Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[mullokintyre]

Dow futures for tonight. I wouldn't be in a hurry to buy today if you have cash available. The market could get even cheaper tomorrow.
View attachment 196982

Waiting till there is blood in the streets, rivers of it.
I will start buying when I see Berkshire easing that 300bill in cash they have sitting in the coffers.
Mick

 

[DannyB0000]

I still can't access Member Direct through Aus Super, all I get is a blank white screen which is really frustrating. Super fund servers must be down with members trying to make changes to their investments. Even if I did want to take advantage of the panic selling I can't today unlike with Commsec.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

INDUSTRY SUPER FUNDS. WE'RE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER




gg

 

[basilio]

I still can't access Member Direct through Aus Super, all I get is a blank white screen which is really frustrating. Super fund servers must be down with members trying to make changes to their investments. Even if I did want to take advantage of the panic selling I can't today unlike with Commsec.

My share trading account with Westpac is just rolling. Not sure what is happening there.

Not surprised the Super fund accounts are not showing. I don't know how the funds will deal with large requests to go into capital secure in a collapsing market
.............................................

Just came up. Market 493 points down. Just a bit of temporary pain I believe..

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

My share trading account with Westpac is just rolling. Not sure what is happening there.

Not surprised the Super fund accounts are not showing. I don't know how the funds will deal with large requests to go into capital secure in a collapsing market

They won't do anything.

They have clauses to protect themselves from investors.



gg
.

 

[TimeISmoney]

^^^ what a perceptive cartoon passed on by the leading independent thinker here. And funny too - the red tie HAHAHA, eyes, tears.
Ella Baron and the Guardian.
I too follow them both for independent analysis of the markets and the U.S economy.
What Trump and team are doing is great, surgical, had to be done (tariffs that is)
The stock market is not the economy
WAll St is punishing him because the 10% own 80% of the stock market (a figure pulled out of my arse) and tariffs hit profits by choking off access to slave labour.
Jobs for American workers and a chance in hell for U.S small businesses!
I am loving this smash of the bloated and corrupt stock market.

Ella of The Guardian
View attachment 197016

View attachment 197015

Trump's walked back and underfunded workplace laws and govt protection agencies, the US is becomming another Chinese production line.

FACT SHEET: TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, DOGE PUNISH AGENCIESINVESTIGATING ELON MUSK’S COMPANIES

 

[finicky]

Taking an axe to the bloated and corrupt bureaucracy. Who knows what their funding is really used for anyway? Trust in DOGE. What's improved for the American worker or small businesses? (rhetorical). Smash it all and reset it. Pain now, gain later.

 

[TimeISmoney]

 

[divs4ever]

Have you actually thought about what you've said?

Forcing companies to produce their goods on-shore by americans is the very purpose of the tariffs. While it increases the cost of goods it also increases the demand for american labour.

and have a few bucks extra in their pocket ( hopefully )

yes that is why i am giving Trump the benefit of my doubt

i think it is all too late , but the other policy was clearly a doom loop

now since Trump is acting ( or reacting ) be careful if extraordinary emergency powers are deployed to 'bolt-on ' on to the current initiatives .

now of course in a perfect world .. Australia would look to onshore processing and manufacturing as well , we are smaller so could build quicker ( after red/green tape is slashed )

 

[divs4ever]

Isn't it a label Frugal rock ? Changing labels on products for marketing purposes is as old as the hills.

actually compulsory for some imports as the original labels do not comply with Australian regulations , but rebranding a different maker's product can be risky

 

[divs4ever]

have been 'stocking up' for about 3 years , am worried more about inflation/supply shortages

but maybe tariffs will bite Australia as well

 

[basilio]

Alan Kohler, as usual, sums up the madness that lies behind the end of the USA. The headline is apt. The details important.

America is having a break with reality on tariffs. The world will move on to a new order​

By Alan Kohler

• Topic:World Politics

9h ago9 hours ago


Anti-Trump protests erupt in the US and around the world.

Link copied

The Australian government after May 3 will no doubt want to try to negotiate with the Trump administration about our 10 per cent tariff, but they might be better off to just work around it and move on.

The American age is coming to an end after 80 years and nine months and will be replaced by something that may be better.
We don't yet know what that new world looks like, and the journey there is likely to be painful, especially for America.

But the train has left the station — not just because of the tariffs unveiled on April 2, but because Donald Trump has smashed the global system of alliances and co-operation, led by the United States, that has been in operation since the Bretton Woods Conference of July 1944.

The US government is now having a kind of break with reality.

The Trumpists are not even right-wing or conservative in the normal sense, just tribal, recklessly macho and inept.

What's more, Americans knew who they were voting for last year because they watched him for four years, and then he reminded them last year who he was and told them what he was going to do in his second term.

They voted for him anyway and now their prices will rise because of the tariffs, many of them will lose their jobs because of the recession and their retirement savings will shrink because of the stock market decline, caused by the combination of uncertainty and the coming stagflation.

You can't win a tariff fight with Trump for three simple reasons

The Australian government after May 3 will no doubt want to try to negotiate with the Trump administration about our 10 per cent tariff, but they might be better off to just work around it and move on.

www.abc.net.au

 

[divs4ever]

Alan Kohler, as usual, sums up the madness that lies behind the end of the USA. The headline is apt. The details important.

America is having a break with reality on tariffs. The world will move on to a new order​

By Alan Kohler

• Topic:World Politics

9h ago9 hours ago

View attachment 197041
Anti-Trump protests erupt in the US and around the world.

Link copied

The Australian government after May 3 will no doubt want to try to negotiate with the Trump administration about our 10 per cent tariff, but they might be better off to just work around it and move on.

The American age is coming to an end after 80 years and nine months and will be replaced by something that may be better.
We don't yet know what that new world looks like, and the journey there is likely to be painful, especially for America.

But the train has left the station — not just because of the tariffs unveiled on April 2, but because Donald Trump has smashed the global system of alliances and co-operation, led by the United States, that has been in operation since the Bretton Woods Conference of July 1944.

The US government is now having a kind of break with reality.

The Trumpists are not even right-wing or conservative in the normal sense, just tribal, recklessly macho and inept.

What's more, Americans knew who they were voting for last year because they watched him for four years, and then he reminded them last year who he was and told them what he was going to do in his second term.

They voted for him anyway and now their prices will rise because of the tariffs, many of them will lose their jobs because of the recession and their retirement savings will shrink because of the stock market decline, caused by the combination of uncertainty and the coming stagflation.

You can't win a tariff fight with Trump for three simple reasons

The Australian government after May 3 will no doubt want to try to negotiate with the Trump administration about our 10 per cent tariff, but they might be better off to just work around it and move on.

www.abc.net.au

LOL

that looks like terrorism to me ( as the Democrats defined in January 2020 )

bring in the emergency powers and dawn arrests

 

[mullokintyre]

Once again, I call this sort of video stuff crap.
The guy talks about the high end carbon fibre bikes made in Vietnam, the good tyres made in Thailand etc.
In fact he said that virtually ebvery component in the high end bike behind him was made in a foreign country.
The factories in Thailand Vietnam and China make them at a fraction of the cost of production were they made in USA.
What will happen is that the American co's that own and produce the bikes will drop the price that they "charge" the US headquarters for the bike so the amount of tariff value is minuscule.
The CarbonbTrek Supercaliber road bike retails for USD 10k.
They will not be applying 50 or 60% tariffs on that retail price it will be under 1000 bucks wholesale.
It reminds of the time the Italians were whinging about the cost of fine Merino wool making their suits too expensive, but then someone pointed out that the value of fine merino wool in a 20k Zegna suit was less than 15 bucks.
It just gives the American retailers another excuse to put their prices up.
Towards the end of the video, the guy says there is already an oversupply of frames, bike components etc already sitting in warehouses.
He then goes on to say that most bike companies are selling them almost at cost.
Once again, I bet the costs that he talks about are not the cost of components, it is just as likely to be all the overheads involved - marketing, sponsorships, etc.
It would be great to get some forensic accounting stuck into some of these claims so we can find out how many of these claims are true.
Mick

 

[TimeISmoney]

Once again, I call this sort of video stuff crap.
The guy talks about the high end carbon fibre bikes made in Vietnam, the good tyres made in Thailand etc.
In fact he said that virtually ebvery component in the high end bike behind him was made in a foreign country.
The factories in Thailand Vietnam and China make them at a fraction of the cost of production were they made in USA.
What will happen is that the American co's that own and produce the bikes will drop the price that they "charge" the US headquarters for the bike so the amount of tariff value is minuscule.
The CarbonbTrek Supercaliber road bike retails for USD 10k.
They will not be applying 50 or 60% tariffs on that retail price it will be under 1000 bucks wholesale.
It reminds of the time the Italians were whinging about the cost of fine Merino wool making their suits too expensive, but then someone pointed out that the value of fine merino wool in a 20k Zegna suit was less than 15 bucks.
It just gives the American retailers another excuse to put their prices up.
Towards the end of the video, the guy says there is already an oversupply of frames, bike components etc already sitting in warehouses.
He then goes on to say that most bike companies are selling them almost at cost.
Once again, I bet the costs that he talks about are not the cost of components, it is just as likely to be all the overheads involved - marketing, sponsorships, etc.
It would be great to get some forensic accounting stuck into some of these claims so we can find out how many of these claims are true.
Mick

There was a shortage of bikes during Covid and bike shops charged what they wanted and made a mint. After Covid prices went back to normal, a lot of retailers, wholesalers, and manufacturers went bust, even in Australia and the UK.

There aren't the huge profits that people think there are in bikes, especially higher-end, the bike industry has been struggling to survive for a while now. A lot of tech goes into high-end bikes, and most of the connected parts come out of Japan and or are assembled or made in the US, the numbers of these bikes sold makes it hard to recouperate the R&D spent. There's more profit in the low-end bike industry that people buy to sit around in the shed because most of it is cheap and old tech, they use expired patents and pumped out in high numbers.

Stats with Latz Special | Cycling Industry CEOs talk Prices, Boom, Bust, and What’s Next

Our industry guru Phil Latz spoke to the movers and shakers at the top of the local bike industry to try and figure out when things may stabilise and where things stand.

flowmountainbike.com

https://www.bikemag.com/news/rocky-mountain-bicycles-restructures

UPDATED | Orange Bikes Calls In Administrators

Update: statement from Orange 8th January, 1pm: In response to current speculation regarding the position of Orange Bikes and the recently filed Notice of Intention to appoint Admini…

singletrackworld.com

 

[divs4ever]

Once again, I call this sort of video stuff crap.
The guy talks about the high end carbon fibre bikes made in Vietnam, the good tyres made in Thailand etc.
In fact he said that virtually ebvery component in the high end bike behind him was made in a foreign country.
The factories in Thailand Vietnam and China make them at a fraction of the cost of production were they made in USA.
What will happen is that the American co's that own and produce the bikes will drop the price that they "charge" the US headquarters for the bike so the amount of tariff value is minuscule.
The CarbonbTrek Supercaliber road bike retails for USD 10k.
They will not be applying 50 or 60% tariffs on that retail price it will be under 1000 bucks wholesale.
It reminds of the time the Italians were whinging about the cost of fine Merino wool making their suits too expensive, but then someone pointed out that the value of fine merino wool in a 20k Zegna suit was less than 15 bucks.
It just gives the American retailers another excuse to put their prices up.
Towards the end of the video, the guy says there is already an oversupply of frames, bike components etc already sitting in warehouses.
He then goes on to say that most bike companies are selling them almost at cost.
Once again, I bet the costs that he talks about are not the cost of components, it is just as likely to be all the overheads involved - marketing, sponsorships, etc.
It would be great to get some forensic accounting stuck into some of these claims so we can find out how many of these claims are true.
Mick

back when i raced bicycles , the premium stuff came out of Italy , the UK made some good stuff and Japan was becoming very competitive ( in quality, price and innovation )

i remember wrecking a bicycle in the early 1980's and it cost me more than $1000 TO FIX the frame was only mildly bent and some parts were still fine about 30% went back on the repaired bike

so $1k for an entire bicycle he should be thrilled ( even at double the price ) or it is junk

 

[IFocus]

On a related note, guys, the idea that you're going to be able to accurately predict the long/longer term effect of these things all of a few days after they've been announced is just... ugh.

Remember that the yanks live in a 4 year election cycle. For all we know, most of this stuff will be removed by the next president. It's only once it becomes apparent that a very long term/deep geopolitical shift has occurred (i.e tariffs and the like are favoured by both the republicans and the democrats) that we'll start to see some big decisions made by corporate america.

You need to think bigger picture and go back a bit and think about things like biden's chip act and what the driving forces of it were.


Nobody's going to dump billions building A: a factory and B: an entire supply chain based on what could be a 4 year 12% tariff policy or whatever, for fucks sake...

Yep keep in mind US foreign policy often doesn’t change much between administrations also in the US money talks at some point Trump will come under pressure if enough power brokers lose money markets still falling because no one can measure the risk or price what the other side looks like interesting times it will create opportunities for us all but it will require patience….grasshopper

 

[TimeISmoney]

back when i raced bicycles , the premium stuff came out of Italy , the UK made some good stuff and Japan was becoming very competitive ( in quality, price and innovation )

i remember wrecking a bicycle in the early 1980's and it cost me more than $1000 TO FIX the frame was only mildly bent and some parts were still fine about 30% went back on the repaired bike

so $1k for an entire bicycle he should be thrilled ( even at double the price ) or it is junk

$1000 is roughly the starting price for a good entry set of road wheels today, most dentists would snub their nose at you .

 

[wayneL]

$1000 is roughly the starting price for a good entry set of road wheels today, most dentists would snub their nose at you .

Cheezuz! Over a thousand bucks just so I don't @#$& up my knees running?

How much is a knee replacement?

 

[over9k]

Cheezuz! Over a thousand bucks just so I don't @#$& up my knees running?

How much is a knee replacement?

No he was being literal. Just the wheels are $1000.

The bike itself is about 5000 at entry level.

A high end one is 25000.