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Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

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Trump fired the Head of Statistics because he didn't like the employment figures. Just not good enough he said.
So with a new friendlier zrse licker in place we can look forward to a far more rosy economic picture.:D

For example..

500 Million New Jobs Added to US Economy, After Trump Fires Statistics Chief​


Donald-Trump-2_ss_Joshua-Sukoff.jpg
Joshua Sukoff/Shutterstock



Half a billion new jobs were created in the US in July, according to figures released since Donald Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer.

The unemployment rate plummeted from 4.1% to -200%, the biggest fall since records began. It is believed to be the first time firing someone has increased employment numbers.

Trump says the positive economic news is vindication of his decision to sack the stats chief, noting that everyone who wants a job now has one, or in many cases two. “There are more jobs in America now than there are in China,” he said.

Georgia man Brett Camelina, who has been looking for work since he was laid off from his job last year, said he was thrilled to hear the official unemployment rate had fallen below zero. “I’ll be able to put food on the table now and maybe even save up for a holiday,” he said.

Other metrics for the US economy were also impressive. GDP growth was recorded at a healthy 47% – coincidentally mirroring Trump’s Presidential number – while inflation dropped to zero. Worldwide, only North Korea had better economic data for the month of July.

theshovel.com.au

500 Million New Jobs Added to US Economy, After Trump Fires Statistics Chief — The Shovel

Other metrics for the US economy were also impressive. GDP growth was recorded at a healthy 47%, while inflation dropped to zero. Only North Korea had better economic data for the month.
theshovel.com.au theshovel.com.au
 
basilio said:
Trump fired the Head of Statistics because he didn't like the employment figures. Just not good enough he said.
So with a new friendlier zrse licker in place we can look forward to a far more rosy economic picture.:D

For example..

500 Million New Jobs Added to US Economy, After Trump Fires Statistics Chief​


View attachment 206844
Joshua Sukoff/Shutterstock



Half a billion new jobs were created in the US in July, according to figures released since Donald Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer.

The unemployment rate plummeted from 4.1% to -200%, the biggest fall since records began. It is believed to be the first time firing someone has increased employment numbers.

Trump says the positive economic news is vindication of his decision to sack the stats chief, noting that everyone who wants a job now has one, or in many cases two. “There are more jobs in America now than there are in China,” he said.

Georgia man Brett Camelina, who has been looking for work since he was laid off from his job last year, said he was thrilled to hear the official unemployment rate had fallen below zero. “I’ll be able to put food on the table now and maybe even save up for a holiday,” he said.

Other metrics for the US economy were also impressive. GDP growth was recorded at a healthy 47% – coincidentally mirroring Trump’s Presidential number – while inflation dropped to zero. Worldwide, only North Korea had better economic data for the month of July.

theshovel.com.au

500 Million New Jobs Added to US Economy, After Trump Fires Statistics Chief — The Shovel

Other metrics for the US economy were also impressive. GDP growth was recorded at a healthy 47%, while inflation dropped to zero. Only North Korea had better economic data for the month.
theshovel.com.au theshovel.com.au
Click to expand...
Wowee Houdini, super escape artist, had nothing on The Trumpet.
The Golden Haired one it seems has magically improved the lot of the American worker beyond belief with his mirrors and revolving doors
500,000 new jobs, next trick prove to the unemployed that they do actually exist.
 
farmerge said:
Wowee Houdini, super escape artist, had nothing on The Trumpet.
The Golden Haired one it seems has magically improved the lot of the American worker beyond belief with his mirrors and revolving doors
500,000 new jobs, next trick prove to the unemployed that they do actually exist.
Click to expand...
Indeed FM .. That was a satire piece I quoted... Yes I'm sure that Trump will claim at some point that there are no unemployed people - just people who don't want to work perhaps ?
 

Australia Post halts most parcel postage to US as tariff chaos hits global carriers​

In short:​

Australia Post has suspended most postage to the US ahead of new tariffs on low-value parcels, with businesses wanting to ship to American customers now unable to use the government-owned carrier.

Some online retailers had pre-empted issues with sending goods to the US and stopped shipping there in recent weeks, as global postal services described "chaos".
 
Is anyone getting 2008 gfc bubble vibes from albos bring forward first home buyers scheme?? This time the government underwrites the risk!
 
CanOz said:
Is anyone getting 2008 gfc bubble vibes from albos bring forward first home buyers scheme?? This time the government underwrites the risk!
Click to expand...
Nope I am not getting those vibes. in the US people with nothing were able to buy homes, the system was corrupt - it was never going to go well.

In Australia people still need at least a job and some kind of money to buy a home- the system kinda works... It's just all rigged to push house prices up so as much as your income as possible goes to housing - as that is the only thing other than raw metals propping up the economy.
 
A weekly letter from the US, free market focused

But you know what’s worse than a central bank? Having the president set interest rates!

I’m sure everyone here is aware of what Trump has been doing to the Fed:
  • Haranguing Powell
  • Digging up dirt on governors and threatening to fire them
  • Explicitly commenting on interest rates
  • Threatening to sue Powell over the Fed building renovations
  • Accusing the Fed of political motivations (which actually might be true)
I mean, don’t get me wrong, it’s high time the Fed felt a little stress for its poor performance, but Trump simply wants to install his own people and set rates to practically zero.

The consequences of this?
  • Maybe a lot of inflation
  • Maybe higher stocks
  • Definitely higher gold
  • Maybe higher commodity prices
  • Maybe a steeper yield curve
Jared Dillian
 
I liked that in a recent article on" feds should remain independent" and not be like Turkey or Argentina, they took these 2 and not China and Russia for examples...
Doesn't it make sense as well that the rates should be matched to an economic policy?
And are they not twisted actually here in Australia and before Trump in the US...
IMHO, the so called independence of these federal banks, is usually a mascarade.
What did the ALP get to give $1.2b to the RBA ?
Biden economics, etc
Nicely timed rate cuts or waiting too long to raise based on political agendas.
Let politicians be responsible of their acts..
My 2c
And i know an independent money supply would be great in a nice ideal world.....
 
The really big deal in the US is the removal of De Minimas rule which allowed small imports duty free. These were the life blood of thousands of small businesses across the US. The economic consequences will knock out hundreds of these Mum and dad business.


 
GzOuPMCW0AAJCJ6.png

From twitter:

This is 100% correct. Let me explain how this happened. Might be a bit of a long post but I think worth a read.

Firstly, people have no idea how bad off-shoring has gotten. Especially our government. Trump has been great on protecting the blue collar American worker but so far he is failing miserably at protecting the white collar American worker. He doesn't understand the tech world, it's just not his industry, and the people he has in his orbit who do understand the industry are enemies at worst and neutral at best. Drastic intervention needs to happen but right now they're all asleep at the wheel.

So how did this happen? One thing you need to understand about Silicon Valley is it's always been a mix of cowboys and nerds. Which is actually pretty ideal if you want to create an environment that maximizes innovation. But the risk you take with this kind of wild west environment is you are way more susceptible to corruption. Oversight is minimal and you are basically left to police yourselves.

Now this worked wonderfully when Silicon Valley was like 90% White American nerds and cowboys who loved technology and just wanted to build cool innovative ****. It's one of the great business stories of our age. But as with every other part of society if you lose that base of moral, honorable and homogenous people, corruption and ethnic or political nepotism creeps in.

This started to happen to Silicon Valley in Obama's second term. It dovetailed pretty well with the rise of woke. Silicon Valley companies like Google, Twitter, and others really lead the charge on the woke revolution in the corporate world. One of the advantages (or disadvantages in this case) of the wild west is you can move much quicker.

So Google et al started really ramping up the political and ethnic nepotism. The White men who built Silicon Valley were suddenly public enemy number 1 and the only way for them to absolve themselves of this original sin was to join the color revolution and point the finger at someone else.

Basically overnight the culture inside these companies became extremely far left and a lot less White. The discrimination against straight White men in hiring, promotions and work environment, was some of the worst civil rights violations in the history of our country (a crime that not a single person or company has paid for by the way.) You get the point, I'm sure most of you remember this era anyways.

While this was happening Silicon Valley is enjoying years of free-flowing capital. It was never easier to raise money. This led the industry to make a fatal mistake. They assumed the money would last forever. So they hired, a lot. Their entire business model was predicated on this assumption that the money would never dry up. They turned their efficient, wild west, move fast, startup culture into a jobs program and adult day care for far-left San Francisco communists.

I had a friend at this time who was an enterprise sales guy at google. I had a client he wanted an in with so he asked me to meet him at Googleplex and chat for a bit. He took me for a little tour of the campus which that alone was insane. But what stuck with me about that visit was how I didn't see a single person working. Not one. There were laptops everywhere but not a single keystroke. Until the end of the visit.

Right before I left, we walked past an area with individual work stations. We finally found the White men (and some asians), coding away furiously, keeping the lights on.

This was the reality for most tech companies. Insane amounts of bloat sitting on top of highly productive White guys with unlimited capital to pay for all the dead weight.

There's some debate over this but the money spigot really turned off in Q1 of 2022. Since then what you've seen is the managed decline of the tech industry. As a Silicon Valley CEO if you were one of the majority of companies who over-hired during the previous decade, you were in real trouble. The business model that had been working was suddenly broken. Pockets got tight and decisions needed to be made.

The smart thing to do, the honorable thing to do, would have been to cut the dead weight. Fire the far-left gender goblins and the communists and the diversity hires, and the managerial class who contribute nothing. A perfect example of this was Elon buying twitter and firing 70% of the staff while keeping the lights on. And for most companies it didn't need to be that drastic, Twitter was one of the worst adult day cares in the entire industry.

But Silicon Valley by this time was run by idiots. Like truly stupid people. You'll see some of the usual suspects on here (*cough* Jason Calacanis.) There were some incredibly smart people too, the Marc Andreesens, the Palmer Luckeys, the Elon Musks, but they were few and far between.

So stupid people do stupid things. They kept the adult day care, kept the HR bureaucracy, and instead decided we'll just replace these expensive Americans (mostly White guys) who are keeping the lights on with indians halfway across the world. We'll get the Americans to train their replacements and we'll keep one or two to manage the team out of india.

This strategy took off like wildfire. Everyone needed to cut headcount, by this point you had a lot of major Silicon Valley companies who had transitioned their leadership away from the original founders to indian strivers who were more than happy to fire Americans en masse and hire as many co-ethnics as they could. H1B, india office, remote off-shoring, it was all on the table.

The result? The largest single case of mass immigration fraud and selling out of the American worker since the hollowing out of our manufacturing base. Which happens to be the perfect analogy because what I've coined the great tech replacement is our generations version of the factory in Detroit you relied on to put on the table being shipped off to China.

So unless the Trump admin wakes up and takes drastic action to block the off-shoring epidemic we're going to have an incredible amount of pain in the next few years. This problem will only get worse and it will be targeted at our best and brightest people. The future of our country will fail to launch unless something is done.


I could see a "wage tariff" type of law put in place that adds some kind of tax/cost to whatever you're paying someone to perform mental labour overseas, i.e you pay your indian accountant to do your books $10/hour but a 20% tariff means you must pay the government $2 per hour to do it.

I saw the first rumblings of this phenomenon before covid (mrs over9k is an accountant and their firm sends all the grunt work off to a firm in india and they then do the higher skilled stuff here once they get the grunt-work-completed files back from them) and alarm bells went off for me then.

Fact is if your job can be done by you from home it can be done by someone else in india or wherever.
 
over9k said:
View attachment 207272

From twitter:

This is 100% correct. Let me explain how this happened. Might be a bit of a long post but I think worth a read.

Firstly, people have no idea how bad off-shoring has gotten. Especially our government. Trump has been great on protecting the blue collar American worker but so far he is failing miserably at protecting the white collar American worker. He doesn't understand the tech world, it's just not his industry, and the people he has in his orbit who do understand the industry are enemies at worst and neutral at best. Drastic intervention needs to happen but right now they're all asleep at the wheel.

So how did this happen? One thing you need to understand about Silicon Valley is it's always been a mix of cowboys and nerds. Which is actually pretty ideal if you want to create an environment that maximizes innovation. But the risk you take with this kind of wild west environment is you are way more susceptible to corruption. Oversight is minimal and you are basically left to police yourselves.

Now this worked wonderfully when Silicon Valley was like 90% White American nerds and cowboys who loved technology and just wanted to build cool innovative ****. It's one of the great business stories of our age. But as with every other part of society if you lose that base of moral, honorable and homogenous people, corruption and ethnic or political nepotism creeps in.

This started to happen to Silicon Valley in Obama's second term. It dovetailed pretty well with the rise of woke. Silicon Valley companies like Google, Twitter, and others really lead the charge on the woke revolution in the corporate world. One of the advantages (or disadvantages in this case) of the wild west is you can move much quicker.

So Google et al started really ramping up the political and ethnic nepotism. The White men who built Silicon Valley were suddenly public enemy number 1 and the only way for them to absolve themselves of this original sin was to join the color revolution and point the finger at someone else.

Basically overnight the culture inside these companies became extremely far left and a lot less White. The discrimination against straight White men in hiring, promotions and work environment, was some of the worst civil rights violations in the history of our country (a crime that not a single person or company has paid for by the way.) You get the point, I'm sure most of you remember this era anyways.

While this was happening Silicon Valley is enjoying years of free-flowing capital. It was never easier to raise money. This led the industry to make a fatal mistake. They assumed the money would last forever. So they hired, a lot. Their entire business model was predicated on this assumption that the money would never dry up. They turned their efficient, wild west, move fast, startup culture into a jobs program and adult day care for far-left San Francisco communists.

I had a friend at this time who was an enterprise sales guy at google. I had a client he wanted an in with so he asked me to meet him at Googleplex and chat for a bit. He took me for a little tour of the campus which that alone was insane. But what stuck with me about that visit was how I didn't see a single person working. Not one. There were laptops everywhere but not a single keystroke. Until the end of the visit.

Right before I left, we walked past an area with individual work stations. We finally found the White men (and some asians), coding away furiously, keeping the lights on.

This was the reality for most tech companies. Insane amounts of bloat sitting on top of highly productive White guys with unlimited capital to pay for all the dead weight.

There's some debate over this but the money spigot really turned off in Q1 of 2022. Since then what you've seen is the managed decline of the tech industry. As a Silicon Valley CEO if you were one of the majority of companies who over-hired during the previous decade, you were in real trouble. The business model that had been working was suddenly broken. Pockets got tight and decisions needed to be made.

The smart thing to do, the honorable thing to do, would have been to cut the dead weight. Fire the far-left gender goblins and the communists and the diversity hires, and the managerial class who contribute nothing. A perfect example of this was Elon buying twitter and firing 70% of the staff while keeping the lights on. And for most companies it didn't need to be that drastic, Twitter was one of the worst adult day cares in the entire industry.

But Silicon Valley by this time was run by idiots. Like truly stupid people. You'll see some of the usual suspects on here (*cough* Jason Calacanis.) There were some incredibly smart people too, the Marc Andreesens, the Palmer Luckeys, the Elon Musks, but they were few and far between.

So stupid people do stupid things. They kept the adult day care, kept the HR bureaucracy, and instead decided we'll just replace these expensive Americans (mostly White guys) who are keeping the lights on with indians halfway across the world. We'll get the Americans to train their replacements and we'll keep one or two to manage the team out of india.

This strategy took off like wildfire. Everyone needed to cut headcount, by this point you had a lot of major Silicon Valley companies who had transitioned their leadership away from the original founders to indian strivers who were more than happy to fire Americans en masse and hire as many co-ethnics as they could. H1B, india office, remote off-shoring, it was all on the table.

The result? The largest single case of mass immigration fraud and selling out of the American worker since the hollowing out of our manufacturing base. Which happens to be the perfect analogy because what I've coined the great tech replacement is our generations version of the factory in Detroit you relied on to put on the table being shipped off to China.

So unless the Trump admin wakes up and takes drastic action to block the off-shoring epidemic we're going to have an incredible amount of pain in the next few years. This problem will only get worse and it will be targeted at our best and brightest people. The future of our country will fail to launch unless something is done.


I could see a "wage tariff" type of law put in place that adds some kind of tax/cost to whatever you're paying someone to perform mental labour overseas, i.e you pay your indian accountant to do your books $10/hour but a 20% tariff means you must pay the government $2 per hour to do it.

I saw the first rumblings of this phenomenon before covid (mrs over9k is an accountant and their firm sends all the grunt work off to a firm in india and they then do the higher skilled stuff here once they get the grunt-work-completed files back from them) and alarm bells went off for me then.

Fact is if your job can be done by you from home it can be done by someone else in india or wherever.
Click to expand...
i raised this issue a long time ago.
Being in IT, I was among the first Australian white collar to be subjected to that:
outsourcing to India while being asked to compete with salaries when a 40k engineer there was driven by a chauffeur lived in a relative mansion ,and IT companies there where paying no company tax for the first 5 or 10y from memory.
then any indian coming with a briefcase was an IT professional, mist with pathetic technical knowledge..the brightest moving obviously to the silicon valley, not Melbourne!!!
then segregation started: women first, colour , not many Aboriginals, and guess what a lot of indian workers as soon as the managers were Indians.
Indian as Indian subcontinent: might be Indian, Pakistani or Bengali .
Then the head of the Australian computer society..kind of the IT union here, moved to an Indian guy, and the next ACS was actually pushing for more it entries..no kidding, you can check.
At no time during my 20y career here has anyone mention, question this.
IBM Australia was running whole projects manned by Indians on "business trips"...
for government departments.
Even before AI, young uni IT graduates could not find jobs and moved out.
as my son entered uni, i told him: not IT.
There are solutions but ALP does not care about a few non unionised nerds, nor does the LNP want to annoy their donors.
so yes, go to the march tomorrow but we are already drowning.
And yes, if you can do WFH, Rashid or "Ben" in India or Africa , SEAsia can do this job as well, better than you fir much cheaper..and be individually better off than you....
The big wet dream of the WEF, is actually taken onboard by the West populace voluntarily..
 
over9k said:
View attachment 207272

From twitter:

This is 100% correct. Let me explain how this happened. Might be a bit of a long post but I think worth a read.

Firstly, people have no idea how bad off-shoring has gotten. Especially our government. Trump has been great on protecting the blue collar American worker but so far he is failing miserably at protecting the white collar American worker. He doesn't understand the tech world, it's just not his industry, and the people he has in his orbit who do understand the industry are enemies at worst and neutral at best. Drastic intervention needs to happen but right now they're all asleep at the wheel.

So how did this happen? One thing you need to understand about Silicon Valley is it's always been a mix of cowboys and nerds. Which is actually pretty ideal if you want to create an environment that maximizes innovation. But the risk you take with this kind of wild west environment is you are way more susceptible to corruption. Oversight is minimal and you are basically left to police yourselves.

Now this worked wonderfully when Silicon Valley was like 90% White American nerds and cowboys who loved technology and just wanted to build cool innovative ****. It's one of the great business stories of our age. But as with every other part of society if you lose that base of moral, honorable and homogenous people, corruption and ethnic or political nepotism creeps in.

This started to happen to Silicon Valley in Obama's second term. It dovetailed pretty well with the rise of woke. Silicon Valley companies like Google, Twitter, and others really lead the charge on the woke revolution in the corporate world. One of the advantages (or disadvantages in this case) of the wild west is you can move much quicker.

So Google et al started really ramping up the political and ethnic nepotism. The White men who built Silicon Valley were suddenly public enemy number 1 and the only way for them to absolve themselves of this original sin was to join the color revolution and point the finger at someone else.

Basically overnight the culture inside these companies became extremely far left and a lot less White. The discrimination against straight White men in hiring, promotions and work environment, was some of the worst civil rights violations in the history of our country (a crime that not a single person or company has paid for by the way.) You get the point, I'm sure most of you remember this era anyways.

While this was happening Silicon Valley is enjoying years of free-flowing capital. It was never easier to raise money. This led the industry to make a fatal mistake. They assumed the money would last forever. So they hired, a lot. Their entire business model was predicated on this assumption that the money would never dry up. They turned their efficient, wild west, move fast, startup culture into a jobs program and adult day care for far-left San Francisco communists.

I had a friend at this time who was an enterprise sales guy at google. I had a client he wanted an in with so he asked me to meet him at Googleplex and chat for a bit. He took me for a little tour of the campus which that alone was insane. But what stuck with me about that visit was how I didn't see a single person working. Not one. There were laptops everywhere but not a single keystroke. Until the end of the visit.

Right before I left, we walked past an area with individual work stations. We finally found the White men (and some asians), coding away furiously, keeping the lights on.

This was the reality for most tech companies. Insane amounts of bloat sitting on top of highly productive White guys with unlimited capital to pay for all the dead weight.

There's some debate over this but the money spigot really turned off in Q1 of 2022. Since then what you've seen is the managed decline of the tech industry. As a Silicon Valley CEO if you were one of the majority of companies who over-hired during the previous decade, you were in real trouble. The business model that had been working was suddenly broken. Pockets got tight and decisions needed to be made.

The smart thing to do, the honorable thing to do, would have been to cut the dead weight. Fire the far-left gender goblins and the communists and the diversity hires, and the managerial class who contribute nothing. A perfect example of this was Elon buying twitter and firing 70% of the staff while keeping the lights on. And for most companies it didn't need to be that drastic, Twitter was one of the worst adult day cares in the entire industry.

But Silicon Valley by this time was run by idiots. Like truly stupid people. You'll see some of the usual suspects on here (*cough* Jason Calacanis.) There were some incredibly smart people too, the Marc Andreesens, the Palmer Luckeys, the Elon Musks, but they were few and far between.

So stupid people do stupid things. They kept the adult day care, kept the HR bureaucracy, and instead decided we'll just replace these expensive Americans (mostly White guys) who are keeping the lights on with indians halfway across the world. We'll get the Americans to train their replacements and we'll keep one or two to manage the team out of india.

This strategy took off like wildfire. Everyone needed to cut headcount, by this point you had a lot of major Silicon Valley companies who had transitioned their leadership away from the original founders to indian strivers who were more than happy to fire Americans en masse and hire as many co-ethnics as they could. H1B, india office, remote off-shoring, it was all on the table.

The result? The largest single case of mass immigration fraud and selling out of the American worker since the hollowing out of our manufacturing base. Which happens to be the perfect analogy because what I've coined the great tech replacement is our generations version of the factory in Detroit you relied on to put on the table being shipped off to China.

So unless the Trump admin wakes up and takes drastic action to block the off-shoring epidemic we're going to have an incredible amount of pain in the next few years. This problem will only get worse and it will be targeted at our best and brightest people. The future of our country will fail to launch unless something is done.


I could see a "wage tariff" type of law put in place that adds some kind of tax/cost to whatever you're paying someone to perform mental labour overseas, i.e you pay your indian accountant to do your books $10/hour but a 20% tariff means you must pay the government $2 per hour to do it.

I saw the first rumblings of this phenomenon before covid (mrs over9k is an accountant and their firm sends all the grunt work off to a firm in india and they then do the higher skilled stuff here once they get the grunt-work-completed files back from them) and alarm bells went off for me then.

Fact is if your job can be done by you from home it can be done by someone else in india or wherever.
Click to expand...

I worked on projects 25 years ago where US companies were using Indians to write code for process control systems, they were very good.
 
over9k said:
From twitter:

This is 100% correct. Let me explain how this happened. Might be a bit of a long post but I think worth a read.
Click to expand...
Is this referring to the US tech industry?

Or is it about an awful lot of things in Australia?

Take out the specific details of company names, remove the race references, and the same scenario's played out across much of the economy.

The only saving grace is the few competent ones can generally negotiate ridiculous pay rates. :2twocents
 

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