Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Garpal Gumnut]

Gold has traded mainly between $3330 and $3340 for the last 3 months with occasional forays up or down. It will be interesting to see what effect Mr. Trump's announcements of July 9th will have. Will gold move in anticipation of the announcement? The market opens shortly after the weekend break.



gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I notice that when analysts discuss the Gold price they often refer to the BRICS, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa plus others see below, as if they act in unison, and as one. They are separate from each other in distance as well as ideology. The headline today in the FT.com sums up the article pretty well so I won't post it. The headline is not quite correct as there are only 10 full members.

The original member states of BRICS, an international organization of world economies, consisted of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. South Africa formally joined in 2010 and attended the 3rd BRICS summit. The organization expanded again in 2024, with Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates attending the 16th BRICS summit as official members. In January 2025, Indonesia joined the organization. Many other countries are partner states or have applied to join and some have observer status. They vary from Islamic to Communist to Nationalistic to Younameit in ideology and alliances.



Their effect on Gold nonetheless is significant and the sum of their buys and sells can effect the price but cannot be relied upon for indications as to whether one should buy or sell on a day by day or week by week basis.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

For those who like buying the dip gold looks enticing at the $3315 level. The chart although trending down is slowing and heading in to a new day on gold markets with Hong Kong soon to open I see no reason for buyers not to predominate today. This may be good for gold stocks as well. They were badly beaten down yesterday on the retracement. Overall a rosy picture for gold bugs with tariff instability continuing.

Depending on machinations from large central banks playing dropsies it may of course fall. There has been some talk of gold reaching a high recently.

A chart of just under 1 mo. duration.



gg

 

[Bailxtrader]

Gold is good...But for me gold is sailing side ways stuck in a moderate range, much like the AUD/USD. Can it peek today, support isn't far away...

 

[Bailxtrader]

XAU/AUD making a bit of a pendent, waiting for a break below 0.5025....

 

[finicky]

pendent

pennant

 

[Dona Ferentes]

pennon

 

[countrylad]

penance

 

[ShareSuccess]

"Pendent" is an adjective that describes something hanging down, either literally or figuratively. It can mean suspended or jutting out from above. It's important to distinguish "pendent" from the noun "pendant," which refers to an item of jewelry that hangs down, like a necklace pendant.

A pennant is a long, narrow, tapering flag, often triangular in shape. It can have various meanings, including: a flag used for signaling or identification on ships, a flag representing a sports team's victory or championship (especially in baseball), or a symbol of a league-winning team.


Penance is an act or a series of actions undertaken to show remorse for wrongdoing, often in a religious context. It can be a voluntary act of self-punishment or a task assigned by a religious authority, meant to demonstrate repentance for sins. In Christianity, particularly Catholicism, penance is also the name of the sacrament of Reconciliation, also known as Confession.

May we all.....

 

[Bailxtrader]

My bad! I used the term pendent as figure of speech, being sarcastic if you like. ( Just trying to get my message across)

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Peyon : Originally Haitian creole now American Black patois.
It means a "sucker" or a "weenie." "That nigga was scared to fight, he is a peyon".

Patois : The dialect of the common people of a region, differing in various respects from
the standard language of the rest of the country.

Not much move on gold today $3328.

gg

 

[ducati916]

Something is going on in Commodities that only comes along once every few years, and when it does — big shifts happen, new bulls begin, and select investors make a lot of money.

We’re talking about rotation signals, and specifically the commodity-to-gold ratio (in this case I am using an equal-weighted commodity index based on spot price indexes of the GSCI components, ex-gold).

As the chart below plainly lays out, whenever the C/G ratio plunges to an extreme low and then turns up it has in the past flagged the start of new and substantial cyclical bull markets in commodities.

Ultimately, what we’re talking about here is rotation... I’ve noted elsewhere the bullish setup in the oil/gold ratio and copper/gold ratio, but the bigger picture theme here is a shift away from the tailwinds and forces that have pushed gold prices up ~100% over the past 2-3 years, and the arrival of tailwinds and upside risks for the rest of commodities.

There are several key forces building in the background: capex (thematic uplift from the energy transition, electrification, geopolitics, on/re/near/friend-shoring, AI, space), global economic upturn (thanks to stimulus, easier financial conditions, resilience vs recession), and growing risk-on signs (global equities advancing, sentiment recovering post-tariff tantrum shakeout; a late-cycle reset).

And some of the key risk drivers that had been fueling demand for gold are set to fade e.g. growth downside concerns being offset by growth upsides, tariff risk becoming boring, and geopolitics behaving.

But the key point really is that after being left behind, it’s now time for the rest of commodities to take the baton from gold — and this is not the only chart worth considering…

​

Key point: Expect upside performance rotation from gold to commodities.

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Bonus Chart 1 — Leads and Lags​

To put it slightly differently, here’s that equal-weighted commodity price index and the gold price on one chart. You can see the divergence between gold and commodities very clearly here.

As I noted, I believe the most likely outcome here is catch-up by commodities, and indeed some of the drivers of gold (e.g. monetary tailwinds, weakening dollar, geopolitics) are going to ultimately be helpful for the rest of commodities too.

But it’s not just the divergence — although intermarket analysis can be highly useful in spotting risks and opportunities like this, we also need to consider valuations…

​

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Bonus Chart 2 — Valuations​

The final chart of interest in this week’s session shows my valuation indicators for gold and commodities. As you can see, gold is expensive and commodities are cheap.

But like any other asset or market, valuations are only one factor, and typically just the starting point — you also need the macro drivers to line up (yep), and the technicals to help with timing and building conviction (also yep).

In other words, what I am telling you here is that commodities are cheap, the macro is starting to come into place, and technicals are turning bullish. That’s the full package, that’s the kind of setup we look for, and this is definitely something we’re keeping close tabs on. And you know, it’s almost ironic to think that just as everyone seems to have forgotten about the “Commodity Supercycle“, we’re now looking at a potential new commodity cyclical bull market…

​

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Gold is 'expensive' relative to commodities because gold is already transitioned into the reserve asset. As such, it will continue to increase in price as against commodities.

Take the Gold/Oil ratio



This was when China called BS on the US.

Look at what happened to UST



As against USD





Commodities as the USD falls become more expensive in USD terms, which is the same as USD static, commodities rise in price.




The Yuan as against gold, is far lower than the USD. This is because China has not pegged the Yuan to gold. It floats. Which allows China to trade freely from currency constraints as any trade deficits can be settled in gold net net. A huge advantage. It means that their bond market yield is far, far lower than the US.




Debt/GDP




Which bond market blows up first?


LOL.


jog on
duc

 

[TimeISmoney]

Gold Rises as Trump's Tariff Threats Stoke Safe-Haven Demand​

by MTNewswires

Gold traded higher early on Friday, rising for a third day despite a stronger dollar as safe-haven buying continues amid U.S. President Donald Trump's erratic tariff polices.

Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$37.30 per ounce.

The rise comes after Trump on Thursday said he will impose a 35% tax on imports from Canada beginning on Aug.1. In an interview with NBC News, Trump also said he will also impose blanket tariffs on most trade partners of 15% to 20%.

The tariff threats — which are hampering global trade — and continuing violence in the Middle East are supporting safe-haven buying, with gold up 37% over the past 12 monthsh.

"There is a broader feeling that there has been a significant increase in gold-relevant geopolitical risks this year, which has led to increased allocations among investors and reinforced the momentum among central banks, with gold now holding the second-largest portion of central bank reserves after the dollar," Christopher Louney, a commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets wrote.

The dollar was higher early, with the ICE dollar index last seen up 0.15 points to 97.8. Treasury yields also rose, with the U.S. two-year note last seen paying 3.902%, up 1.9 basis points, while the yield on the 10-year note was up 4.5 points to 4.396%.

 

[ducati916]

Are you ready....start your engines:




So this is easy to do, an overnight (weekend) fix for the debt issue.

So BTC is $118,000.

Take gold to $140,000oz +/- and you pay off the $37 Trillion in debt one time.

Whatever the actual number will be, the point is that it is probably going to happen. I would say he probability has gone up to 70%+.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Full:https://www.mining.com/crypto-firm-tether-said-to-have-8b-worth-of-gold-stockpiled-in-swiss-vault/



However, its growing allocation to gold could raise regulatory challenges due to the soaring popularity of stablecoins in recent years. Draft legislation in the US such as the GENIUS Act, and European frameworks like MiCA, would restrict stablecoin reserves to cash or near‑cash instruments – excluding commodities like gold. If these rules take effect, Tether may need to adjust its holdings to maintain compliance in regulated markets.


In addition to USDT, the company also issues the XAUT stablecoin, which is backed one-to-one by an ounce of gold and can be redeemed for physical gold, collected directly in Switzerland. To date, it has issued tokens equivalent to 7.7 tons of gold or $819 million, a paltry amount relative to the more liquid gold-backed exchange-traded funds.


jog on
duc

 

[Bailxtrader]

Metals to rebound in 2025​

Since the beginning of the year, silver prices have risen by +25%, copper by +17% and platinum by +33%. As we have pointed out, this momentum is based on structural production shortfalls for silver and platinum, and sustained industrial demand for copper.
On closer examination, it is clear that silver and platinum prices are still below their historic highs of 2011, unlike gold, which has already broken through its record highs. Thus, the potential for catching up remains significant: silver could still rise by almost +40% to regain its peak of $46 per ounce, while platinum has a theoretical potential of +90% from its last peak. Copper, meanwhile, is now sustainably above its 2011 levels, reflecting its increasingly central role in the economy.
In 2025, the underlying trend for metals remains favourable. A sustained breach of the $34 mark for silver, as well as consolidation above $1,300 for platinum, could confirm this upward momentum. However, risks remain: a global economic slowdown or an intensification of trade tensions could put the brakes on this surge. At the same time, the fact that copper is holding above its 2022 record high reinforces the idea of a new cycle of sustained high prices, based on structural demand.

Conclusion​

The dynamic is set to intensify for many metals in 2025: silver, platinum, copper, etc. This trend is based on both persistent tensions on the supply side and structurally high demand. Neither trade threats nor the risk of recession appear, at this stage, to be dampening market prospects. On the contrary, the year 2025 confirms a gradual and lasting reallocation towards strategic metals. Are metals the new black gold of tomorrow? That's the big question.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks @TimeISmoney , @Bailxtrader and @ducati916 . The confluence of opinion is to be bullish on gold. Traditionally war, changes in the price of the $USD and bonds, and market instability have been enough to propel gold forward. Now we have Trump. Another 42 weeks of chaos and instability.

It is interesting that gold is being used as a hedge by some crypto companies. Governments would prefer that crypto is backed by currencies, particularly the $USD over which there is some control via banks, Swift and the Fed. Western powers dislike gold as they cannot control it. Viz China, Other Brics and retail control of gold. I’m waiting for the next move against a free gold market when Mr. Trump applies tariffs.

China will have more difficulty making a move on their retail holders but with their particular form of fascism they will try. All in all this will be bullish for gold.

Imagine the contrary side were gold to drop below $3000 towards $2500. You would be run over in the rush by buyers.

For the US Government Gold has escaped. The only revaluation can be up and retail with foreign entities will rule.

gg

 

[Sean K]

Gold bugs on ASF have been pretty close to this story for a while and are probably doing OK out of it. It's getting a lot of mainstream press now, so will be interesting to see if the general market catches up with this play.



To understand why gold keeps hitting new highs, look no further than the central banks.

For three years now, central banks globally have purchased more than 1000 tonnes annually.

That’s double the average of the previous decade and about $US80bn ($123bn) at current prices.

According to the latest survey from the World Gold Council, a record 95 per cent of central banks expect their peers to keep buying gold over the next 12 months. More strikingly, 43 per cent of them plan to boost their own gold reserves within the year – the most since the survey began in 2018.

The price of gold has more than doubled since late 2023. It has risen every month this year.

Spot price hit an all-time high of $US3500.50 in April when trade war angst soared.

The Australian dollar gold price hit a record $5439.82 per ounce when the Aussie dipped in April.

As for what’s driving the gold rush by central banks among the world’s financial guardians, RBC Capital Markets points to gold’s performance during times of crisis, its role as a portfolio diversifier, store of value and inflation hedge attributes, historical position, lack of default risk and liquidity.

 

[ducati916]

So:





Full:(5) Monetary McFly on X: "@ChadSteingraber This is SO important and no one is talking about it - so let me be crystal clear Under the Genius Act, Banks can use their Reserve Balances at the Fed - AS COLLATERAL - to back stable coins. This means, 17 years of trapped Bank Reserves totaling $3.5 Trillion are about to…" / X




Full:https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12522


So back in 2009 when QE was first used by Bernanke and the Fed, it was widely thought, incorrectly as it turned out, that QE was going to be insanely inflationary.

Wrong. Bank reserves were caught in the banking system because the Fed then paid interest on these reserves. Risk free money to the banks.

This however is slightly different.

Those bank reserves, all $3.5 Trillion, would (will) be released into the market. This will be inflationary.

Gold loves inflation.


jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks @TimeISmoney , @Bailxtrader and @ducati916 . The confluence of opinion is to be bullish on gold. Traditionally war, changes in the price of the $USD and bonds, and market instability have been enough to propel gold forward. Now we have Trump. Another 42 weeks of chaos and instability.

It is interesting that gold is being used as a hedge by some crypto companies. Governments would prefer that crypto is backed by currencies, particularly the $USD over which there is some control via banks, Swift and the Fed. Western powers dislike gold as they cannot control it. Viz China, Other Brics and retail control of gold. I’m waiting for the next move against a free gold market when Mr. Trump applies tariffs.

China will have more difficulty making a move on their retail holders but with their particular form of fascism they will try. All in all this will be bullish for gold.

Imagine the contrary side were gold to drop below $3000 towards $2500. You would be run over in the rush by buyers.

For the US Government Gold has escaped. The only revaluation can be up and retail with foreign entities will rule.

gg

My apologies, 160 + weeks left in Trump's term not 42.

gg