Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[finicky]

Hey @Craton is that you on the left?

 

[Craton]

Hey @Craton is that you on the left?

View attachment 207440

An original "cockroach" huh...

 

[Craton]

read his book maybe....
or his recent speech to the Europeans?

Yep, and interpreted through my own views.

 

[Knobby22]

They don't look too smart to me.

For the first time in seven years, India’s prime minister is in China. Narendra Modi reportedly is refusing to accept phone calls from Donald Trump. Instead, he’s lending India’s considerable weight to Xi Jinping’s claim to be leading the creation of a new world order.

The US had promised to negotiate over the tariffs. But when Delhi refused to support Trump’s fetish to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, the Americans cancelled the negotiations.

Trump says he’s determined to weaken China. He’s doing the opposite

The world’s two most populous nations are restoring relations. It’s another strategic win for Xi Jinping and another diplomatic own goal by Donald Trump.

www.theage.com.au

 

[finicky]

Modi will probably crack imo. The affinities between Russia, China and India are non-existent outside a resentment of the west and a desire to subordinate it. In fact they all have territorial disputes and any economical cooperation is purely cynical - they are not real allies, let alone friends.
Trump is the first in recent times to really assert U.S economic power and stop kowtowing to these states. Either Modi or someone after him will realise India's interest will be best placed with capitalist democratic U.S. Otherwise Trump is the only president perceptive and bold enough to use tariffs and other measures to penalise flakey India. I hope he does the same to Australia under Albanese/Wong, the worst politicians Australians have ever elected to high office. We currently don't deserve the American alliance.

 

[finicky]

@Knobby22 you still read and reference 'The Age'? It's chockers with feminists and left activists last I saw - apeing U.S opinionators like NYT and WAPO

 

[Antirnator]

So are people for India supporting Russia's war in Ukraine or against it, I wish they would make up their minds??

The I hate Trump so I will contradict my previous opinions is getting tiresome.

India going to China is performative bc they hate each other, it is an empty threat.

 

[Knobby22]

@Knobby22 you still read and reference 'The Age'? It's chockers with feminists and left activists last I saw - apeing U.S opinionators like NYT and WAPO

Which bit is not true? I am with you though that India won't trust China, but they won't trust USA also.
Diplomacy needs to be used. They won't fawn over Trump like Starmer.

 

[over9k]

aaaand gold breaks a new all time high of 3500usd/ounce

 

[finicky]

Which bit is not true?

Good point but I'd have to read an Age article.

 

[over9k]

Really gets the noggin joggin

 

[Knobby22]

View attachment 207502

Really gets the noggin joggin

Getting scary

 

[Dona Ferentes]

They don't look too smart to me.
For the first time in seven years, India’s prime minister is in China. Narendra Modi reportedly is refusing to accept phone calls from Donald Trump. Instead, he’s lending India’s considerable weight to Xi Jinping’s claim to be leading the creation of a new world order.

The US had promised to negotiate over the tariffs. But when Delhi refused to support Trump’s fetish to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, the Americans cancelled the negotiations.

Trump says he’s determined to weaken China. He’s doing the opposite

The world’s two most populous nations are restoring relations. It’s another strategic win for Xi Jinping and another diplomatic own goal by Donald Trump.

www.theage.com.au

last time I looked

"Today is the 80th anniversary of Japan formally surrendering, ending the Second World War.The Instrument of Surrender was signed in front of Nimitz and MacArthur aboard the USS Missouri in Tokyo Bay."

the B team gathered in Peking (don't mention the Chinag Kai Chek forces that did the hard work). Historical revisionist Xi is hard are work.

Putin clung to Modi, buyer of last resort of oil. But, Elsewhere

Saudi Arabia and Iraq have stopped supplying oil to India’s Nayara Energy refinery, controlled by Rosneft, due to EU sanctions.The refinery typically received around 3 million barrels per month from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, but deliveries dropped to zero in August. Nayara processes about 8% of India’s total oil and has already reduced capacity at its Vadinar plant to 70–80% amid sales difficulties.For fuel exports, the company is now forced to rely on the “shadow fleet,” as major shipping firms have refused to cooperate.

Fat Boy turned up in the armoured train.

 

[over9k]

I keep harping on about the debt chicken for a reason.

 

[over9k]

 

[over9k]

Modi will probably crack imo. The affinities between Russia, China and India are non-existent outside a resentment of the west and a desire to subordinate it. In fact they all have territorial disputes and any economical cooperation is purely cynical - they are not real allies, let alone friends.

This. They're only "friends" of convenience, nothing more. Effectively a cartel - don't like one another but have realised it's in their own best interests to work together (for now).

It's not like if the ukrainians start turning the tide that india is going to come to russia's rescue or something

 

[over9k]

They're going to inflate no matter who the president is. Any difference will just be in the detail and what's said about it. The debt's so large there isn't really any alternative.

To some extent, but they can't just inflate it away, that's proven to be political suicide. It's going to be a three pronged approach of inflation/taxes/spending cuts IMO, basically just enough pain of each type to be bearable.

The calls to abolish negative gearing and the capital gains discount here in order to bring house prices down might actually end up getting passed not to bring house prices down but to increase government tax revenue.

Just like with tariffs, it'll be the ostensible reason but not the real one

 

[farmerge]

This. They're only "friends" of convenience, nothing more. Effectively a cartel - don't like one another but have realised it's in their own best interests to work together (for now).

It's not like if the ukrainians start turning the tide that india is going to come to russia's rescue or something

Who needs enemies when there are "friends" like these 3.
Couldn't trust any of them any further than they could be kicked with a broken foot.

 

[over9k]

Part three of all of this is that I've only covered national/federal government debts and bonds, we haven't even started on state (or equivalent) government fiscal positions yet.

The victorian government, for example, is practically bankrupt:

Which means that some very difficult decisions are going to have to be made re: what's being cut from where:




As we can see, healthcare is already the single largest expenditure and with the simple demographics of boomers all hitting their twilight years that number can be expected to balloon significantly over the next few years/election cycles.

 

[farmerge]

Part three of all of this is that I've only covered national/federal government debts and bonds, we haven't even started on state (or equivalent) government fiscal positions yet.

The victorian government, for example, is practically bankrupt:
View attachment 207598View attachment 207597View attachment 207596View attachment 207595
Which means that some very difficult decisions are going to have to be made re: what's being cut from where:


View attachment 207599

As we can see, healthcare is already the single largest expenditure and with the simple demographics of boomers all hitting their twilight years that number can be expected to balloon significantly over the next few years/election cycles.

Certainly happy not to be living in the Garden State.