qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

[qldfrog]

high chance for this SIG to be a loser and RBL carries on its fall..not surprising
I hope in a dozen year I will have automated conditions detecting these and avoiding these big losses
but for the time being....

 

[Trav.]

@qldfrog yes mate I hope that we find the holy grail, but I think that we just have to better at managing of losses. How this looks for each person might be different but I am thinking that I will sacrifice some % profit on back testing to have a lower draw down on my trades. peter2 has outlined his methods and honestly you can't really go wrong following those.

Stop losses. The're a buggar. Every SL method tests badly as you know. If you want to avoid the huge market draw downs (GFC -50%, great depression -90% and lots of -20% that happen regularly) you've got to employ a SL method.

P2 - EXITS of a short to medium term trader

 

[qldfrog]

Yes i followed this thread with high interest
As you know from my numerous entries on his subject, i want to have a stop loss but all the ones i backtested were awful.
I also noticed with regularity in the past, on discretionary play where i i w using initial SL plus trailing SL that far far too often, there was some shaking triggering my SL then back well above within seconds
One time..fair..bad luck
When repeated again and again, this is market manipulation and i am the sucker
So I could maybe implement a notification then send the order manually, but in a fall i am screwed
Or return to my automatic SL with no hope of being played fair
I was using bell direct and my SL were done 7 or so y ago

 

[qldfrog]

Peters post, the one you highlighted and other answers on more specialised one tell me i should at least have a very wide automated SL in place.
I can now have nearly a year of trend system so i i shou be able to set various levels and test them well maybe an isl based on previous high then a trailing on
Should be able to code that

 

[Trav.]

All good mate, but I know for myself that following a system faithfully will not work 100% so I have to make some discretionary moves especially around announcements that can't be back tested.

I did contact Norgate to see if they had a flag / field that indicated if a price sensitive announcement was released so I could analyse some of the back testing results but unfortunately they don't have such an option. Imagine if we could incorporate that then test I think that would help us out. Maybe someone has access to this from another provider but for me that is the piece of the puzzle missing in a systematic system.

Good luck with you trades mate and I will stop bugging you..

 

[Warr87]

One method is to use an ATR to determine your SL. I believe 3 * ATR(14) is a common one. It hasn't worked the best in my systems but might be an option for you. If an ATR is a measure of how much price fluctuates, it makes sense to use this to stay in the game and avoid noise (but have some protection against free falling stocks).

 

[peter2]

I'm sorry to say that we can't protect ourselves from large spikes down. All we can do is minimise the damage. We do this by having 20 or more positions.

It's rare to see such a large % drop on a stock trending up. Obviously it happens occasionally.

Take the loss and get out of the trade. You'll feel much better. There's another reason also. We don't want to holding when the follow up bad news is released. See SIQ chart.

 

[qldfrog]

Take the loss and get out of the trade. You'll feel much better.

Ohh yeahh, that's definitively true
Thanks all for your inputs above
One last question @peter2 , are your SL entered in your broker platform, or do you have notification or your own live server sending the sell
Reason i ask was this suspicion i had that some people could manipulate/shake the market?
With the volume filter and the shares i have been using in my systems, it should realistically be safer now anyway. No shaking on BHP shares;-:-D
Yet a manual entry after notification could help in crash aka RBL for example

 

[frugal.rock]

I have followed SIG for a while and personally think you have bought in around the bottom of their current cycle. (Was looking at 0.53 entry around June and of course, kicking myself now!)
With their "transformation" plans and the supply contract with Chemist Warehouse, I consider it a solid medium to long term choice with dividends. Good luck with everything and take care with thee impending heatwave this week...
F.Rock
PS; the cheese and kisses is a retail manager at a Priceline pharmacy thus my interest in SIG, API and (BTC to a lesser extent) BTC was kind to me earlier this year.

 

[qldfrog]

Trying to work on SL code today.in backtest on simple flipper it makes a difference...but code must be wrong as i can not find any instance when actually used...using custom backtest code to see and analyse trigerred SL

 

[qldfrog]

Anyway will keep you informed.sold rbl this morning

 

[qldfrog]

Sold rbl at 1$ and was 1.065 last time i checked
My usual non systemic outcome...
But i feel better..kind of

 

[frugal.rock]

Opened my trap about SIG too early
I didn't know that API was invested in them.
The outcome today of API dumping their SIG holding makes sense though with the SIG contract with Chemist Warehouse.
I guess that they dumped for ethical reasons/ conflicting interests with Chemist Warehouse being the competition. They dumped a sound investment IMO.
F.Rock

 

[Roller_1]

Reason i ask was this suspicion i had that some people could manipulate/shake the market?
With the volume filter and the shares i have been using in my systems, it should realistically be safer now anyway. No shaking on BHP shares;-:-D
Yet a manual entry after notification could help in crash aka RBL for example

Hi QF
I'm not sure what broker you are using, I use IB and although I'm trading a different type of system I enter the market with "Limit If Touched - LIT", this way IB holds the order until a certain strike price is hit and then send the order to the exchange so it isn't sitting in the queue for a long period of time. No idea if this helps with manipulation but it is my theory anyway. so you might be able utilise something similar for a stoploss. Another option to test is instead of having a live stop, just one so that if the weekly close is below a certain level then exit the following Monday on open, or something similar. In my tests that test out better than having a live stop. I think Nick Radge highlights this in the Weekend Trend Trader

 

[qldfrog]

Thanks
Indeed my trial this morning confirmed

Another option to test is instead of having a live stop, just one so that if the weekly close is below a certain level then exit the following Monday on open, or something similar.

So basically not a live sl but exactly as you defined is something i can live with
Just to be aware, the trailing sl for best results that way is pretty wide aka 50pc of hights or similar number based on my backtests

 

[willoneau]

Thanks
Indeed my trial this morning confirmed

So basically not a live sl but exactly as you defined is something i can live with
Just to be aware, the trailing sl for best results that way is pretty wide aka 50pc of hights or similar number based on my backtests

Hi qldfrog , what about using the % of high with a reducing factor as your R multiple increases or gets close to a target. This reduces that increase in distance between your current price and trailing stop as price increases.

 

[qldfrog]

I ultimately went to a highest minus a multiple of atr
I feel comfortable with this and will enter these at the end of the week for the next open
Not a miracle solution but benign enough not to kill backtest performance, and give me a bit of safety
I will implement something similar on my 3 systems and might even jump and add some automatic ones with the broker

 

[willoneau]

When I looked at my back test I found possible exits between 400% and 500% profit that dropped to between 2 and 3. By tightening once around those levels profitability would increase on system . I also understand this reduces the chance of higher R multiples but i have found a few R multiples around 20 out weights chasing a 30 R multiple which was rare.

 

[willoneau]

Also after reading some of Van Tharp books I have had a closer look at my position sizing Algo and have modified it to scale up and down depending on being in profit or DD

 

[frugal.rock]

Sig @ 0.60172
Could be worse as suggested.
I bought in long at 0.57 total cost, day trade.
11:35 @ 0.57, volume 20k and 11.45 @ 0.565, 10k volume.
The first trade (pretty sure I triggered the high 0.57 of the day at the time) seemed to trigger someone's order as immediately after a huge order dumped on 0.565, took it out completely and left around 70000 volume available to buy at 0.565. Thus my leverage in again at 0.565
Was waiting for an opportunity just before close, and the haters will tear me to pieces for saying this, I read something in the DOM. I decided to wait for post auction, from which I decided to utilise the only good thing about Westpac trading (IMO), the 1 day offset option.
There's only one reason to do this.
Will let you contemplate what.
Further, the topic is weekly system so not sure why you would sell at a small loss the day after you bought...
Just sayin. The shorties definitely grabbed it by the short and curlies first up.
Good luck, or is it luck at all?
F.Rock