Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[qldfrog]

Yeah, but it will drop the house prices somewhat. You tend to see more businesses innovate during recessions, also.

When there was talk about China becoming a superpower years ago, I was sitting on a park bench with a friend, talking about how aggressive China was. This old Irish bloke politely introduced himself, asked to sit down next to us and started talking about how he moved to Australia after the war and said it was the best years of his life. He said it's what Australia needed; there was work everywhere. Not saying we need war, but some type of recession might be the only way forward.

We will have it whether we want ot or not.. Looking at the media push and TDS present here, it seems the masses are unable to accept anything else than the kicking the can further policies:
More debt , more migration, more public servants and welfare and exporting whatever is left of activity here against anywhere cheaper.
Not only manufacturing but IT jobs, your Bangalore telecom or energy support, your accountants, etc etc....
Who is the more demented, a Trump or an Albanese/Dutton PM?
As for manufacturing, i woud like you to look at Switzerland.
Not exactly a poverty ridden country, which actually was not that rich vs Australia or even France in the last years but has managed to keep a steady positive path,is now topping ranks, with restricted migration on only 2 key pillars:
Low government/public servants impact, and manufacturing: every village has its own factory

 

[qldfrog]

One point not to forget IMHO which sadly make Australia quite doomed and unable to succeed in a Trump model or a sustainable successful model.
We have far too oversized cities...
Australia is roughly a desert with oversized capital cities
Cities are supposedly a wealth creator, gathering specialised skills etc but they also, by sheer lack of physical space, prevent the establishment of factories.
Cities grow around factories, factories do not grow within cities.
And our mega centers Melbourne Sydney Brisbane or Perth are not each made of all specialised skills citizens, they are made mostly of public servants, services and retail, tradies and admin all economically parasites of the few left mines and decreasing agricultural exports.
Albury, Toowoomba, Cairns like Gladstone did could see some manufacturing bringing economic sustainability but you only need one capital per country..and definitively not per state.

 

[IFocus]

Most of it comes from China, even some of the European stuff. A friend of mine toured the BMW factory in Germany, and on one of the factory lines were blank cast aluminium ingots from China being final machined into cylinder heads.

Same in the US a lot of manufacturing uses bits out of China (low end cost) finished off in the US , tariffs are killing them.

 

[farmerge]

A fair point for low end manufacturing jobs, but then the alternative for the same workers is low end service jobs that aren't any better. That is they might pay much the same per hour, but then you find out it's not actually 38 hours a week but it's something less than that. Or it's casual employment. Or it's purely based on actual sales either as commission or because you're paid per km driven, delivery made, customer served, etc.

What manufacturing does do however is create a pathway at least for some into higher level employment. Eg go in as something basic, manual labour basically, and there's your opportunity to convince the right people you've got what it takes to do a trade apprenticeship. Once you've got that, well then you're worth a lot more working in that factory, and it also opens doors to employment elsewhere.

Personally well I can immediately think of examples of people I know or have worked with. One started out working in electronics manufacturing some decades ago. Long story short they ended up not only becoming an engineer, but were in charge of their last workplace and also hold patents in their own name too.

Another that comes to mind isn't manufacturing but it's near enough. Turned up as a contract cleaner at a power station, and to clarify that's just normal cleaning of the office, lunchroom, toilets and so on it's nothing specialised or technical. Last I knew they were still working at the same power station - it's just that they're now a qualified technician, a permanent employee of the company that owns it (as distinct from being a contractor).

And so on.

There's also the flow-on economic effects. Personally I don't work in manufacturing, but I've ultimately been paid by more than one manufacturer via my actual employer at the time. And that was paid overtime too, so I wasn't complaining. I'm certainly not the only one in that situation - you wouldn't have to ask too many people in Hobart before you found someone who's gained economically from Incat, the zinc works, whatever ANM has been renamed to these days or Cadbury at some time in their lives. Even if they've never been on the payroll, there's an awful lot who've worked somewhere that did work as a contractor, that supplied something, etc. Same in other cities where there's industry, men in particular you won't have to look too hard to find someone who's made money out of it somehow even if indirectly.

In all of this as I see it, it comes down to what alternatives actually are available both in terms of employment and in terms of addressing "external" issues such as the balance of payments, supply security and so on.

What I don't follow how it would continue forever is a model where China (and other Asian countries) buy ores and fuels from Australia to produce goods which are sold to US consumers who as a whole can't really afford them. Whether it's currency debasement, borrowing, selling off assets or whatever, ultimately the US is living beyond its means and at some point that must surely become a crisis. In doing so that doesn't just kill manufacturing in China etc, it also cuts their need for Australian ores and fuels.

Same would then apply to Australia. If we start running big trade deficits, as we would if mining falters, then at some point that's got to end surely? There must surely be a limit somewhere to how much we can borrow, print the currency or sell off assets before the proverbial hits the fan. I mean the China, Thailand, Singapore, South Korea etc etc aren't going to just supply us forever out of the goodness of their heart, they're going to want something of tangible value in return.

The way I'm seeing it, this isn't a debate about whether manufacturing (or anything else) will improve life in the West but rather, it's that the present situation seems totally unsustainable. That being so, discussion of manufacturing isn't comparing it to the present but rather, it's comparing it to alternatives none of which are to carry on business as usual.

An analogy would be someone saying working doesn't sound anywhere near as much fun as going on holidays and partying, so why would they even consider working? True, generally work isn't fun, but it becomes a very different debate once it's accepted the inheritance isn't going to last and the banks won't lend without an income. Once you accept that point, once you accept that it's a job or it's outright poverty, that there is no option to continue living the high life, then all of a sudden getting a job becomes highly desirable.

As I see it, Trump's just brought all this forward. He's laid it bare what the situation is, rather than waiting for it to implode but it always was going to happen one way or another.

My expectation is we're going to go through the full cycle of grief, that being denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance in that order and that however long anyone expects that to take, it'll take far longer to play out.

@Smurf1976 So at this point in time as a guessamate we are now at the bargaining and leading into the depression stage.

 

[sptrawler]

@Smurf1976 So at this point in time as a guessamate we are now at the bargaining and leading into the depression stage.

I would guess we at the denial stage, the Government has a trillion dollars debt and are borrowing money to fund future handouts, non of the political parties are talking about spending on productive infrastructure, just what they are going to give away.

There is nothing on the table, that addresses our structural problems, spending is going up and that will have to accelerate for military and energy issues, but no discussion on how the debt will be covered.

There is a reason Dutton is losing ground IMO, he really isn't offering an alternative.

 

[Knobby22]

Great news! In the Time interview he has already done the trade deals!

In the cover story, in which Trump's discussed his first 100 days in office, the president was asked about White House trade adviser Peter Navarro’s prediction of "90 deals in 90 days."

"I’ve made 200 deals," Trump said. When asked to confirm that number, Trump said "100%."

Trump, though, would not elaborate on what countries he's solidified deals with or the terms. He's met with various foreign officials at the White House in recent weeks on tariffs and other economic issues, but has not yet announced any agreements.

"I would say, over the next three to four weeks, and we're finished, by the way," Trump told Time. "We'll be finished."

 

[farmerge]

Read an interesting piece about the Orange Haired One earlier.
He has done tariff deals with 200 countries; Scouts Honour and it must be the truth because The trumpet said so.
Sadly for Him, the King of the USA and Provider of gentile humour around the world, His arithmetic is somewhat out of whack.
Last count there were 193 countries tarnished by his tariff bans..

 

[basilio]

Not sure they would be able to loan money for a home, that type of wage is barely existing in life type of wage.

Say you're on $28/hour, 58K/ year, 49K after tax, take out rent (520 x 52 weeks 27K) = 22k

Leaves you with roughly $423/ week - shopping $179 = $244

Say we have a cheap car and don't drive much. We'll half the average car running costs to ($200/ week) . 244-200 = 44

$44 left to pay for water and eletricity, yay!

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Great presentation Timesmoney. What you have outlined is that there is no universe in which a single lower paid factory worker can raise a family/live effectively on what is actually the bare minimum wage in Australia.

Once upon a time that factory worker could keep himself, wife and kids in a basic house with a basic lifestyle. In 2025 there has to be 2 wage earners to stay afloat. Very stark figures indeed.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Great presentation Timesmoney. What you have outlined is that there is no universe in which a single lower paid factory worker can raise a family/live effectively on what is actually the bare minimum wage in Australia.

Once upon a time that factory worker could keep himself, wife and kids in a basic house with a basic lifestyle. In 2025 there has to be 2 wage earners to stay afloat. Very stark figures indeed.

It's still tough even for 2 people working. I can remember years ago, a friend's wife studied while on maternity leave, had a few kids back to back. Got some type of bachelor's of business online and thought she was going to walk into a high paying job overnight. She already had a supervisor's role in one of the large supermarket chains, which they had held for her under some workplace policy, but it wasn't worth returning to because of the high cost of childcare.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

 

[basilio]

It's still tough even for 2 people working. I can remember years ago, a friend's wife studied while on maternity leave, had a few kids back to back. Got some type of bachelor's of business online and thought she was going to walk into a high paying job overnight. She already had a supervisor's role in one of the large supermarket chains, which they had held for her under some workplace policy, but it wasn't worth returning to because of the high cost of childcare.

Totally agree . Even when 2 wage earners and in particular relatively low paid ones are working full time making ends meet is a real struggle.

I remember back in the mid 80's I was doing door to door marketing surveys for Morgan Gallup Poll( for a few extra bucks..) On a few occasions I would stay and have a longer conversation with people just out of interest. One couple really struck a note for me. Both were low paid workers working full time. Their combined wage was reasonable but quite modest then but they acknowledged how difficult it was to balance the books. This was 1986/7.

 

[TimeISmoney]

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The writing is on the wall, another big dump is looming on the US stock market, MSM has reported the ports are very slow, and we just have to wait for the supermarket shelves to empty and the big employee dump to cement the facts. Not sure how the United Snakes are going to slither out of this one.

 

[mullokintyre]

There was always going to be a cutback regardless of Trumps activities.
All he has done is accellerate the inevitable shutdown.
Mick
The American consumer has been topped out for some time on their credit cards, personal loans, pay day lenders, and now they are resorting to bnpl terms to get whatever stuff they can afford.
In yet another sign of a cracking and creaking US economy, Americans are increasingly tapping Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) financing to pay for daily essentials -- even groceries -- according to a new survey released Friday by Lending Tree.

“A lot of people are struggling and looking for ways to extend their budget,” said Lending Tree chief consumer analyst Matt Schulz. “Inflation is still a problem. Interest rates are still really high. There’s a lot of uncertainty around tariffs and other economic issues, and it’s all going to add up to a lot of people looking for ways to extend their budget however they can.”

There are plenty of concerning findings in the survey. For starters, there's the rising share of BNPL users who are buying now and paying late -- 41% say they were tardy over the past year, which is up from 34% in last year's survey. About three-quarters of the late-payers say they were late by no more than "a week or so." However, where that and other numbers are concerned, it's important to note that these stats are based on survey responses-- not the hard data of their BNPL providers.

 

[Knobby22]

There was always going to be a cutback regardless of Trumps activities.
All he has done is accellerate the inevitable shutdown.
Mick
The American consumer has been topped out for some time on their credit cards, personal loans, pay day lenders, and now they are resorting to bnpl terms to get whatever stuff they can afford.
In yet another sign of a cracking and creaking US economy, Americans are increasingly tapping Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) financing to pay for daily essentials -- even groceries -- according to a new survey released Friday by Lending Tree.

“A lot of people are struggling and looking for ways to extend their budget,” said Lending Tree chief consumer analyst Matt Schulz. “Inflation is still a problem. Interest rates are still really high. There’s a lot of uncertainty around tariffs and other economic issues, and it’s all going to add up to a lot of people looking for ways to extend their budget however they can.”

There are plenty of concerning findings in the survey. For starters, there's the rising share of BNPL users who are buying now and paying late -- 41% say they were tardy over the past year, which is up from 34% in last year's survey. About three-quarters of the late-payers say they were late by no more than "a week or so." However, where that and other numbers are concerned, it's important to note that these stats are based on survey responses-- not the hard data of their BNPL providers.
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Only going to get worse.
I am hearing small businesses are going broke throughout the country.

 

[orr]

I think @orr Is using AI, his spelling, punctualtion, content and legibility has improved markedly.
Good on him for improving his posts, at least now we can understand the point he is trying to make.
A special thanks to AI.

Dear trawler we are here dealing with macro economic issues... do you think given your position that Brexit is a success you have any 'cred'?

the two people mentioned in my above post ... one is a Nobel prize winner in Economics the other a writer of a recently published essay in 'Rolling Stone'
you make your choice as to where you place your time & effort.

 

[TimeISmoney]

"Thousands of companies are going to “relocate” back into the United States"

US job openings fall to 7.2 million in March, the lowest level since September​

 

[Smurf1976]

at this point in time as a guessamate we are now at the bargaining and leading into the depression stage.

I think it depends on what aspect of it we look at.

Some of the US-specific detail of how Trump has gone about it you could well be right. Hard to say, but I'm not going to say no.

On the macro economics stuff though, I reckon we're still in the very early stages of denial. Looking at everything I've read about all this (everywhere, not limited to ASF), the overwhelming majority aren't even acknowledging there's a problem needing fixing.

There seem to be many who expect China etc to just supply goods forever, that payment is never required. That's akin to someone who treats a credit card as free money since they can easily afford the minimum monthly payment. It all works just fine until they reach their credit limit on not just one card but on every card they've been able to obtain from multiple banks. Now they're deeply in debt, paying a fortune in interest and spending forcibly collapses due to the inability to take on further debt. Even worse is they're still paying that debt years later despite the vast majority, perhaps even the whole lot, of what they bought with it having long since been consumed or worn out and thrown away.

On one hand I remain very unconvinced with the detail of how Trump's going about all this, indeed I think there's a credible chance he blows the whole thing up and makes it impossible to ever get the public to listen and understand the situation.

On the other hand, well there's been 49 years to address this, and no other president managed to do it so perhaps Trump's approach is necessary.

 

[sptrawler]

Dear trawler we are here dealing with macro economic issues... do you think given your position that Brexit is a success you have any 'cred'?

the two people mentioned in my above post ... one is a Nobel prize winner in Economics the other a writer of a recently published essay in 'Rolling Stone'
you make your choice as to where you place your time & effort.

I'm just thrilled you are getting your message across, you always appeared to have great thoughts, putting them in such a succinct way is a breath of fresh air.

 

[finicky]

Thought this short was kind of interesting, assuming it is fact, as maybe Vegas is one of the canaries?. I have been assuming that there will be pain before the gain with Donald's necessary, to my mind, roiling of the economy. The reasons given: Americans with recession fears avoiding discretionary spending, Canadians boycotting, and "global issues". Wouldn't the soft dollar be ameliorating the damage? Working class taking the brunt.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Canadians boycotting !
- don't they feel welcome?