Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[Garpal Gumnut]

The important thing is interest rates. The original theory was to get them lower

Trump has stated on Truth Social that he wants a Fed that will lower interest rates. So if Powell does not comply there may be changes sooner than we thought. A low interest rate environment is essential to the American economy when the effect of tariffs kicks in on Main St. He is encouraging the Fed Chair to resign.

Enclosed a shared article from the NYT. No paywall.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/27/business/trump-powell-federal-reserve-resign.html?unlocked_article_code=1.SU8.6aHI.NGRaeE4gbYbs&smid=url-share

gg

 

[qldfrog]

Trump has stated on Truth Social that he wants a Fed that will lower interest rates. So if Powell does not comply there may be changes sooner than we thought. A low interest rate environment is essential to the American economy when the effect of tariffs kicks in on Main St. He is encouraging the Fed Chair to resign.

Enclosed a shared article from the NYT. No paywall.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/27/business/trump-powell-federal-reserve-resign.html?unlocked_article_code=1.SU8.6aHI.NGRaeE4gbYbs&smid=url-share

gg

Plus the non official but obvious agenda is to let inflation run to destroy debt..probably THE only way ...
And keeping interest high does:
Reduce inflation and so maintain / increase real debt
Increase the existing debt burden via interest.
Stops retail economy.
So on that plan, slash interest rates, let inflation run

 

[DannyB0000]

Trump has stated on Truth Social that he wants a Fed that will lower interest rates. So if Powell does not comply there may be changes sooner than we thought. A low interest rate environment is essential to the American economy when the effect of tariffs kicks in on Main St. He is encouraging the Fed Chair to resign.

Enclosed a shared article from the NYT. No paywall.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/27/business/trump-powell-federal-reserve-resign.html?unlocked_article_code=1.SU8.6aHI.NGRaeE4gbYbs&smid=url-share

gg

The fed is supposed to be independent for a reason, I trust J Powell with interest rate decisions than Trump, Powell’s intelligence would be in a different class.

 

[basilio]

Did you check whether Paul voted in the affirmative?
The fact that congress voted in favour does not mean each individual may have.
I could not get any deffinitive answer using google, but according to GROK, which may or may not be a reliable source
View attachment 202531
Mick

True. It was the Senate that approved the whole Bill As you point out every Republican voted against it.

I was pointing out however how economically irresponsible it is to now destroy a vehicle electrification program already implemented -
just for the sake of destroying it.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Oh never mind.

gg

 

[Smurf1976]

So on that plan, slash interest rates, let inflation run

Also known as "the easy way out".

Easy for government that is. Misery for just about everyone else.

As investors though our job isn't to argue wrong or right, it's to position ourselves for what's coming. Hard assets yes, cash or bonds no.

 

[qldfrog]

Also known as "the easy way out".

Easy for government that is. Misery for just about everyone else.

As investors though our job isn't to argue wrong or right, it's to position ourselves for what's coming. Hard assets yes, cash or bonds no.

When reaching the debt level of the US, it is not that easy and the ONLY way out, or just full collapse/gov bankruptcy..
So hard assets, no cash or bond indeed
Gold..

 

[over9k]

the comments really say it all

 

[Bailxtrader]

Has Trump bitten off more than he could chew, with his latest Tariffs. Canada have bite back at Trump. Chewing up the Struggling US Industry!

Canada hits back at Trump's tariffs ultimatum with move that could cripple struggling US industry​

After President Donald Trump shut down all trade talks with Canada, the country retaliated by hiking duties on American steel imports.

Canada imposed an import quota late Friday and if it is exceeded, certain American steel sent to the country will face a new 50 percent surcharge.

Canada's Finance Minister, François-Philippe Champagne, said the government was acting to protect domestic industry from 'unjust US tariffs,' NBC News reported.

The response came hours after Trump posted on Truth Social about how Canada is a 'very difficult country to trade with.'

His reason for suspending trade negotiations came down to a tax Canada is set to impose on major tech companies starting Monday.

'Based on this egregious Tax, we are hereby terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada, effective immediately,' Trump wrote, adding that the levy 'is a direct and blatant attack on our Country.'

Last week, the finance minister said he would not delay the implementation of the digital services tax, which applies to any firm making more than $15 million from Canadian internet users.

The three percent tax will strike at the heart of American companies like Amazon, Google, Meta, Uber and Airbnb.



And because the tax is retroactive back to 2022, one tech lobbying group said American firms will soon have to pay up to $3 billion directly into Canada's treasury.

Canada has not ruled out further action to strike back at Trump for ending negotiations, with the government saying it 'remains prepared to take additional steps as needed.'

How Canada's hike on US steel imports will affect the industry, which has been struggling for years, is yet to be seen.

US Steel Corporation, once one of the most valuable companies in the world, just merged with Japan's Nippon Steel earlier this month after years of declining sales.

Canada remains the second largest trading partner of the US, despite all the trade turmoil.

Right now, the US has 25 percent tariff on Canadian imports that aren't covered by the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the trade deal Trump signed in his first term.

Canadian energy is exempt from the 25 percent rate but is still tariffed at 10 percent, as are most products that have entered the US since early April.

Canada is also hugely impacted by Trump's 50 percent tax on steel and aluminum imports, as the country is largest foreign supplier of those materials to the US.

Canada's steel industry has laid off a staggering 1,000 workers since the first US tariffs in March, Reuters reported.

It has also been impacted by the 25 percent duties Trump has levied on foreign-made vehicles and parts.

This comes as the US rapidly approaches Trump's July 9 deadline to renegotiate trade with countries around the world so they can avoid so-called reciprocal tariffs.

Trump first announced the reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which he dubbed 'Liberation Day.'

More than 60 countries were hit with import charges of as much as 50 percent. The announcement from the White House led to widespread market panic and falling bond values, which led to Trump enacting a 90-day pause on April 9.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said early Friday that the pause could be extended to Labor Day - and that country-by-country tariffs could be negotiated down in that time.

Hours later, Trump echoed a similar sentiment. He said the initial July 9 deadline was not set in stone and could shortened or extended.

 

[basilio]

The horrendous effects of Trump random Tariff policy is undermining whole swathes of US industry.
4 Corners has a program tonight that explores the impact of the "policy" across agriculatural, manufacturing and transport industries.

The ABC story summarises the program

Three months on from 'Liberation Day', Donald Trump's trade war is punishing US businesses​

By Steve Cannane of ABC Investigations, Mary Fallon and Lara Sonnenschein

• Four Corners
• Topic:Tariffs

6h ago6 hours ago

John Ashe's family has been farming in North Carolina across four generations. (Four Corners: Ryan Sheridan)

Link copied

Farmer John Ashe's dealt with drought. He's dealt with hurricanes.
But what he saw the US president announce on TV left him speechless.
"I just shook my head. My wife was shaking her head, and I was thinking, what's next?" he says.

Almost 90 days ago, Donald Trump shocked the world when he announced his so-called reciprocal tariffs on more than 180 countries and territories.
Designed to punish foreign nations who ran trade deficits with the US, the tariffs have instead put much of Trump's heartland in the crosshairs.

In Austin, Texas, toy manufacturer Molson Hart watched as President Trump brandished a game show-like list of tariffed countries.
"When I first saw that sign, I wasn't sure if it was real. It was just unbelievable. People weren't expecting those kinds of numbers," he says.

Texas toy manufacturer Molson Hart is scrambling to move production out of China. (Four Corners: Ryan Sheridan)
Since President Trump's inauguration he has announced more than 50 new or revised tariffs, including pauses, backdowns, escalations and de-escalations.

Business owners and workers across the US are reeling from the chaos and confusion unleashed by Trump's trade policy.
And with only days to go until a temporary pause on the highest "reciprocal" tariffs is due to be lifted, there are fears about what comes next.

'You cannot take a chainsaw and do surgery'​

Americans say Trump's tariffs are causing the US to 'collapse from within'

Donald Trump's tariffs were designed to punish foreign nations who ran trade deficits with the US. Instead, the policy has put the businesses and industries he's seeking to protect in the crosshairs.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Craton]

Talk about disruption!
Best I stock up on popcorn 'cos the entertainment has just began. Not....

 

[divs4ever]

Indeed . And guess what ? EV is a huge part of military tech. They have the deepest pockets and as you point out it makes so much sense from a operational and tactical perspective.

The Current (and Future) State of Military EVs

Electric vehicles are coming to U.S. military installations, but they might not be what you expect.

www.military.com

Power projection: Accelerating the electrification of US military ground vehicles

This Global Energy Center & Forward Defense paper explores the advantages of electrifying military ground vehicles.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

https://www.diu.mil/latest/department-of-defense-to-prototype-commercial-lithium-batteries-for-soldier

it will be interesting to see the changes in anti-armor ordinance , will some nations cease using depleted uranium cores ?

could get experimental if you have a battery to light up ( water extinguishers won't cut it )

 

[divs4ever]

Plus the non official but obvious agenda is to let inflation run to destroy debt..probably THE only way ...
And keeping interest high does:
Reduce inflation and so maintain / increase real debt
Increase the existing debt burden via interest.
Stops retail economy.
So on that plan, slash interest rates, let inflation run

no ..
the tried and tested way out is a huge war and in the name of National Security delay payments ( maturity but maybe also interest ) for decades and hope the lenders die first ( or go too broke to sue for payment )

i think the phrase is 'Force majeure '

Force Majeure - Definition, Examples, Clauses, Contract Negotiation

Force majeure defined and explained with examples. Force majeure: an unexpected, disruptive event that may excuse a party from performing duties under a contract.

legaldictionary.net

 

[moXJO]

The fed is supposed to be independent for a reason, I trust J Powell with interest rate decisions than Trump, Powell’s intelligence would be in a different class.

I think its outcomes that GG is interested in. Not personalities.

 

[qldfrog]

And no TACO there
"
3:36 PM
Jun 30, 2025
HIGHLIGHT
Canada announces U-turn after Trump retaliates

Brielle Burns
Canada has rescinded a digital services tax on US tech firms in the hopes of advancing trade takes with its southern neighbour.

The U-turn comes after President Donald Trump abruptly terminated all trade talks with Canada over the tax, which he described as a “direct and blatant attack” on the US.

In a statement on the Government of Canada website, the Department of Finance Canada wrote: “Canada’s new government is engaged in complex negotiations on a new economic and security partnership with the United States, focused on getting the best deal for Canadian workers and businesses.”
To be honest, looking at the TDS troops going into shock after shock discovering that the world is not all lollipop and butterflies is becoming comforting

 

[qldfrog]

And no TACO there
"
3:36 PM
Jun 30, 2025
HIGHLIGHT
Canada announces U-turn after Trump retaliates

Brielle Burns
Canada has rescinded a digital services tax on US tech firms in the hopes of advancing trade takes with its southern neighbour.

The U-turn comes after President Donald Trump abruptly terminated all trade talks with Canada over the tax, which he described as a “direct and blatant attack” on the US.

In a statement on the Government of Canada website, the Department of Finance Canada wrote: “Canada’s new government is engaged in complex negotiations on a new economic and security partnership with the United States, focused on getting the best deal for Canadian workers and businesses.”
To be honest, looking at the TDS troops going into shock after shock discovering that the world is not all lollipop and butterflies is becoming comforting

Ohh i forgot.
Go Canada go;
Now let's have Rudd starts his play

 

[basilio]

The 4 Corners program last night went into detail on the effects of Donald Trumps Tariff deadline coming to an end.
What will happen ? The Bond market almost went into melt down a few months ago before the pause. Has the market lost its memory ?

Experts warn of global economic turmoil ahead of Donald Trump's tariff deadline​

By Steve Cannane of ABC Investigations, Mary Fallon and Lara Sonnenschein

• Four Corners
• Topic:Tariffs

7h ago7 hours ago

Donald Trump said his tariffs would address the "national emergency" of the US's trade deficit. (Getty Images: Jim Lo Scalo/EPA/Bloomberg )

Link copied

Donald Trump has torn up the rule book in his second presidential term — defying the courts, the congress and the constitution.
But it's his attempt to "make America wealthy again" by imposing tariffs on more than 180 countries and territories that have caused months of chaos, undermined business confidence in the United States, and pushed the world to the brink of a financial crisis.

With a three-month pause on the tariffs just days from expiring, leading experts in economics and international relations have told Four Corners they fear Mr Trump's "unworkable" and "absurd" trade policies will create more instability and plunge the global economy into turmoil.

'It's a very strange strategy': Trump's tariffs are backfiring on the US economy

Donald Trump's attempt to "make America wealthy again" by imposing tariffs put the world on the brink of a financial crisis. With a three-month pause ending within days, trade experts are warning the global economy could be plunged into turmoil.

www.abc.net.au

 

[TimeISmoney]

The 4 Corners program last night went into detail on the effects of Donald Trumps Tariff deadline coming to an end.
What will happen ? The Bond market almost went into melt down a few months ago before the pause. Has the market lost its memory ?

Experts warn of global economic turmoil ahead of Donald Trump's tariff deadline​

By Steve Cannane of ABC Investigations, Mary Fallon and Lara Sonnenschein

• Four Corners
• Topic:Tariffs

7h ago7 hours ago
View attachment 202805
Donald Trump said his tariffs would address the "national emergency" of the US's trade deficit. (Getty Images: Jim Lo Scalo/EPA/Bloomberg )

Link copied

Donald Trump has torn up the rule book in his second presidential term — defying the courts, the congress and the constitution.
But it's his attempt to "make America wealthy again" by imposing tariffs on more than 180 countries and territories that have caused months of chaos, undermined business confidence in the United States, and pushed the world to the brink of a financial crisis.

With a three-month pause on the tariffs just days from expiring, leading experts in economics and international relations have told Four Corners they fear Mr Trump's "unworkable" and "absurd" trade policies will create more instability and plunge the global economy into turmoil.

'It's a very strange strategy': Trump's tariffs are backfiring on the US economy

Donald Trump's attempt to "make America wealthy again" by imposing tariffs put the world on the brink of a financial crisis. With a three-month pause ending within days, trade experts are warning the global economy could be plunged into turmoil.

www.abc.net.au

It's looking like he's going to run the US into the ground while he fills his pockets with cash. If the US thinks he cares about the general populace, they have another thing coming.

The president’s crypto holdings are worth more than any single real estate asset in his portfolio, and even more than the combined value of Mar-a-Lago and Trump Tower.​

 

[DannyB0000]

It's looking like he's going to run the US into the ground while he fills his pockets with cash. If the US thinks he cares about the general populace, they have another thing coming.

The president’s crypto holdings are worth more than any single real estate asset in his portfolio, and even more than the combined value of Mar-a-Lago and Trump Tower.​

View attachment 202808

Am more worried about another Nixon Burns moment with interest rates. Have zero confidence with the Trump administration managing their economy with yes people surrounding Trump.

Trump is pressuring J Powell to drop interest rates or quit. Same thing happened between president Nixon and Arthur Burns in the early 70’s and I I’m not going to repeat what happened next, you can google that yourselves.

Medium term I’m worried about interest rates having to much higher and the US going bankrupt. Trump has gone bankrupt about 6 times. Only time will tell how things pan out in that country.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Am more worried about another Nixon Burns moment with interest rates. Have zero confidence with the Trump administration managing their economy with yes people surrounding Trump.

Trump is pressuring J Powell to drop interest rates or quit. Same thing happened between president Nixon and Arthur Burns in the early 70’s and I I’m not going to repeat what happened next, you can google that yourselves.

Medium term I’m worried about interest rates having to much higher and the US going bankrupt. Trump has gone bankrupt about 6 times. Only time will tell how things pan out in that country.

At this stage I would say a recession sometime in the near future will be inevitable, and of course, Trump will say it was part of the plan all along.

US companies are struggling to turn a profit, as it costs a lot of money to shift plants out of China to other parts of Asia, let alone bring them back to the US. The rest of the world isn't going to crumble; they'll stop trading with the US if it needs be. The gold buy up is a sign that they're preparing for the worst to happen and takes more power away from the US.