Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[over9k]

They're actively talking about "quantitative easing" being necessary at some point now.

In other words, printing money to pay the debt off.

 

[over9k]

But the fact is that until the budget is balanced they're just chasing their tail.

The west (not just usa) HAS to get its fiscal house in order.

 

[mullokintyre]

Yes, interest rates were at ridiculous lows for like 14 years post-gfc to post-russian-invasion. National debt has also slowly accrued over that time, it didn't shoot up to ridiculous levels and then just flatline, it's steadily increased for years and years and years and now both of these things combined has created a serious problem.

So yes, the debt being this close to unserviceable is new.

The chart tells otherwise.
Mick

 

[over9k]

The chart tells otherwise.
Mick
View attachment 201384

Nope, the chart shows exactly what I said, a steady increase in the national debt over years. The current debt levels are new and they are also in a new interest rate environment as well.

The amount of interest on the debt is a new phenomenon. This chart shows it:



As you can see it just soared in the post-invasion period, going from about 450 billion from 2010 to 2017, then 550-600 billion from 2018 to the start of 2022, and then soared in tandem with the post-invasion rate rises until 2023:



But because the national debt has continued to increase/the budget has not been balanced we haven't seen a corresponding flatlining or even dropping of total interest paid in tandem with rates and have instead actually seen the interest burden only increase despite the rate rises ceasing in july of 2023.

So yeah. Debt increase or interest rate increase on its own would be a problem, but when you combine the two it becomes potentially catastrophic.

It is financially impossible for the U.S government (and all western governments) to continue on their current trajectory.

 

[over9k]

For anyone wondering what happens if nothing is done:

Currency collapse, i.e hyperinflation. Think weimar germany.

 

[Knobby22]

The chart tells otherwise.
Mick
View attachment 201384

Yes, good graph, going exponential, and the new BB bill increases the angle of upward trajectory.
I personally don't see the reckoning happening this year but I am getting nervous.

I think the plan is to reduce the debt by taxing the rest of the world through foreign holdings and tariffs..., having a entrprenurail boom resulting in more money to be taxed, ....maybe it will work? I have my doubts.

Here is the graph I promised. Tariff income seems a bit hard to come by.

 

[IFocus]

So has the national debt level suddenly become a thing?
Why now?
The people demanding something be done about the debt level were ignoted because it was not a problem until suddenly it is.
Manipulation pure and simple.
Mick

Combined with Trumps instability / lack of clear policy has also shaken confidence (that's new)

Still it was always going to be OK kicking the can down the road until it isnt, is that now, tomorrow or the day after who knows until it blows up.

 

[over9k]

Combined with Trumps instability / lack of clear policy has also shaken confidence (that's new)

Still it was always going to be OK kicking the can down the road until it isnt, is that now, tomorrow or the day after who knows until it blows up.

If interest rates were still basically 0 they'd actually have a lot more ammo in the tank, but they aren't, so they don't.

As I said previously, we've spent so long in a post-gfc 0% rate environment we'd actually started to consider it normal.

 

[DannyB0000]

View attachment 201383

They're actively talking about "quantitative easing" being necessary at some point now.

In other words, printing money to pay the debt off.

I thought more money printing leads to more inflation, correct me if I'm wrong about this. How many times can you have more QE?

 

[over9k]

I thought more money printing leads to more inflation, correct me if I'm wrong about this. How many times can you have more QE?

It does. But balancing the budget the public don't want, raising taxes the public don't want...

See where I'm going with this?

Nobody wants to do/deal with what's necessary but soon there won't be a way to avoid it. That's the part that has me worried.

 

[mullokintyre]

It does. But balancing the budget the public don't want, raising taxes the public don't want...\

Congress and the house of resps care little about what the public may or may not want, unless of course it helps them get re elected.
Since when has the Fed given a rats arse about what the public may or may not want?
Its a private org run by the banks for the banks.

See where I'm going with this?

No.

Nobody wants to do/deal with what's necessary but soon there won't be a way to avoid it. That's the part that has me worried.

If you are worried now , you are a bit late to the party.
Mick

 

[over9k]

Congress and the house of resps care little about what the public may or may not want, unless of course it helps them get re elected.
Since when has the Fed given a rats arse about what the public may or may not want?
Its a private org run by the banks for the banks.

No.

If you are worried now , you are a bit late to the party.
Mick

Really determined to keep digging that hole aren't you?

 

[over9k]

Fed revises estimates to 3% inflation and just 1.4% gdp growth, so a contraction in real terms. Holds interest rates.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

"It is useful to look at the bigger picture with Trump running the world. His main self attribute is that he is a President for Peace. It is not in his nature to start wars or inflict physical injury on other countries. He will punish people in an economic sense without hesitation but afaik will not start a war. The history of the US meddling in Middle East affairs is woeful. It is good that we have such a talented and formidable Israeli army fighting for Western values albeit for their own nationalistic and religious reasons. Their existential struggle will keep a cap on any Islamic gains in the Middle East. The contribution of the USA will achieve nothing except a flood of migrants in to Europe and further instability in Iran and surrounding countries.

Thus I am bearish or neutral on the following in the short to medium term

• Gold
• Oil
• Defence stocks

I am bullish on

• Anything to do with China
• NASDAQ
• Australian stocks with International exposure e.g CSL

Things can change rapidly. This is purely my opinion following events from my laptop.

gg

 

[mullokintyre]

"It is useful to look at the bigger picture with Trump running the world. His main self attribute is that he is a President for Peace. It is not in his nature to start wars or inflict physical injury on other countries. He will punish people in an economic sense without hesitation but afaik will not start a war. The history of the US meddling in Middle East affairs is woeful. It is good that we have such a talented and formidable Israeli army fighting for Western values albeit for their own nationalistic and religious reasons. Their existential struggle will keep a cap on any Islamic gains in the Middle East. The contribution of the USA will achieve nothing except a flood of migrants in to Europe and further instability in Iran and surrounding countries.

Thus I am bearish or neutral on the following in the short to medium term

• Gold
• Oil
• Defence stocks

I am bullish on

• Anything to do with China
• NASDAQ
• Australian stocks with International exposure e.g CSL

Things can change rapidly. This is purely my opinion following events from my laptop.

gg

Tonight in the USA is option expiry day.
It is a big unknown given that it comes immediately after the one day closure of the US business sector for Juneteenth holiday (??).
From Bloombergs

Thats right, 5 trillion in options.
Its the sort of day where black swans may appear.
best to stay away me thinks.
Mick

 

[over9k]

Orange man decides to bomb iran, targets are the nuclear facilities. Nothing further promised but not also ruled out either.

There's an interview tucker carlson did with ted cruz that's gone viral:



It's abundantly clear that there is absolutely no public appetite for any boots on the ground or similiar, the most they'll be able to do is some air strikes (either direct bombing with B2's like this strike they just did) or some long range cruise whoopass from a navy ship.

The comments section on the video really tells you everything.

I just hope they don't do another gulf of tonkin incident where they park a bunch of ships nearby as bait to use an attack against as the exact excuse they need to go to war.

"Hurr iran attacked our ships". Yeah. Don't care. Why were they parked so close by in the first place?

**** off.

 

[qldfrog]

It is relatively obvious Trump was pushed into action by the Israel.
But this is really not good for him:
This is not "America first", does not help with cheap oil price which is a must have for his economy and adds risks of nasty counter attacks thru terrorism and extra economic costs.
Once again, the ones who will risk most are the EU nation but even i will not cry for them.
Sometimes, you get what you sow

 

[IFocus]

As the US bombs Iran and enters another war, China is the likely winner​

"China is publicly "deeply concerned" about events in the Middle East but privately is probably celebrating.

America is off to war again, and China will be the winner as it has been for two decades.

Throughout China's rise as an industrial power since it joined the World Trade Organization on December 11, 2001 — exactly three months after 9/11 — America has been constantly sidetracked and weakened by wars and unrest.

It started with the "War on Terror" after 9/11, then Afghanistan, Iraq in 2003, Yemen from 2002, Libya in 2007, Syria from 2014, the contested US election and riots of January 6, 2020, Ukraine and then Gaza over the past two years, Donald Trump's two trade wars, and now … Iran."

While America makes war, China is peacefully remaking itself

America is sidetracked and weakened by wars and unrest. Donald Trump understands the problem but has been unable to resist the pressure from America’s military establishment and Israel.

www.abc.net.au

 

[TimeISmoney]

The war is most likely going to add a few more billion to their national debt, and it's going to edge them closer to the tipping point.

 

[over9k]

America is off to war again

Ehhhh not so certain that