Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[Knobby22]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/12/us-and-china-agree-to-slash-tariffs-for-90-days.html

Not sure which side caved in first here

Pretty obvious to me.
What was the point?
What did it achieve?

 

[over9k]

"Substantial progress" being made on the negotiations, another 90 day pause in effect to enable completion of the talks, china confirms the news, futures soar.

Spy futures now at 581 so those buy orders around the 500 mark are now looking sweeeeeet.

 

[finicky]

 

[farmerge]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/12/us-and-china-agree-to-slash-tariffs-for-90-days.html

Not sure which side caved in first here

No doubt either side will be spruking we didn't buckle it was the other that did.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Trump's live on CNBC, going after foreign pharma sales.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Global Stocks Climb After US, China Agree to Cut Tariffs for 90 Days​

Thanks for joining us. Here are five key takeaways from US-China announcement after the two sides concluded trade talks over the weekend:

• Both sides issued identical statements on Monday agreeing to significantly reduce tariffs before May 14: Beijing lowered levies on US goods to 10% from 125% for 90 days, while Washington is reducing their levies to 30% from 145%
• China also said it would suspend or cancel its “non-tariff countermeasures” imposed on the US since April 2. That’s likely a reference to China’s addition on April 4 of seven rare earths to its export control list, a move widely viewed as a response to the increasingly punitive tariffs rolled out by the Trump administration.
• The US and China established an economic and trade consultation mechanism that will allow both sides to continue their negotiation
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US and China agree neither side wants to decouple, adding there were “robust” discussions on fentanyl and that talks could lead to “purchasing agreements” by China
• Markets cheered the reduction in levies with Chinese stocks extending their gains with major gauges erasing tariff losses, while the dollar rallied to a one-month high versus the euro and yen

Rebecca Choong WilkinsAsia Government & Politics Correspondent

 

[Craton]

So that's the reason the "buy stocks" flowed from the Trumpet's mouth... Just a bloody game isn't it?

 

[over9k]

Moody's cuts the U.S's credit rating from AAA to AA1 citing "government debt levels".

BIG deal.

 

[mullokintyre]

Moody's cuts the U.S's credit rating from AAA to AA1 citing "government debt levels".

BIG deal.

As if this a new and recent phenomenon.
Cynical as usual.
Mick

 

[Bellcose]

I found the best way to cope with all this bearish/bullish financial news matters is to completely ignore them and stay the course.

 

[Knobby22]

As if this a new and recent phenomenon.
Cynical as usual.
Mick

Moodys are the last credit agency to do the downgrade. The other agencies had done it in previous years.

 

[JohnDe]

Moodys are the last credit agency to do the downgrade. The other agencies had done it in previous years.

You incentivized me to check out the Moody's website and sign up for their documents. Worth a look https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/about-us.html

 

[Dona Ferentes]

and here's a consisidered argument that it's all going to be very tricky, and that QE is likely to be re-employed.


"Bessent recently said that when he was a hedge fund manager, that he had met with the Japanese PM and was most impressed with Abe’s strategy to manage the Japanese economy and its government debt crisis.

"Remember in that period Japanese bonds yields were negative under Abe’s direction. It became known as ‘Abenomics’ with ten-year bonds pushed by QE to negative 1%. Further, the Japanese Central Bank pushed out foreign creditors and today owns 53% of all Japanese bonds on issue. It is notable that today the FED today owns about 22% of US Government debt.

"On average the US Government is currently paying about 2.5% p.a. for its debt (some US$800 billion of interest). As this debt is rolled over and with a trillion dollars (a least) of new debt created each year, this cost will rise towards 4% pa. The interest bill on this basis will lift by US$0.5 trillion p.a. and so all the work done to reduce the ‘pre interest fiscal deficit’ or ‘underlying deficit’, through tariffs (revenue) and DOGE (lower costs), will be lost.

"The funding of the proposed Trump US tax reductions becomes extremely difficult unless bond rates decline and that is where the direction of the Fed and a substantial QE policy come into play. More so when the US Government hits its next debt limit....

full article:

Tariffs are a smokescreen to Trump's real endgame

Behind market volatility and tariff threats lies a deeper strategy. Trump’s real goal isn’t trade reform but managing America's massive debts, preserving bond market confidence, and preparing for potential QE.

www.firstlinks.com.au

 

[over9k]

Been saying that for a while, simple monetisation of the debt. Their challenge is to work out how to do it without sending inflation stratospheric.

To deal with the problem I think a combination of all three approaches (monetisation, cutting government spending, increased taxes) is going to be employed.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Bessent already they're going to lift the debt ceiling, inflate away.

 

[mullokintyre]

Moodys are the last credit agency to do the downgrade. The other agencies had done it in previous years.

So why were Moody's last in the downgrade?
Could it be that like the other ratings agencies, the ratings are designed for profit rather than evaluation?
Forgive my cynicism, but they are no better or worse than any other profit making org.
its just that the US ones are really good at it.
Mick

 

[Knobby22]

So why were Moody's last in the downgrade?
Could it be that like the other ratings agencies, the ratings are designed for profit rather than evaluation?
Forgive my cynicism, but they are no better or worse than any other profit making org.
its just that the US ones are really good at it.
Mick

Definitely....and politics. Maybe it should have been sooner.

just to add, Fitch downgraded to AA1 in 2023. S&P downgraded in 2011!

 

[Dona Ferentes]

 

[mullokintyre]

Definitely....and politics. Maybe it should have been sooner.

just to add, Fitch downgraded to AA1 in 2023. S&P downgraded in 2011!

From Quoth The Raven

Mick

 

[DannyB0000]

How can one country like the US keep borrowing more and more money and very likely never or struggle to pay down its debt load ?. National debt in that could will end up being astronomical.

I wish I could ask my bank for unlimited credit and never have to pay it back. $ 1 million a year in credit would be really nice.