GreatPig said:Seems like the XAO is moving up a well defined channel now, since the bull run started in early '03.
That puts the bottom at just under 5400 right now.
Cheers,
GP
Unless the States implodes then I think the market might keep going after this correction. Too much money floating about, Future Fund, profits still going up, Baby Boombers selling houses.....Hopefully the market can keep going until China starts consuming the majority of it's own trinkets and doesn't realy on the US consumer. Few years off yet perhaps.nizar said:Yeah i think that trendline is significant.
Below 5400 and it could be all over.
Yes, lagging indicator which I use to confirm price action as many people might do. Combined with other indicators, and the price action we get a clearer picture. Sometimes. My point in the above was that there are a few indicators, plus the price reaching a support level that would lead to a reasonable conclusion that 5700 might be support, and there may be a rebound from here.Magdoran said:This is the problem with lagging indicator styles, and a real problem with high momentum bearish moves trying to use moving average/oscillators to calculate when and where the bullish counter tends are going to come for re-entry short, or for when to take profits when short.
The conventional use of this kind of approach in a classic ending diagonal pattern just doesn’t work, simply because these tools were specifically designed for gentler (bullish) markets. If you try to use these without understanding their limitations it may signal long entries in the middle of a fast move down - not what you want.
So RSI, stochastics, MACD, Bollinger bands etc are susceptible to high momentum bearish moves because they are lagging way too much, especially in fast moves based on fear. The price action and pattern I have found is a far better indication of probability – retracement tools can be beneficial used in conjunction with the pattern of trend and the price bars and volume. But the rationale behind bullish conventional thinking about volume is I believe an error. The underlying can accelerate down on very little volume. The lack of buyers can be just as powerful as an abundance of sellers. Get both and you have a capitulation move in the making.
Make no mistake about it, this is a fast move down. Just go back to the corrections in the past and look at the chart. Note the bullish counter trends and what they look like. They will come in this campaign, and may appear quite strong and sharp, but these represent SELLING opportunities currently from where I sit.
When obvious support is hit and a bounce occurs, this can often be a bull trap, and once the counter trend is done, the bearish drive may well continue with a vengeance.
Regards,
Magdoran
kennas said:I estimate this to end at 5450 ish support.
Just looking at the chart there Kennas, I'm thinking 5650 is more likely to be support. Thus, lining it up quite well with what some people have predicted (~5260 [can't find where I read it right now]) as the 'bottom' in this particular move.kennas said:Yes, lagging indicator which I use to confirm price action as many people might do. Combined with other indicators, and the price action we get a clearer picture. Sometimes. My point in the above was that there are a few indicators, plus the price reaching a support level that would lead to a reasonable conclusion that 5700 might be support, and there may be a rebound from here.
Totally agree with a counter trend. Investors may think they have seen a bottom and start picking up 'bargains', only to see then next fall. Wave C perhaps. As I've said, I estimate this to end at 5450 ish support.
And unless we see some stability/ recovery over the next night or two, capitulation is what we will get I think.magdoran said:So RSI, stochastics, MACD, Bollinger bands etc are susceptible to high momentum bearish moves because they are lagging way too much, especially in fast moves based on fear. The price action and pattern I have found is a far better indication of probability – retracement tools can be beneficial used in conjunction with the pattern of trend and the price bars and volume. But the rationale behind bullish conventional thinking about volume is I believe an error. The underlying can accelerate down on very little volume. The lack of buyers can be just as powerful as an abundance of sellers. Get both and you have a capitulation move in the making.
Yep, I agree, 5650 ish. I did have this posted a while ago, not sure why I've moved it up to 5700. Maybe just approximating. I'm not saying it will turn on an exact price, but somewhere around this level. Plus or minus a few points.chops_a_must said:Just looking at the chart there Kennas, I'm thinking 5650 is more likely to be support.
And unless we see some stability/ recovery over the next night or two, capitulation is what we will get I think.
Hello Kennas,kennas said:Yep, I agree, 5650 ish. I did have this posted a while ago, not sure why I've moved it up to 5700. Maybe just approximating. I'm not saying it will turn on an exact price, but somewhere around this level. Plus or minus a few points.
Just a probability, of course. There's too many factors at play to give a definitive, precise answer to the markets movements.
Mag seems to have found a way though.
If you're there Mag, can you refer me to the thread and time that you were calling the 'crash', and the price targets you nominated. Did you also give a target price for the drop? Cheers.
Sorry, the forecast was on the Trading the SPI Gann thread, but that was time based...kennas said:Yep, I agree, 5650 ish. I did have this posted a while ago, not sure why I've moved it up to 5700. Maybe just approximating. I'm not saying it will turn on an exact price, but somewhere around this level. Plus or minus a few points.
Just a probability, of course. There's too many factors at play to give a definitive, precise answer to the markets movements.
Mag seems to have found a way though.
If you're there Mag, can you refer me to the thread and time that you were calling the 'crash', and the price targets you nominated. Did you also give a target price for the drop? Cheers.
Ok, just pulled out my maximum crash target as an example by 18 July based on the cycle into the high, hence it is totally unconfirmed: 4178.48.kennas said:Yep, I agree, 5650 ish. I did have this posted a while ago, not sure why I've moved it up to 5700. Maybe just approximating. I'm not saying it will turn on an exact price, but somewhere around this level. Plus or minus a few points.
Just a probability, of course. There's too many factors at play to give a definitive, precise answer to the markets movements.
Mag seems to have found a way though.
If you're there Mag, can you refer me to the thread and time that you were calling the 'crash', and the price targets you nominated. Did you also give a target price for the drop? Cheers.
kennas said:Well, 5660 at the moment which is close enough to 5650 ish support. Might have another bad day, but I think a pause here could happen. I've gone though quite a few of the top 20 stocks and they are all reaching or just breaching support lines. I suppose this might be a test of this 'support level' theory. Stochastics are off the chart.
I'm expecting something like the May correction here.
kennas said:With weight of pressure down on the XAO, the 5650 support level may be bypassed for the next support at 5450 at this rate.
Kennas,kennas said:With weight of pressure down on the XAO, the 5650 support level may be bypassed for the next support at 5450 at this rate.
Hi Mags, just previous highs and lows. Areas of conjestion. Previous highs should be support.Magdoran said:Kennas,
How are you generating your “support” targets in price? What method are you using? Can you project a time point too, or is this linear horizontal support via a retracement method, or are you using some kind of moving average?
Can you project fairly precise areas of support consistently? If you’re trading this short, where will you take profits (partial or full)? Are you looking to play the bullish counter trend to?
Regards
Magdoran
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