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We will have it whether we want ot or not.. Looking at the media push and TDS present here, it seems the masses are unable to accept anything else than the kicking the can further policies:Yeah, but it will drop the house prices somewhat. You tend to see more businesses innovate during recessions, also.
When there was talk about China becoming a superpower years ago, I was sitting on a park bench with a friend, talking about how aggressive China was. This old Irish bloke politely introduced himself, asked to sit down next to us and started talking about how he moved to Australia after the war and said it was the best years of his life. He said it's what Australia needed; there was work everywhere. Not saying we need war, but some type of recession might be the only way forward.
Most of it comes from China, even some of the European stuff. A friend of mine toured the BMW factory in Germany, and on one of the factory lines were blank cast aluminium ingots from China being final machined into cylinder heads.
@Smurf1976 So at this point in time as a guessamate we are now at the bargaining and leading into the depression stage.A fair point for low end manufacturing jobs, but then the alternative for the same workers is low end service jobs that aren't any better. That is they might pay much the same per hour, but then you find out it's not actually 38 hours a week but it's something less than that. Or it's casual employment. Or it's purely based on actual sales either as commission or because you're paid per km driven, delivery made, customer served, etc.
What manufacturing does do however is create a pathway at least for some into higher level employment. Eg go in as something basic, manual labour basically, and there's your opportunity to convince the right people you've got what it takes to do a trade apprenticeship. Once you've got that, well then you're worth a lot more working in that factory, and it also opens doors to employment elsewhere.
Personally well I can immediately think of examples of people I know or have worked with. One started out working in electronics manufacturing some decades ago. Long story short they ended up not only becoming an engineer, but were in charge of their last workplace and also hold patents in their own name too.
Another that comes to mind isn't manufacturing but it's near enough. Turned up as a contract cleaner at a power station, and to clarify that's just normal cleaning of the office, lunchroom, toilets and so on it's nothing specialised or technical. Last I knew they were still working at the same power station - it's just that they're now a qualified technician, a permanent employee of the company that owns it (as distinct from being a contractor).
And so on.
There's also the flow-on economic effects. Personally I don't work in manufacturing, but I've ultimately been paid by more than one manufacturer via my actual employer at the time. And that was paid overtime too, so I wasn't complaining. I'm certainly not the only one in that situation - you wouldn't have to ask too many people in Hobart before you found someone who's gained economically from Incat, the zinc works, whatever ANM has been renamed to these days or Cadbury at some time in their lives. Even if they've never been on the payroll, there's an awful lot who've worked somewhere that did work as a contractor, that supplied something, etc. Same in other cities where there's industry, men in particular you won't have to look too hard to find someone who's made money out of it somehow even if indirectly.
In all of this as I see it, it comes down to what alternatives actually are available both in terms of employment and in terms of addressing "external" issues such as the balance of payments, supply security and so on.
What I don't follow how it would continue forever is a model where China (and other Asian countries) buy ores and fuels from Australia to produce goods which are sold to US consumers who as a whole can't really afford them. Whether it's currency debasement, borrowing, selling off assets or whatever, ultimately the US is living beyond its means and at some point that must surely become a crisis. In doing so that doesn't just kill manufacturing in China etc, it also cuts their need for Australian ores and fuels.
Same would then apply to Australia. If we start running big trade deficits, as we would if mining falters, then at some point that's got to end surely? There must surely be a limit somewhere to how much we can borrow, print the currency or sell off assets before the proverbial hits the fan. I mean the China, Thailand, Singapore, South Korea etc etc aren't going to just supply us forever out of the goodness of their heart, they're going to want something of tangible value in return.
The way I'm seeing it, this isn't a debate about whether manufacturing (or anything else) will improve life in the West but rather, it's that the present situation seems totally unsustainable. That being so, discussion of manufacturing isn't comparing it to the present but rather, it's comparing it to alternatives none of which are to carry on business as usual.
An analogy would be someone saying working doesn't sound anywhere near as much fun as going on holidays and partying, so why would they even consider working? True, generally work isn't fun, but it becomes a very different debate once it's accepted the inheritance isn't going to last and the banks won't lend without an income. Once you accept that point, once you accept that it's a job or it's outright poverty, that there is no option to continue living the high life, then all of a sudden getting a job becomes highly desirable.
As I see it, Trump's just brought all this forward. He's laid it bare what the situation is, rather than waiting for it to implode but it always was going to happen one way or another.
My expectation is we're going to go through the full cycle of grief, that being denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance in that order and that however long anyone expects that to take, it'll take far longer to play out.
I would guess we at the denial stage, the Government has a trillion dollars debt and are borrowing money to fund future handouts, non of the political parties are talking about spending on productive infrastructure, just what they are going to give away.@Smurf1976 So at this point in time as a guessamate we are now at the bargaining and leading into the depression stage.
Not sure they would be able to loan money for a home, that type of wage is barely existing in life type of wage.
Say you're on $28/hour, 58K/ year, 49K after tax, take out rent (520 x 52 weeks 27K) = 22k
Leaves you with roughly $423/ week - shopping $179 = $244
Say we have a cheap car and don't drive much. We'll half the average car running costs to ($200/ week) . 244-200 = 44
$44 left to pay for water and eletricity, yay!
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It's still tough even for 2 people working. I can remember years ago, a friend's wife studied while on maternity leave, had a few kids back to back. Got some type of bachelor's of business online and thought she was going to walk into a high paying job overnight. She already had a supervisor's role in one of the large supermarket chains, which they had held for her under some workplace policy, but it wasn't worth returning to because of the high cost of childcare.Great presentation Timesmoney. What you have outlined is that there is no universe in which a single lower paid factory worker can raise a family/live effectively on what is actually the bare minimum wage in Australia.
Once upon a time that factory worker could keep himself, wife and kids in a basic house with a basic lifestyle. In 2025 there has to be 2 wage earners to stay afloat. Very stark figures indeed.
Totally agree . Even when 2 wage earners and in particular relatively low paid ones are working full time making ends meet is a real struggle.It's still tough even for 2 people working. I can remember years ago, a friend's wife studied while on maternity leave, had a few kids back to back. Got some type of bachelor's of business online and thought she was going to walk into a high paying job overnight. She already had a supervisor's role in one of the large supermarket chains, which they had held for her under some workplace policy, but it wasn't worth returning to because of the high cost of childcare.
The writing is on the wall, another big dump is looming on the US stock market, MSM has reported the ports are very slow, and we just have to wait for the supermarket shelves to empty and the big employee dump to cement the facts. Not sure how the United Snakes are going to slither out of this one.
Only going to get worse.There was always going to be a cutback regardless of Trumps activities.
All he has done is accellerate the inevitable shutdown.
Mick
The American consumer has been topped out for some time on their credit cards, personal loans, pay day lenders, and now they are resorting to bnpl terms to get whatever stuff they can afford.
In yet another sign of a cracking and creaking US economy, Americans are increasingly tapping Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) financing to pay for daily essentials -- even groceries -- according to a new survey released Friday by Lending Tree.
“A lot of people are struggling and looking for ways to extend their budget,” said Lending Tree chief consumer analyst Matt Schulz. “Inflation is still a problem. Interest rates are still really high. There’s a lot of uncertainty around tariffs and other economic issues, and it’s all going to add up to a lot of people looking for ways to extend their budget however they can.”
There are plenty of concerning findings in the survey. For starters, there's the rising share of BNPL users who are buying now and paying late -- 41% say they were tardy over the past year, which is up from 34% in last year's survey. About three-quarters of the late-payers say they were late by no more than "a week or so." However, where that and other numbers are concerned, it's important to note that these stats are based on survey responses-- not the hard data of their BNPL providers.
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Dear trawler we are here dealing with macro economic issues... do you think given your position that Brexit is a success you have any 'cred'?I think @orr Is using AI, his spelling, punctualtion, content and legibility has improved markedly.
Good on him for improving his posts, at least now we can understand the point he is trying to make.
A special thanks to AI.
I think it depends on what aspect of it we look at.at this point in time as a guessamate we are now at the bargaining and leading into the depression stage.
I'm just thrilled you are getting your message across, you always appeared to have great thoughts, putting them in such a succinct way is a breath of fresh air.Dear trawler we are here dealing with macro economic issues... do you think given your position that Brexit is a success you have any 'cred'?
the two people mentioned in my above post ... one is a Nobel prize winner in Economics the other a writer of a recently published essay in 'Rolling Stone'
you make your choice as to where you place your time & effort.
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