June 2025 DDD

[ducati916]

Full:https://www.businessinsider.com/dimon-us-has-serious-issues-2016-4

Look at the date.

7 April 20216.



Full:https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...S&cvid=7097418f7669419abfd525bad14e411d&ei=10


He wasn't alone in 2016



Full:https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016...tainable-situation-i-have-seen-ever-my-career





Full:https://www.foxbusiness.com/features/greenspan-western-world-headed-for-a-state-of-disaster




Full:https://www.irishtimes.com/business...re-be-another-huge-financial-crisis-1.2668834


So Musk is hardly the first to notice the issues.




Which really goes to the Trump and Powell stoush:




At some point pretty soon, stocks either crash due to deflationary pressures or take off with inflationary tail winds.





$MOVE is indicating lots of liquidity in the Treasury market.




Yet yields are near the highs.

You would expect the USD to be far stronger.

But the bond market uncertainty highlighted by Dimon (weaker USD no longer driving lower 10y UST yields and stronger JPY no longer driving lower 10y JGB yields), combined with rapidly rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty in the very near term should be raising risk aversion positioning.


Clearly the market, check out the previous post, is BANKING on the Fed. lowering the FFR going forward. This is why we are near the highs.


Yet:



No rate cuts are expected at the next meeting.

The market is caught in cognitive dissonance.


From Strazza:

This week was all about the bull flags. Bonds dug in where they needed to recently. International equities keep grinding higher with broadening participation. And then we have the US indexes, which have been sideways, in high and tight fashion, since mid-May. That changed this week… The bulls got what they needed as a long list of these coils resolved higher. We’ve been particularly interested in speculative growth, and ARKK is a great example of this bull flag theme, so let’s go there:

​

This is the same pattern we are seeing all over right now. A big time advance off the April lows into a 3-4 week continuation pattern. And if there’s one thing we know about continuation patterns it is that their resolution should mark the continuance of the preceding price trend. Well, that direction is up. And that’s exactly the direction these flags are picking this week. So the information from the market is quite simple: We’re going higher. Next week should be a follow-through week. I think the odds of pattern failure are quite low at this point. These flags had a chance to fail this week, and the bears did try. But the market powered through that bit of indecision, and by the close Friday, the evidence was clear. This isn’t about ARK or speculative growth. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000… they all resolved similar coils. Sectors like industrials, technology, and communications… even materials! Did the same. This pattern is breaking out higher all across US equities. Don’t fight it. Let’s keep riding this wave. More growth stocks. More offense. More exposure to risk. Sprinkle in some commodities. Some international. It’s all working. We want to keep pressing the gas on this V-shape recovery. Look for the market to have a big week next week as these bull flags confirm and set off reaction rallies. I like the way we are sitting with our speculative growth and commodities positions right now. Using options allows us to participate in a wide variety of themes with a low capital cost. Due to the recent momentum, this is the highest degree of free-ride exposure we’ve had since last summer. These are simply positions where we’ve already realized enough profits to break even in the trade, regardless of what happens next.

jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

now there is a view out on the interweb , that Japan has been the testing ground for monetary policy since the ' Asian Crisis ' and Japan is about 20 years in front of the major ( Western ) economies in where we are going .

now i see where Japan is , with the BoJ being a significant holder of all the major Japanese corporations , via their large holdings in Japanese-focused ETFs , a delicate balance between bonds and trade balance and the local currency , AND an aging,shrinking population ( and workforce )

so can the global economy support another six Japans ?

i suspect not , but watch for Central Banks starting to vacuum up locally-focused ETFs ( mostly index-style ETFs as a hint )

this would help inspire a 'melt-up ' ( if we get one ) and a hyper-inflationary spiral ( which might happen anyway )

and eventually there will be a crash whether a straight evaporation of confidence or an inflationary spiral and THEN an implosion

when the frontmen for some of the largest fund managers in the world talk unsustainable you can bet they are building short positions to ride this baby down

 

[qldfrog]

but , but , but if we let AI run rampant ... what are we going to do with all those excess politicians and health & safety officers ?

just asking

with AI arrival as an overlord, the politicians and HR/H&S departments will actually be the very last to close;-)

 

[qldfrog]

View attachment 201086

Full:https://slate.com/technology/2025/06/crypto-news-wrench-attacks-nyc-kidnapping-crime-rise.html

View attachment 201087View attachment 201088

The May jobs report looks fine on the surface, but underneath there are signs of weakening in the labor market. Why it matters: The good news is that employers kept hiring at a healthy rate in May. But a few oddities in the report signal less momentum in the job market. What they're saying: "There are now clear trends in the data, not just vague signs, that even if the train is chugging forward, more and more people are getting left behind at the station," Cory Stahle, an economist at job search site Indeed, wrote in a note. "This isn't a bad report, per se, but there are clear signs of erosion just below the surface that may not be apparent just by looking only at the headline numbers," Stahle said. By the numbers: Payroll employment rose by 139,000 in May, roughly in line with what forecasters had anticipated. But the Labor Department revised down job gains in March and April by a combined 95,000 jobs. Job growth has averaged 124,000 a month in 2025, a downshift from 168,000 in 2024. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate was steady at 4.2% — but that masked a steep drop in the number of Americans in the labor force. The share of adults who were employed fell 0.3 percentage points to 59.7%, the lowest in more than three years. It was due to a whopping 625,000 fewer people in the labor force — neither working nor looking for work. The intrigue: The bulk of job creation continued to be concentrated in what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called "government-adjacent" fields, including health care. That sector added 62,000 jobs last month, above the average monthly gain of 44,000 jobs over the prior 12 months. "The month's modest job gains were concentrated in non-cyclical sectors like healthcare," Comerica chief economist Bill Adams wrote in a note. "Job gains in other cyclical private industries were anemic, reflecting the drag from policy uncertainty." Of note: The federal government sector, which has been hit by DOGE-related layoffs, lost 22,000 jobs in May alone. It has shed 55,000 workers since January. (Local government employment rose by 21,000.) State of play: The reported size of the labor force can be volatile month-to-month just due to sampling error, but the drop in May was unusually large. It may have fallen because of potential workers becoming discouraged about job prospects, or it could be attributable to immigration cuts reducing the supply of labor, notes Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic.

The new numbers are the worst of all worlds for those hoping for Fed interest rate cuts — including the guy in the Oval Office. State of play: The Fed is on high alert for any meaningful deterioration in the labor market, which could trigger interest rate cuts to try to fulfill its mandate for maximum employment. This report didn't provide that — it's hard to square a stable unemployment rate and solid payroll growth with the kind of falloff in the job market that would bring in the rate-cutting cavalry, no matter what the beneath-the-surface details show. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in May, an elevated level that suggests some residual inflation pressure remains in the job market. The policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield was up a whopping 0.09 percentage points this morning on the news, reflecting expectations that rate cuts are looking more distant. Between the lines: The Fed's policy committee meets later this month and is all but certain to leave rates unchanged, consistent with its wait-and-see mode for the impact of the trade war on the economy. The meeting after that is in late July, but that means there will only be one more month of jobs data by then. A rate cut then also looks improbable, barring a complete collapse in the data in the weeks ahead. It's far more plausible that by September there will be enough evidence of a downshift in the job market and economic activity more broadly. Yes, but: That's not what President Trump wants to hear. "If 'Too Late' at the Fed would CUT, we would greatly reduce interest rates, long and short, on debt that is coming due," Trump posted on Truth Social this morning. "Borrowing costs should be MUCH LOWER!!!" "Go for a full point, Rocket Fuel!" he later added. Reality check: The Fed isn't going to cut interest rates a full percentage point, or anything close to it, unless or until, there is more decisive evidence that the job market is losing steam.

View attachment 201089


Oil News


June 6th, 2025

ICE Brent futures are set to close this week above $66 per barrel, a more than 3% weekly gain after markets were buoyed by the prospect of US-China trade talks, all the while derailed US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine negotiations have kept geopolitical risk premia intact. Supply risks from Canada’s wildfires seem to be subsiding after Alberta saw some rain earlier in the week, however, they might reappear again on forecasts of upcoming June heatwaves.

No Nuclear Deal Means More Iran Sanctions. As US-Iran nuclear negotiations seemingly hit a roadblock after Tehran rejected the idea of transferring its inventory of enriched uranium, the US Department of Treasury announced new sanctions on Iran, targeting 10 individuals and 27 commercial entities.

Saudi Arabia Cuts Its July Prices. Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) slashed its July prices for Asian customers by $0.20 per barrel for lighter grades and by $0.10 per barrel for Arab Medium, back to May levels, citing healthy demand and low regional stocks, half the cut that analysts were expecting.

Iraq Attacks Kurdish Government. The Iraqi Oil Ministry said that it holds the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) legally responsible for the widespread smuggling of oil and refined products from Kurdistan, believed to be at least 150,000 b/d in volume as Erbil defies orders from Baghdad.

US and Japan to Iron Out US Steel Deal Concerns. Japan’s largest steelmaker Nippon Steel (TYO:5401) asked a US appeals court for an 8-day pause in litigation to give them more time to reach a final agreement to buy US Steel (NYSE:X) for $14.9 billion, as both sides believe they are closing in on the deal.

Low Stocks Buoy Copper Futures. Copper soared to its highest in two months this week, with the three-month LME futures contract touching $9,810 per metric tonne on Thursday, as inventories in LME-registered warehouses fell to just 138,000 tonnes, halving since the beginning of this year.

Clean Energy Investments Flying High, Still. According to the International Energy Agency, global energy investment will rise to a record $3.3 trillion this year, of which $2.2 trillion will come from clean energy technologies, including renewables, nuclear and energy storage, with solar being the biggest beneficiary.

Silver Soars to Highest Since 2012. Spot silver prices surged past $36 per ounce this week, for the first time in 13 years, as the metal enters its fifth consecutive year of a market deficit on the back of strong industrial demand, further boosted by silver’s safe haven appeal that lifted it by 24% in 2025 already.

Brazil Will Start Drilling Big in Africa. Petrobras (NYSEBR), the state oil company of Brazil, stated it would make Africa its main region of exploration and investment outside of Brazil, with the government of Ivory Coast offering preferential rights to nine offshore blocks this week, to be followed by Nigeria, Angola and Namibia.

Petronas Denies Rumours of Canada Exit. Malaysia’s national oil company Petronas refuted claims that it would be looking to sell its 7 billion Canadian business, however signalled that it is intent to ‘rightsize’ its workforce there and cut around 10% of its workforce as part of a restructuring exercise.

China Teapots Curb Their Appetite for Iranian Oil. Independent teapot refiners in China have slowed their purchases of Iranian crude, down by some 20% from the 1.6 million b/d average of Q1 2025, however it is not sanctions but high asking prices (a discount of -$3 per barrel to Brent) that prompted the shift.

US Rejects Ethane Loadings to China. US midstream giant Enterprise Products (NYSE:EPD) said that the US Commerce Department denied its requests to ship 2.2 million barrels of ethane in three loads to China, despite having requested an export licence right after receiving a May 23 letter from the BIS.

Discounts For Russian Oil Narrow. Discounts for Russia’s flagship Urals grade have narrowed to their lowest since the Russia-Ukraine war began as July-arrival cargoes are shown at a $2.25 per barrel discount to Brent on a delivered basis, partly due to flat prices behind the $60 per barrel price cap level.

US LNG Flows Fall Before They Soar. US feedgas flows to the country’s eight large-scale LNG export plants dipped to 13.8 BCf/d so far in June as Sabine Pass LNG is undergoing planned maintenance until June 22 and Plaquemines prepares for new commissioned units, capping next-day Henry Hub prices at $2.86 per mmBtu.

• The Uranium ETF ($URA) closed at a seven-month high today, surging more than +63% since the April 8th low, compared to nearly +20% for the S&P 500.
• Wingman notes that $URA is testing resistance at $33 for the fourth time since last May. A breakout here would clear the way for levels not seen since 2014.
• Cameco Corp. ($CCJ) is the largest holding in $URA, accounting for 23% of the ETF. Other notable components include Oklo ($OKLO), NexGen Energy ($NXE), NuScale Power ($SMR), and Uranium Energy Corp. ($UEC).

The Takeaway: The Uranium ETF ($URA) is testing a familiar level at $33 for the fourth time since last May. A successful breakout would open the door to levels not seen in a decade.

View attachment 201090



Dow Jones Industrials

We had a big birthday last week, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average turned 129 years young! It is the second oldest index (the Dow Jones Transportation Average is older) and was first calculated on May 26, 1896 by Charles Dow, co-founder of both the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones & Company.

It started as 12 companies, representing the big parts of the economy at the time, like leather, steel, and sugar. It was meant to gauge the overall health of the industrial sector. Of course, today it is 30 of the largest publicly traded companies (as it has been since October 1928) and is still widely considered one of the most well-known and cited indices in the world, but it is also one of the best gauges for the overall health of the US economy.

Here are 12 fun stats to celebrate the big birthday:

• None of the original 12 are left. General Electric was the most recent of the 12 to be included, but was it removed October 2018. Another fun stat, it was removed two other times in 1898 and again 1901, for a total of three times.
• It started with 12 stocks, but moved to 20 in 1916 and 30 in 1928. To this day, many think 30 is still too small of a sample size, but it doesn’t look like this will change anytime soon.
• A committee at the S&P Dow Jones Indices picks the components and there isn’t a ridged process or formula.
• The best year ever? A cool 82% gain in 1915, which also happened to be in the middle of World War I.
• 1931 takes the cake for the worst year ever, down nearly 53%. The Great Depression sparked this weakness, as stocks eventually fell 86% from their peak in 1929.
• It is price weighted, meaning a stock with a higher price will have more impact on the daily change. For example, when UnitedHealth Group (UNH) had their recent troubles, this made the Dow returns look worse than it was under the surface or compared with market-weighted indexes like the S&P 500.
• Average is in the name, but it isn’t an average, it is an index.
• It was up a record nine years in a row in the 1990s.
• It fell 20.5% on December 14, 1914 as World War I broke out, but the worst day ever was the 22.6% crash on October 19, 1987, better known as the Crash of 1987 or Black Monday today.
• The Dow has gained double digits in one day nine times, with the most recent off the COVID lows on March 24, 2020. The best single day ever was a 15.3% gain on March 15, 1933. Ides of March indeed.
• The best part about the Dow is how much wealth it has created over generations for investors (if you were able to track the index). It started trading at 40.94 and recently peaked at more than 45,000. And that doesn’t even include dividends! Along the way there have been many worries and concerns, yet stocks have eventually moved higher every single time. Here’s our always popular Chart of Worries showing just this.

View attachment 201095

• Lastly, it closed at about 100 in 1906 and 1,000 in 1972. It took till 1999 to get over 10,000 and recently peaked above 45,000 in December. The fasted 1k interval ever was only five days from 32,000 to 33,000 in March 2021. Any bets on when it breaks 100k?

View attachment 201096


View attachment 201093View attachment 201092View attachment 201091


I'll have a weekly roundup tomorrow.


jog on
duc

obviously, as beacon of social justice, it is even worse in France:

What are ‘crypto kidnappings’ and why are they on the rise?

Attempted abductions of ‘crypto tycoons’ are becoming more frequent and insurance companies are cashing in.

www.aljazeera.com

and
There was a kid among that mayhem

 

[ShareSuccess]

The Duc must have slept in Today.

 

[divs4ever]

with AI arrival as an overlord, the politicians and HR/H&S departments will actually be the very last to close;-)

then AI will be of no financial value , if the obsolete are retained beyond their useful date

 

[qldfrog]

The Duc must have slept in Today.

Markets closed in a few Christian countries
lundi de Pentecôte in France...
Or maybe the Duc needs a rest after keeping us updated non stop day after day

 

[farmerge]

The Duc must have slept in Today.

Well I did 7am 4.1 deg

 

[qldfrog]

then AI will be of no financial value , if the obsolete are retained beyond their useful date

Ai has no financial value for the street, only pain there:
just more tools for the policing and control of the plebs

 

[divs4ever]

Ai has no financial value for the street, only pain there:
just more tools for the policing and control of the plebs

i am not so sure at pleb level

but that will depend if there is genuine balance and openness in the data available

so far it looks like it will be a tool for indoctrination and obfuscation ( sort of a steroid-enhanced version of Google and You-Tube )

but will the more independent minds among the plebs ( contrarian thinkers and investors ) flip the output and react according to that information

ie will the plebs blindly agree with AI output ?

 

[ducati916]

The Duc must have slept in Today.

Not at all, but it is Sunday in the US so no burning need to post early.


We can use fairly timely economic data without having to wait for GDP data or calls from a “recession dating committee” (at the National Bureau of Economic Research) to gauge whether the economy is close to or in a recession, or even recovering for that matter. This includes data like initial unemployment claims, unemployment rate, survey data, housing starts and permits, factory activity and new orders, etc. A recession is a broad-based decline in economic activity and so you want to use a wide swath of data to capture the aggregate economy. I wrote about this in a recent piece on “how to identify a recession, and why it matters for investors.”

One challenge with economic data is that we get so much of it, and a lot of times it can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release. One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.

Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.

This is the rationale behind our Carson proprietary leading economic index (LEI). We create a leading economic index for the US and 28 other countries across the world (we used to have one for Russia but not anymore).

• Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies, and we roll them up to form an aggregate measure for different regions (for example, developed and emerging markets) and the world overall.
• Our LEIs include both soft data (like consumer and business sentiment) and hard data (though the US version doesn’t include any of the six NBER indicators).
• Our LEI include even market data. Stock prices can be a useful part of the mix, as it potentially carries information about the economy before economic data reflects what’s happening (though market data typically forms less than 5% of our index).

For the US specifically, our LEI includes 20+ components, including:

• Consumer-related indicators (makes up 50% of the index)
• Housing activity (18%)
• Business and manufacturing activity (22%)
• Financial markets (10%)

We believe our proprietary LEI captures the dynamics of the US economy better than other popular leading indicators, which tend to be geared toward the manufacturing sector, business activity, and sentiment. Keep in mind that consumer spending generally makes up over two-thirds of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that (especially labor market dynamics).

US LEI deteriorates​

Right now, our US LEI is telling us that economic momentum is slowing and the economy is growing below trend. At the same time, the current level of the LEI is still above levels we would normally associate with a recession, or even just prior to it — you can see in the chart below that the LEI had deteriorated much further even prior to the 2001 and 2008 recessions.

Current levels are similar to what we saw in mid-2022, when recession risks were elevated but the economy never plunged into an actual recession. This was a big reason why we didn’t call for a recession anytime between 2022 and 2024. This was in sharp contrast to all the recession calls you saw in 2022 and 2023, including signals from other popular leading economic indicators. You can also see that the LEI deteriorated in a sharp manner back in 2018, amid the trade war and Fed tightening. But the economy avoided a recession back then too.

​

Another advantage of creating our own LEI is that we know what goes into it, and what’s driving it. As it turns out, the recent deterioration in the index has come on the back of poor consumer and business sentiment, rather than “hard data.” The hard data is mostly hanging in just fine, for now. In some ways, this is akin to what we saw in 2022, when we feel most of the plunge was driven by poor survey data.



Note that the overall level is actually not far below trend (when the value is zero). It could very well level off here, or even reverse, especially if the tariff situation doesn’t get worse from here. Still, the recent deterioration tells us that risks are higher than they were at the end of last year, and that’s something to be aware of.

This is a big reason why we’re cautiously overweight equities in our models, rather than pedal to the metal (as we were over the last two years). Since the beginning of the year we’ve also shifted from a mid and small-cap overweight to a large cap overweight instead.

A Mixed Picture Abroad​

Interestingly, developed markets (ex US) are growing slightly closer to trend than the US. And it’s not being driven by any one country — countries across Europe and even Japan and Australia are seeing economic activity running near trend. Of course, keep in mind that trend growth in these countries is lower than what it has been in the US over the last 25 years.



In contrast, economic momentum in emerging markets is running a fair bit below trend. No prizes for guessing the country that’s driving this — yes, it’s China. Economic growth in China is running well below the trend we saw over the last decade, let alone the last two decades. Of course, a Chinese economy that is not firing on all cylinders is not helpful for its neighbors, and activity in nearby Asian countries, including South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia are also running below trend. India is bit of an exception, with economic momentum picking up recently. Mexico is another country where activity is running near trend — the tariff reprieve it got from President Trump was huge.



As I noted above, we remain overweight equities but continue to expect to see the benefits from a diversified portfolio, with areas like developed international stocks (with an emphasis on Europe) seeing some benefits from changes in the global economy. We have raised our international allocation to a benchmark weight after being underweight the last several years. Most US investors might not know this, but global stock markets are having banner years, many up well over double digits. I discussed this in my prior blog. In fact, the tariff situation has also pushed the rest of the world to get its act together, with countries like Germany removing its fiscal handcuffs (I wrote about this back in March). We are overweight developed markets (especially Europe) and remain underweight emerging markets.

Our LEI is an important piece of the puzzle as we form our Carson House Views since it encapsulates a lot of significant macroeconomic information. But it is not a “silver bullet” indicator (no indicator should be, or can be). Our proprietary LEI is only one input into our asset allocation, portfolio, and risk management decisions. Our process also has other pillars such as looking at monetary and fiscal policy, technical factors, and valuations.




Economic Data for the week ahead:


The key report this week is May CPI.

----- Monday, June 9th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, June 10th -----
6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April.

----- Wednesday, June 11th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in CPI (up 2.5% YoY), and a 0.3% increase in core CPI (up 2.9% YoY).

----- Thursday, June 12th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 239 thousand, up from 247 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

12:00 PM: Q1 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

----- Friday, June 13th -----
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for June).

• Biotech just posted its best week since last summer, with the equally-weighted SPDR Biotech ETF ($XBI) gaining +6.4%.
  
• While $XBI remains in a -50% drawdown from its 2021 peak, Jamie points out that it successfully cleared resistance at $83 today, marking the intersection of a 7-month downtrend line and the year-to-dateAVWAP.
  
• Biotech could 'make Small Caps great again,' considering it’s the second-largest industry group in the Russell 2000, accounting for more than 20% of the index.
  

The Takeaway: Biotech just had its best week since last summer, with $XBI breaking through a cluster of resistance at $83 today. Continued strength would be a bullish sign for the Russell 2000 and risk appetite in general.





jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Negotiations usually boil down to leverage — specifically, who has more of it. In the U.S.-China talks underway today in London, the question of who has the upper hand boils down to macro- versus micro-economics. The big picture: A slew of data out of China shows the massive cost that U.S. tariffs impose on the Chinese economy, reflecting both underlying economic weakness and what the nation stands to lose if no trade peace is reached. The U.S., meanwhile, has had a run of perfectly solid macroeconomic data, but has much to lose if China continues throttling supplies of rare earth minerals and other specific goods that U.S. industries desperately need. State of play: All is not well for the fundamentals of China's economy, and plunging trade with the U.S. exacerbated those problems. Chinese exports to the U.S. fell 34.5% in May from a year ago, according to Chinese National Bureau of Statistics data out today. Its imports from the U.S. also fell, by 18%. Consumer prices fell for the fourth consecutive month, the bureau said, while producer prices fell the most in nearly two years. The mix of moribund export activity and falling prices compounds the nation's challenges grappling with a property bust and debt overhang. Yes, but: That might make Chinese negotiators eager to make a deal. After all, the nation's leadership views maintaining stable economic conditions and good living standards as crucial for their own hold on power, and collapsing exports to the U.S. undermine that goal. But they have plenty of leverage of their own, tied to U.S. reliance on very specific Chinese exports. Reality check: China's power in this standoff is tied to its ability to restrict exports of rare earth minerals, certain electronics, and pharmaceuticals. By throttling a handful of export categories, China can potentially exact damage on the U.S. economy that's far larger than the dollar value of the lost trade flows. Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, argued in an influential essay this spring that this means China has "escalation dominance," the power to escalate or de-escalate according to its goals. What they're saying: "The United States gets vital goods from China that cannot be replaced any time soon or made at home at anything less than prohibitive cost," Posen wrote in Foreign Affairs. In the event of aggressive escalation, he wrote, the U.S. "will face shortages of critical inputs ranging from basic ingredients of most pharmaceuticals to inexpensive semiconductors used in cars and home appliances to critical minerals for industrial processes including weapons production." The intrigue: The Wall Street Journal reports this morning that President Trump has authorized his negotiating team to loosen export restrictions on jet engines and other products as part of the talks, citing people familiar. That's consistent with the decision to include Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on the U.S. team. It opens a potential new frontier for de-escalation across issues that are not normally part of trade talks.

The big ratio that no one is talking about is the Silver/Gold ratio. When precious metals are doing well, you tend to see the higher beta Silver outpacing it's lower volatility, more mature older brother Gold. We haven't seen that yet this cycle, which has been evidence that perhaps we are still very early on in this Commodities Run. Steve Strazza was talking about it this week. Now look at what just happened:

​

From failed moves come fast moves in the opposite direction. That's how we learned it around here. And we believe that this is exactly what this is. If you're wondering whether this move in precious metals is getting long in the tooth, then think again. We believe this is further evidence that this new leg higher is just getting going. Here are the top metals and mining stocks, sorted by relative strength:

​

There is a new trade just put on, which we call our Top/Down trade of the week. Don't just look at the idea itself and how we're executing. Take note of the top/down process - how we got to the idea. I think there's just as much value there as in the idea itself.

There’s still no need for American investors to run for the hills. Payrolls increased again last month, with the unemployment rate unchanged. Everything is set calm. Last fall, unemployment was rising fast enough to trigger the so-called Sahm Rule, named for Bloomberg Opinion colleague Claudia Sahm, which predicts recessions from the propensity of unemployment to inch higher and then increase very sharply. It no longer seems as though we are poised for a sharp rise in joblessness:


That makes life awkward for the Federal Reserve. Data last week offered signs of a slowing US economy, but this may reflect the way attempts to front-run potential tariffs are distorting people’s decisions. Using a simple measure, the effective fed funds rate is slightly above the unemployment rate, when for 15 years after the Global Financial Crisis it had been much lower. If unemployment ticks higher, history suggests interest rates will tumble. But that hasn’t happened yet:


Markets reduced still further the chances of more rate cuts this year. Overnight index swaps fully price only one 25-basis-point cut in 2025, with a 77% chance of a second. Meanwhile, last week brought a widely predicted rate easing by the European Central Bank, coupled with somewhat hawkish communications initially interpreted to make more cuts less likely. By the end of Friday, that move had reversed, leaving the gaps between US and European short-term rates, and between implied rates for December, almost exactly where they were on Jan. 1. After five months of intense uncertainty, central banks are back where they started:


Rate differentials are of course critical to exchange rates. What implications does this have for the drama of the dollar and the purported end of US exceptionalism?

Conventional wisdom can be a dangerous thing, but at present its judgment is clear. Seemingly everyone expects the dollar to fall. This is from Neelkant Mishra of Axis Bank in Mumbai: It is now consensus that the US dollar is likely to depreciate meaningfully over the next few years: The real effective exchange rate is at levels last seen at peaks in 1971 and 1985, the US government wants it, net international liabilities are at -90% of GDP, and primary income has turned negative. The Federal Reserve’s own estimate of the real effective exchange rate (taking into account different rates of inflation in different countries) suggests the dollar is unusually strong, after the longest upswing since it was allowed to float with the end of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971: This is not a quirk of adjusting for inflation. Using the DXY index (comparing to big developed markets), and the Bloomberg dollar index (including emerging markets as well), the pattern is clear that the dollar is still holding on to gains since the pandemic, and remains far stronger than it was at the onset of the Global Financial Crisis: But something important has changed. As we saw earlier, rate differentials between the US and Europe have barely changed since the beginning of the year, and yet the dollar is much weaker. This is very unusual, as illustrated by Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution: Brooks offers two explanations for the divergence. The benign one is that equity flows are driving it. “Markets had bought into US ‘exceptionalism’ and are now reversing themselves on that theme.” Brooks call this a “cyclical reassessment of the US growth picture, expressed via equities.” Thus rate differentials matter less than usual. His less benign interpretation is “negative animal spirits, which rate differentials fail to capture” about reserve currency status. Brooks is “almost sure” that the former is the better explanation and remains bullish on the dollar for the longer term. In other words, this is about the currency being overvalued and due a fall, not any questions about its role in the financial system. These explanations are different, and refer to two different things: the dollar’s status, and its price. Brooks points out that the currency perked up in response to Friday’s employment numbers, which is exactly what’s supposed to happen. That suggests the dollar “is healthy and its behavior in line with the past decade, when it strengthened.” Rules matter for the dollar to remain the essential currency. Photographer: Ting Shen/Bloomberg But much depends on timescale. The dollar’s status is secure for now because it lacks viable challengers. That may not last forever. Borrowing a list from Macquarie’s Viktor Shvets, a global currency and its issuer: Must be convertible with no capital controls. (The euro and the yen also satisfy this, but not the yuan). Should run a current account deficit, to place sufficient funds in foreign hands. That rules out everyone bar the dollar. Needs a deep, liquid pool of assets; at this time only the US qualifies. Needs easy-to-use and secure settlement systems; SWIFT and CHIPS are the bedrock of dollar hegemony, “with no one else coming even close.” Must have sturdy, reliable domestic institutional pillars, with consistent rules-based policies. This is where the US is falling down; for all its flaws, the EU is more of a rules-based order. Should uphold global norms and rules — another area where the US is weakening. Have stronger-than-average economic growth — an advantage for the US over the EU and Japan. For now, there is no alternative to the dollar, and there won’t be for many years. That said, the salutary effect of the Trump shock on Europe might just change that. If he proves to have administered just the kick to get the euro zone to forge a viable fiscal union, the euro’s chances of challenging the dollar rise significantly. And while the dollar will retain reserve status for a long time, Brooks’s dichotomy may not be helpful. Anatole Kaletsky of Gavekal Research argues that the long-term factors that could eventually end the dollar’s reserve status will take years, and in many cases might be reversed by future administrations. For the very near-term, the noise of each succeeding presidential social media post is driving everything. But the medium term, he contends, is predictable. Even though the US is nowhere near losing its leadership yet, “sentiment among investors about the sustainability of ‘US exceptionalism’ will be strongly influenced by how well (or badly) the US economy performs in the next year or two.” In other words, in this febrile environment, a cyclical downturn will be treated as evidence of a secular one. Kaletsky is expecting a US recession as the deleterious effects of the tariff confusion finally make themselves felt later this year, while prospects for China and particularly Europe are improving. Contrary to the usual cliché that when the US sneezes, the rest of the world gets pneumonia, he says: “This time, the US will suffer a bad case of flu, if not pneumonia, while the rest of the world will just blow its nose.”

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

• Space stocks are gaining momentum with the Ark Space Exploration & Innovation ETF ($ARKX) blasting off to all-time highs today.
  
• $ARKX initially cracked resistance at $21 on Friday, but the breakout was confirmed today as $ARKX pushed deeper into uncharted territory. This level has been the ceiling for $ARKX since its inception in 2021.
  
• If the breakout holds, $ARKX could make a new leg higher in the coming months as it explodes out of a three-year Cup & Handle pattern. The top holdings in $ARKX are: $KTOS, $RKLB, $IRDM, $ACHR, and $AVAV.
  

The Takeaway: Space stocks have set the stage for a potential leg higher, with $ARKX blasting through resistance at $21 today as it launches from a massive accumulation pattern.



Strazza


All things equal, I want the one that shook out the weak hands… before it left the station.

I want the one that bears had a clean chance to bury… but couldn’t.

I want the one that just trapped the shorts… then squeezed higher.

Bull hooks. Bear traps. Scoop ‘n scores. Shakeouts.

These are all powerful patterns, and are all similar because they are centered on the same thing…

Failed moves.

This is when price violates a key level and quickly reverses in the opposite direction.

“From failed moves come fast moves” is how I learned it.

And that’s exactly what is happening with Bitcoin $BTC right now. Here’s a look:


BTC ramped from about 75k to north of 110k in a matter of five weeks off the April lows.

The rally culminated in new all-time highs in late May… but within days, it failed back into the old range.

The question, then, becomes whether or not this was a failed breakout or a false start.

BTC was simply coiling in a bull flag around the upper bounds of its range, so we were leaning in the direction of the underlying trend and thinking false start.

Then on Thursday, it shook to its lowest level in about a month, before hooking higher.

It’s been all green on the screen since.

Today, it reclaimed its VWAP from the all-time highs.

So as far as I’m concerned, we have our answer. This breakout is on.

It’s happening now.

And it’s happening on the heels of a textbook shakeout back below its prior-cycle highs.

While everyone on Twitter was talking about the epic failed breakout, we were looking for a little shake ‘n bake instead. I like to call this a false fail.

And now we've got it with BTC pressing back above $110k.

Think of the implications. A breakout in Bitcoin is likely to be accompanied by a new leg up for the entire crypto space.

Solana and the altcoins are looking up. BTC miners are working more and more. Even Ethereum looks like it wants to resolve a textbook bull flag. And don’t forget the equity leaders MSTR, COIN, and HOOD.

My point is that a lot of other things should work well, too, if BTC sticks this breakout.

There's a real chance that newborn children in the US will begin receiving $1,000 in an investment account at birth if President Trump's budget bill passes Congress in the months ahead. CEOs of some major public companies are actually meeting at the White House today to discuss the "$1,000 at birth" provision. Below is a chart we created showing how much $1,000 at birth would be worth today if it were invested in the S&P 500 at the end of each month going back 50 years (with dividends re-invested).

​

As shown above, $1,000 invested in the S&P fifty years ago and not touched would be worth nearly $350,000 today. That number drops to roughly $127,000 if the $1,000 were invested at the end of November 1980 and $40,000 if the start date is August 1987. Even still, there are a lot of 37-year olds out there born just before the 1987 crash that wouldn't mind having $40k in an investment account right now! The second chart above shows the same data over just the last 25 years for better scale. Because of the Dot Com bubble and burst of the late 1990s and early 2000s and the Financial Crisis of the late 2000s, people born in various months during this period would have quite different account values right now. $1,000 invested in August 2000 just after the Dot Com peak would be worth roughly $6,200 today, while $1,000 invested nearly ten years later in February 2009 would be worth nearly $5k more at $11,000. If this provision comes to pass, we may see birth rates go up during lengthy bear markets!

Further to the May 22, 2025 post on platinum in this Substack, the global platinum market is showing signs of intense and increasing tightness.

For the second year in a row, 2024 saw a 1 million (M) oz. supply deficit in a global 8M oz. market that is expected to continue for more than the next 5 years going forward as global mine supply of platinum is projected to continue to decline.

Global mine supply is sourced 80% from South Africa and Zimbabwe combined.

Last week, platinum in New York was in ‘backwardation’ with the cash price of platinum being higher than the active futures month signaling a shortage of physical metal in the market.

Metals analyst Rob Gottlieb also noted this past week that the 1-month lease rate for platinum in the London market was up to 9.5% p.a. providing further evidence of physical shortage in the market.

COMEX vault stocks of platinum in New York dropped to 353,000 oz. of platinum as can be seen in Figure 1 below.
For comparison, there are 38,300,000 oz. of gold in New York CME COMEX/NYMEX vaults.

​

Figure 1 - Platinum Vault Stocks In New York CME COMEX Vaults at June 5, 2025; source: GoldChartsRUs.com

Total open interest futures contract claims for platinum on the COMEX stands at 4.8M oz. in comparison to the 353k oz. of platinum in COMEX vaults.
Friday June 6, 2025 also saw the highest volume of platinum futures trading on the CME COMEX market with 73,458 contracts at 50 oz. each changing hands - see the red dot in the bottom panel of Figure 2 that contains data through June 5, 2025.

​

Figure 2 - Platinum Daily Price, Open Interest, And Trading Volume for New York COMEX Market 2003 to June 5, 2025; source: GoldChartsRUs.com

The ratio of the price of gold vs platinum (bottom panel in Figure 3 below) currently stands at approximately 3:1 vs the long-run average of approximately 1:1.

​

Figure 3 - Platinum and Gold Monthly Prices and Price Ratio 1970 to May 30, 2025; source: GoldChartsRUs.com

Like gold and silver, the world’s largest platinum and palladium cash market in London (LPPM) also trades paper promissory notes that are largely unbacked with metal and the run to secure physical possession against these contracts appears to be extending beyond gold and silver now to platinum as well.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Oil News


According to industry consultant Wood Mackenzie, the US Gulf of America (also known as the Gulf of Mexico before President Trump) will become the US’ main driver of oil supply growth this year.

- Whilst shale drillers are cutting back on exploration and the drilling of new wells as breakevens are close to the Permian’s $62-63 per barrel breakevens, the GoA enjoys a much healthier breakeven of $30-40 per barrel.

- Moreover, Chevron’s most recent offshore additions are breaking even as low as $20 per barrel, with projects such as Ballymore (75,000 b/d capacity) no longer requiring a separate platform and tying back into existing infrastructure instead.

- Lack of exploration might impede future growth in the Gulf of America as licensing was virtually non-existent in Biden years, with the last big discovery coming from Shell’s 2017 Whale find, but the GoA will enjoy a sweet couple of years ahead regardless.

Market Movers

- US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) reported two new discoveries offshore Canada’s Newfoundland, boosting reserves in the Hibernia and Hebron production clusters by 75 million barrels.

- US investment firm Glenfarne Group attracted interest from more than 50 companies for contracts exceeding $115 billion for its Alaska LNG project, with an FID expected in Q4 2025.

- Italian oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) signed an agreement with Argentina’s YPF to become a strategic partner in the 30 mtpa Argentina LNG project, seeking to start exporting shale gas from Vaca Muerta by 2030.

Tuesday, June 10, 2025

Oil markets have responded positively to US-China talks in London, expecting a recovery in rare earth metal flows and global trade barriers. ICE Brent has been surprisingly stable above $67 per barrel this week so far, still buoyed by macro tailwinds following last week’s positive US jobs report that set up the Fed for an interest rate cut soon.

EU Unveils Yet Another Sanctions Pack Against Russia. The European Union proposed new sanctions on Russia’s Nord Stream pipeline, a lower oil price cap that would see a drop from $60 per barrel to $45 per barrel, as well as additional bans on 22 Russian banks in its 18th sanctions package.

China Offers Rare Earths Olive Branch to EU. China’s Commerce Ministry said it is willing to accelerate the approval of rare earth exports to EU companies, just as trade talks between Beijing and Brussels on Europe’s treatment of Chinese EV cars have entered their final stage.

US Bans Exports of Nuclear Components to China. The US Department of Commerce reportedly informed nuclear equipment suppliers that their contracted sales to China’s power plants would now be subject to government restrictions, impacting companies like Emerson and Westinghouse.

Chinese Oil Imports Dip on Turnarounds. China’s crude oil imports declined to 10.97 million b/d in May, a 3% month-on-month drop compared to April and yet another year-on-year decrease, as seasonal maintenance works, restricted Iranian imports, and high Saudi formula prices cut demand.

The Fight Is on for Namibia Oil. Defying recent write-downs from Shell’s Graff discovery, French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) is reportedly poised to outbid rivals such as Petrobras for a huge stake in Namibia’s Mopane discovery as Portugal’s Galp (ELI:GALP) is seeking a farm-in.

Solar Firms Start to Fall Like Dominoes. The US renewable energy industry is bracing for impact after residential solar company Sunnova Energy filed for bankruptcy Monday, fresh on the heels of a Chapter 11 filing of rooftop solar lender Solar Mosaic, amidst fears that there will be more to come.

Early Monsoon Slashes Asia’s LNG Appetite. With the monsoon season arriving in most parts of India, Thailand, and southern China two weeks ahead of its normal date of onset, lowering temperatures across the region, lowering LNG demand, and prompting India’s GAIL to resell 2 cargoes.

Germany Locks In Azeri Gas. Germany’s SEFE signed a 10-year pipeline supply deal with Azerbaijan’s national oil company SOCAR for 1.5 Bcm per year, starting from 2026, the company’s first pipe deal since Berlin nationalized Gazprom’s German subsidiary.

Platinum Prices Soar on Tight Supply. Spot platinum prices rose for the sixth straight session on Monday, reaching their highest level since May 2021 at $1,200 per ounce after a stellar 33% bull run this year to date, amidst fears of tight supply as 2025 is expected to record a 1 million ounce deficit.

Japan Imports First Russian Oil in Three Years. Japanese refiner has purchased a cargo of Russia’s Sakhalin Blend, the East Asian country’s first imports of Russian oil since the beginning of 2023, with the US exempting imports from the Sakhalin 2 until June 28 as Mitsui holds a 12.5% stake in it.

UK Doubles Down on New Nuclear. The government of the United Kingdom vowed to invest $19.3 billion to build the Sizewell C nuclear plant in southeast England, the second new nuclear unit to be built in two decades, with EDF’s Hinkley Point launching in 2029.

Nigeria to Get Giant Saudi Oil-Backed Loan. Saudi national oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) is in the final stage of extending a $5 billion oil-backed loan for Nigeria, although lower outright oil prices sparked price risk concerns amongst underwriters.

At the heart of President Trump's volatile trade agenda is the idea that the world has treated the U.S. unfairly. As it happens, economists at the World Bank agree. Why it matters: Access to U.S. markets has been one-sided, the development group says in a new report, with higher hurdles for America's companies around the world — a dynamic that has served the global economy well in recent decades, until now. That said, they see the Trump administration's response — big, new tariffs on U.S. imports — as likely to cause a meaningful slowdown in global growth this year. What they're saying: "This favorable access to the U.S. market was not a sustainable policy — it could not be sustained indefinitely," Indermit Gill, the World Bank's chief economist, told reporters ahead of the report's release. "As you go from the high-income down to the lowest-income countries, the tariff differentials [with the U.S.] get bigger and bigger. This is something that's a fact," Gill said. "If this problem goes away, I think that the second half of this year will actually be one of growth," he added. Yes, but: The group released bleak forecasts today that say 2025 will see the slowest economic growth in 17 years, outside of any recessionary period. The World Bank estimates that the global economy will weaken to 2.3% this year, a 0.4 percentage point downgrade from the projection at the start of the year. Expectations of a sharper slowdown in larger economies, namely the U.S., were almost entirely responsible for the downgrade. The World Bank sees the U.S. economy expanding by 1.4% this year, nearly a full percentage point downgrade from its January projections. The sluggish growth is expected to spill over into the world's smallest and poorest nations "with tight trade and investment linkages" with the U.S., China and Europe, the bank said. The projections assume tariffs in place as of May stick this year and next. If tariffs are halved in global trade deals that diminish uncertainty, global growth would be a combined 0.4 percentage point higher over the next two years. Zoom out: The World Bank called on global leaders — specifically those in the world's developing nations — to level out trade barriers with the U.S. and other countries. "Most developing economies today tend to have far higher tariffs than high-income economies," the report says. "If their goal is to accelerate growth, their best course of action will be to lower tariffs with respect to all trading partners." "We are largely talking about tariffs right now because it's the clearest to measure, but we do need to get into all of the other things," Gill said. "Otherwise, you will have a problem of trade and capital market imbalances."

Amazon is investing $20 billion in Pennsylvania to expand its cloud and AI infrastructure, building new data centers in Salem and Falls Townships. This marks the largest private investment in the state and will create at least 1,250 high-skilled jobs in engineering, network operations, and security. The move underscores Amazon’s commitment to AI, providing the computing power necessary for next-generation AI applications. Workforce programs will train local talent in cloud computing and technical trades to support long-term growth. The company is also funding renewable energy projects and a $250,000 community fund focused on STEM education and digital skills.

$AMZN is still down approximately 10% from its February all-time high. If the stock remains above $200, I suspect an all-time high is coming soon…

​

From Barchart:


Valued at $63.4 billion, Roblox (RBLX) develops and operates an online entertainment platform. It offers Roblox Client, an application that allows users to explore 3D digital worlds; and Roblox Studio, a toolset which allows developers and creators to build, publish and operate 3D experiences and other content. The company also provides Roblox Cloud, a solution which provides services and infrastructure to power the human co-experience platform.

What I’m Watching:​

Author’s Note: I bought my grandson a gaming computer for his birthday and his mother tells me he has been on Roblox since he opened the box. So, when it came up on my screener, I took a second look.

I found today’s Chart of the Day by using Barchart’s powerful screening functions. I sorted for stocks with the highest technical buy signals, superior current momentum in both strength and direction, and a Trend Seeker “buy” signal. I then used Barchart’s Flipcharts feature to review the charts for consistent price appreciation. RBLX checks those boxes. Since the Trend Seeker signaled a buy on April 24, the stock has gained 45.84%.

RBLX Price vs. Daily Moving Averages:
www.barchart.com

---

---

Barchart Technical Indicators for Roblox:​

Editor’s Note: The technical indicators below are updated live during the session every 20 minutes and can therefore change each day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com website when you read this report. These technical indicators form the Barchart Opinion on a particular stock.

Roblox shares hit a new 52-week high on June 6, touching $96.28 in intraday trading. Shares have since pulled back slightly, trading now near $94.30.

• Roblox has a 100% technical “Buy” signal.
• The stock closed at $93.42 on June 9, above its 50-day moving average of $72.14.
• RBLX has a Weighted Alpha of +174.13.
• The stock has gained 167.3% over the past year.
• RBLX has its Trend Seeker “Buy” signal intact.
• Roblox is trading above its 20, 50 and 100-day moving averages.
• The stock has made 14 new highs and gained 30% in the last month.
• Relative Strength Index is at 83.7%.
• The technical support level is $94.93.

Follow the Fundamentals:​

• $63.4 billion market cap.
• Revenue is projected to grow 23.23% this year and another 20.26% next year.
• Earnings are estimated to increase 2.62% this year and an additional 16.56% next year.

Analyst and Investor Sentiment on Roblox:​

I don’t buy stocks because everyone else is buying, but I do realize that if major firms and investors are dumping a stock, it’s hard to make money swimming against the tide.

It looks like not only Wall Street analysts, but also many of the popular investing advisory services, are moderately bullish on this stock.

• Wall Street analysts tracked by Barchart issued 15 “Strong Buy,” one “Moderate Buy,” six “Hold” and two “Sell” opinions on the stock.
• Value Line gives the stock its lowest rating and comments: “The company remains focused on expanding its share of the global gaming market. The goal is to capture 10% of the market, which is an impressive leap from its current position of 2.4%. To reach the higher standing, Roblox intends to make several technology investments to improve the quality of the platform.”
• CFRA’s MarketScope rates the stock a “Buy” and comments: “Risks to our opinion include intense competition in the VR/3D experiences segment from larger players like Apple and Unity Software, which could impact market share growth.”
• MorningStar thinks the stock is 112% overvalued but comments: “We believe Roblox benefits from a narrow moat that is underpinned by a network effect, so we expect healthy user growth to continue, but we expect the rate to slow in developed markets especially. We question the size of the audience to which Roblox’s platform is attractive.”
• 63,080 investors monitor the stock on Seeking Alpha, which rates the stock a “Hold.”

The Bottom Line:​

Analyst sentiment is moderately bullish on Roblox, although some caution on its valuation amid competition from larger players like Apple (AAPL) and Unity (U).

While RBLX has momentum and investor support, I emphasize strict risk management as the stock remains volatile and speculative.
Additional disclosure: The Barchart of the Day highlights stocks that are experiencing exceptional current price appreciation. They are not intended to be buy recommendations as these stocks are extremely volatile and speculative. Should you decide to add one of these stocks to your investment portfolio it is highly suggested you follow a predetermined diversification and moving stop loss discipline that is consistent with your personal investment risk tolerance.



Beyond the economic collapse that they always bring, there is also an annual cost to fiat currency systems. However, the price inflation effects of systematic and perennial currency inflation by central bankers is not well received by the populace as their quality of life declines.

In order to continue this currency scheme, central planners used two primary tools starting in the 1980s: 1) suspending the gold and silver price signal that warns of central bank monetary inflation and 2) the systematic reduction of the published measures of price inflation.

Starting in the 1980s, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) began to make a series of ‘adjustments’ to their CPI price inflation models that increasingly understated price inflation in the economy.

The CPI adjustments included substitution effects where the basket of goods is changed to lower the price inflation measure, ‘hedonics’ where the price of basket items is reduced to reflect their higher function as they are improved over time, geometric vs arithmetic weightings, etc.

We can see the adjustment effect in the graph below comparing M2 and M3 money supply measures and the resultant impact on CPI price inflation measures over time.

The black line shows the CPI-U measure over time with the BLS model fixed after 1980. The plum highlighted line shows the CPI-U as reported and frequently adjusted by the BLS.

All of the curves are 10-year moving averages to remove statistical noise.

​

Figure 1 - 10-Year Moving Averages of: M2 & M3 Money Supply, CPI-U Inflation Index (plum highlighted line as reported by the BLS, black line after 1980 calculated using the BLS 1980 CPI model fixed as calculated by shadowstats.com)

The relationship between monetary debasement (monetary inflation) and consumer price inflation can clearly be seen in the graph above before price inflation is adjusted away by the BLS.
The central bankers ‘commitment’ to target a 2% CPI inflation rate was really nothing at all as the CPI inflation measure was systematically dumbed-down over time.

It’s not you: prices seem a lot higher because they are a lot higher than is admitted by government statistics.

In 2021, the annual rate of change of M2 money supply hit +27%.

Stopping The Perps From Stealing Your Assets​

The garbage government currency (GGC) that is being used today is nearing failure as the need to continually inflate the currency to support parabolic interest rate costs drives toward the inevitable event horizon.

Stopping the continued theft by inflation simply requires a transition from using GGCs to utilizing gold and silver in transactions and as savings.
It is inevitable that individuals will transition from using GGC to gold and silver in transactions will occur.
In fact, the use of private money is already starting to occur and on an increasing basis.
In order to recover assets stolen from you by pernicious monetary inflation over decades, individuals are simply taking a position in gold and silver (disclaimer: this is an observation and not investment advice).

While GGCs approach failure, gold and silver are soaring in value as individuals position themselves, as can be seen below.

​

Figure 2 - Gold & Silver Relative Prices 2001 To 2025; source: TradingView.com

The rising value of gold and silver above reflects an increasing decline in the value of fiat currencies.

We can observe from fiat currency failure in Weimar Germany and other countries that the gold and silver fiat price curves move vertically in the coming phase.

When NATO’s next chief says, “Spend more or learn Russian,” he’s not joking. A 400% surge in missile defense. Millions more artillery shells. Thousands of tanks. Rutte's vision isn’t just about deterrence—it’s about building an industrial war machine across Europe. That kind of ramp up doesn’t happen in a vacuum. It means real capital flowing into steel, aluminum, energy, logistics, explosives, and rare earths. It means higher demand for diesel, copper, uranium, and defense related tech. It’s a global rearmament cycle—slow moving, but gathering speed. This isn’t about one war. It’s a shift in mindset: from peace dividend to security premium. Commodities benefit from kinetic reindustrialization — you can’t build tanks with spreadsheets. Energy demand rises as nations stockpile, rebuild refining capacity, and power new supply chains. Base metals surge as defense, EVs, and infrastructure all compete for constrained resources. Agriculture, too, enters play if logistics and Black Sea routes remain volatile. Markets haven't fully priced this in. The world still assumes “soft landing,” disinflation, and rate cuts. But if geopolitics continues to heat up, fiscal firepower trumps monetary theory. This is a developing macro tailwind. The commodity trade isn’t just cyclical—it’s political. And now, with the return of Cold War posturing, it’s also existential. Because here’s the final risk: when everyone prepares for war, war gets closer. Build enough weapons, draw enough red lines, and eventually—someone crosses one. And Smart Money Might Already Know It... Look at the positioning.

​

In crude oil, the COT Index just hit 100—the highest level of smart money buying since 2013. Commercials are stepping in aggressively while the crowd is distracted by rate cut fantasies. These are not traders chasing headlines. These are the supply chain insiders, the hedgers, the producers—buying when no one else wants to. They may not know exactly what’s coming. But they know something is coming. That’s the signal worth listening to.

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

Oil News


According to industry consultant Wood Mackenzie, the US Gulf of America (also known as the Gulf of Mexico before President Trump) will become the US’ main driver of oil supply growth this year.

- Whilst shale drillers are cutting back on exploration and the drilling of new wells as breakevens are close to the Permian’s $62-63 per barrel breakevens, the GoA enjoys a much healthier breakeven of $30-40 per barrel.

- Moreover, Chevron’s most recent offshore additions are breaking even as low as $20 per barrel, with projects such as Ballymore (75,000 b/d capacity) no longer requiring a separate platform and tying back into existing infrastructure instead.

- Lack of exploration might impede future growth in the Gulf of America as licensing was virtually non-existent in Biden years, with the last big discovery coming from Shell’s 2017 Whale find, but the GoA will enjoy a sweet couple of years ahead regardless.

Market Movers

- US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) reported two new discoveries offshore Canada’s Newfoundland, boosting reserves in the Hibernia and Hebron production clusters by 75 million barrels.

- US investment firm Glenfarne Group attracted interest from more than 50 companies for contracts exceeding $115 billion for its Alaska LNG project, with an FID expected in Q4 2025.

- Italian oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) signed an agreement with Argentina’s YPF to become a strategic partner in the 30 mtpa Argentina LNG project, seeking to start exporting shale gas from Vaca Muerta by 2030.

Tuesday, June 10, 2025

Oil markets have responded positively to US-China talks in London, expecting a recovery in rare earth metal flows and global trade barriers. ICE Brent has been surprisingly stable above $67 per barrel this week so far, still buoyed by macro tailwinds following last week’s positive US jobs report that set up the Fed for an interest rate cut soon.

EU Unveils Yet Another Sanctions Pack Against Russia. The European Union proposed new sanctions on Russia’s Nord Stream pipeline, a lower oil price cap that would see a drop from $60 per barrel to $45 per barrel, as well as additional bans on 22 Russian banks in its 18th sanctions package.

China Offers Rare Earths Olive Branch to EU. China’s Commerce Ministry said it is willing to accelerate the approval of rare earth exports to EU companies, just as trade talks between Beijing and Brussels on Europe’s treatment of Chinese EV cars have entered their final stage.

US Bans Exports of Nuclear Components to China. The US Department of Commerce reportedly informed nuclear equipment suppliers that their contracted sales to China’s power plants would now be subject to government restrictions, impacting companies like Emerson and Westinghouse.

Chinese Oil Imports Dip on Turnarounds. China’s crude oil imports declined to 10.97 million b/d in May, a 3% month-on-month drop compared to April and yet another year-on-year decrease, as seasonal maintenance works, restricted Iranian imports, and high Saudi formula prices cut demand.

The Fight Is on for Namibia Oil. Defying recent write-downs from Shell’s Graff discovery, French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) is reportedly poised to outbid rivals such as Petrobras for a huge stake in Namibia’s Mopane discovery as Portugal’s Galp (ELI:GALP) is seeking a farm-in.

Solar Firms Start to Fall Like Dominoes. The US renewable energy industry is bracing for impact after residential solar company Sunnova Energy filed for bankruptcy Monday, fresh on the heels of a Chapter 11 filing of rooftop solar lender Solar Mosaic, amidst fears that there will be more to come.

Early Monsoon Slashes Asia’s LNG Appetite. With the monsoon season arriving in most parts of India, Thailand, and southern China two weeks ahead of its normal date of onset, lowering temperatures across the region, lowering LNG demand, and prompting India’s GAIL to resell 2 cargoes.

Germany Locks In Azeri Gas. Germany’s SEFE signed a 10-year pipeline supply deal with Azerbaijan’s national oil company SOCAR for 1.5 Bcm per year, starting from 2026, the company’s first pipe deal since Berlin nationalized Gazprom’s German subsidiary.

Platinum Prices Soar on Tight Supply. Spot platinum prices rose for the sixth straight session on Monday, reaching their highest level since May 2021 at $1,200 per ounce after a stellar 33% bull run this year to date, amidst fears of tight supply as 2025 is expected to record a 1 million ounce deficit.

Japan Imports First Russian Oil in Three Years. Japanese refiner has purchased a cargo of Russia’s Sakhalin Blend, the East Asian country’s first imports of Russian oil since the beginning of 2023, with the US exempting imports from the Sakhalin 2 until June 28 as Mitsui holds a 12.5% stake in it.

UK Doubles Down on New Nuclear. The government of the United Kingdom vowed to invest $19.3 billion to build the Sizewell C nuclear plant in southeast England, the second new nuclear unit to be built in two decades, with EDF’s Hinkley Point launching in 2029.

Nigeria to Get Giant Saudi Oil-Backed Loan. Saudi national oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) is in the final stage of extending a $5 billion oil-backed loan for Nigeria, although lower outright oil prices sparked price risk concerns amongst underwriters.

At the heart of President Trump's volatile trade agenda is the idea that the world has treated the U.S. unfairly. As it happens, economists at the World Bank agree. Why it matters: Access to U.S. markets has been one-sided, the development group says in a new report, with higher hurdles for America's companies around the world — a dynamic that has served the global economy well in recent decades, until now. That said, they see the Trump administration's response — big, new tariffs on U.S. imports — as likely to cause a meaningful slowdown in global growth this year. What they're saying: "This favorable access to the U.S. market was not a sustainable policy — it could not be sustained indefinitely," Indermit Gill, the World Bank's chief economist, told reporters ahead of the report's release. "As you go from the high-income down to the lowest-income countries, the tariff differentials [with the U.S.] get bigger and bigger. This is something that's a fact," Gill said. "If this problem goes away, I think that the second half of this year will actually be one of growth," he added. Yes, but: The group released bleak forecasts today that say 2025 will see the slowest economic growth in 17 years, outside of any recessionary period. The World Bank estimates that the global economy will weaken to 2.3% this year, a 0.4 percentage point downgrade from the projection at the start of the year. Expectations of a sharper slowdown in larger economies, namely the U.S., were almost entirely responsible for the downgrade. The World Bank sees the U.S. economy expanding by 1.4% this year, nearly a full percentage point downgrade from its January projections. The sluggish growth is expected to spill over into the world's smallest and poorest nations "with tight trade and investment linkages" with the U.S., China and Europe, the bank said. The projections assume tariffs in place as of May stick this year and next. If tariffs are halved in global trade deals that diminish uncertainty, global growth would be a combined 0.4 percentage point higher over the next two years. Zoom out: The World Bank called on global leaders — specifically those in the world's developing nations — to level out trade barriers with the U.S. and other countries. "Most developing economies today tend to have far higher tariffs than high-income economies," the report says. "If their goal is to accelerate growth, their best course of action will be to lower tariffs with respect to all trading partners." "We are largely talking about tariffs right now because it's the clearest to measure, but we do need to get into all of the other things," Gill said. "Otherwise, you will have a problem of trade and capital market imbalances."

Amazon is investing $20 billion in Pennsylvania to expand its cloud and AI infrastructure, building new data centers in Salem and Falls Townships. This marks the largest private investment in the state and will create at least 1,250 high-skilled jobs in engineering, network operations, and security. The move underscores Amazon’s commitment to AI, providing the computing power necessary for next-generation AI applications. Workforce programs will train local talent in cloud computing and technical trades to support long-term growth. The company is also funding renewable energy projects and a $250,000 community fund focused on STEM education and digital skills.

$AMZN is still down approximately 10% from its February all-time high. If the stock remains above $200, I suspect an all-time high is coming soon…

View attachment 201304​

From Barchart:


Valued at $63.4 billion, Roblox (RBLX) develops and operates an online entertainment platform. It offers Roblox Client, an application that allows users to explore 3D digital worlds; and Roblox Studio, a toolset which allows developers and creators to build, publish and operate 3D experiences and other content. The company also provides Roblox Cloud, a solution which provides services and infrastructure to power the human co-experience platform.

What I’m Watching:​

Author’s Note: I bought my grandson a gaming computer for his birthday and his mother tells me he has been on Roblox since he opened the box. So, when it came up on my screener, I took a second look.

I found today’s Chart of the Day by using Barchart’s powerful screening functions. I sorted for stocks with the highest technical buy signals, superior current momentum in both strength and direction, and a Trend Seeker “buy” signal. I then used Barchart’s Flipcharts feature to review the charts for consistent price appreciation. RBLX checks those boxes. Since the Trend Seeker signaled a buy on April 24, the stock has gained 45.84%.

RBLX Price vs. Daily Moving Averages:
View attachment 201305www.barchart.com

---

---

Barchart Technical Indicators for Roblox:​

Editor’s Note: The technical indicators below are updated live during the session every 20 minutes and can therefore change each day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com website when you read this report. These technical indicators form the Barchart Opinion on a particular stock.

Roblox shares hit a new 52-week high on June 6, touching $96.28 in intraday trading. Shares have since pulled back slightly, trading now near $94.30.

• Roblox has a 100% technical “Buy” signal.
• The stock closed at $93.42 on June 9, above its 50-day moving average of $72.14.
• RBLX has a Weighted Alpha of +174.13.
• The stock has gained 167.3% over the past year.
• RBLX has its Trend Seeker “Buy” signal intact.
• Roblox is trading above its 20, 50 and 100-day moving averages.
• The stock has made 14 new highs and gained 30% in the last month.
• Relative Strength Index is at 83.7%.
• The technical support level is $94.93.

Follow the Fundamentals:​

• $63.4 billion market cap.
• Revenue is projected to grow 23.23% this year and another 20.26% next year.
• Earnings are estimated to increase 2.62% this year and an additional 16.56% next year.

Analyst and Investor Sentiment on Roblox:​

I don’t buy stocks because everyone else is buying, but I do realize that if major firms and investors are dumping a stock, it’s hard to make money swimming against the tide.

It looks like not only Wall Street analysts, but also many of the popular investing advisory services, are moderately bullish on this stock.

• Wall Street analysts tracked by Barchart issued 15 “Strong Buy,” one “Moderate Buy,” six “Hold” and two “Sell” opinions on the stock.
• Value Line gives the stock its lowest rating and comments: “The company remains focused on expanding its share of the global gaming market. The goal is to capture 10% of the market, which is an impressive leap from its current position of 2.4%. To reach the higher standing, Roblox intends to make several technology investments to improve the quality of the platform.”
• CFRA’s MarketScope rates the stock a “Buy” and comments: “Risks to our opinion include intense competition in the VR/3D experiences segment from larger players like Apple and Unity Software, which could impact market share growth.”
• MorningStar thinks the stock is 112% overvalued but comments: “We believe Roblox benefits from a narrow moat that is underpinned by a network effect, so we expect healthy user growth to continue, but we expect the rate to slow in developed markets especially. We question the size of the audience to which Roblox’s platform is attractive.”
• 63,080 investors monitor the stock on Seeking Alpha, which rates the stock a “Hold.”

The Bottom Line:​

Analyst sentiment is moderately bullish on Roblox, although some caution on its valuation amid competition from larger players like Apple (AAPL) and Unity (U).

While RBLX has momentum and investor support, I emphasize strict risk management as the stock remains volatile and speculative.
Additional disclosure: The Barchart of the Day highlights stocks that are experiencing exceptional current price appreciation. They are not intended to be buy recommendations as these stocks are extremely volatile and speculative. Should you decide to add one of these stocks to your investment portfolio it is highly suggested you follow a predetermined diversification and moving stop loss discipline that is consistent with your personal investment risk tolerance.



Beyond the economic collapse that they always bring, there is also an annual cost to fiat currency systems. However, the price inflation effects of systematic and perennial currency inflation by central bankers is not well received by the populace as their quality of life declines.

In order to continue this currency scheme, central planners used two primary tools starting in the 1980s: 1) suspending the gold and silver price signal that warns of central bank monetary inflation and 2) the systematic reduction of the published measures of price inflation.

Starting in the 1980s, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) began to make a series of ‘adjustments’ to their CPI price inflation models that increasingly understated price inflation in the economy.

The CPI adjustments included substitution effects where the basket of goods is changed to lower the price inflation measure, ‘hedonics’ where the price of basket items is reduced to reflect their higher function as they are improved over time, geometric vs arithmetic weightings, etc.

We can see the adjustment effect in the graph below comparing M2 and M3 money supply measures and the resultant impact on CPI price inflation measures over time.

The black line shows the CPI-U measure over time with the BLS model fixed after 1980. The plum highlighted line shows the CPI-U as reported and frequently adjusted by the BLS.

All of the curves are 10-year moving averages to remove statistical noise.

View attachment 201306​

Figure 1 - 10-Year Moving Averages of: M2 & M3 Money Supply, CPI-U Inflation Index (plum highlighted line as reported by the BLS, black line after 1980 calculated using the BLS 1980 CPI model fixed as calculated by shadowstats.com)


It’s not you: prices seem a lot higher because they are a lot higher than is admitted by government statistics.

In 2021, the annual rate of change of M2 money supply hit +27%.

Stopping The Perps From Stealing Your Assets​

The garbage government currency (GGC) that is being used today is nearing failure as the need to continually inflate the currency to support parabolic interest rate costs drives toward the inevitable event horizon.


While GGCs approach failure, gold and silver are soaring in value as individuals position themselves, as can be seen below.

View attachment 201307​

Figure 2 - Gold & Silver Relative Prices 2001 To 2025; source: TradingView.com

The rising value of gold and silver above reflects an increasing decline in the value of fiat currencies.

We can observe from fiat currency failure in Weimar Germany and other countries that the gold and silver fiat price curves move vertically in the coming phase.

When NATO’s next chief says, “Spend more or learn Russian,” he’s not joking. A 400% surge in missile defense. Millions more artillery shells. Thousands of tanks. Rutte's vision isn’t just about deterrence—it’s about building an industrial war machine across Europe. That kind of ramp up doesn’t happen in a vacuum. It means real capital flowing into steel, aluminum, energy, logistics, explosives, and rare earths. It means higher demand for diesel, copper, uranium, and defense related tech. It’s a global rearmament cycle—slow moving, but gathering speed. This isn’t about one war. It’s a shift in mindset: from peace dividend to security premium. Commodities benefit from kinetic reindustrialization — you can’t build tanks with spreadsheets. Energy demand rises as nations stockpile, rebuild refining capacity, and power new supply chains. Base metals surge as defense, EVs, and infrastructure all compete for constrained resources. Agriculture, too, enters play if logistics and Black Sea routes remain volatile. Markets haven't fully priced this in. The world still assumes “soft landing,” disinflation, and rate cuts. But if geopolitics continues to heat up, fiscal firepower trumps monetary theory. This is a developing macro tailwind. The commodity trade isn’t just cyclical—it’s political. And now, with the return of Cold War posturing, it’s also existential. Because here’s the final risk: when everyone prepares for war, war gets closer. Build enough weapons, draw enough red lines, and eventually—someone crosses one. And Smart Money Might Already Know It... Look at the positioning.

View attachment 201308​

In crude oil, the COT Index just hit 100—the highest level of smart money buying since 2013. Commercials are stepping in aggressively while the crowd is distracted by rate cut fantasies. These are not traders chasing headlines. These are the supply chain insiders, the hedgers, the producers—buying when no one else wants to. They may not know exactly what’s coming. But they know something is coming. That’s the signal worth listening to.

jog on
duc

COT index: commitment of trader (Smart money)

 

[ducati916]

Full:https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/nerds-are-better-investors





Full:https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2025/06/09/retail-quants-next-stabilizing-force-markets



Uranium

One of the top-performing areas of the speculative growth theme has been the “new-school” nuclear trade. OKLO already tagged one target, SMR is on its way, and NNE is coiled and wants next. Click the link to read our nuclear energy deep dive. These have been some of the top stocks off the April lows, and now the old-school names like Cameco $CCJ are powering higher too. What I’m saying is the entire nuclear space is red-hot, and I want more of it. Here’s the VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF $NLR breaking out to its highest level since 2008.

​

After a 50% move in two months’ time, one might think this trend is extended, but it’s not. This is a fresh breakout over longer timeframes, and price should keep climbing up the right-hand side of this structural base. But today, we’re going to forget the old nuclear names and forget the new nuclear names. Everyone already knows about them. I want to talk about the $500M picks and axes play, ASP Isotopes $ASPI. ASPI isn’t making power plants—it’s developing isotopes with potential roles in quantum computing, semiconductors, and advanced nuclear fuels. Now, I’ll be the first to admit I don’t even know what an isotope is. But just read that sentence one more time. Big data. Nuclear. ASPI is at the forefront of these three mega trends. That’s all I need to spark my interest in this kind of market. Sounds like a great story. And the chart checks out, so I’m looking to buy this breakout.

​

ASPI popped to new all-time highs to start the week, but gave back almost 10% today on negative geopolitical headlines. That’s perfect because now we can bet on this being a false start and buy it on strength once the real breakout occurs. The former high around 9 is the level for me. I’m long above there with a target of 15. Short interest is currently sitting at an all-time high around 26%, and the days-to-cover ratio is an alarming 6x. I think the bears are about to get smoked on this one.

Silver, Copper, Platinum

We have been talking about a major rotation in the metals space for months, and now it’s happening in real time. Platinum is ripping... We just got long. Dr. Copper is knocking on the door of new all-time highs. We outlined the breakout and target levels to watch on Friday. And now, Silver is sprinting... It’s up more than 30% off last month’s low and just printed a fresh multi-decade high. We think this move is just getting started, and a run at the 1980 / 2011 peak near $50 is officially in play. Here’s how we're trading it. Here is the big picture

​

This is as big as it gets. Silver has been capped near $50 for almost five decades. This level triggered two of the most spectacular crashes in commodity history, in 1980 and 2011. But this setup looks entirely different. Instead of a vertical blowoff, price has spent years grinding higher through a massive accumulation pattern. We’re not looking for another parabolic spike. We’re looking for a sustained move to new all-time highs. A generational base breakout in Silver futures will ensue if and when this base resolves.

The message of PM's and commodities is that It is dawning on policymakers their only options are crush Entitlements, crush Rates (aka devalue the USD and re-accelerate inflation), crush Defense, and/or crush USTs relative to NGDP.

In the end, the US fiscal and debt situation will likely resolve itself via the path of least resistance, the same path Israel used in the 1980s to get out of a similar situation, the US in the 1950's and every other government in history. Inflate it away.

If US policymakers were honest about the budget they'd say: "The only way we can cut $1.3T from the US deficit is by cutting rates to 0% and issuing all debt in T-Bills. This will cause high inflation for a time but will also lower the USD to boost reshoring."

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

For the first time in 20 years, the board of the UN's nuclear watchdog formally declared that Iran is in breach of its nuclear non-proliferation obligations.

• Iran responded by immediately vowing to establish a new uranium enrichment facility.

Why it matters: Tensions are soaring in the Middle East over the possibility that Israel could strike Iran's nuclear facilities, which could lead to retaliatory missile attacks against American bases, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.

• The U.S. is evacuating nonessential staff from its Baghdad embassy and family members of military personnel from several bases in the Gulf.
• The State Department has restricted travel for U.S. government employees inside Israel.

Trump told reporters last night that the U.S. personnel were being moved out of the region because it "could be a dangerous place. We'll see what happens."

• When asked what could bring tensions down, Trump stressed: Iran "can't have a nuclear weapon — we're not going to allow them."

The U.S. government produces vast quantities of data about what's happening in every corner of the economy. Its ability to do so is facing threats, both from long-running challenges and the impact of Trump administration policies. The big picture: The agencies that carry out the survey work and other data collection underlying GDP, employment, inflation, and other federal statistics are facing longstanding funding strains, falling survey response rates, and now further federal cutbacks. There's no evidence that the reliability of the major data points — the ones that drive Wall Street swings and are relied upon by policymakers — is in question. But signs of tension are emerging. State of play: This spring, the Bureau of Labor Statistics suspended data collection for the Consumer Price Index in three midsize cities (Lincoln, Nebraska; Provo, Utah; and Buffalo, New York). It also eliminated the calculation of 350 subindexes that are part of the Producer Price Index. In March, the administration shuttered two outside advisory panels of experts: the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee and the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. Jobs involving survey work and other data collection tend to have high turnover, so a federal hiring freeze means staffing strains are just due to normal attrition, former officials said. By the numbers: According to a report by the American Statistical Association last year, flagging long-running challenges with collecting economic and other stats, the BLS budget has fallen 19% in inflation-adjusted terms since 2009. President Trump's 2026 budget proposal cuts the BLS budget by another 8%. What they're saying: "They're doing things like reducing the granularity of some of their programs," Erica Groshen, a former BLS commissioner, tells our colleague Emily Peck. "They have fewer resources to throw at keeping response rates up," says Groshen, now at the Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations. Of note: The administration also proposes merging the BLS (part of the Labor Department) and the BEA and Census (both part of Commerce) into a single statistics agency. There is some merit to the idea, former officials said. "There are good reasons to do it," Jed Kolko, a former undersecretary for economic affairs at the Commerce Department, tells Axios. "If you were to design the system from scratch, you would probably have a statistical department that includes most or all of the statistical agencies within the federal government." That assumes that the combined agency would not be more vulnerable to major funding cuts or political meddling. "What consolidation would mean for resourcing and independence matters more than the abstract org chart question of 'is it rational for them to be together or not?'" Kolko says.

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Axios Visuals Wholesale price inflation was benign for yet another month in May, following yesterday's better-than-expected consumer price data. Why it matters: The Producer Price Index, which tracks wholesale prices, is closely watched for signs of trade policy impact on input costs that might ultimately be borne by the consumer. By the numbers: PPI rose just 0.1% last month, after an outright drop in April. The index rose 2.6% for the 12 months ending in May, ticking up slightly from the 2.5% the prior month. Higher margins for vehicle and machinery wholesale — which jumped almost 3% in May alone — were primarily responsible for the 0.1% increase in the services sector. Goods sector prices rose 0.2% in May, thanks to rising costs for tobacco products and roasted coffee. The intrigue: While inflation was mild in aggregate, there might be early hints that tariffs are raising the costs of raw materials. In the 12 months ending in May, materials used in production rose by 1.9% — the most in two years. The Labor Department said a sharp jump (by almost 5%) in prices for certain metals — including aluminum — was the "major factor" that pushed up an overall index tracking inputs used to manufacture processed goods. That might be a result of aluminum tariffs, which were hiked to 25% from 10% in March. Those tariffs were doubled to 50% last week. The sub-index of a broad category of non-iron metals can be volatile: It rose by 6% in March before prices fell by half as much in April. What to watch: The cooler wholesale inflation bodes well for the Federal Reserve's go-to inflation gauge, due out later this month. Components of PPI feed into that measure's calculation. With PPI in hand, economists estimate that — excluding food and energy costs — the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose just 0.1% in May, matching the previous month's pace.

From Strazza

These massive tops that have been appearing in Energy Sector Indexes and their Industry Group Indexes are not completing and resolving lower. Do you know why? Because they aren't tops at all. In fact, with new multi-year highs in short interest in these stocks, our bet is that all of the shorts are wrong, and they're about to get squeezed out of these names. Look at the failed breakdowns in Crude Oil Futures as well as in Oil & Gas Exploration and Production:

​

So the question is now which names to own to participate in upside in Energy. There are a bunch of opportunities out there, and they're all listed right on our Trade Ideas page. But here's one that may not be on your radar. This stock is from Norway and is finding support right at the 61.8% retracement of the entire 2020-2022 rally.

​

This is the Exxon Mobil of Norway and it trades right here on U.S. Exchanges. We wanted to highlight this type of name, to reiterrate that there aren't just smaller companies in the Energy space that can make big moves. There are monsters out there, in the U.S. and abroad, to take advantage of a new leg higher in Energy.

Meta Platforms (META) stock currently trades about 6% below the February 2025 highs. However, options activity suggests investors believe the stock has more room to run.

• The June 4 Barchart Unusual Stock Options Activity Report showed more than 6,200 put option contracts traded in weekly Meta stock options for the $677.50 strike price.
• That’s over 59 times the previous open interest at that strike, a sign of heightened institutional activity and potentially bullish sentiment.
• Meta recently posted strong Q1 results, supported by higher operating cash flow (OCF) margins. If it can sustain or expand those margins in the months ahead, the stock could move higher from current levels, says Barchart columnist Mark Hake.
• 54 analysts in coverage have price targets as high as $935 for Meta stock, which is rated "Strong Buy" on average.

I’m jumping on with @Sam_Gatlin to dig into the short interest piling up in the gold mining sector—and what it could mean for the second half of 2025.

​

​

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Oil News:

Friday, June 13th, 2025

The geopolitical risk premium is back, with Israel’s strikes on Iran bringing ICE Brent futures to $75 per barrel in a world where OPEC+ continues to unwind its production cuts and global demand is decelerating due to Donald Trump’s tariff wars. Whilst oil infrastructure was not damaged in Israel’s strikes, the anticipation of Iran’s retaliation is already sending ripples across the oil industry, with the Red Sea becoming a target again and Israel’s gas fields pre-emptively halting production ahead of the weekend.

Israel’s Attack on Iran Marks Largest Daily Jump in Three Years. Israel’s attack on Iran sent crude prices to their highest in five months, stoking fears that further escalation would impede navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway transiting a fifth of global oil consumption, some 19 million b/d of crude and products.

Egypt Clinches Monster LNG Deal. The government of Egypt has reachedagreements with global traders Saudi Aramco, Trafigura, Vitol and Shell for up to 160 cargoes of LNG, covering the needs of the North African country for H2 2025 and next year, with premiums of $0.70-0.75 per mmBtu above TTF.

Canada Plans New Pipeline to the Pacific. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith will be proposing a new crude pipeline route from Alberta to the Port of Prince Rupert in British Columbia to the Canadian government, currently gauging private companies’ appetite for the mulled 1 million b/d conduit.

Guyana to Mark First Oil From Yellowtail Soon. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) expects to load its first oil cargo the Guyana’s fourth production unit in August-September, with the grade produced at the Yellowtail and Redtail fields called ‘Golden Arrowhead’ and being lighter than other Guyanese grades.


India Imports Record Russian Crude Oil. India is poised to hit a new all-time high after ratcheting up imports of Russian crude, importing over 2.2 million b/d in the first two weeks of June, equivalent to 46% of the South Asian country’s total needs, as Russian grades still trade below the price cap.

ADNOC Mulls Takeover Targets. ADNOC, the national oil company of the UAE, is reportedly mulling the potential acquisition of Australia’s upstream firm Santos (ASX:STO) whilst concurrently looking at BP’s (NYSE:BP) natural gas assets, some of which might be up for grabs as the UK major deleverages.

Algeria Has Had Enough of Being a Producer. Following the path charted by Middle Eastern national oil companies, Algeria has allocated $7 billion in refinery investmentsfor the next five years, including a new refinery in Hassi Messaoud, a new naphtha cracker in Arzew and a new fuel oil cracking unit in Skikda.


EPA Disappoints US Biodiesel Producers. The US Environmental Protection Agency is widely expected to propose lower-than-expected biofuel blending requirements for 2026 and 2027, rejecting the 5.25-billion-gallon demand of biodiesel producers, a huge jump from this year’s 5.25 billion gallons.

The Citgo Drama Will Never End. A US judge in Delaware extended the schedule for the auctioning of Citgo’s shares to August 18, marking yet another hiccup in the eight-year court case as investment firm Red Tree and other bidders are expected to submit improved offers for the refiner’s asset by mid-June.

EU Offers to Subsidize SAF. With sustainable aviation fuel still pricing $1,000 per metric tonne above conventional jet fuel, the European Union offered to subsidizesome 200 million litres of SAF to help airline carriers meet the EU’s own stringent mandates as Brussels’ quota rises to 6% by 2030.


US Oil Will Do the Unthinkable in 2026. According to the EIA’s updated Short-Term Energy Outlook report, US crude oil production will decline next year and mark its first annual dip since the COVID-19 impact of 2021, expecting 13.37 million b/d in 2026 after an average of 13.42 million b/d this year.

Not Every LNG Facility Needs to be Built. US natural gas developer Venture Global (NYSE:VG) withdrew its application for the proposed 24 mtpa Delta LNG facility in Louisiana, instead focusing on the 18 mtpa Plaquemines Expansion Project which already saw a preliminary regulatory nod from the FERC.

Texas Drilling Slowdown Becomes Reality. Drilling permits for new oil and natural gas wells in Texas dropped by 34% in May to 504, down from 759 in the same month last year, with oil-prolific Midland seeing the largest decline, whilst natural gas permits remained roughly stagnant at 40 permits.

US Carmakers Struggle to Secure Rare Earths. US carmaker Ford (NYSE:F) announced that it was forced to idle production at its Chicago plant producing the Explorer SUV as inventories of rare earth components were ‘day to day’, signalling that potentially other sites could be shut down soon, too.


From JC;


Crude Oil and Energy stocks are ripping higher this week.

In the news, they might tell you it's because of a war somewhere, or some kind of turmoil in the Middle East.

As usual, I think everybody's wrong.

Some kind of war? That's an always thing.

Turmoil in the Middle East? What else is new?

Let's talk about what's actually happening.

Make Friends With This Trend​

When it comes to the market, there's a lot we as investors just don't know.

So, one of the things I really like to do is to start with the things we do know.

First of all, asset prices trend.

When an asset is rising in price, there is a much higher likelihood the asset will continue to rise in price rather than completely reversing and heading in the opposite direction.

We know this. We have the data. It's just math.

Here's something else that we know: Commodity Supercyles don't last for just a couple of years. They last for decades.

The first one to go is Gold.

Gold was breaking out to new all-time highs when priced in every currency in the world.

Last year, prices finally broke out in U.S. Dollar terms, and we've been seeing new all-time highs every single quarter since.

But don't miss Copper hitting new all-time highs this year as well:



First Gold moves. Then Copper goes.

Which major Commodity and contributor to the Supercycle is next?

Crude Oil.

With historic short positions in Oil & Gas Services and Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, should we be surprised short sellers are getting squeezed?



It's nasty out there. And they deserve everything they have coming to them.

Short sellers in Energy overstayed their welcome.

And now they're suffering the consequences.

Americans Don't Own Energy​

One thing I really like about this Energy trade is Americans simply don't own it.

That's why we've been increasing our Energy exposure over the past few weeks, buying more Energy stocks, and options.

We know the short-sellers have been all over this.

But let's put aside those "sophisticated" investors for a minute.

Your everyday regular American investor simply does not own Energy.

And when we find vulnerabilities like this, we want to take advantage.

Remember, it's not our problem that all these Americans own way too much Technology and don't own any Energy.

The question we want to ask is, what would hurt the American investor the most? What would cause the most pain?

Because that's where we want to be.

In my estimation, it's in Energy.

Investors who own the S&P 500 are only getting 3% exposure to Energy, near a historic low weighting for this benchmark index.

Investors who own the Dow Jones Industrial Average are actually getting less than 2% Energy.

Remember, they kicked Exxon Mobil (XOM) out of the Dow a few years ago, just before the stock went on to triple in price.

And I think this move is just getting started.



And if investors own the Nasdaq100 through the $QQQ ETF, which many do, they have 0% exposure to Energy.

Investors are vulnerable.

The worst thing that could happen to them is a spike in Oil prices and a historic rally in Energy stocks.

So that's what we're betting on.

Stay sharp,





jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Strazza


Last week, while most traders were still snoozing on energy…



I was loading up on oil.



Crude had been quietly coiling just below a key support level — no breakdown, no panic, just tension building.


That’s the kind of setup I love — and it’s exactly the kind of move we stalk every day inside Breakout Multiplier.



So I bought the $USO 7/18 $77 calls for a buck per contract.


Five days later, I locked in a 128% gain on half and let the rest ride.



Then came the fireworks.



Overnight, Israel launched strikes against Iran — and crude oil ripped higher, logging its biggest one-day gain in over five years.



Now?


Those USO calls are up 625%.



We didn’t react to the headlines — we anticipated the move.



That’s what we do inside Breakout Multiplier.


We focus on clean technical setups before the crowd notices. And when they start to move, we get aggressive.

Let’s get one thing straight… I’m not some sort of defense industry perma bull. Trust me, those people exist. They hang out in the same circles as the ‘end-of-days’ folks, national debt doomers, and gold bugs. It’s just not for me. I’m an optimist. However, I’m also a good old-fashioned trend follower. And these stocks have taken on a new leadership role, so we’ve been buying them. Here is Aerospace & Defense relative to the S&P 500:

​

This base breakout is in the books, and the path of least resistance is now higher for this ratio. All that means is expect more outperformance from these stocks over longer timeframes. But I’m most interested in making money right now. This week, this month, this quarter. And as I flipped through the A&D components today, there was one chart that I just couldn’t ignore. Here it is. I’m trading this tactical reversal pattern in Lockheed Martin $LMT:

​

This is one of the largest defense companies in the world, with a market cap of over $100B, and it has largely escaped the rally in Aerospace stocks this year. For reference, the iShares Aerospace ETF is up almost 40% from its April lows. Meanwhile, LMT is up a little over 10%. And the underperformance here is nothing new. LMT is trading at its lowest level since 2013 relative to its peer group. But with the stock looking poised to rip higher out of this base, I think that is about to change… at least over the short term– and that’s all that matters for this trade. Here’s how I’m playing it: I jumped the entry today on a break of the VWAP from last year’s all-time high. It comes in around 480. This dynamic resistance level has halted advances in LMT several times over the last three months. I plan to use the 38% retracement of the recent decline as confirmation. That will happen on a break of 495, and then I’ll add the second half of my common stock position. However, I think this base is too good not to add a little leverage to. With the common stock, I’m basically risking about 2.5% with a potential reward of 25%. My stop is at today’s low, and my target is at the all-time highs of about 618. That's a 10x risk/reward ratio. But the upside doesn’t excite me enough, so I’m buying some near-the-money, short-dated calls as well. I’m using the July monthly $520 calls. Some follow-through out of this base should put them in-the-money in no time. On the other hand, if we roll over next week, I’ll be out on a close below 473. I don’t imagine my price target will be achieved before expiration, but it doesn’t need to be. As long as LMT is on that path, this trade should pay very well.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Weekly summary:







jog on
duc