Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[divs4ever]

I think in all of this it needs to be considered that there's a wide range of things that fall within the broad definition of manufacturing just as there's a wide range of things that fall within the broad definition of (say) the medical profession or the transport industry.

but will they go through a university/college degree ( and the associated debt ) ??

they have seen many other high level jobs vanish will they take the risk ( after seeing their seniors buried in persistent debt )

graphic designers will be replaced by AI soon enough , actors as well , musicians , probably

and wait and see if engineers have future some AI will design and blue-print it way quicker

 

[divs4ever]

Trump's a genius, stealing from the poor to give to the rich.

not so genius it has been happening for centuries , inflation is very popular way , banks lending money they don't own is another,

a bit of charisma and flair , that's all

plenty of sizzle and very little sausage ( the super-rich get the steak )

 

[frugal.rock]

Oh look... it's already happening.
Made in USA is the old stock.
Made in Mexico is the new stock.
K&N Oil filters, same part number. Purchased today.

 

[frugal.rock]

Stellantis (Chrysler etc) out of Canada and Mexico have stopped exports to the US, as have Land Rover/ Jaguar from the UK.

Might just improve Tesla's sales, unless they all just start buying gas guzzling Dodge Rams and the like.

 

[divs4ever]

Stellantis (Chrysler etc) out of Canada and Mexico have stopped exports to the US, as have Land Rover/ Jaguar from the UK.

Might just improve Tesla's sales, unless they all just start buying gas guzzling Dodge Rams and the like.

the 'noise ' i have heard is , there is a trend to reconsider second-hand cars again ( when buying a car )

again it is 'noise ' so far

( i hold several motor [ car/bike ] dealer stocks )

this sector was a gem in 2020 for me MAYBE it will be again

 

[over9k]

so that they can be employed

Have you actually thought about what you've said?

Forcing companies to produce their goods on-shore by americans is the very purpose of the tariffs. While it increases the cost of goods it also increases the demand for american labour.

 

[over9k]

On a related note, guys, the idea that you're going to be able to accurately predict the long/longer term effect of these things all of a few days after they've been announced is just... ugh.

Remember that the yanks live in a 4 year election cycle. For all we know, most of this stuff will be removed by the next president. It's only once it becomes apparent that a very long term/deep geopolitical shift has occurred (i.e tariffs and the like are favoured by both the republicans and the democrats) that we'll start to see some big decisions made by corporate america.

You need to think bigger picture and go back a bit and think about things like biden's chip act and what the driving forces of it were.


Nobody's going to dump billions building A: a factory and B: an entire supply chain based on what could be a 4 year 12% tariff policy or whatever, for fucks sake...

 

[over9k]

Meanwhile, trump's just floated the idea of even bigger tariffs "across asia".

Which is like yeah, no kidding, asia's been the entire world's workshop for about 30 years now.

So the tariffs are becoming more targeted. Significant event.

 

[wayneL]

On a related note, guys, the idea that you're going to be able to accurately predict the long/longer term effect of these things all of a few days after they've been announced is just... ugh.

Remember that the yanks live in a 4 year election cycle. For all we know, most of this stuff will be removed by the next president. It's only once it becomes apparent that a very long term/deep geopolitical shift has occurred (i.e tariffs and the like are favoured by both the republicans and the democrats) that we'll start to see some big decisions made by corporate america.

You need to think bigger picture and go back a bit and think about things like biden's chip act and what the driving forces of it were.


Nobody's going to dump billions building A: a factory and B: an entire supply chain based on what could be a 4 year 12% tariff policy or whatever, for fucks sake...

But... But.... But... They told us if Trump won that this would be the last election ever.

 

[mullokintyre]

I made a comment the other day about every person I met recently was suddenly an expert on tariffs.
I was looking at one of my investments, ARB, which had a good presence in the USA, and did a good bit of business there.
Although the US business accounted for only 12% of sales last year, the value grew by 18% YOY, so its a market that is getting more important.
The general consensus was that the Tariffs would decimate the company.
Australia has been hit with 10% tariffs on exports to the USA, so at the very worst there would be an increase in 10% on the wholesale price of goods going into the warehouse.
Given that there will be at least a 40% markup, the cost to consumers has gone up by around 6%, assuming that the cost of the imports stay the same.
The Australian dollar plunged some 5% over the past few days, which could be used to o0ffset the tariffs with an almost net zero affect.
ARB does some manufatcuring in the USA, especially high end stuff that is non labour intensive like billet machining, automatic welding etc, which will not attract any import tariffs.
Aluminium and steel attract higher tariffs, but some of that will be offset by lowe AUD/USD conversions.
I suspect that there are other industries that like ARB, will have a smaller net effect in the long run.
Mick

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I made a comment the other day about every person I met recently was suddenly an expert on tariffs.
I was looking at one of my investments, ARB, which had a good presence in the USA, and did a good bit of business there.
Although the US business accounted for only 12% of sales last year, the value grew by 18% YOY, so its a market that is getting more important.
The general consensus was that the Tariffs would decimate the company.
Australia has been hit with 10% tariffs on exports to the USA, so at the very worst there would be an increase in 10% on the wholesale price of goods going into the warehouse.
Given that there will be at least a 40% markup, the cost to consumers has gone up by around 6%, assuming that the cost of the imports stay the same.
The Australian dollar plunged some 5% over the past few days, which could be used to o0ffset the tariffs with an almost net zero affect.
ARB does some manufatcuring in the USA, especially high end stuff that is non labour intensive like billet machining, automatic welding etc, which will not attract any import tariffs.
Aluminium and steel attract higher tariffs, but some of that will be offset by lowe AUD/USD conversions.
I suspect that there are other industries that like ARB, will have a smaller net effect in the long run.
Mick

A lot of ARB stuff is made in Thailand .

Breville's is China

 

[over9k]

Meanwhile:

U.S futures are 4% into the red at the start of the trading week. We may see SPY in the 470's tonight.

 

[Knobby22]

I made a comment the other day about every person I met recently was suddenly an expert on tariffs.
I was looking at one of my investments, ARB, which had a good presence in the USA, and did a good bit of business there.
Although the US business accounted for only 12% of sales last year, the value grew by 18% YOY, so its a market that is getting more important.
The general consensus was that the Tariffs would decimate the company.
Australia has been hit with 10% tariffs on exports to the USA, so at the very worst there would be an increase in 10% on the wholesale price of goods going into the warehouse.
Given that there will be at least a 40% markup, the cost to consumers has gone up by around 6%, assuming that the cost of the imports stay the same.
The Australian dollar plunged some 5% over the past few days, which could be used to o0ffset the tariffs with an almost net zero affect.
ARB does some manufatcuring in the USA, especially high end stuff that is non labour intensive like billet machining, automatic welding etc, which will not attract any import tariffs.
Aluminium and steel attract higher tariffs, but some of that will be offset by lowe AUD/USD conversions.
I suspect that there are other industries that like ARB, will have a smaller net effect in the long run.
Mick

Yes, I agree.
Australia won't be hurt by this except maybe reduced exports from other nations.

The aluminium tariff for instance is particularly stupid as the USA get 50% aluminium supply from Canada and there is no way they can get smelters operating to replace this in a reasonable time frame. Dumb dumb dumb.

The beef tariff won't effect us. they can't import cheaper than 10% tariff.

And as you say the $A drops which is a normal thing that happens with tariffs.

It's plainly suicide for the USA economy. According to economists they will cause a contraction of the USA economy by 2.3%. Massive! This will cause a downward spiral with millions losing jobs etc.
I bet Trump pulls out of this swan dive....but when?

 

[over9k]

I made a comment the other day about every person I met recently was suddenly an expert on tariffs.
I was looking at one of my investments, ARB, which had a good presence in the USA, and did a good bit of business there.
Although the US business accounted for only 12% of sales last year, the value grew by 18% YOY, so its a market that is getting more important.
The general consensus was that the Tariffs would decimate the company.
Australia has been hit with 10% tariffs on exports to the USA, so at the very worst there would be an increase in 10% on the wholesale price of goods going into the warehouse.
Given that there will be at least a 40% markup, the cost to consumers has gone up by around 6%, assuming that the cost of the imports stay the same.
The Australian dollar plunged some 5% over the past few days, which could be used to o0ffset the tariffs with an almost net zero affect.
ARB does some manufatcuring in the USA, especially high end stuff that is non labour intensive like billet machining, automatic welding etc, which will not attract any import tariffs.
Aluminium and steel attract higher tariffs, but some of that will be offset by lowe AUD/USD conversions.
I suspect that there are other industries that like ARB, will have a smaller net effect in the long run.
Mick

Precision machining is something that asia isn't particularly good at (yet).

Good observation about the currency movements

 

[basilio]

Oh look... it's already happening.
Made in USA is the old stock.
Made in Mexico is the new stock.
K&N Oil filters, same part number. Purchased today.


View attachment 196943

Isn't it a label Frugal rock ? Changing labels on products for marketing purposes is as old as the hills.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Yes, I agree.
Australia won't be hurt by this except maybe reduced exports from other nations.

The aluminium tariff for instance is particularly stupid as the USA get 50% aluminium supply from Canada and there is no way they can get smelters operating to replace this in a reasonable time frame. Dumb dumb dumb.

The beef tariff won't effect us. they can't import cheaper than 10% tariff.

And as you say the $A drops which is a normal thing that happens with tariffs.

It's plainly suicide for the USA economy. According to economists they will cause a contraction of the USA economy by 2.3%. Massive! This will cause a downward spiral with millions losing jobs etc.
I bet Trump pulls out of this swan dive....but when?

You'll see the problems through exports to China for Australia.

I think Trump will keep on going to try and crash economies until someone can intervene.

If he could go more on the tariffs without decimating the US, I think he would.

 

[basilio]

Yes, I agree.
Australia won't be hurt by this except maybe reduced exports from other nations.

The aluminium tariff for instance is particularly stupid as the USA get 50% aluminium supply from Canada and there is no way they can get smelters operating to replace this in a reasonable time frame. Dumb dumb dumb.

The beef tariff won't effect us. they can't import cheaper than 10% tariff.

And as you say the $A drops which is a normal thing that happens with tariffs.

It's plainly suicide for the USA economy. According to economists they will cause a contraction of the USA economy by 2.3%. Massive! This will cause a downward spiral with millions losing jobs etc.
I bet Trump pulls out of this swan dive....but when?

I think the overwhelming problem for everyone will be the effects on other countries. China will be trashed. There goes our major export market .
I am concerned about overall financial stability with the roiling markets. There have already been pointed questions raised about disorderly markets. We know that most big trading is down with leverage and derivatives. This is a super dangerous situation and the biggest player is a ....... ?

As far as I can see Trump has started a worldwide Texas Holdem card game. He has dealt everyone a hand and decided that having the biggest chip stack and dealing the cards he can decide who will be totally ruined, who will just get their teeth kicked in and who might walk away with the shirt on their back and bugger all chips left.

 

[mullokintyre]

Isn't it a label Frugal rock ? Changing labels on products for marketing purposes is as old as the hills.

I doubt they would be doing that, the legal consequences of putting fake country of origin labels on products in Australia can be somewhat expensive.
You can put bull**** stuff like " Now with even morePower", or now "50% brighter" , thats marketing bull****.
Labelling of weight or volume of contents , country or origin, ingredients etc are covered by some stricter rules.
Mick

 

[basilio]

I doubt they would be doing that, the legal consequences of putting fake country of origin labels on products in Australia can be somewhat expensive.
You can put bull**** stuff like " Now with even morePower", or now "50% brighter" , thats marketing bull****.
Labelling of weight or volume of contents , country or origin, ingredients etc are covered by some stricter rules.
Mick

I can understand that view and from a legal POV of view entirely correct.

My own experience was working in bottleshops and on a quiet day the manager said we were going to take certain labels of a range of wines and put on new ones. Not the same company. Quite different. Floored me then but I also saw some similar behaviour when I worked in other manufacturing fields.

 

[DannyB0000]

Dow futures for tonight. I wouldn't be in a hurry to buy today if you have cash available. The market could get even cheaper tomorrow.