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qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

Discussion in 'Trading Diaries and Journals' started by qldfrog, Feb 25, 2019.

  1. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    note: system1 has some Belamy final price should be around 13.25after takeover. so I sell try to sell a bit below to get out and be able to use cash asap, if I have the opportunity
     
    jjbinks, debtfree, Newt and 1 other person like this.
  2. jjbinks

    jjbinks

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    Nice work.
    I was thinking about your losses 2 weeks ago. Was too busy to post at the time. (My system I am trading also got hit quite hard that - week 5% draw down!)
    This is an effect of my system. I have a 10% initial max stop loss but afterwards I don't have a trailing stop loss.
    But the real reason the losses were so big are because of position sizing. I only have 10 positions and I don't rebalance positions. I had 2 winners which were taking almost 30% of my portfolio which had sharp losses that week and hence the big draw down.
    You trade 20 positions 5% per position so I guess this is less of an issue for you.
     
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  3. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    No problem @jjbinks and thanks for your concerns
    All going good,still no stop loss here and if lucky with big winners might reach the same issue but so far behaving nicely
     
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  4. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    this morning system1 sold:
    9016 ALK @.645 for a $430.8 profit
    427 BAL @13.2 for a $120.91 profit
    2127 IFM@2.07 for a $445.4 loss
    only 13 positions left
    no change on system 2
    also note one of the 13 position is wll which is going to be paid back and deregistered after a takeover
     
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  5. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Friday night again,
    static week for both 2 systems
    ###########################
    System I (the original)
    loss of $295
    Start 25/02/2019
    Total invested $ 100,000.00
    Cash remaining $35,817.40
    Current portfolio value $111,488.34
    Profit $11,488.34
    Nb of active positions 13
    Nb max position 20
    Return since 25/02 11.49%
    Annual return so far 15.71%
    purchase value per position $5,574.42
    Invested percentage 67%
    dividends $ 1,048.80
    Average per week: 410.2978571

    upload_2019-11-22_19-13-5.png
    Mostly in sync with the XAOA with a better week this week
    1 buy on open mondaywe will end up with only 14 positions...
    ###########################
    system II
    a gain of $199.97
    Start 5/08/2019
    Total invested $ 100,532.76
    Cash remaining $12.66
    Current portfolio value $101,405.55
    Profit $817.91
    Nb of active positions 20
    Nb max position 20
    Return since 5/08 0.87%
    Annual return so far 2.96%
    purchase value per position $5,070.28
    Invested percentage 99%
    dividends $ 97.21
    Average per week: 163.58172
    upload_2019-11-22_19-15-8.png

    We are in profit and catching up

    3 buys and sell on Monday
    Have all a great week end
    I will try to use some of Peter's beautiful summary spreadsheet in the future to present a more synthetic view of the results
     
    Warr87, Newt, Skate and 3 others like this.
  6. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    All right, a bit of an hectic day as I forgot my smartphone..so naked..a real millenial..
    a wink toward another thread only
    BUt I managed to enter my orders
    System 1 bought
    DHG : 1559 @3.5 for a total of 5466.5
    System2 sold:
    NEU :for a gain of $1119.265
    MTO for a loss of $660
    RWC for a loss of $332
    and bought
    JHG @36.95 losing25$ vs real open
    PDL @8.16 losing 29$ vs real open
    TNE @8.99 basically open price

    Not too bad, but got hit today by BBN fall: a loss of nearly 500 for both systems...Chinese secret services could not stay quiet...
     
    Miner, jjbinks, peter2 and 3 others like this.
  7. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    WLL scheme implemented got $5090.8 (inc div) so a profit of $226
    13 positions. 35.5k in cash
     
    Skate likes this.
  8. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Another week, nice but still behind xao which was flying this week
    Still using the old display as i was working a few days this week and have been short of time to integrate Peter's more fancy result display

    System 1: gain of $1554

    Start 25/02/2019
    Total invested $ 100,000.00
    Cash remaining $35,441.70
    Current portfolio value $113,042.34
    Profit $13,042.34
    Nb of active positions 13
    Nb max position 20
    Return since 25/02 13.04%
    Annual return so far 17.37%
    purchase value per position $5,652.12
    Invested percentage 68%
    dividends $ 1,048.80
    Average per week: 465.7976786
    upload_2019-11-29_17-50-19.png
    One buy on Monday


    System 2: not as good but still gain of $766
    Not that bad
    Start 5/08/2019
    Total invested $ 100,532.76
    Cash remaining $29.61
    Current portfolio value $102,171.55
    Profit $1,584.01
    Nb of active positions 20
    Nb max position 20
    Return since 5/08 1.63%
    Annual return so far 5.22%
    purchase value per position $5,108.58
    Invested percentage 99%
    dividends $ 97.21
    Average per week: 316.80252
    upload_2019-11-29_17-51-31.png
    After all, even with a bad start, getting more that a decent term deposit...
    notice I forgot to sell abp since 9th august arrrrgggg I have to cut the loss
    doing a full recheck of all my entries..that will cost me dear
    and found another unsold....
    human error, not even code
    4 sells, 4 buys on monday
     
    Newt, Skate, jjbinks and 1 other person like this.
  9. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    system1 buying 1965 AVN @2.9 for a total of $5708.5 after brokerage, 14 invested positions out of 20

    system2 selling NMT @0.2 for $72 gain, BLX for $348 loss, BBN for $1009 gain and ABP @3.9for $356 loss
    please note that both ABP and NMT should have been sold well before; I messed up;
    abp should have sold at the open on the 12/08 at 4.12 so I lost $348 with my mistake..would nearly have been break even
    and for NMT should have sold @0.19 so I won by luck $184
    my mistake cost me $200 , missed opportunities..maybe the 10 bagger...
    All good now.
     
    Newt and Skate like this.
  10. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    And system 2 bought CTX, JHX, MOE and OZL today back to fully invested
     
    Skate likes this.
  11. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Weeks are flying..Probably because of my pre retirement life...:)
    a weird week
    System1: drums rolling: profit of $1,672.69 and now overtaking the XAOA from its inception
    very happy;
    System 2 not so; lost $1,651.09and become negative since inception
    Not good

    System 1:

    Start 25/02/2019
    Total invested $ 100,000.00
    Cash remaining $29,734.26
    Current portfolio value $114,715.03
    Profit $14,715.03
    Nb of active positions 14
    Nb max position 20
    Return since 25/02 14.72%
    Annual return so far 19.11%
    purchase value per position $5,735.75
    Invested percentage 73%
    dividends $ 1,379.10
    Average per week: 525.5366071
    upload_2019-12-6_18-0-8.png
    2 sells on Monday

    ---------------------
    System 2:
    Start 5/08/2019
    Total invested $ 100,532.76
    Cash remaining $10.77
    Current portfolio value $100,520.46
    Profit -$12.3
    Nb of active positions 20
    Nb max position 20
    Return since 5/08 -0.01%
    Annual return so far -0.04%
    purchase value per position $5,026.02
    Invested percentage 99%
    dividends $ -
    Average per week: -2.46
    upload_2019-12-6_18-10-21.png
    on monday, sell 2 buy 2
     
    peter2, Saqeeb, debtfree and 2 others like this.
  12. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    action this morning: system1 sold BBN for a profit of $1135 and NAN for a loss off $27
    12 out of 20 positions are active only so only 63pc invested

    system2 sold RBL for a profit of $1588 and DMP for a profit of $459;
    bought AQG @7.61 and OML @ 3.86
    fully invested 20 out of 20
     
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  13. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Horrendous week looking at storms going one after the other past my mountain where the creek is dying I would the last 10 or so went within 5km and hardly any drop
    @Wayne will know what I mean/feel
    So the ASX decided to join the party: RBL crashed from 1.86 to 1,03 loosing $3k on its own in system1;
    Luckily system 2 was exiting it this Monday with 1.6k profit...but still
    Overall
    System1: drums rolling with dramatic effect : LOSS of $3936 on only 60k+ invested...yeap
    yes, it hurts

    System 2 soso; lost of $655 and negative since inception
    Not good

    System 1:


    Start 25/02/2019
    Total invested $ 100,000.00
    Cash remaining $41,195.07
    Current portfolio value $110,778.96
    Profit $10,778.96
    Nb of active positions 12
    Nb max position 20
    Return since 25/02 10.78%
    Annual return so far 13.66%
    purchase value per position $5,538.95
    Invested percentage 62%
    dividends $ 1,387.81
    Average per week: 384.9628571
    upload_2019-12-13_18-6-13.png
    1 buy on Monday..yes and RBL is not flagged as a sell????? Anyway, such is the system


    ---------------------
    System 2:

    Start 5/08/2019
    Total invested $ 100,532.76
    Cash remaining $681.30
    Current portfolio value $99,865.15
    Profit -$667.61
    Nb of active positions 20
    Nb max position 20
    Return since 5/08 -0.66%
    Annual return so far -1.89%
    purchase value per position $4,993.26
    Invested percentage 98%
    dividends $ 46.18
    Average per week: -133.521

    on monday, sell 3 buy 3
     
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  14. Trav.

    Trav.

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    Really? what trailing stop are you using or something else as I am very surprised that you are still holding this one.

    upload_2019-12-13_16-44-50.png
     
  15. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Trav, I have no trailing stop on that system as they seriously deteriorate the overall returns,
    I thought I would be out too due to other exits programmed but not yet so, as per my existing settings, I stay in.
    This has been tested again and again in raising, falling and going no where periods so I stay in and 'obey' the system...
    Statistically, I should be right...but that specific one could be a dud and MC backtest always have a chance to really get it wrong....
    Note I entered at 1.40 if it helps..:-(
     
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  16. Trav.

    Trav.

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    Unfortunately when you backtest you are unable to factor in announcements (Norgate data) as this would be an exit in pretty much any system.

    ie Price sensitive announcement AND Price falls x% then SELL.

    I think that you will be holding for a significant amount of time to try and claw back some of those losses (if one of your other exits don't kick in first) and then you may miss other opportunities.

    Note...This is not a attack on you or your system but just observations that I have found in my journey which I am trying to find a way to improve. Good on you for updating us on your progress as it does raise some interesting scenarios for all of us.

    Cheers
     
  17. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Thanks,Based
    Based on similar cases it might exit in a couple of weeks as it gives up on any up trend after,
    Unmanned stop losses would have failed as it started too low after the announcement..that i did not feel was that bad..
     
  18. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    new week hopefully better than last one..
    System1 bought 1432 IMF @3.82 for a cost of $5480.24
    System2 sold 253 LLC @$19.120 for a win of 10.36
    sold 4173 TGP @$1.120 for a loss of -61.73
    sold 5700 MHJ @ $0.63 for a loss of -399.0044
    and bought
    SHV @ 8.62
    SIG @ 0.60172
    VRT @ 4.62

    we also started a system 3 basic 20% flipper with a few minimal tweak, idea being simplicity first
    System3 bought
    1679 ADH @2.35 inc cost
     
    Padowan, frugal.rock, Trav. and 2 others like this.
  19. Trav.

    Trav.

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    Interesting buy this one and something that we have no control over with announcements just before the open.

    Unfortunately ( or fortunately for you) it gapped down @ open allowing you a entry of $0.60172 but closed very weak which is a bugger.

    I suppose it could have been worse if you managed to buy at open at around $0.66

    -9.8 % for the day and closed @ $0.595 so not far of your buy price.
     
  20. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Yes was looking at it sec ago, as you say thanks god i did a manual buy as i had no cash available until my sells at open completed
    I could have checked before pressing on buy but i traded live while filling a 1 tonne water container at 9:03 on top of the ute trying to have enough water for my hobby farm.. stress can also come outside of trading
    Only reached 40.5C today ;-)
    Basically only realised now what happened
     
    lusk, frugal.rock and Trav. like this.
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