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Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

We will have it whether we want ot or not.. Looking at the media push and TDS present here, it seems the masses are unable to accept anything else than the kicking the can further policies:
More debt , more migration, more public servants and welfare and exporting whatever is left of activity here against anywhere cheaper.
Not only manufacturing but IT jobs, your Bangalore telecom or energy support, your accountants, etc etc....
Who is the more demented, a Trump or an Albanese/Dutton PM?
As for manufacturing, i woud like you to look at Switzerland.
Not exactly a poverty ridden country, which actually was not that rich vs Australia or even France in the last years but has managed to keep a steady positive path,is now topping ranks, with restricted migration on only 2 key pillars:
Low government/public servants impact, and manufacturing: every village has its own factory
 
One point not to forget IMHO which sadly make Australia quite doomed and unable to succeed in a Trump model or a sustainable successful model.
We have far too oversized cities...
Australia is roughly a desert with oversized capital cities
Cities are supposedly a wealth creator, gathering specialised skills etc but they also, by sheer lack of physical space, prevent the establishment of factories.
Cities grow around factories, factories do not grow within cities.
And our mega centers Melbourne Sydney Brisbane or Perth are not each made of all specialised skills citizens, they are made mostly of public servants, services and retail, tradies and admin all economically parasites of the few left mines and decreasing agricultural exports.
Albury, Toowoomba, Cairns like Gladstone did could see some manufacturing bringing economic sustainability but you only need one capital per country..and definitively not per state.
 
Most of it comes from China, even some of the European stuff. A friend of mine toured the BMW factory in Germany, and on one of the factory lines were blank cast aluminium ingots from China being final machined into cylinder heads.

Same in the US a lot of manufacturing uses bits out of China (low end cost) finished off in the US , tariffs are killing them.
 
@Smurf1976 So at this point in time as a guessamate we are now at the bargaining and leading into the depression stage.
 
@Smurf1976 So at this point in time as a guessamate we are now at the bargaining and leading into the depression stage.
I would guess we at the denial stage, the Government has a trillion dollars debt and are borrowing money to fund future handouts, non of the political parties are talking about spending on productive infrastructure, just what they are going to give away.

There is nothing on the table, that addresses our structural problems, spending is going up and that will have to accelerate for military and energy issues, but no discussion on how the debt will be covered.

There is a reason Dutton is losing ground IMO, he really isn't offering an alternative.
 
Great news! In the Time interview he has already done the trade deals!

In the cover story, in which Trump's discussed his first 100 days in office, the president was asked about White House trade adviser Peter Navarro’s prediction of "90 deals in 90 days."

"I’ve made 200 deals," Trump said. When asked to confirm that number, Trump said "100%."

Trump, though, would not elaborate on what countries he's solidified deals with or the terms. He's met with various foreign officials at the White House in recent weeks on tariffs and other economic issues, but has not yet announced any agreements.

"I would say, over the next three to four weeks, and we're finished, by the way," Trump told Time. "We'll be finished."
 
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Read an interesting piece about the Orange Haired One earlier.
He has done tariff deals with 200 countries; Scouts Honour and it must be the truth because The trumpet said so.
Sadly for Him, the King of the USA and Provider of gentile humour around the world, His arithmetic is somewhat out of whack.
Last count there were 193 countries tarnished by his tariff bans..
 

Great presentation Timesmoney. What you have outlined is that there is no universe in which a single lower paid factory worker can raise a family/live effectively on what is actually the bare minimum wage in Australia.

Once upon a time that factory worker could keep himself, wife and kids in a basic house with a basic lifestyle. In 2025 there has to be 2 wage earners to stay afloat. Very stark figures indeed.
 
It's still tough even for 2 people working. I can remember years ago, a friend's wife studied while on maternity leave, had a few kids back to back. Got some type of bachelor's of business online and thought she was going to walk into a high paying job overnight. She already had a supervisor's role in one of the large supermarket chains, which they had held for her under some workplace policy, but it wasn't worth returning to because of the high cost of childcare.
 
Totally agree . Even when 2 wage earners and in particular relatively low paid ones are working full time making ends meet is a real struggle.

I remember back in the mid 80's I was doing door to door marketing surveys for Morgan Gallup Poll( for a few extra bucks..) On a few occasions I would stay and have a longer conversation with people just out of interest. One couple really struck a note for me. Both were low paid workers working full time. Their combined wage was reasonable but quite modest then but they acknowledged how difficult it was to balance the books. This was 1986/7.
 
There was always going to be a cutback regardless of Trumps activities.
All he has done is accellerate the inevitable shutdown.
Mick
The American consumer has been topped out for some time on their credit cards, personal loans, pay day lenders, and now they are resorting to bnpl terms to get whatever stuff they can afford.
In yet another sign of a cracking and creaking US economy, Americans are increasingly tapping Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) financing to pay for daily essentials -- even groceries -- according to a new survey released Friday by Lending Tree.

“A lot of people are struggling and looking for ways to extend their budget,” said Lending Tree chief consumer analyst Matt Schulz. “Inflation is still a problem. Interest rates are still really high. There’s a lot of uncertainty around tariffs and other economic issues, and it’s all going to add up to a lot of people looking for ways to extend their budget however they can.”

There are plenty of concerning findings in the survey. For starters, there's the rising share of BNPL users who are buying now and paying late -- 41% say they were tardy over the past year, which is up from 34% in last year's survey. About three-quarters of the late-payers say they were late by no more than "a week or so." However, where that and other numbers are concerned, it's important to note that these stats are based on survey responses-- not the hard data of their BNPL providers.
 
Only going to get worse.
I am hearing small businesses are going broke throughout the country.
 
I think @orr Is using AI, his spelling, punctualtion, content and legibility has improved markedly.
Good on him for improving his posts, at least now we can understand the point he is trying to make.
A special thanks to AI.
Dear trawler we are here dealing with macro economic issues... do you think given your position that Brexit is a success you have any 'cred'?

the two people mentioned in my above post ... one is a Nobel prize winner in Economics the other a writer of a recently published essay in 'Rolling Stone'
you make your choice as to where you place your time & effort.
 
at this point in time as a guessamate we are now at the bargaining and leading into the depression stage.
I think it depends on what aspect of it we look at.

Some of the US-specific detail of how Trump has gone about it you could well be right. Hard to say, but I'm not going to say no.

On the macro economics stuff though, I reckon we're still in the very early stages of denial. Looking at everything I've read about all this (everywhere, not limited to ASF), the overwhelming majority aren't even acknowledging there's a problem needing fixing.

There seem to be many who expect China etc to just supply goods forever, that payment is never required. That's akin to someone who treats a credit card as free money since they can easily afford the minimum monthly payment. It all works just fine until they reach their credit limit on not just one card but on every card they've been able to obtain from multiple banks. Now they're deeply in debt, paying a fortune in interest and spending forcibly collapses due to the inability to take on further debt. Even worse is they're still paying that debt years later despite the vast majority, perhaps even the whole lot, of what they bought with it having long since been consumed or worn out and thrown away.

On one hand I remain very unconvinced with the detail of how Trump's going about all this, indeed I think there's a credible chance he blows the whole thing up and makes it impossible to ever get the public to listen and understand the situation.

On the other hand, well there's been 49 years to address this, and no other president managed to do it so perhaps Trump's approach is necessary.
 
I'm just thrilled you are getting your message across, you always appeared to have great thoughts, putting them in such a succinct way is a breath of fresh air.
 
Thought this short was kind of interesting, assuming it is fact, as maybe Vegas is one of the canaries?. I have been assuming that there will be pain before the gain with Donald's necessary, to my mind, roiling of the economy. The reasons given: Americans with recession fears avoiding discretionary spending, Canadians boycotting, and "global issues". Wouldn't the soft dollar be ameliorating the damage? Working class taking the brunt.

 
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