Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Dona Ferentes]

My apologies, 160 + weeks left in Trump's term not 42.

gg

half terms ?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

half terms ?

Man on roof !

gg

 

[TimeISmoney]

My apologies, 160 + weeks left in Trump's term not 42.

gg

Someone has made a public counter.

Time Until Trump Leaves Office

Countdown timer showing how much time left until Saturday, January 20, 2029 12:00:00 PM in timezone New York, America (UTC-05:00)

www.tickcounter.com

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Should you wish for a pennant @Sean K look no further than the POG. It has to break out soon.



gg

 

[Sean K]

Should you wish for a pennant @Sean K look no further than the POG. It has to break out soon.

View attachment 203947

gg

Yes, there are great expectations that it should break up at some stage from this point for both TA and FA reasons, which makes me worried.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Someone with a lot of money is screwing with the shorters.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Someone with a lot of money is screwing with the shorters.


View attachment 203957

I stayed up trading on the NASDAQ last night/this morning and I believe that move may have been related to a rumour that Trump was about to sack Powell, the head of the Fed. It looked imminent probably engineered by Trump. At the last minute he got the press together and told them Powell was staying. Maybe he hoped he would resign. It affected everything from the AUD/USD to all the currencies particularly USD/JPY. Quite an exciting time with everyone going off as if it was going to happen.

It may be worth while looking at all the moves about that time to try and predict what might happen in the future re rates, gold, bitcoin etc.

Sorry. Just looked at the time on the chart. It was a bit early for a Trump/Powell move I think. I'll hafta check.

gg

 

[TimeISmoney]

Snap back to reality, and there goes gravity.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The Chinese and the number 3 Gold $3333.33. Every time I check the POG it seems like Groundhog Day.



gg

 

[Bailxtrader]

Golds on the move. Analysed say Bullish in the longer term?

Gold holds steady as forecasts soar past US$3,700

Gold has steadied after its meteoric rise in 2025, trading at US$3,340 on Thursday, up >26% year-to-date. The safe haven touched a record high of US$3,500 in late April, and analysts say further gains are likely.

themarketbull.com.au

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Golds on the move. Analysed say Bullish in the longer term?

Gold holds steady as forecasts soar past US$3,700

Gold has steadied after its meteoric rise in 2025, trading at US$3,340 on Thursday, up >26% year-to-date. The safe haven touched a record high of US$3,500 in late April, and analysts say further gains are likely.

themarketbull.com.au

Forecasts. Smorecasts. I'm sick of them. Let me see the money.

gg

 

[Sean K]

Looks like we might be going to have another crack at $3450.

Three months of consolidation might form a decent base to launch off if it breaks through.

Even so, if it keeps consolidating over $3K unhedged gold miners will be making a mint at these levels.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Looks like we might be going to have another crack at $3450.

Three months of consolidation might form a decent base to launch off if it breaks through.

Even so, if it keeps consolidating over $3K unhedged gold miners will be making a mint at these levels.

View attachment 204321

Only one more three to go @Sean K as the arborist said to the bishop.

gg

 

[ducati916]

With the lease rate for platinum in London reportedly spiking over 40% for the 1-month tenor, we have evidence of a developing liquidity squeeze for the delivery of physical metal in the world’s largest platinum trading market.

The global shortage of platinum bars for delivery has intensified to the point that those attempting to secure delivery of this strategic metal have started to raid Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

Precious metals refiner Heraeus illustrates in their July 21, 2025 market update Precious Appraisal No. 26 just how tight global platinum supply has become.

In Figure 1 below it can be seen that even as the price for platinum and palladium have increased markedly over the past few months attracting investment demand, platinum and palladium ETF holdings have been diametrically opposed over the past 6 weeks.

Even as the price of platinum has continued to surge, global ETF holdings of these bars have declined by approximately 350,000 oz. during this period.

It appears that globally, platinum ETFs are being raided for bar delivery as a secondary source to the illiquid London platinum cash market.
For while the London market has ample liquidity of paper notes for bar delivery, the spiking lease rate tells us that there is a severe shortage of platinum bars to actually fulfill the promissory notes issued there.

​

Figure 1 - Global Platinum and Palladium ETF Metal Holdings; source: Heraeus Precious Metals

Silver Free Float And Metal Shortage In London​

TD Securities has recently issued a note that estimates there is a 155 million (M) oz. ‘free float’ of silver available for purchase and delivery in the London market.

With the silver lease rate’s recent rise to 7% in London, a market signal of intensifying shortage gives a counter-point of severe and growing physical metal shortage.

London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) data state that in Q1 2025, average daily trading volume in the London market was 580M oz. of silver.

Trading of gold and silver in London is primarily of cash claims for immediate ownership and delivery of physical metal and, while the LBMA will not disclose the total claims for silver in London, it appears that there are well over a billion oz., likely billions of oz., of cash claims for silver in this market.

There are 7,613 tonnes (245M oz.) of silver in London vaults that isn’t owned by ETFs. Much of this remainder is privately owned and not available to market.
Given the current silver lease rate spike that is occurring in London despite these holdings, it is likely that far less than 155M oz. of physical silver bars can be freely obtained from London against the sea of paper cash claims there.

​

Figure 2 - London Silver Vault Holdings at June 30, 2025; source: GoldChartsRUs.com/LBMA

There is a tremendous imbalance of promissory note claims to vault metal holdings for delivery in the Bank of England’s creation - the London promissory note cash silver market.

The elevated silver lease rate in London is signaling that any attempt now to draw a material amount of physical metal (i.e. much less than 155M oz.) from London vaults is going to generate a market event.





jog on
duc

 

[Smurf1976]

those attempting to secure delivery of this strategic metal have started to raid Exchange Traded Funds

Does this mean the ETF's are effectively failing to back their own position with physical metals?

Eg that an ETF had (for simplicity) 100 "paper" units in existence owned by investors, backed by 100 units of physical metal in a vault, but is now backing that 100 units owned by investors with something less than 100 physical units in the vault?

Or am I misunderstanding that?

 

[houtman]

Does this mean the ETF's are effectively failing to back their own position with physical metals?

Eg that an ETF had (for simplicity) 100 "paper" units in existence owned by investors, backed by 100 units of physical metal in a vault, but is now backing that 100 units owned by investors with something less than 100 physical units in the vault?

Or am I misunderstanding that?

My understanding is some ETF's allow redemptions but require a threshold holding.

If you had say 1 unit backed by 1/10th oz then no go, however 100,000 units then all good.

The redemption would cancel that holders ETF holding so that remaining physical matched remaining paper.

The info would be in the ETF prospectus.

 

[qldfrog]

And i believe it has been so in a while..far more paper gold oz sold than physical gold..i try to use pmgold as, to my knowledge and in Australia only, there is a 1 for 1 match..if not, i hope..note the "hope" that with delay maybe, our position as gold mining country would allow redemption ultimately..

 

[qldfrog]

Relevant for Australia only.
Since an ounce of gold here is above $5000 AUD, i believe any physical gold purchase..or sale can no longer be anonymous.
Not happy about that but not unhappy with the rise

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Relevant for Australia only.
Since an ounce of gold here is above $5000 AUD, i believe any physical gold purchase..or sale can no longer be anonymous.
Not happy about that but not unhappy with the rise

May I ask you to elaborate on that @qldfrog

gg

 

[qldfrog]

May I ask you to elaborate on that @qldfrog

gg

When i last bought 2 ounces, at a physical gold seller and provider of physical storage..aka safe
I bought i oz, my wife bought 1 oz so both purchases were at the time below 5k AUD which meant they did not have to be reported to the government.
That was what i was told by the dealer
Added
Dealer is Gold Bullion Australia on the sunny coast