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Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

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over9k said:
Ehhhh not so certain that
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Why do you always put a link in to a comment from a member @Chronus-Plutus who is no longer active with whom you had a disagreement getting on for a decade ago.

It is so distracting and takes away from the quality of your posts @over9k .

gg
 
If Iran decides to block the straight of Hormuz, it will cause the price of oil to spike to $100 maybe more. There was a similar oil embargo by Arab states in 1973, oil went up 300%. Oil went from $3 USD to nearly $12 USD. October 1973 to March 1974.
 

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DannyB0000 said:
If Iran decides to block the straight of Hormuz, it will cause the price of oil to spike to $100 maybe more. There was a similar oil embargo by Arab states in 1973, oil went up 300%. Oil went from $3 USD to nearly $12 USD. October 1973 to March 1974.
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Iran hasn't got that many bargaining chips. Might do it.
 
DannyB0000 said:
If Iran decides to block the straight of Hormuz, it will cause the price of oil to spike to $100 maybe more. There was a similar oil embargo by Arab states in 1973, oil went up 300%. Oil went from $3 USD to nearly $12 USD. October 1973 to March 1974.
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ha ha. ssme location, very different circumstances

In October 1973, OAPEC* announced that it was implementing a total oil embargo against countries that had supported Israel at any point during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, which began after Egypt and Syria launched a large-scale surprise attack in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to recover the territories that they had lost to Israel during the 1967 Six-Day War.

*note the A ... for Arab
 
WOW Blow the backbone out of Iran, Now there left to be firing fire cracker over the sea into Israel, when 90% are blown out of the sky bye Israel Iron Dome. Must surrender or there going to be another Palestinian. Running around the streets in search of some where to sleep and eat.
To early to say what it's doing to the Markets, except oils up( fuel ) every thing else would have to be blown away by it all and going hey-wired. Be bugged with this Trump chap, whats next!
 
Bailxtrader said:
WOW Blow the backbone out of Iran, Now there left to be firing fire cracker over the sea into Israel, when 90% are blown out of the sky bye Israel Iron Dome. Must surrender or there going to be another Palestinian. Running around the streets in search of some where to sleep and eat.
To early to say what it's doing to the Markets, except oils up( fuel ) every thing else would have to be blown away by it all and going hey-wired. Be bugged with this Trump chap, whats next!
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A bit of reality: Iran is 1500km away from Israel, every air raid is a long and expensive affair, no troop on the ground , anyone willing?
Moreover, all raids are done with the help of some friendly Muslim countries whose citizens may not like seeing US and Israeli planes overhead too frequently
Or is the US ready to go all in?
Landing there? I doubt.
So what is next?
If Iran tries a selective blocus on Ormuz, i somehow expect to see a few Russian and Chinese tankers blown up there as well with US denial of course
And if the US endangers Chinese supply , expect a costly reaction.
IMHO, Trump will stop US involvment, expensive oil is a no go for his economic reforms, and Israel will try to hit a few turban heads here and there but i doubt we will see a regime change.
I know it seems hard to get worse there but we could be surprised ....
Not great economically for Trump..btw where are the TACO guys now? 😉
 
qldfrog said:
A bit of reality: Iran is 1500km away from Israel, every air raid is a long and expensive affair, no troop on the ground , anyone willing?
Moreover, all raids are done with the help of some friendly Muslim countries whose citizens may not like seeing US and Israeli planes overhead too frequently
Or is the US ready to go all in?
Landing there? I doubt.
So what is next?
If Iran tries a selective blocus on Ormuz, i somehow expect to see a few Russian and Chinese tankers blown up there as well with US denial of course
And if the US endangers Chinese supply , expect a costly reaction.
IMHO, Trump will stop US involvment, expensive oil is a no go for his economic reforms, and Israel will try to hit a few turban heads here and there but i doubt we will see a regime change.
I know it seems hard to get worse there but we could be surprised ....
Not great economically for Trump..btw where are the TACO guys now? 😉
Click to expand...

Do you think Trump is going to stop involvement? Do you think he would have started this path only to just stop? He's already drawn international condemnation from those who are so inclined, he presumably wouldn't have planned to just make one strike, suffering all the criticism and loss of peaceful status, without planning to go further?

As for expensive oil, we all know at this point that OPEC has far more in reserves than we used to think back in the old 1990s gulf war days. Trump very likely has an oil deal in mind either along the lines of 'give us lots of cheap oil and do what we tell you or we'll keep blowing you up' or 'Now that they're all gone we'll just take the oil and install a friendly regime which allows it'. Either way, this is a cheap oil deal for the USA, not just going in and blowing up the oil, reducing supply and making it unavailable. Currently, Iran sells oil at cheap rates to China.... do you think Trump would love to stop that? Double whammy, he costs China a pile, and gets himself the good deal. Sure, China will not like it, but what are they going to do about it? What change from the current state of 'do as much as we can to harm the USA and the West' do you expect from China? China's main priority is already to harm the USA... so... you suggest it's a bad idea to do anything in retaliation? I'm sure you don't act according to that thinking in your own life - if I come in and steal your stuff you won't avoid doing anything to annoy me for fear that I might start stealing more of your stuff. And, in the mean time, it's not that big a deal for OPEC to open the taps and compensate for what Iran isn't putting out. Sure, it may not be a case of opening literal taps and increasing supply within a few days, but it's not that severe an issue for global supply when you currently have all the OPEC nations wanting to sell more than they do and frequently cheating the cartel to do so anyway.
 
Sdajii said:
Do you think Trump is going to stop involvement? Do you think he would have started this path only to just stop? He's already drawn international condemnation from those who are so inclined, he presumably wouldn't have planned to just make one strike, suffering all the criticism and loss of peaceful status, without planning to go further?

As for expensive oil, we all know at this point that OPEC has far more in reserves than we used to think back in the old 1990s gulf war days. Trump very likely has an oil deal in mind either along the lines of 'give us lots of cheap oil and do what we tell you or we'll keep blowing you up' or 'Now that they're all gone we'll just take the oil and install a friendly regime which allows it'. Either way, this is a cheap oil deal for the USA, not just going in and blowing up the oil, reducing supply and making it unavailable. Currently, Iran sells oil at cheap rates to China.... do you think Trump would love to stop that? Double whammy, he costs China a pile, and gets himself the good deal. Sure, China will not like it, but what are they going to do about it? What change from the current state of 'do as much as we can to harm the USA and the West' do you expect from China? China's main priority is already to harm the USA... so... you suggest it's a bad idea to do anything in retaliation? I'm sure you don't act according to that thinking in your own life - if I come in and steal your stuff you won't avoid doing anything to annoy me for fear that I might start stealing more of your stuff. And, in the mean time, it's not that big a deal for OPEC to open the taps and compensate for what Iran isn't putting out. Sure, it may not be a case of opening literal taps and increasing supply within a few days, but it's not that severe an issue for global supply when you currently have all the OPEC nations wanting to sell more than they do and frequently cheating the cartel to do so anyway.
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Afghanistan has shown you do not replace an islamist government by a western friendly one, ever..you just chose your terrorist.
So Trump will not launch an intenable occupation.yes he will try to stop there.
He got pushed by Netanyahu, and maybe indeed iran was going to get the nuke.
But Trump deal is restoring the US, and spreading more troops overseas is not the way, and is actually contrarian to his belief
And the economy can not afford it...
But yes Iran could strike back and force his hand again.
 
TimeISmoney said:
The war is most likely going to add a few more billion to their national debt, and it's going to edge them closer to the tipping point.
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NO , the coming war is a distraction because the debt is spine-crushing , the tipping point seems to be millimeters away ( so much so the dulled down masses would see if they looked in the right direction

let;s see if the Eastern aircraft carrier ( Japan ) has sprung a fatal leak
 
DannyB0000 said:
If Iran decides to block the straight of Hormuz, it will cause the price of oil to spike to $100 maybe more. There was a similar oil embargo by Arab states in 1973, oil went up 300%. Oil went from $3 USD to nearly $12 USD. October 1973 to March 1974.
Click to expand...
i have seen a suggestion the Iran is considering a selective blockade ( rather than sink a few tankers in the channel )

it was suggested some destinations ( China and maybe India ) would be allowed
 
over9k said:
Ehhhh not so certain that
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Agree early days, but Trump is ramping the rhetoric making claims or writing cheques that realistically cannot be cashed (Iran must surrender) at least there will not be a ground war in Iran also IMHO no change of regime either.

Realistically who really knows Trumps next move... he doesn't :)
 
qldfrog said:
Afghanistan has shown you do not replace an islamist government by a western friendly one, ever..you just chose your terrorist.
So Trump will not launch an intenable occupation.yes he will try to stop there.
He got pushed by Netanyahu, and maybe indeed iran was going to get the nuke.
But Trump deal is restoring the US, and spreading more troops overseas is not the way, and is actually contrarian to his belief
And the economy can not afford it...
But yes Iran could strike back and force his hand again.
Click to expand...

I totally agree that Afghanistan was a disaster, but there are two issues there. One is that even if it's a mistake, that doesn't prevent it from being made, and the other is that while one case may have been a disaster, doing it differently or doing it in another decade in a different set of circumstances may bring a different result. Even if it's doomed to failure, Trump may not think it is doomed to failure, either because he correctly sees that he will be doing it differently (which he would), or because he's simply so proud of himself that he thinks he can succeed even if it's not possible.

We'll see what happens. You may be right and the American military in Iran has already been completed. I expect there will be more,

Ifocus: Trump may not be predictable by you or me, and we may not like his next move, but he probably does know what it is, at least conditionally. No need for TDS, it doesn't look good on anyone, at least anyone with an IQ above room temperature.
 
Sdajii said:
Ifocus: Trump may not be predictable by you or me, and we may not like his next move, but he probably does know what it is, at least conditionally. No need for TDS, it doesn't look good on anyone, at least anyone with an IQ above room temperature.
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Nothing to do with the so called TDS, we see almost every day his administration clearly agreeing on a position including Trump only for Trump to change his mind tweeting literally while people are being interviewed latest is regime change in Iran.

Still its neither here or there chaos continues making for a difficult time for markets to plan ahead.
 

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