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qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

Discussion in 'Trading Diaries and Journals' started by qldfrog, Feb 25, 2019.

  1. willoneau

    willoneau

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    Hi frugal.rock, when you leverage back in again was it part of your risk strategy or new trade?
     
  2. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    To be clear, i kept SIG as i bought at 60c, all good
    But i did sell my rbl this morning
    If of interest, between my loss this morning and the win on the other packet sold at 1.8, i am still ahead
    So not so bad
     
    Warr87 likes this.
  3. willoneau

    willoneau

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    RBL - qldfrog was that a daily system trigger or part of your weekly system that uses daily information?
    just looked at chart nasty drop and no way to do anything about it when gaps occur.
     
  4. willoneau

    willoneau

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    Do you have a stop location for SIG?
    interesting that you bought SIG as it doesn't look like a weekly trend following signal as i thought from previous post you were following, just my thoughts.
     
  5. willoneau

    willoneau

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    I bought MEA at beginning of month which has different chart profile.
     
  6. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Rbl was part of my weekly trend based systems, purchased by both systems.sold by 1 system at 1.86$ and manually stopped loss this morning at $1
    Sig was purchased as part of one trend system.
    Got it at 60c
    No ISL
    Finished this evening work on SL ultimately based on atr
    I will manually add these SL tomorrow then plan to update these SL level manually weekly
     
  7. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Note
    For the time being. I have stopped working on the weekly but with daily check system.
    So i have now 3 systems
    System1 and then system2, trend based, with system2 more dynamic
    These developed with the help of many here plus a lot of tweaking.
    And on monday start of a very basic flipper system.
    Many thanks to all for your inputs
    Have a great week
     
  8. willoneau

    willoneau

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    Did you use a stale stop to get out at $1.86?
     
  9. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Yes i have an automated check and basically was not worth keeping based on this system parameters, sadly system1 is more conservative/less edgy and in that case, it cost me
    But all that is coded so it says sell or buy and i obey
    With yesterday work and code changes, i will start adding SL both on purchase and as well a trailing one updated weekly
     
    Warr87 and willoneau like this.
  10. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Friday night and waiting for Santa rally, ..i still want to believe in Santa
    OK week for both 2 systems
    ###########################
    System I (the original)
    win of $842.02 after a 12PC fall of ZIM today..damned
    Start 25/02/2019
    Total invested $ 100,000.00
    Cash remaining $39,200.83
    Current portfolio value $111,620.98
    Profit $11,620.98
    Nb of active positions 12
    Nb max position 20
    Return since 25/02 11.62%
    Annual return so far 14.38%
    purchase value per position $5,581.05
    Invested percentage 64%
    dividends $ 1,387.81
    Average per week: 415.0348214

    upload_2019-12-20_18-7-46.png
    Mostly in sync with the XAOA with a better week this week
    4 buy on open monday but one is NVL which is being purchased so I bypass
    we will end up with 15 positions...
    ###########################
    system II
    a gain of $996.93
    Start 5/08/2019
    Total invested $ 100,532.76
    Cash remaining $26.97
    Current portfolio value $100,862.08
    Profit $329.32
    Nb of active positions 20
    Nb max position 20
    Return since 5/08 0.33%
    Annual return so far 0.89%
    purchase value per position $5,043.10
    Invested percentage 99%
    dividends $ 189.93
    Average per week: 65.865

    upload_2019-12-20_18-10-44.png

    We are back in profit

    3 buys and sell on Monday
    progressing on the SL work, some included already on the weekly action

    Have all a great week end
     
    debtfree, Warr87, peter2 and 2 others like this.
  11. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Not to forget: the flipper wants me to buy NVL, but as above I do not proceed as it is a takeover in process
     
    Skate likes this.
  12. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    I completed basically a week of refining thanks to drought and fires heat locking me inside
    I specifically added a SL (not automated but triggered manually on my weekly review) and have now 3 optimized systems;
    1. These resulted in # buys on Monday for system 1 (1 buy being a catch up actually after the optimisation work)
    2. 8 sells and 8 buys for system 2: this is where my tweaking got the most of impacts,
    3. and still no action on system 3(flipper)
    Now a bit of dreaming...and i know, de listed codes are not there, etc etc so reality would have been different
    but with these systems, I allowed a bit of (irrational and maybe unhealthy) thinking
    -> putting 100k in each system on the 1/01/2005, I would have reached last November 2019
    respectively 7.2m, 7.5m and 10m whereas the xaoa would only have tripled..but obviously compounding would push that xaoa gain further
    This is a nice incentive to refine work and stick to tested systems, please note that this period included the GFC
    anyway a little bit of dreaming does help when the drought is affecting our psyche....
     
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  13. Trav.

    Trav.

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    Good on you mate for trying out something new, and being realistic with the back testing results as we are aware that they can be over optimised and set you up for disappointment if you don't achieve the same returns.

    I am curious if you used the standard stop loss loop or defined your own?
     
    Skate and qldfrog like this.
  14. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    I found stop losses based on amibroker in build..which is equivalent to the one you would put via your broker using conditional sells are often very damaging to the overall performance, i so added a new exit, which will be triggered on Mondays open, but is really a SL, with a trailing component
    Overall even during minicrash periods, it leads to better outcomes
    Hope it helps.
    It does not have the mind pleasing effect of an hardwired..kind of...broker SL but in case of real 20pc down crash etc, usual stops can not be actioned so why bother
    And it will be enough based on back tests to preserve gains limit losses on the life of the systems
    The negative is that it adds more strains on the psyche, if on Monday asx crashes 15pc,10pc on Tuesday, how strong will i be to not press the sell all button...
    There is actually such a button on my bell direct broker page...
    Hope it helps
     
    Newt, Trav. and Skate like this.
  15. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    system 1 at the open today bought:
    LIC 610 @$8.92 for a total cost of $5451.2
    MSB 2718 @$ 2.01 for a total cost of $5473.18
    UOS 6292 @$ 0.88 for a total cost of $ 5546.96
    System2 had a huge readjustment I will details later
     
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  16. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    system 2 sold CAT,CTX,JHG,JHX,NSR,SIG,VRT,XRO for a total loss inc brokerage of 172$ so basically just brokerage...and any lost opportunity
    system 2 purchased AX1,CWP,KMD,LIC,MYS,PRU,UOS,VRL
    Rolling on
     
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  17. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Wishing all the people involved in this process a Merry Christmas, thanks for the mentoring, the questions and even pieces of codes from many here
    Enjoy
     
    Padowan, lindsayf, Newt and 1 other person like this.
  18. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    As I had a bit of free time:
    as you remember, my optimised flipper system on back-test would have gone from $100k in 2005 to 10M by now, the best raw return on that period among my systems

    Now imagine that guy actually lives in Australia;
    with this system, you basically buy and sell a lot so we can assume that we will roughly pay tax on the yearly capital gain, no discount year after year and discover the marvel of taxation;
    As a smart cookie, that investor is paying tax at 33% only (I can hear the booo from our leftist friends already)
    So using this 100k to 10M compounded amazing returns, if our investor is paying tax at 33pc only, that very same ideal system started at 100k will reach 3.1M.
    Less than a third from the same system user based in a tax heaven.....
    The miracle of compounded taxation
    So if you plan to spend more than 15y in retirement and retiring early, think well where you want to be, there is a lot of private insurance you can buy with 7M
    Similarily, the taxed investor will have paid the ATO 1.2M along the 15y, not that great a number actually: 1000 of these guys are required every month to pay our federal debt (interest only)
    This ATO kill in the bud tax rate will have burnt 10-1.2-3.1=6.7M lost to everyone.

    Now imagine that investor as a factory or any Australian business taxed at 33pc and trying to grow...Now you understand why ndis nor your pension will never be financed in the future..
    Interlude over
     
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  19. willoneau

    willoneau

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    What about husband and wife running it as a business and splitting tax on profits in stead of capital gains?.
     
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  20. Warr87

    Warr87

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    there are ways to minimize tax. talk to a CPA. but i'm not sure what your point is. There are other places in the world that have higher tax than we do. Some have lower. But those who do tend to have lower do not to have the services that we have. The govt. isn't a charity, and to have the lifestyle we have things need to be paid for. if your complaint is having to pay millions of dollars in taxes, you are likely going to have that complaint fall on deafs ear...lol. if you would like a rethink of corporate tax, that sounds fine.

    I would follow @willoneau train of thought and run it through a family trust with a bucket company

    (also my understanding is that given the frequency you would like treat the gains as income not capital gains, unless the particular stock was kept for a particularly long time but that is something your accountant can answer)
     
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