterward. I always love hearing his perspective on the stocks we’re trading. It’s tough to be bearish on some of these speculative growth names in an environment where shorts are getting squeezed, but Herb is the best in the business when it comes to flagging bad actors, so I had to ask him... “What do you know about this BigBear.AI?” And I don’t want to say too much, but I will tell you that he shook his head and laughed at the question. Here’s why I asked… I currently have an 8x overweight position in BBAI stock—as well as a handful of call options and warrants—so I’m interested. The position is starting to work nicely, as the coil resolved today, sending the stock soaring, up 25%.

​

So, I’m thinking to myself… like I often do… maybe this is more than a trade. Maybe this is something I want to hold longer term..? As it turns out, it’s not. Here are some things I do not believe about BBAI: I do not believe their aggressive revenue guidance. The top-line is barely growing. I do not believe the $385M revenue backlog figure at all. The company says 98% of it will be recognized in the coming 12 months, however, only $20M of it is funded, or contractually committed. I do not believe this company warrants comparisons to Palantir. There is only one Palantir, and it ain’t them. I do not believe their CFO just stepped down “to pursue other opportunities” because her LinkedIn still has her working at BigBearAI. There was no advance notice, the transition was effective immediately when announced, and they promoted the next guy in line. None of this smells remotely good to me. But it also doesn’t really matter if I’m just trading the stock. Now, here are some things I do believe about BBAI: I believe it is the perfect story-stock for the current environment. Government contracting meets AI! Drawing comparisons to PLTR! It doesn’t get much better. I believe there is a massive short interest, and a squeeze is just getting underway. I believe this is a textbook coil within the context of a structural base… which is one of those patterns that just keeps working in the current market. I believe the stock is coming off several months of volatility compression, and from compression comes expansion. I believe once the animal spirits are through with this one, I can sell it for a lot higher than what I paid for it. And these are the things that do matter for the bet I’m making on this stock. I do not care if this company ends up being a giant fraud… and to be clear, I’m not suggesting it is. But none of the fundamental stuff is really relevant in light of my short-term objectives. I loaded up into the coil in anticipation of an upside resolution. Now I plan to ride this reaction rally for as much as I can get. And I’ll be taking profits along the way. In fact, I took some today. I bought some August calls with Breakout Multiplier members yesterday and sold half for a double on today’s move. We are now 3-for-3 when it comes to booking free rides on this stock.

Steve Strazza joined legendary investigative journalist Herb Greenberg today to talk about one of the wildest speculative growth stories of the cycle — Hims & Hers ($HIMS).



Herb's been warning about this company since May 2024. And even with the stock doubling since he first flagged it, the red flags are still flying — maybe louder than ever.



Meanwhile, Steve Strazza has been bullish the stock during it's epic rise and trading in and out of options.



This week, $HIMS just had its worst day in history after Novo Nordisk pulled the plug on its partnership.



In this new conversation, Herb pulls back the curtain on the real risk behind Hims, the regulatory landmines it’s walking over, and why even the best charts don’t always tell the full story.



Now a HIMS bear and a (sometimes) bull get together to get to the bottom of it.

• The Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ) officially closed at an all-time high today, recovering from a -23% drawdown in less than three months. This was the 5th deepest drawdown on record for $QQQ, although it was short-lived.
• $QQQ has surged nearly +30% since the April low, and today's breakout unlocks further potential upside, especially as the index approaches a bullish seasonal window (June 26 – July 14).
• All-time highs are the most bullish thing a stock or an index can do. At all-time highs, there's virtually no overhead supply for buyers to contend with, allowing prices to move freely into uncharted territory.

The Takeaway: The Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ) printed an all-time high today, recovering from a -23% drawdown in less than three months. The long-term uptrend has resumed, and another double-digit rally is on the table by year-end.





Since yesterday afternoon, my X feed has been nothing but noise about rising tensions in the Middle East.

The headlines are loud. WWIII chatter. Panic everywhere.

Everyone’s trying to guess what happens next.

But the market’s telling a different story.

Homebuilders ripped. Offensive sectors led.

Silver outperformed gold. Crude oil dropped 8%.

Defensive stocks like staples lagged.

And Bitcoin? Back above 105K.

In the middle of all the chaos, that was the tape — and it was undeniably bullish.

If this is what the end of the world looks like… then sign me up.

As I went through my charts after the bell, one group in particular jumped out: Broker-Dealers.

They don’t get talked about as much as they should — but this is one of the most important groups in the entire market.

These stocks are the heartbeat of the capital markets.

Any real bull market needs buy-in from the most offensive corners of Financials — and this is it.

The Broker-Dealers & Exchanges ETF $IAI just pushed up against all-time highs.


The ETF sports a strong primary uptrend and has been consolidating constructively along the way for years now.

It’s one of the most orderly uptrends I can find anywhere.

What really stands out is how well price continues to respect these Fibonacci extension levels.

Each time we get above one, it’s like a green light for the next leg higher.

Now we’re right up against the 423.6% extension from the 2018–2020 base.

And I think a breakout is imminent.

Above 161 — I’m all in for Broker-Dealers.

One of my favorite Broker-Dealer stocks is Virtu Financial $VIRT.

I’m long this stock — just like its CEO, Doug Cifu.

It’s probably one of the best-looking charts out there.












Lots of bullishness out there in blogoland.

Just remember when the crappy stocks are running, that is not a healthy bull market. It is a highly speculative, frothy market. A market that can collapse very quickly.

It is however a good trading market.

In a trading market you are looking to exit and take profits at your pre-determined exit points. Take losses quickly.

Fundamentally, on a macro basis, there are real problems that are coming to a head. The chartists don't really discuss them, either because they are unaware or don't care or think their charts will save them.

Another example of the mindlessness:



Full:https://www.statnews.com/2025/06/24...-artery-test-doj-scrutiny-medicare-advantage/


jog on
duc

 

[peter2]

Coincidentally I bought that BO in BBAI. I've already sold 1/2 at yesterdays gap open and will watch closely this evening for an exit. I assume BBAI is a worthy P&D stock with dubious fundamentals so will manage with a tight leash.

There's one aspect of the US markets that I've never quite mastered. That is, tracking the bullish sentiment as it goes through the various sectors and industries. The rotational charts are interesting but I've never really studied their effectiveness. Plus they're behind a paywall. The other common method is to list the %gain for a period but I've never liked this as it's always too late to trade the sectors on top.

The sectors lists that you've started posting recently show the positional changes. Now this makes more sense to identify the hot sectors before they hit the top. I need to work out how to do this myself regularly so that I can study the effectiveness for my needs.

 

[ducati916]

Coincidentally I bought that BO in BBAI. I've already sold 1/2 at yesterdays gap open and will watch closely this evening for an exit. I assume BBAI is a worthy P&D stock with dubious fundamentals so will manage with a tight leash.

There's one aspect of the US markets that I've never quite mastered. That is, tracking the bullish sentiment as it goes through the various sectors and industries. The rotational charts are interesting but I've never really studied their effectiveness. Plus they're behind a paywall. The other common method is to list the %gain for a period but I've never liked this as it's always too late to trade the sectors on top.

The sectors lists that you've started posting recently show the positional changes. Now this makes more sense to identify the hot sectors before they hit the top. I need to work out how to do this myself regularly so that I can study the effectiveness for my needs.

Evening Peter,

Let me know which chart it is, it may break down into a more granular chart.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

1 big thing: The ratio that explains trade war economics

Data: McKinsey Global Institute; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios America buys a lot of cotton T-shirts from China — $277 million worth in 2023. We also buy a lot of fireworks — $465 million. But buyers of cotton T-shirts will have a lot more options to avoid the burden of tariffsthan buyers of fireworks. The big picture: That's the implication of revelatory new data from consulting firm McKinsey, which calculated a "rearrangement ratio" for hundreds of different goods the U.S. imports from China. The ratio captures in a single number how hard (or easy) it will be for importers to find alternate, lower-tariff suppliers. That, in turn, helps answer the question of whether 55% tariffs on Chinese imports are likely, for any given product, to result in higher prices or cause importers to switch up and import from elsewhere. Zoom in: The ratio captures the value of U.S. imports of a good from China, relative to the total export volume for the product, excluding the U.S. and China. So a very low number, like 0.04 ratio for cotton T-shirts, indicates that there are plenty of supplies available on the global market, which allows importers lots of flexibility to shift to producers with lower tariffs. A number above 1, like the 1.25 ratio for fireworks, indicates that U.S. imports from China exceed exports for the rest of the world — meaning simply rerouting supply chains is impossible, and importers face high tariffs that they will need to pass on to customers and/or suffer lower profit margins. A number in between, like the 0.59 ratio for gas grills, suggests a product where importers might be able to find alternate supplies, but could struggle to do so, at least in the short run. After all, if U.S. imports from China account for more than half of total available market from the rest of the world, "that's an awful lot of available market to go and capture and try to rearrange," said McKinsey's Olivia White, particularly if those suppliers are locked into existing long-term contracts. Zoom out: The ratio helps capture the reality that not all products are created equal, and a one-size-fits-all analysis of trade economics doesn't capture what's happening on the ground. Goods with low rearrangement ratios are likely to be less affected by the trade war, as importers simply reroute supply chains. Consumer goods with high rearrangement ratios tend to be discretionary purchases that account for a low share of total spending (plastic ornaments, for example, with a ratio of 1.11). Importers are likely to pass on high tariffs, and consumers are likely to buy less. Business inputs, like industrial pumps and precursor chemicals for pharmaceuticals, are a trickier question, as they tend to be essential for U.S. companies producing higher-value products. What they're saying: "Imported consumer goods are going to be more discretionary and have higher price elasticity," White, director of the McKinsey Global Institute, tells Axios. "So to the degree that rearrangement is tricky, people might prefer to buy a little bit less." To understand the economics of tariffs, she said, "what stood out to me was the degree to which you need to look granularly."

President Trump is considering naming his pick for Fed chair much sooner than the historical norm as a way to undermine Jerome Powell in his remaining 11 months on the job, the Wall Street Journal reported late yesterday. It raises the possibility of an awkward year ahead for the world's most powerful central bank. State of play: Powell's term extends until May 2026. If Trump appoints his successor as early as September or October, as the Journal reports he has mused about, it would set up an eight- to nine-month period in which markets would face the dilemma of whether to listen to the current Fed chair or future one for clues on the direction of policy. It is an idea Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explicitly discussed last fall, of creating a "shadow Fed chair." Trump originally appointed Powell to the chairmanship in 2017 but has come to loathe him, calling him a "numbskull," among other insults, for the Fed's current wait-and-see stance on cutting interest rates. The intrigue: The dollar has plunged following the Journal's report, with the dollar index down 0.5% Thursday morning to its lowest level since early 2022. Currency traders, it would seem, prefer stability at the top of the world's most powerful central bank. Of note: There are currently no vacancies on the Fed's seven-member Board of Governors, but Adriana Kugler's spot comes open in January. That gives Trump the option of appointing his pick to that governor slot and then elevating them to chair four months later. That would create an especially awkward period in which Fed policymakers and staff could find themselves torn on whom to turn to for day-to-day leadership — the outgoing guy or the new one.

From JC;

• Even Canadians are wrong about Canada.
• Imperial Oil is a picture of relative strength.
• This new trend is here to stay.

It was Wednesday afternoon, and I was shooting an interview with the talented Catherine Murray.

Off camera Catherine said to me, "You're not investing in Canada, right?"

"You bet I am. Imperial Oil is the best Energy stock in the world!"

She almost fell out of her chair.

Catherine definitely didn't see that one coming.

But it's true.

And it's not just Imperial Oil (IMO).

Canada is much more than America's hat...

See the Relative Strength​

My friend Catherine is a former anchor at Canada's Business News Network (BNN), which later became BNN Bloomberg.

Before she went in front of the camera full-time, she was doing institutional sales and trading at Goldman Sachs, and then Deutsche Bank after that.

Catherine and I have been doing interviews for the better part of a decade.

She knows her stuff. She's great.

Here we are back in the summer of 2018:



I was shooting right from the lobby at Bloomberg HQ, a massive building on Lexington Avenue in Midtown Manhattan.

And here we are LIVE in the Toronto studios in 2017:



Catherine and I were hanging out in Toronto this fall and had a ton of back and forth about the markets.

We caught up recently for another great conversation.

She couldn't believe what I had to say about IMO.

But look at this thing:



Tell me you know of any large-cap Oil & Gas stock that looks this good and is already making new all-time highs.

They don't make many Oil & Gas stocks like this. I dare you to try to find one.

We call this relative strength.

When a stock is outperforming all its peers, by such a large margin, that's evidence of leadership.

We want to own leaders.

Imperial Oil is a $40 billion Energy company based in Calgary.

What's happening in the rest of Canada also stands out.

Remember, Canada's stock market is very different from the U.S. stock market.

For example, Technology represents only 9% of the S&P/TSX Composite Index.

Tech is more than 30% of the S&P 500.

Canada has 16% Energy. The S&P 500 has 3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a 2% Energy weighting.

Materials have a 13% weighting in Canada. In the U.S., it's 1%.

Financials are 13% of the S&P 500 and 0% of the Nasdaq100.

For a little more perspective, Financials represent 33% of the S&P/TSX.

It doesn't make one better than the other. They're just different.

Very different, in fact.

During some markets, one index will massively outperform the other. And then many times that flips, depending on where we are in the cycle.

This year, the iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC) is up more than 13%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up 4%.

Take a look at new all-time highs for Canada:



But, from the beginning of 2023 and through 2024, Canada was only up 28%.

During that same two-year period, the S&P 500 was up 57%. And the Nasdaq100 nearly doubled in value.

See the difference?

There's a time and a place for everything.

This year has been Canada's time. The types of stocks that drive its market have been leaders everywhere.

And I see more and more opportunities coming from the Great White North.

Think Natural Resources... Industrials... Financials.

Canada had made little to no progress since the Great Financial Crisis.

So this trend is new, and it's likely here to stay.

No one thinks it can happen.

Even the great Catherine Murray was surprised at my enthusiasm about Canadian stocks.

Everyone's wrong.

This time it's about Canada.

I like it.

Stay sharp,

From Strazza;

The team and I have been digging through our currency charts today, trying to figure out if we should trust these new lows in the Dollar Index. And the truth is, there is plenty we could say about dollars right now, but I don’t think it would help. The Dollar Index is going to go in the opposite direction of these bull flags in EUR and GBP. It’s really that simple. And as far as other currencies go, I think we can expect them to follow the majors. Some of them are already breaking out. Remember, the major developed currencies started trending well against the dollar first, and then emerging currencies gradually followed. I expect that intermarket cadence will continue during the next wave of dollar weakness. And it looks like it already is. Here’s the Euro and Pound resolving their coils higher against USD:

​

Both of these currencies ramped to fresh multi-year highs in April and have been consolidating in continuation patterns ever since. This action reminds me of some of the bull flags we’ve been trading in the equity market. The essence of the patterns is the same. And guess what— the vast majority have resolved higher. I don’t expect it to be any different for EUR and GBP here. They both appear to be making decisive resolutions as we speak, going out at fresh cycle highs today. If these breakouts remain valid, these currencies are on a path to retest their 2021 highs. And if that’s happening, DXY is making a fresh leg lower and confirming this massive top.

​

Of course, there is a chance these coils fail and resolve lower. In that case, look out for a counter-trend rip from DXY. But, it’s not the bet I’m making based on the information we have today. These breakouts look solid. I trust them. And I think the implications are the same as usual: strength from commodities, commodity stocks, and international equities. I think rates are also due to catch lower under this scenario, and that should bode well for interest rate-sensitive areas of the market. So it’s all about those bull flags. If they do what most of the bull flags are doing out here—look out for lower dollars… and buy the things that do best in a weak dollar environment. That’s it. That’s the currency market playbook for now. We’ve written a lot about our favorite currencies and the related international equity vehicles recently.

• Nvidia ($NVDA), the crown jewel of the bull market, closed at an all-time high today for the first time since January, gaining +4.3%.
  
• The stock decisively cleared resistance at $150 today after spending a month coiling directly below it. Donovan notes $NVDA has set the stage for an explosive rally if $150 holds.
  
• While $NVDA lagged over the past year, $MSFT assumed its role as the largest stock in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. However, with $NVDA back in uncharted waters, it's poised to reclaim the throne.
  

The Takeaway: Nvidia ($NVDA) resumed its legendary uptrend today, notching its first all-time high since January as it resolves to the upside from a multi-month consolidation phase.






jog on
duc

 

[peter2]

The Sector Power list is the chart I was referring to.



Looking for the top performers in those sectors at the top of the list is a waste of time as I've missed the best entry.

It makes more sense for me to look in the sectors that are moving up eg, XLC (communications) in this list.

It may even be worth my time looking at the charts of these sector indices regularly (weekly, fortnightly) and rank their relative strength using two MAs. Food for thought and something else to include in my week-end review process.

Getting into the sector rotation asap pays huge. I'm currently in aerospace/defence/semiconductor swing trades and they are charging ahead. I got into these purely by chance as there were heaps of similar setups in other sectors at the time that haven't gone up as much. Wanting to be a bit more selective with my sector choices.

I'm spending more time and allocating more capital to my US trading activity. Mainly for the huge capital gains that are available.
eg STX and WDC both multi billion dollar mkt caps in the SP500 gaining >120% since the April lows. Mentioned by FrankCappelleri.
Wow, I want some of that action.

 

[ducati916]

The Sector Power list is the chart I was referring to.

View attachment 202466

Looking for the top performers in those sectors at the top of the list is a waste of time as I've missed the best entry.

It makes more sense for me to look in the sectors that are moving up eg, XLC (communications) in this list.

It may even be worth my time looking at the charts of these sector indices regularly (weekly, fortnightly) and rank their relative strength using two MAs. Food for thought and something else to include in my week-end review process.

Getting into the sector rotation asap pays huge. I'm currently in aerospace/defence/semiconductor swing trades and they are charging ahead. I got into these purely by chance as there were heaps of similar setups in other sectors at the time that haven't gone up as much. Wanting to be a bit more selective with my sector choices.

I'm spending more time and allocating more capital to my US trading activity. Mainly for the huge capital gains that are available.
eg STX and WDC both multi billion dollar mkt caps in the SP500 gaining >120% since the April lows. Mentioned by FrankCappelleri.
Wow, I want some of that action.

That chart comes from JC and his crew.

What I have is:




Obviously you can then drill down further into those sectors:

So take XLI which breaks into:


Take Trucking





Which lets you focus on the strongest sub-sectors within the broad sectors.

RTX for example falls within Aerospace:




jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Oil News:

Friday, June 27th, 2025


The Israel-Iran ceasefire and the lack of subsequent retaliatory attacks has drained oil markets of the elevated geopolitical risk that saw Brent near $80 per barrel last week, only to post a $9 per barrel week-on-week drop and trade around $68 per barrel on Friday. Now that the Middle East is relatively calm, there are two main price-defining events ahead - OPEC+ with its July 06 meeting and Donald Trump with his July 09 tariff war deadline.

Shell Denies BP Takeover Talks. UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) refutedmarket speculation that it is in ‘early talks’ to take over its long-standing rival BP (NYSE:BP), issuing a statement that under UK market rules it would be barred from making any BP-relevant moves over the next six months.

US’ Most Notorious Power Plant to Restart by 2027. The Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania, offline after an expedited decommissioning prompted by the 1979 nuclear leakage incident, is set to restart in 2027 to boost the regional grid, as confirmed by operator Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG).

Trump Signals Weaker Iran Enforcement. Whilst President Trump’s rhetoric vis-à-vis Iran was quite bellicose during the 12-day war with Israel, the US President hinted that China will be allowed to continue buying Iranian oil and that the US government wants to see Iran getting back into shape.

Saudi Export Revenue Collapses on Low Prices. Saudi Arabia’s revenue from oil and refined product exports plunged to its lowest since June 2021, totalling only $16.5 billion (down 21% year-on-year), as lower oil prices risk to derail the country’s Vision 2030 strategy, estimated to cost $1.3 trillion.

Egypt Doubles Down on LNG. Egypt has been struggling to keep its economy running after Israel halted pipeline deliveries for two weeks, prompting it to maximizeLNG imports with July arrivals expected to hit an all-time high (surpassing 0.51 Mt from a year ago) after both May and June posted 0.48 Mt.

Russia Mulls Full Gasoline Export Ban. Russia’s Anti-Monopoly Service (FAS) has proposed a complete ban on gasoline exports to tackle high domestic prices, jumping to ₽65,000 per metric tonne ($830/mt) earlier this month, potentially taking off some 100,000 b/d of light distillate from the market.

Iraq Seeks Investors for First Ever LNG Terminal. Iraq is in advanced talks with US LNG developer Excelerate Energy (NYSE:EE) to build its first-ever LNG import terminal as Baghdad still struggles with power outages and seeks to cut dependence on Iranian imports, under pressure from Trump.

Brazil Offshore Auction Sees Record Interest. Brazil’s 5th Permanent Concession Offer licensing saw the country’s government rake in a record $180 million in signing bonuses after 34 of the frontier exploration blocks were allotted, with state oil giantPetrobras (NYSEBR) leading the pack with 13 awards.

Israel Restarts Its Offshore Gas Fields. Israel’s two offshore natural gas fields that supply neighbouring countries Egypt and Jordan have resumed production after the US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran, after both Chevron’s Leviathan and Energean’s Karish were shut for two weeks.

Iran Seeks to Cease Any IAEA Cooperation. Iran’s parliament approved a bill to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) after the US attacks on Fordow and Natanz, stipulating that any future inspection would need the approval of the Supreme National Security Council.

Trump Cabinet Pushes for GoA Auction. The Trump administration is proposing to hold a huge lease sale this December in the Gulf of America (formerly known as Gulf of Mexico) covering 80 million acres and comprising some 15,000 unleased blocks, whilst lowering the Biden-era royalty rates to 16.67%.

Turkey to Expand into Libya’s Offshore. Libya’s National Oil Company signed a memorandum of understanding with Turkish state oil company TPAO for geological and geophysical study of its offshore areas, less than a week after Tripoli objected to Greece’s hydrocarbon exploration to the south of Crete.

Copper Soars on Weakening Dollar. Copper prices reached a three-month high this week on the back of US dollar sliding lower and LME copper stocks now a third of what they were in January (93,075 tonnes), with cash settlement prices rising above $10,000 per metric tonne for the first time this year.



From JC;

New highs and bull flags. That’s the picture of the market right now. The Nasdaq is printing all-time highs. The S&P is knocking on the door. Semiconductors, Industrials, Communications—you name it—they’re all breaking out together. The playbook has been simple. New highs… followed by bull flags… followed by more new highs. This is what bull markets look like. And right now, we’re seeing these bullish continuation patterns everywhere. One group that we think is the next to go is Discretionary. XLY is coiled up right at its former highs from 2021. A breakout from here doesn’t just resolve this flag—it confirms a multi-year base and kicks off the next leg higher for consumer stocks.

​

We want to lean into these patterns for as long as they keep working. Same rules, same setups. New highs. Bull flags. Let’s keep it simple. We’re currently preparing a special report on homebuilders and the housing sector, with trade ideas on the best setups that could lead this market higher.

So instead of being paid in cash, you are paid in-kind.




Full:https://www.ft.com/content/f4625701-72fc-4dde-b1a2-4b230d9bc7f1




Full:https://www.theatlantic.com/technol...opy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share





Full:https://tomtunguz.com/ai-apps-saas-apps/




From JC;

• Almost all financial media is bad.
• Their job is to distract us.
• If you care about your money you'll turn off the TV.

Monitor your media diet.

Are you going to wake up on Monday morning at 6 am and put down three cheeseburgers and fries with an ice cream sundae?

No, of course not.

That would be ridiculous.

Well, waking up and turning on the noise box to watch basic cable and to drown yourself in distraction does the similar damage.

Am I reaching? Maybe.

Maybe I am being a little harsh.

Let's dig in a little.

How I Learned​

Everything I know about trading options I learned from Sean McLaughlin.

Sean and I have travelled together all around the world over many years, to India and Japan and elsewhere.

And he's taught me a lot about life beyond options.

This week, Sean wrote about how he's adjusted his media diet throughout his career

"I stopped watching financial news during the 2008 crash. The yelling, the fear, the urgency – it messed with my head, and my trades.

"Now I turn it off. Not because I don't care. But because I do.

"I trade better when I'm not triggered."

It took me longer than Sean to come to this realization.

For me to finally understand the damage that consuming basic cable news, financial or otherwise, does to investors, I had to see it myself.

Once I was behind the scenes as a guest on all the financial networks, it quickly became obvious what the problem was...

And still is.

The folks who run financial news networks – "news" networks in general – have different objectives than traders and investors.

We're only here to try to make money from the market.

Their job is literally to distract us from trying to make money.

They want our attention so they can sell ad space to sponsors pitching stuff like men's hair-loss pills and life insurance policies.

We have completely different – and conflicting – objectives.

Now, I want to make one thing clear: This doesn't make them bad people.

In fact, it's quite the opposite.

Living in New York City and doing the media circuit for so many years, my encounters were almost always amazing – smart, happy, intelligent people.

That's not the problem. That was actually the most compelling part of these experiences, the great people.

They're just playing a completely different game.

They're not managing portfolios. They don't have to answer to limited partners. They're not dealing with household assets.

They're only job is to convince you to keep coming back – and to keep consuming.

They want to make you feel like you're falling behind if you miss out, that you're not informed.

As it turns out, of course, people who consume this stuff are the most misinformed.

Counterpoint ​

Someone said to Sean, "It's not a bad signal to fade ‘Markets in Turmoil' segments."

And, yes, that is true.

If you bought stocks every time CNBC hosted a "Markets in Turmoil" special, you would have a 100% win rate, with average one-year forward returns of 40%.

Here are the stats from Charlie Bilello from Creative Planning showing all the data from 2010-22:



When the TV people are so scared they have to run a whole special about it, we want to buy with both hands.

But is that a reason to watch basic cable?

Of course not.

They announce these specials ahead of time, and you can get that information on Twitter in real time

You can still act on it without having to consume any of the content.

"But isn't using social media such as Twitter/X just as bad as watching CNBC, JC?"

Well, yes, but...

There is one important difference.

You can easily curate a valuable social media stream based on your objectives.

On basic cable they do the curating for you – based on their objectives.

We control the stream on Twitter. And Twitter is all you need.



jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Glad it’s all over? The conflagration in the Middle East, like all those that went before it, mattered chiefly to global markets if it threatened the supply of oil. Iran could, if it wanted, stop tankers from going through the Strait of Hormuz for a while. The perception that it might do so (at great cost to itself) reared after the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, and then dwindled when Iran’s limited response against a regional US air base showed that it wouldn’t go that far. This is how odds moved on the Polymarket prediction market:


There’s room for argument about exactly how much damage the US has done to the Iranian nuclear project, but what matters for markets is that Tehran’s behavior makes clear that they aren’t going to close the Strait. As it’s hard to imagine a more obvious time, it lowers the odds they’d do so in the future. Hence, the oil supply is safe; this is what matters most to markets.

Nobody thinks the long-running conflict has been resolved. Dangers very much remain. But the nuclear program is one of many geopolitical risks that have grumbled on in the background for years without affecting market valuations. Until the situation flares up again, the market can get back to ignoring Iran and its centrifuges.

The Israel-Iran ceasefire is a big political achievement for President Donald Trump. A more significant win, in economic terms, is his success in getting NATO allies to raise their defense spending. Not many would have seen that coming even a few months ago. There’s ample room to question the negotiating tactics he used, but they were effective. International markets are handing Trump 2.0 another victory. The S&P 500 is almost back to its record. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has targeted lower bond yields, cheaper oil, and a weaker dollar. The market is delivering all of them: Trump successes have led to a new idea. “Client questions recently reinforce our impression of a building narrative,” says Freya Beamish of TS Lombard. “Is the TACO [Trump Always Chickens Out] trade morphing into a reawakening of the US exceptionalism trade?” It’s questionable, however, whether American Exceptionalism — the relentless outperformance by US stocks — will resume after taking a break for the last few months. The most recent developments don’t help US outperformance. Cheaper oil is more important for European and Asia-Pacific economies than for the US, while the benefits of NATO members spending more on defense will likely flow primarily to European companies. And while the market trend has shown the US regaining ground, there’s no sign that investors are rethinking the judgment they made earlier this year that tariffs were a good reason to move elsewhere. In relative terms, the US has gained nothing since the eve of Liberation Day, April 2: Recent fund flows have helped Europe; this could continue. Societe Generale SA demonstrates that inflows to European funds actually exceeded those to the US over the last three months, while money has also gone into global funds that exclude the US. There are no flows out of the US as yet, so no particular reason to think that this trend cannot intensify. And in any case, as other markets are smaller, any investment into them will have greater proportionate impact: What hasn’t changed, at all, since Liberation Day and its subsequent reverses is the severing of the link between the dollar and its rate differentials. Normally, a currency will be aided by higher bond yields than are available elsewhere, as this will attract flows. That hasn’t happened this time. As this chart from Adarsh Sinha of Bank of America demonstrates, the relationship continues to weaken: The correlation could be restored if the Federal Reserve were to go through with cutting rates a little earlier than expected, and thus reduce rate differentials. “Earlier rate cuts by the Fed, whether accompanied by weaker data or not, would imply downside risk to our broader USD forecasts,” says Sinha. The context of cuts would matter. If the US labor market finally begins to crack, that would force the Fed to act and would weaken the dollar. Tariffs and the possibility that they raise inflation are causing the Fed to stay its hand for now — and again, if inflation does recur, that isn’t going to help the dollar. Further, the administration wants a weaker dollar. Washington is getting its way on military spending, and can probably get its way on this, too. If it were to pressure the Fed into cutting rates prematurely, that would weaken the dollar not only by lowering rate differentials, but also by harming the credibility of the central bank. Beamish suggests that the odds are stacked against the US, because “the probability that either the labor market cracks and/or the tariff effects show up in inflation” seems greater than “the probability that inflation continues to slow and the labor market holds up.” It’s best to assume that US exceptionalism will have to stay in abeyance a while longer.

LOL.


Just so wrong.





So REM's are required for cars, who cares and MISSILES. The US cares a lot.

So last week I highlighted that Israel had about 5-10days worth of missiles remaining while Iran had 5mths. China can manufacture 1000 missiles/day. The US if it gets REM's possibly 1/day

Iran sends China oil.

China ends REM's to the US. No more missiles. US ends war.

Iran is 'allowed' to supply China with oil.

China is the SUPERPOWER. The US is no longer.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Scams aided and abetted via AI

Ostin, like others of its ilk, had quite a few elements that make it the perfect scam: It appeared to make a real product. It traded a ridiculous number of shares every day. Heck, it even showed up on Yahoo Finance as among the “most popular stocks in May”...

​

When I first wrote about it, the stock was trading for around $7, ratcheting higher daily. Yesterday morning I just happened to check, and saw it had spiked above $9. I shook my head and texted a few friends who had been expecting the stock to implode, saying, “OST makes zero sense.” And then... no more than an hour later one of them texted me back, saying, “This may be the rug-pull here.” I had no idea what he was talking about, so I checked the stock and there it was – down 10%... in an instant. That led me to post on social media...

​

Little did I know, this wasn’t just the rug pull, but the foundation was crumbling beneath the whole house! It had to be no more than an hour later that the same friend texted me again, saying... “Boom! That was abrupt.”

Look Out Below...​ I looked – the stock was down 95% and by the market’s close, OST shares had plunged to (wait for it!) pennies... as in 57 pennies. As I write this today, it’s more like 32 pennies.

​

As it turns out, this appears to be straight out of the playbook of the very same China stock scam the Wall Street Journal wrote about the day after my original Ostin report appeared. It’s a scam, usually run out of Asia, that preys on victims using social media and WhatsApp groups... and as I’ve written, Ostin is not an isolated example. I then rehashed what the Journal wrote in my “Stock Scam Revealed” writeup, but with a focus on Ostin. Here’s where it gets interesting... After the stock’s initial 10% tumble yesterday, I heard from the person who first alerted me to the scam. He’s a short-seller who can sniff out a fraud – even if it’s a few continents away. As part of his research, he joined several of these WhatsApp groups... so he could see for himself how it worked.

'It's All Made Up'​ He was surprised by the stock’s drop, because the WhatsApp groups had been advising investors to wait until July 4 to sell. Or that’s what the WhatsApp texts he received said, such as this one, which suggests outright manipulation “to push the stock price to rebound above $10”...

​

They even have a name for it – the “stock price push plan”...

​

And this one – encouraging investors to send in even more money since “the stock price is only 5 trading days away from our final target of $20-$25.”

​

Reading some of the phrases riddled throughout these posts, I responded to my friend... “Rebound channel.” “Stock price push channel.” “Risk control team” - all made up! And then there was this additional text, with one final plea for investors “to cherish the current opportunity of low-price transactions, adjust their investment portfolios or raise more funds to purchase more OST, which can allow everyone to double their returns within 6 trading days.”

​

It gets even worse...

Aided By AI...​ I heard from several people from around the world who say they lost considerable amounts of money... some claiming to have lost it all. The lure is usually fake AI-created ads on social media using high-profile Wall Street personalities to create the illusion of credibility... like this one used for the Ostin scam featuring Goldman Sachs chief strategist David Kostin...

​

In this one, Kostin’s AI-created message says, “If you’re interested in missing out on investment opportunities, and want to learn more about quality stocks, you’re welcome to join my WhatsApp group.” One Ostin investor who claims to have lost $35,000 said he initially made some money on a few stocks – just enough to convince him to invest even more. He showed me texts that claimed that the person he was texting with worked with a firm that is regulated by the SEC and FINRA – claiming what appears to be a legitimate financial planning firm in Manhattan Beach, CA. In fact, the group the Ostin investor joined uses the name and photo of a principal of that firm as the “site administrator,” with texts also coming from another principal of the firm.

Fake, Fake, Fake​ The scamsters even provided contact information, with the second principal's photo directly from the legit website – except when you look closely, the phone number is different from the phone number on the person’s contact real page. (I’m intentionally not using the firm’s name here because I haven’t reached out to them, and I suspect they have no idea they were being used as a ruse.) When the group member pushed on whether the firm behind the stock had a website – and whether he could meet someone in person, they sent him the URL that appeared to go to the website of the firm the two principals worked at. Except, the scamsters added an “s” to the firm’s name in the URL – and it sent him to a fake replica of the real one...

Here's the Kicker...​ The minute the stock collapsed, “the whole group disappeared,” said my friend who had joined one.” But not to worry, he added, because “they are already setting up their next group.” He immediately got a text for this...

​

And this...

​

There truly is a scam born every minute and now, in this golden age of grift, they’re flourishing.

Postscript...​ Ostin today issued a press release saying that it does “not have any undisclosed material matters, nor is it aware of the specific reasons for the abnormal stock price fluctuations on June 26. However, we must caution investors and all other persons to rely solely on statements and filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued by the Company itself or its authorized representatives. The Company does not intend to make further statements regarding this matter.” To which I say two things: What happened to their stock was hardly what I’d call “abnormal stock fluctuations.” And...funny, they didn’t say anything when the stock was skyrocketing. Oh, and the scamsters? They put a comment up on WhatsApp blaming the stock’s decline on short-sellers, which if it wasn’t so absurd would be laughable. The beat goes on...

From Strazza;

If you see a bull flag… Buy it. It’s what we’ve been telling our clients, and it’s been our mantra internally. This has been the top pattern to profit from lately. Period. It’s simple, reliable, and works best in bullish environments like this one. I’ve been putting more and more money behind these patterns over the past few weeks. Not only do they keep resolving higher, but the reaction legs have been fierce— some going flat-out vertical. Here are two recent examples to illustrate how I trade this formation. First up: Micron Technologies $MU. After a strong leg higher, $MU formed a textbook bull flag. I bought the $MU 7/18 $120 calls right in the middle of that range, betting on the next leg up.

​

The stock took out its VWAP and ripped higher almost immediately. I followed my process, sold half into strength, and locked in the remaining gains this week. On the same day as $MU, I also purchased some Citigroup $C 7/18 $ 82.50 calls for $1.00. It was a similar setup with a similar outcome. Citigroup is riding an impressive reaction rally as we speak.

​

With the big bank running into resistance at its old highs, I’ve taken just about all my position off. The calls are trading for around 4x what I paid. But this kind of setup isn’t just showing up in semiconductor stocks and banks… we’re seeing these coils everywhere across different areas of the market And we want to treat them all the same. Semis. Banks. Industrials. Cryptos. It doesn’t matter. We want to keep buying these bull flags and anticipating upside resolutions. I’m going to do it as long as the market continues to pay me for it. Today, I redeployed some of those bull flag profits into fresh coils. They haven’t resolved yet, but our volatility squeeze indicator says they are ready. I went with some index plays because the charts were just too good to pass on, and I like the broad exposure they offer. We’re going to buy some more calls in the coming days, in individual names.

Imagine an eccentric (and bored) tycoon offering you $10 million to play Russian roulette… Five of the six histories would lead to enrichment; one would lead to a statistic… The problem is that only one of the histories is observed in reality.
— Nassim Taleb, Fooled by Randomness

We are a story-driven species. From cave walls to balance sheets, we look for narratives that explain the world and our place in it. And nowhere is this tendency more dangerous than when we only learn from the winners. When we allow survival alone to imply superiority. When the fact that someone or something made it through becomes enough proof that they knew what they were doing.


This is the essence of survivorship bias, and in the world of investing, it distorts almost everything.

Consider the stock market, which is full of visible winners. We often hear stories of stocks that went 20x, fund managers who outperformed for a decade, companies that pivoted into success, and investors who became celebrities.

These survivors are everywhere. They dominate the headlines and shape our mental models of what success looks like.

But what about the others? The ones who didn’t make it? The companies that failed while no one noticed? The investors who blew up and left the game? They’re barely mentioned, rarely studied, and almost never remembered. And so, the narrative we inherit is hopelessly incomplete.

That’s how the illusion begins. We think we’re learning how the game is played, but we’re only learning from those still at the table. It’s like observing only the planes that returned from battle, and deciding where to reinforce the armour, without thinking about the ones that never came back (read more on this story).

Now, the problem isn’t just that we miss some data. It’s that the very nature of the data we do see is skewed. The lesson is baked into a biased sample, and yet we treat it as universal.

Take stock indices, for example. The Sensex and Nifty have risen beautifully over decades. Charts show a neat upward slope that seems to confirm the timeless wisdom: stay invested, and you’ll win. But hidden beneath that slope is a continuous yet quiet rotation. The companies that underperform are removed. The failures are dropped. Only the stronger firms remain.


So, what looks like the resilience of the market is partly a survivor effect. The index is constantly pruned to remove the weak. Most investors never see this. They think the index is a static entity, forgetting that the reason it looks so strong is because it has been carefully rebalanced to ensure it does.

It’s not a lie, but it’s not the whole truth either. It’s a curated version of reality, which is designed for survivorship.

Now apply that same lens to mutual funds. Every year, we see ads highlighting top performers over 5- or 10-year periods. Investors chase these funds, believing they’ve found consistent outperformance. But most people never ask how many funds even survived those 10 years. Many didn’t.

The underperformers were shut down, merged away, or quietly buried under new scheme names. Their poor returns don’t make it into the “top fund” ads. Which means the average performance of surviving funds is often inflated, because the worst results were deleted from the data set.

So, when we look back at long-term fund returns without adjusting for those that disappeared, we’re not seeing how fund managers truly performed across the board. We’re seeing how the winners performed and mistaking it for the average.

And then there’s the most seductive arena of all: success stories. Business books, biographies, and podcast interviews are all proudly built on the same question: “How did you do it?”

But that question, when asked only of survivors, creates a dangerous narrative. It turns randomness into wisdom and luck into method.

A founder who succeeded against all odds is praised for her vision, her grit, and her intuition. But what about the 100 others who had the same qualities and failed? What about the timing, the macro conditions, the investor interest, the random tailwinds that no one could have planned?

None of that gets included in the final story. And so we start to think: this is how success works. This is the roadmap. Just do what she did.

In investing, we see this with concentrated portfolios. Someone puts 40% of their wealth in a single stock, and it works. Suddenly, it’s a genius move. People quote Charlie Munger’s love for “few bets, big bets, infrequent bets.” What they don’t quote are the countless investors who did the same thing and lost everything. Because they’re gone. Because their voices aren’t around.

Survivorship bias also affects how we view risk. When risky behaviour pays off, it’s reframed as boldness or foresight. But when it doesn’t, there’s no reframing…just silence.

The lesson that reaches the public, though, is clear: take bold bets. It worked for him, it could work for you. But that’s the equivalent of watching five Russian roulette winners and deciding the game must be safe.

As Taleb says, it’s not just faulty logic but a fatal logic. The danger isn’t always visible. And that’s what makes it so appealing.

Even the gurus we learn from, like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch are often outliers. They had the skill, yes. But also timing, temperament, and a unique mix of circumstances. When they explain their principles, it’s tempting to think those principles are universally repeatable. But what we don’t see are the thousands who tried similar approaches and didn’t beat the market.

The base rate gets ignored. The framework gets deified. And we forget that sometimes, even the right decisions lead to the wrong results. Because markets aren’t fair judges of effort. They’re chaotic and slow to reward insight.

Survivorship bias also has a cruel psychological effect. It makes failure feel personal. When everyone you follow seems to be doing well, when the articles are full of people making crores, and when every podcast features someone who spotted a multi-bagger early, it’s easy to feel like you’re behind. That you missed the boat and you’re not as smart.

But the truth is, you’re not seeing “everyone.” You’re seeing only those who are still in the game. The ones who stayed quiet after their bad decisions or investments aren’t in the room. The ones who made the same bets as the winners, but at the wrong time or with the wrong stock, aren’t being interviewed. And so we compare ourselves not to the market, but to the most visible and successful examples within it.

It’s not a fair comparison. But our minds don’t know that.

So, the question now is: how do we protect ourselves from this distortion?

First, learn to ask better questions. Not “What worked?” but “What else was tried that didn’t?” Not “How did this person succeed?” but “How many tried this path and failed?”

Second, remind yourself that most of what you see is filtered. Most stories are success stories because those are the ones that get told. Failure is often just as instructive, sometimes more so, but it rarely gets a voice.

Third, ground yourself in base rates. If only 5% of microcaps become smallcaps or midcaps, then every story of that happening needs to be understood in that context. You can still bet on microcaps, but bet with awareness, not illusion.

And finally, the most important of it all, stay humble. Success is fragile. And even the survivors, if they’re honest, will admit that they were often just one decision, or one crisis, away from not making it.

All in all, survivorship bias doesn’t just skew how we think about investing. It skews how we think about effort, risk, process, and even identity. It makes us think we know more than we do, simply because we’ve only seen the stories that ended well. But the real lessons often lie in what we’ll never see, of the businesses that almost made it or the people who did everything right and still lost.

Those stories are gone. But the silence they left behind should teach us something too.

• The S&P 500 ($SPX) achieved its first all-time high since February on Friday, gaining +3.4% this week.
  
• Although it fell more than -21% on an intraday basis, $SPX narrowly avoided a media-defined bear market in April, reaching a closing drawdown of -18.9%. After bouncing roughly +24% in less than three months, a V-shaped recovery is officially in the books.
  
• The table shows the forward returns after reaching 52-week highs within three months of an -18% drawdown. Performance was mixed over the next month, but $SPX was consistently higher three months later, with an average gain of +6.8%.
  

The Takeaway: The S&P 500 achieved its first all-time high since February today, completing a V-shaped recovery from bear market territory. After similar rebounds, the index was consistently higher over the next 3-12 months.


These are the 6 risk indicators I track for confirmation or divergence of the move in the S&P 500 — and right now, four are confirming the rally while two remain neutral, as the index hovers just 0.05% below its record high.
Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The top row tracks equity leadership: High Beta vs. Low Volatility, Cyclicals vs. Defensives, and Discretionary vs. Staples.
• The bottom row captures macro and internal confirmation: the Inverted US Dollar, the Advance-Decline Line, and High-Yield vs. Treasury Bonds.

The Takeaway: These 6 charts track the tug-of-war between offense and defense. Together, they show where money is flowing — and whether this rally is built on broad support or narrow leadership.
4 out of 6 signals are in clear confirmation mode, lending strong support to the S&P 500’s climb.
High Beta stocks and Cyclicals are leading the charge — a textbook sign of risk-on behavior.
Market breadth is strong, with the Advance-Decline Line leading the way as price flirts with record highs.
Even the US Dollar, inverted here, is tilting the right way — falling as stocks rise.
Yet two gauges haven’t fired.
Credit markets aren’t confirming just yet, with High Yield Bonds still lagging Treasuries.
And the Discretionary vs Staples ratio remains neutral, hinting that consumer risk appetite isn’t all-in just yet.
Risk appetite is widening, but it isn’t unanimous.
The current move higher in the S&P 500 stands on solid ground
But without confirmation from credit and discretionary leadership, it’s not a full green light.
So, do the two holdouts fall in line, or does the index stall at its prior peak?







jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

From JC;

• There's always a squeeze happening somewhere.
• Explosive moves are about humans being human.
• These are the kinds of opportunities we embrace.

Every big move you see in the market is some type of squeeze.

When a stock is up 10%, 20%, or even more in a short period of time – and it happens many times – someone is blowing up.

It's some hedge fund somewhere who went in too big and is being forced to liquidate their position.

These unwinds happen every single day.

Most of the time it goes unnoticed.

Sometimes they make a movie about it...

Dumb Money​

Back in 2021 a group of hedge funds were betting aggressively on the demise of a small video game store company called GameStop (GME).



These short sellers even included some money being managed for Steve Cohen, the owner of the New York Mets.

As the stock price started to rise, these funds started to lose money – because, of course, they were betting on falling prices.

The thing about short selling is that the risk is unlimited.

A stock can only go to zero if you own it. But if you're short, technically it can rise to infinity and beyond.

That's why shorts are forced to liquidate their holdings, either on their own or at the direction of their broker's margin clerk.

GME is a famous example of this phenomenon because there were popular hedge funds involved on the wrong side of a major move.

And you know how much journalists like writing about rich guys losing.

It's weird, I know, but they love that sort of thing.

In fact, they made a movie about it, "Dumb Money."

That's partly because the guy leading the charge from the long side has self-applied the online handle "Roaring Kitty."

I kid you not.

Check out the movie.

And, of course, there are plenty of articles and Youtube videos about this squeeze.

From Hollywood to Youtube​

Short squeezes are not limited to stocks.

We see this sort of thing in options, forex, and commodities too.

In November 2018, a trader named James Cordier lost $150 million of client assets when he got squeezed out of a Natural Gas short position.

Natural Gas rallied 18% in a week, instantly wiping out the assets of almost 300 of his clients, including friends and family.



Cordier infamously published a Youtube video shortly thereafter, apologizing for the losses through his tears.

This video has been sent around to traders all over the world, not for humor, but as a lesson.

Manage risk responsibly, whether you're long or short... but especially if you're short.

Your Friends Too​

Sometimes we know who's getting blown up, sometimes we don't.

In fact, a few times, I've actually literally known the guy getting squeezed.

Remember the historic 30% ripper in the Swiss franc (CHF) back in January 2015?

I do.

It wasn't because Switzerland famously removed the cap on its currency against the euro.

And it wasn't because they made a movie about it.

I remember it so well because my friend was short CHF.

He was the one blowing up.



I knew the guy, or at least one of the guys, who was caught on the wrong side of this trade.

It was January. Talk about the new year getting off to a rough start.

This particular gentleman had always been a reckless trader, in my observations from him.

But even he didn't deserve this one!

It's like I said, though, squeezes like this happen all the time.

I've been fortunate to have been on the right side of many of them over the years.

I'm not a "short seller," per se, but I have and will short stocks when a really compelling setup develops.

I'm much more interested in finding opportunities where short sellers are vulnerable, though.

Humans act irrationally whenever money is involved. And short sellers, in my experience, tend to think they're smarter than everyone else.

It makes it harder for these types of people to admit they're wrong.

This is how short squeezes are born.

And we can make a lot of money on these moves in a short period of time.

Don't be afraid of the short squeeze.

Embrace it.

• Risk free" does not mean what you think it means.
• The biggest risk is sitting on the sidelines.
• This bull market has a lot of room to run.

Not too long ago people were telling me how easy it was to get 4% to 5% "risk free" investing in U.S. government bonds.

"But JC, why would I buy stocks when I can just get my guaranteed 4% and not take any risk."

I heard this a lot in 2022, 2023.

What could go wrong?

As it turns out, everything.

"Risk Free" Was the Biggest Risk​

When things seem too good to be true, it's because they probably are.

Had you invested in those government bonds earning 4% or so, you would have missed out on historic gains for U.S. Stocks.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq didn't officially bottom until the fourth quarter of 2022.

But the majority of stocks had been heading higher since the summer of that year.

The Nasdaq quickly doubled from those levels.

Stocks – household names – were going up hundreds of percent, even thousands.

Yesterday, we talked about Carvana (CVNA) and its 10,000% rally.

The biggest risk was in not taking any risk.

More Than $7 Trillion in Money Market Funds​

The Investment Company Institute publishes the total dollar amount invested in Money Market Funds, by both retail and institutional investors.

Here's a snippet from last week's report:



Institutional investors have a near record high in Money Market Funds, now more than $4.1 trillion.

Retail investors are quickly approaching new record highs of close to $3 trillion.

All of this money could have been in stocks.

They're choosing to miss out on those gains.

Now, granted, I'm sure these investors have their reasons for not wanting to take any risk.

But let's be serious.

We know a large percentage of that money could have been put to work.

But emotional decision making prevented these folks from moving.

We talked about scared investors fleeing to cash at the exact wrong times earlier this spring.

There is huge risk in sitting on the sidelines during one of the most historic bull market runs in American history.

Here are the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq100, two of the most important stock market gauges on the planet, hitting new all-time highs:



The risk all along was believing it when they tried to tell you government bonds are "risk free."

How High Can We Go?​

This chart comes from our Australia-based Quantitative Analyst Grant Hawkridge.

Grant is plotting both the duration and the amplitude of all the bull markets since the 1950s.

In other words, we're looking at how long these bull markets have lasted, on average, as well as the average percentage change:



The horizontal red dashed line represents average trading days for all the bull markets.

The red dot representing the current one is still well below average.

The blue horizontal dashed line represents the average percentage change for all the bull markets.

And the blue bar showing the current one is still well below average.

If the bull market ended today, this one would go down as both below average in returns and well as below average in duration.

Is that the bet you're willing to make?

Do you want to join in on all those investors who are getting "risk free" 4% while the Nasdaq is doubling in their face?

Everybody's wrong.

And we love to see it.

From irrational decision making comes opportunity for the rest of us.

You're seeing it in real time.

Stay sharp,

• Here's how a dumb idea turned into a 10,000% trade.
• Everybody agreed, and everybody was wrong.
• Spot the vulnerability, exploit it for huge profit.

One of the most historic short squeezes I've ever seen in my 22-year career actually came this cycle.

Short-sellers were running rampant throughout 2022.

The majority of stocks peaked in 2021, and the selling continued throughout the first half of the following year.

But the short-sellers overstayed their welcome.

You see, market breadth started to improve after June 2022, as the major indexes continued to make new lows.

In other words, by October 2022, with the S&P 500 hitting new lows, fewer and fewer stocks were still going down.

Many were already participating in the new bull market.

Here's the thing: Economists were factoring in a "guaranteed" recession.

And, heading into 2023, the consensus among analysts was that the S&P 500 would actually decline over the coming year.

For the first time this century, Wall Street was predicting the market would fall.

Of course, not only did the market NOT fall.

The S&P 500 went on to post back to back years of 20%-plus returns and the Nasdaq100 nearly doubled in value.

Now, let's talk about stock selection in this kind of environment.

You see, short-sellers didn't cover their shorts during the back half of 2022, as the market was already starting to head higher.

They did the opposite. They added to their short positions – and they made themselves even more vulnerable.

One of those names was Carvana (CVNA), a company that sells cars through giant vending machines.

Everyone agreed this was a dumb idea.

And 40% of the float was short CVNA, just as the new bull market was getting going.



When you combine a new bull market with some of the highest short interest in the market, this is what you get.

Over the ensuing 30 months CVNA has gone up 100X.

That's about a 10,000% return off the lows near the end of 2022.

When people ask me about short squeezes, how do I not bring up this example?

Selling cars through giant vending machines is a dumb idea.

Everybody agrees it's dumb – massive short interest.

And, of course, everybody's wrong.

Spot the vulnerability, take advantage of the situation.

There will be more of these.

The ideas will be just as dumb, maybe even dumber.

And the short-sellers will be all over it.

That's where we come in – to bet that they're wrong.

That's where we make money.

Keep an eye out for more of these short squeezes.

Challenge the Consensus. Share Your Perspective.​

Markets thrive on opposing views. If you've got a thesis, a chart, or an insight others might be overlooking, send it our way. We may feature it in Everybody's Wrong.
Please note: We can't respond to personal investing questions, but we may feature your topic in a future issue.

This Week in Everybody's Wrong​

On Monday, we talked about how hard it is to measure market sentiment.

A lot of people try to do it – many media companies use their indicators to attract as many eyeballs as possible.

Here's why your new sentiment indicator is probably useless.

On Tuesday, we took a deeper look at how people feel about the stock market right now.

They've rarely been this pessimistic, and short interest is at historic levels.

Here's how those of us who own stocks and who embrace this bull market benefit from short-sellers and what they do.

On Wednesday, we reviewed my friend Barry Ritholtz's new book, "How Not to Invest."

Barry's first book, about the Global Financial Crisis, is a must-read, and this one is too.

Here's why everything everybody thinks they know about valuation is wrong.

On Thursday, we took a trip to the Great White North to explore one of my favorite places in the world.

It also happens to be a great place to invest right now.

Here's why I'm buying Canada.

On Friday, we talked about our media diet.

Are you going to wake up Monday morning at 6 am and put down three cheeseburgers and fries with an ice cream sundae?

Here's what we must do if we care about our money and we would like to see it grow for us.

On Saturday, we went to the movies and we got to know more about your friendly neighborhood short squeeze.

It's about humans being human, and there's always an explosive move happening somewhere.

Here's why we embrace short squeezes.

Have a great Sunday.

I'll see you Monday morning...




Full:https://www.marketwatch.com/story/r...on-to-become-a-new-wall-street-power-6a73bf9b

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​ Checking in on Restoration Hardware... It’s been awhile since I’ve written anything on RH ($RH,) which will always be Restoration Hardware – or RSTO, its original stock symbol – to me. The stock is down around 40% since I first red-flagged it in October in my report headlined, “Irrational Extrapolation.” Of course, first it rose 40% to a new 52-week high, before having tumbled nearly 60% from those heights. In other words, classic RH-style volatility... to be expected, especially in this market.

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​ I hadn’t taken a close look lately – at least not until I received the latest from my pal Rob Wilson at Tiburon Research, who eats, breathes, sleeps retail and consumer stocks. And as a former treasurer of RH going WAY back, it’s one he has watched... forever. In his latest RH writeup, Rob wonders if we’re seeing a jump-the-shark moment for the company, which positions itself as a “luxury lifestyle brand.” He’s referring to the company’s announcement on its recent earnings call that it was permanently increasing its member discount to 30% from 25%. In announcing the move, Rob pointed out, CEO Gary Friedman said, “We’ve been thinking of taking membership from 25% to 30%, I don’t know, for five years. It’s not a new idea for us. It’s a long-term strategic move… if we’re going to do something like this, we might as well do it now… why not take market share now.” Except, if they’ve been thinking about it for years, the obvious question... Why now? Could it be that high-margin membership revenues from the $200 annual membership fee tumbled 42% between the end of FY2021 and FY2024? Who knows. The last I looked, higher discounts are not usually done from a position of strength. And what’s good today to goose membership sales, may not be good for the gander tomorrow. I guess the good news – they didn’t offer any coupons.

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​ Along the same lines... Rob noted that Ollie’s Bargain Outlet ($OLLI) did something similar by adding a second Ollie’s Army Night to its lineup. This is a special deep-discount annual event, usually in December. But they’re adding one in June. In announcing the move, its new CEO said, “It’s something we’ve actually been talking about for years…” If for years... Why now? Well, maybe the answer is no more complicated than the chart below of comp-store sales...

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​ Fun with numbers... A standing joke for folks in my sphere is that adjusted or non-GAAP earnings these days aren’t merely adjusted, but double- and triple-adjusted. I’ve been writing about this for decades, including this article in 2000 in Fortune Magazine headlined, “Alphabet Dupe...” Back then there was no double- and triple-adjusted, instead just plain ole EBITDA as the alternative of choice. The only thing that has happened is that people care less about it than they did back then, even though it’s more widespread than ever. That’s why I loved this Barron’s report by Andy Serwer, headlined, “Companies Keep Issuing ‘Stupid’ Earnings for One Simple Reason: It Makes Them Look Better.” Or as Andy wrote, “For fiscal 2024, some 351 companies in the S&P 500 index, or 71%, reported either non-GAAP net income or non-GAAP earnings per share.” And it was done for the express purpose of making them look better because, as the author of this study on the topic said, they do it because “GAAP makes us look worse.” But I think accounting expert Jack Ciesielsky of R.G. Associates put it best, when he said...

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​ I think there are a lot of investors that want to be misled. They’re going to throw money at anything that puts up better numbers than last year on any basis, whether it makes economic sense or not. And these investors set prices. Companies feed this stupid hunger. As long as the SEC lets them do this kind of reporting within the safe harbors, the frenzy continues.

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It was a busy weekend for the U.S. Senate, which narrowly advancedsignature tax and spending legislation.

• The people most worried about the risks from U.S. fiscal deficits do not like what Republican senators came up with.

The big picture: The Senate version widens the budget deficit over the coming decade by half a trillion dollars more than the version of the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act that passed the House.

• In a four-way tug-of-war among different Republican policy goals — pro-growth tax relief, populist goodies, spending cuts, and deficit concerns — the Senate compromise neglected the last in favor of the other three.
• Deficit hawks are also worried that Republicans have set a new precedent that will allow future Congresses more freedom to blow out the deficit on narrow, party-line votes — by ignoring the reduced revenue from extending current tax policy in tabulating the bill's deficit impacts.

By the numbers: The Congressional Budget Office yesterday projected the Senate version will reduce federal revenues by $4.5 trillion over the next decade, while reducing spending by $1.2 trillion.

• That makes for a net deficit widening of $3.3 trillion, compared to $2.8 trillion in the House version.
• The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the legislation would also result in higher borrowing costs for the federal government, adding another $690 billion to the cost.
• Republicans argue that the proper comparison is not to current law, under which Trump's 2017 tax cuts are set to expire this year, but to current policy, math that makes the legislation deficit-reducing.

Zoom in: On a range of hard-fought policy compromises, Republican senators found agreement by sweating the deficit less.

• For example, the Senate kept the House's $40,000 cap on state and local tax deductibility (up from a current $10,000). It also protected workarounds that allow some taxpayers to avoid the cap (the House sought to limit them).

What they're saying: "The House bill starting point was reckless to begin with," CRFB president Maya MacGuineas tells Axios. "The Senate is on the verge of passing something they made worse at almost every turn with more borrowing and more egregious gimmicks."

• "Many provisions in this bill are not even 'pro-growth' but only serve as temporary political goodies that will add to the economic ball and chain of debt that will be a drag on our economic vitality for generations to come," Carolyn Bourdeaux, executive director of the deficit-reduction group Concord Action, said in a statement.

State of play: MacGuineas argues that Senate Republicans' procedural step to treat the extension of 2017 tax cuts as costless sets a bad precedent for future fiscal policy.

• We should "expect to see the same accounting scam when Democrats want to extend spending increases and pretend they are free," she says.

Yes, but: There is precious little sign of bond market vigilantes fretting over the deficit outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield is down slightly this morning, and long-term yields are well below their levels this spring, when trade war fears were at their height.

• And business groups are rallying behind the legislation, arguing it is crucial for economic growth.
• "This critical legislation would protect and enhance the transformative economic benefits that President Trump's historic 2017 tax reform delivered for American businesses, workers and families," Business Roundtable president Kristen Silverberg said in a statement.

Liberation Day can be forgotten. Coronation Day — Feb. 19, when the White House released an image of President Donald Trump wearing a crown, and the S&P 500 set a high for the year before beginning its descent — is also firmly in the past. As the US begins Independence Day week, the index is back at an all-time high.

There are many reasons behind this, but plainly it’s an America First stock market record. The benchmark is above its Feb. 19 level when denominated in dollars, but not when valued in any other major currency. This high owes much to the dollar’s depreciation:


The rest of the world’s stocks have beaten the US by about 10 percentage points since then. In dollars, that means a nice gain:


The new all-time high doesn’t, then, challenge the prevailing narrative that it’s best to take money out of the US and reallocate elsewhere. The hugely significant decision to remove the Section 899 “retaliation tax” clause from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act currently before Congress will be a major relief for asset allocators on this basis, but leaves much of the logic for switching out of the US market intact.

This rebound has little to do with the giant tech platform groups that dominate the S&P. Since the previous high, Bloomberg’s Magnificent Seven index dipped much further during the alarm over the Liberation Day tariffs, but its performance is now bang in line with an index of the other 493 largest stocks:


This rebound took Wall Street by surprise. According to the regular average of strategists’ official year-end forecasts carried out by my Bloomberg colleague Lu Wang, they have just started to raise their estimates after slashing them during the trade furor. This stokes optimistic momentum, as they’re now engaged in upping their forecasts again.


The selloff was driven primarily by politics — growing realization that Trump 2.0 was serious about tariffs, followed by outright horror after the extreme levies announced on April 2, Liberation Day. The 90-day pause that triggered the rebound ends next week. It’s unclear what the administration will do then, but Canada’s concession to withdraw a digital sales tax to restart trade talks suggests nothing can be taken as a foregone conclusion.

Thus the rebound reflects the belief that a) the big Liberation Day tariffs will quietly go away for the most part, and b) the levies already in place won’t hurt the economy or company bottom lines too much. After a good few weeks for the administration, the hope is that Trump will desist from market-unfriendly ideas (tariffs and a clampdown on legal migration), while going ahead full-bore on tax cuts and deregulation.

The faith that margins will be proof against tariffs (which, after all, are paid by importing companies) and against other pressures is perhaps the greatest reason for concern. The S&P 500 is back trading at more than three times sales, close to a record:


Sales multiples can widen like this because profit margins have boomed since the pandemic. If companies keep a higher proportion of their revenues as profit, then it makes sense for the revenue multiple to increase. But, as I outlined over the weekend, there are ample reasons to think that Trump 2.0 policies won’t be kind to margins. This looks like an extremely exposed position that is impossible to call cheap.

It’s also more or less impossible to say that stocks are decent value compared to bonds. This rally, combined with sticky Treasury yields as the Federal Reserve resists cutting rates, has brought the earnings yield on the S&P (the inverse of the price/earnings multiple) below the 10-year Treasury yield. Buy now and you are receiving no compensation for the extra risk of stocks compared to bonds:


This points to another key explanation for the rally: The belief that rates and longer-term yields will soon fall. That’s in part because of the increasing pressure on the Fed, and the likelihood that it will soon be under the charge of someone more dovish. Any signal that the Fed’s independence is in question would do further damage to the dollar, but that would not be a problem for domestic investors in US equities.

There’s also a prevalent belief that the Fed should cut rates. That would follow from a belief that tariffs’ impact on inflation is exaggerated (which we’ll return to, and will be tested by the forthcoming employment data) and also from concern over the housing market, which is showing serious signs of cracking (see below).

There are always upside risks with the stock market to go with the downside, and there are plenty of them (as Jonathan Levin points out). This all-time high still looks premature.





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