Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[ducati916]

When the cash / spot silver price is above the futures contract price, it is an indicator that physical silver for delivery is in short supply.

You can see below that today, the cash silver in New York was above the July futures price in the CME COMEX market.

​

Figure 1 - CME COMEX Silver Cash / Spot And Futures Prices June 26, 2025; source: tradingcharts.com

Increasingly, the market will realize metal is more valuable than paper or digits.


jog on
duc

 

[Bailxtrader]

In a climate of widespread mistrust of the dollar and US economic policy, a fundamental trend is gathering pace: de-dollarization. China, at the forefront of this strategy, is methodically reducing its dependence on the greenback while at the same time stepping up its purchases of gold and the internationalization of its gold market.

China Accelerates its De-Dollarization and the Internationalization of its Gold Market | GoldBroker.com

In a climate of widespread mistrust of the dollar and US economic policy, a fundamental trend is gathering pace: de-dollarization. China, at the forefront of this strategy, is methodically reducing its dependence on the greenback while a...

goldbroker.com

 

[Bailxtrader]

The price of gold has fallen over 1.2% so far in today’s session and the metal is down 2.4% on the week. The precious metal is also turning flat on the month after closing unchanged in May, too. The loss of bullish momentum has been triggered by a few factors, including profit-taking, but most importantly it is this: reduced haven demand. While the long-term gold forecast remains positive, in the near-term some further weakness should not come as surprise, particularly if stocks continue rising and the metal breaks a key bullish trend line that has consistently provided a floor in 2025.

Risk assets rally, causing gold to falter​

Thanks to the sudden de-escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, investors have rushed back to the racier tech sector, which has helped to push the Nasdaq 100 to new highs. The loss of haven demand has meant that despite the latest leg down in the dollar, gold has not benefited from this at all. I reckon a bit of a pullback would not be too bad an outcome as that will allow long term technical overbought conditions on higher time frames to work off, allowing the metal to shine again when macro conditions are more favourable once more. The upcoming PCE index should not have too significant of an impact on gold as long as the data doesn't hurt risk appetite. Next week’s key US macro data including the latest nonfarm jobs report should have at least some influence.

Technical gold forecast: XAU/USD testing 2025 trend line​

The price of gold is now testing its 2025 bullish trend line around $3280 area, making this a key level to watch today. A close below it would be a bearish technical development, in which case a deeper correction in early July would be a likely scenario towards some of the levels I have marked on the chart. However, a positive close today, or at least a finish around the $3,300 mark would keep the bulls in charge. The metal would still need to take out $3340 resistance to ignite fresh momentum on the long side, given the current price structure.

All told, consolidation continues to remain the name of the game for now. But the technical gold forecast could turn bearish should we see a close below the bullish trend line.

 

[ducati916]

Full:https://www.reuters.com/world/china...-euro-yuan-dollar-dominance-wanes-2025-06-24/

China Accelerates its De-Dollarization and the Internationalization of its Gold Market | GoldBroker.com

In a climate of widespread mistrust of the dollar and US economic policy, a fundamental trend is gathering pace: de-dollarization. China, at the forefront of this strategy, is methodically reducing its dependence on the greenback while a...

goldbroker.com

jog on
duc

 

[ShareSuccess]

Markets

Why gold prices are forecast to rise to new record highs​

Gold is increasingly in focus among traders, investors — and central banks.

The precious metal, which has been used as a financial asset for millennia, is prone to dizzying rallies and deep slumps. But despite the commodity’s volatility, gold has repeatedly set records in recent years.

Since March, investors have been increasing their holdings of gold, driven by concerns about the health of the economy and market volatility. Longer term, Goldman Sachs Research expects prices to be propelled by multi-year demand from central banks. Our analysts’ gold price prediction is for these two factors to push the metal to new record highs.



Goldman Sachs Research’s gold price prediction 2025

Even so, Thomas says gold is likely to break more records this year. Goldman Sachs Research predicts gold will rise to $3,700 a troy ounce by the end of 2025 (from $3,220 on May 15) as central banks buy many tonnes of the precious metal every month.

The commodity is also likely to climb as ETF investors increase their holdings in anticipation of interest rate cuts and amid growing recession concerns. In the event of a recession, Goldman Sachs Research forecasts that gold could rise to as much as $3,880 a troy ounce.
Private investors might also turn to gold to diversify away from US assets, particularly if traditional equity portfolio hedges such as US Treasuries continue to underperform during equity drawdowns. While not the team’s base case forecast, Thomas says even a small rotation out of US assets into gold would have a big, positive impact on the gold price given the relative sizes of the markets. For example, global gold ETF holdings are worth only about 1% of outstanding US Treasuries and 0.5% of the S&P500 market cap.

“While the key factor since 2022 used to be central bank buying alone, ETF investors are now joining the gold rally,” Thomas says. “As both compete for the same bullion, we are expecting gold prices to rise even further.”

 

[DaveTrade]

@ShareSuccess I can't hold back any longer, I don't know how others feel but your profile picture is doing my head in and has been since you put this one up. It's just not you. Please consider changing it, it's really freaking me out, like some people get freaked by clown pictures. There I've finally got it off my chest, please have mercy on me.

 

[finicky]

@DaveTrade well I like it. Ok?

 

[ShareSuccess]

Does this work for ya dave

 

[ShareSuccess]

 

[TimeISmoney]

View attachment 202660

 

[ducati916]

In early May 2025, this Substack noted an article in the South China Morning Post (SCMP) that China was opening its own global network of gold vaults allowing Chinese yuan to be turned in for gold delivery.

To quote the SCMP article at the time:

“By establishing a global network of gold delivery and storage facilities where Chinese Yuan can be directly exchanged for physical gold, China is moving to make the Yuan more widely accepted globally as a medium of exchange and also allowing Chinese purchases of oil and food, currently paid with US Dollars (USD), to be made with Yuan.”

Two months later the SCMP announces that China has moved quickly and opened its first offshore vault in Hong Kong.

Gold can be exported globally from Hong Kong whereas gold cannot be exported from China proper (with one exception that gold must first be imported from outside China and held in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone before deliver).

​

China is clearly moving rapidly to smooth the way towards adoption of the yuan for international trade settlement with convertibility of the yuan into gold on the world stage.

Standby for China’s next overseas vault opening.


From JC's Crew;

I used to hear this line: “When you’re healthy, you have a hundred problems. When you’re not, you only have one.” And it’s true. During every surgery, every setback, I had just one goal—get back on my feet and come back stronger. And I did. A few times. But the wear and tear adds up. Mentally. Physically. Spiritually. Nietzsche said, “What doesn’t kill me makes me stronger.” Sure. In some ways, that’s true. You do build resilience. But it can also make you cautious. Bitter, even. Afraid to take the same swings you used to. Talk to an older trader who’s been around long enough, and you’ll hear it. They’ve seen crashes. They’ve felt the pain. And that fear? It doesn’t just go away. It eats into performance. It makes them miss the setups they used to pounce on. That’s why Jim Rogers said, “When things are going right, we all need a 26-year-old... especially in a bubble.” Because they’re fearless. They think the bull market will last forever. And they believe it with everything they’ve got. The key? Stay in the middle. Not too high. Not too low. Not too bullish. Not too bearish. Take the signals. Trust the process. And go make some damn money. Copper is coiling. And it’s not just any setup—this is a 20-yearcontinuation pattern. Look at that chart.

​

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Since the early 2000s, copper has moved from dead money to global bellwether. Every major leg higher—2003, 2009, 2020—has been tied to real global growth. Infrastructure booms. China ramps. Liquidity waves. And now? We’re right back at the top of that long-term range. This isn’t some random resistance. It’s the line that’s capped copper for two decades. And now we’re pressing against it again—with rising lows, stronger demand, and a weaker dollar backdrop building behind the scenes. They call it Dr. Copper for a reason. It doesn’t lie. Copper doesn’t rally on narrative—it rallies when global growth is real. When construction, electrification, manufacturing, and capex are in motion. And if this breakout confirms? We’re not just talking about copper going higher. We’re talking about a new global growth regime—led by emerging markets, infrastructure, energy transition, and industrial demand. This is a big one. Multi-year base. Strong macro tailwinds. Clear levels. If copper clears this zone, it’s not just breaking out. It’s sending a message: The world is building again.

This is where pure charting falls over.

Yes copper could be rising due to economic expansion.

It could also be rising due to physical shortage.



Solar relies on silver;

Full:https://electrek.co/2025/06/20/batteries-are-so-cheap-now-solar-power-doesnt-sleep-ember/


Not really gold, but;



Full:https://www.wsj.com/business/energy...1?st=t6BKz5&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink






But





jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

There is a definite move back towards risk on investments such as the stock market from Wall St. and Funds although main st. investors are still doubtful about this strategy. So in the short to medium term there is little to support the price of gold and funds will rotate back in again to the developing boom in semi conductors and other stocks. Having said that, it will take little to change people's perceptions of risk. The tariff issue being resolved and belief that Trump can fix all woes has taken hold. Who are we to argue. But then ...

gg

 

[DaveTrade]

View attachment 202659Does this work for ya dave

Better

 

[ShareSuccess]

Better

I'm Trying to replace but the system won't allow it?

 

[finicky]

Market Matters morning comment

Market Matters | Leading Australian Stock Market Views And Advice

Get the latest Australian stock market views from top investors with real money in the markets. ASX investment advice and share recommendations. Find out more.

marketmatters.com.au

/report/macro-monday-should-we-chase-stocks-into-fresh-all-time-highs/

BTW, Felix Zulauf two months ago was expecting a 'medium term' top around U$3,400 with a target as low as U$2,600 whereupon gold should be bought again, whereas David Hunter, last I saw, was anticipating a top of U$3,700 before a global deflationary bust after which gold would soar. So it's pick your guru I guess.

Gold ($US/oz)
"Interestingly, Americans who once snapped up gold bars and coins are selling. At the same time, their Asian counterparts show no letup in buying, a sign investors on opposite sides of the world have different outlooks on the global economy. The divergence suggests that US residents who stash bars and coins at home or in safe deposit boxes are more comfortable with US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, rising government debt, and geopolitical tensions, or they want to grab some big profits after the last few years’ advance. However, wealthier investors, sovereign funds and central banks continue to buy the haven asset aggressively.

Friday night saw this selling by US “mums and dads” vindicated in the short term as gold fell by around $US60, positing fresh June lows in the process. Our preferred scenario is that the precious metal extends its downside move towards $US3100 as the washout of the crowded positioning continues. However, it’s important to reiterate that MM will be looking to increase our exposure to the sector if such a move unfolds.

We can see gold testing the $US3100 area in the coming weeks/months.
MM is bullish towards gold, medium/long term"

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

They always forget about Tasmania.



gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

They always forget about Tasmania.

 

[DaveTrade]

I've continued to work on my money flow indicator and believe that my latest version is an improvement on the the previous one so I'm going to show what it indicates for gold. The previous indicator is a part of the new one, I've just added more to it.
Gold is still trending water at the moment and it could break up and go for another run or more likely break down to make a substantial pullback before continuing up. Looking at a monthly chart it can been seen GLD has had a one and a half year move up so far and is currently stalled at a Fib extension that is a common point where pullbacks start.


The weekly chart is showing my new money flow indicator trending down as the market moves sideways. That zone just below (291-284) is a major support zone and if the market hits that zone and turns up with the MA still strongly sloping up then we could be going for another move higher, but if the market breaks down through this zone then we may be going down to the 250's or 240's.


I'm throwing in a daily chart for completeness, the next couple of days will show the way.

 

[rederob]

As one who has averaged about half a dozen trading transactions per year over the past 30 years, I no longer go into the minutiae that is most likely to have a near term impact on the price of anything.
So in the case of gold I post this simple weekly chart.



It shows an increase of about $1000 in the past 6 months, finally rewarding we long-term gold bulls.
A useful indicator of where POG is probably going in the medium term is the US bond rate, and it remains positive for POG's rise.
The more difficult indicator is not one but those dozens of factors leading to global destabilisation.
Despite Trump being a self proclaimed deal master his track record to date is worse than that of a blind horse navigating a maze.
On the war front his achievements are ZERO unless you believe the fairy tales of MAGAniacs.
On the trade front Trump has grossly overestimated America's importance to the rest of the world, except in military equipment sales.

His 90-day temporary suspension of raised tariffs lifts on 9 July 2025, and you can count his success rate to date on his middle finger.
In the meantime it's impossible for American businesses to make reshoring decisions because Trump has created an air of uncertainty best learned about as part of in-flight entertainment when we wonder who was to blame.
So the big money players would be very foolish to bet on Trump when the USA offers no safe havens.

I get a sense that Trump will principally unravel the US economy, and leave the $trillions invested in their bond holdings with a difficult escape route. I say this because while western media strongly influences what we here read about the world, most countries - the poor and developing - are moving off SWIFT as soon as practicable, thereby rendering the US-dollar denomininated reserve currency a backstop to their ongoing trading activities.

 

[ducati916]

One of the great mysteries of the City of London’s precious metals market over the decades has been to estimate the trading volume and open interest (standing claims) for immediate ownership of metal in this, the world’s largest cash market for precious metals.

The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) first started teasing the size of the world’s largest physical gold and silver cash (or spot) market in London in 1997-1998. The idea that 10s of millions of oz. of gold and 100s of millions of oz. of silver were traded in London’s cash market each day stunned market observers globally at that time.

What was not fully comprehended was that the clearing data revealed by the LBMA for gold and silver trading was on a ‘net-settled’ basis. According to the LBMA, “clearing statistics only capture the end-of-day transactions between the clearing accounts. All transactions that take place over the course of the day between any two given counterparts are netted at the end of the day and a single transfer of the net amount is made.”

The LBMA was reporting end-of-day net trading volume between parties during that day - the much larger turnover or gross trading volume was not disclosed to the public.

In August 2011, the LBMA published its ‘2011 Loco London Liquidity Survey’ in The Alchemist Issue #63 that revealed much greater daily trading volume in London’s gold market than was anticipated.

With just 64% of LBMA full members involved in gold trading responding to the survey, survey data revealed that daily turnover or gross trading volume was 9.25x greater than the LBMA disclosed through their monthly clearing data. The LBMA had not previously publicly released the daily turnover or gross trading volume for any metal in the London market.

The survey indicated that, when including survey non-respondents, actual daily gold trading turnover was more than 10x greater than the clearing data that the LBMA had been releasing - perhaps much greater.

When the LBMA’s 2011 gold net clearing data showed that up to 26 million (M) oz. of gold were cleared in London each day this indicated that, in fact, more than 260M oz. of gold were traded daily through the London Gold Market. Almost 3x global annual gold production in 2011. The 2011 daily trading volumes for silver are in low earth orbit.

​

Figure 1 - 2011 Illustration of London Gold Clearing Statistics vs Total Turnover; source: LBMA Alchemist #63

The liquidity survey also showed that 90% of daily gold trading volume was in spot/cash contracts for immediate gold ownership and delivery. Ownership of physical gold and silver was shown to be trading hands at a shocking level in London.

Except. The spot/cash contracts in London for immediate ownership of gold and silver bars are created by trading parties on an ‘unallocated’ basis - no specific bars of metal are set aside for each of these promissory note contracts and these paper trading contracts can be created without limit.
As such, the LBMA might be better named the London Promissory Note Market Association (LPNMA).
Since the LBMA was created in 1987 under the oversight of the Bank of England (BoE), gold, silver, platinum and palladium traded in the London cash/spot market to set the global price have been converted into virtual, digital assets that can be created with a button push. Until sufficient metal delivery demand happens.

New London Trading Volume Data Released By The LBMA​

This writer was searching over the past week for any data related to London platinum market trading volume and came across a release from the LBMA titled LBMA Releases Market Review Q4 2021 dated January 12, 2022.

At the end of this document there is a table showing the average daily volume for gold listed as 28.4M oz. and a daily volume high of 40M oz. of gold in Q4 2021.

It is assumed that these volumes represent the daily turnover or gross trading volume of gold in oz. in London.

The LBMA has released London clearing data for Q4 of 2021 showing daily net settled clearing of gold trades of 15.3M oz. giving a ratio of turnover volume to net-settled clearing volume of only only 1.9x - far less than the 10x from the 2011 London liquidity survey.

In April 2022, the LBMA renamed the release the LBMA Precious Metals Market Report of which 12 of these quarterly reports have been released to date.

Figure 2 shows the calculated ratio of average daily gold turnover in London calculated with data from the LBMA’s Net Clearing Data release and volume as stated in the quarterly LBMA Precious Metals Market Reports.

Figure 3 gives extracted gold and silver market volume data released to date by the Precious Metals Market Reports.

​

Figure 2 - Daily London Gold Net Clearing Volume (Monthly Average) & Ratio Of Daily Trading Volume vs Average Daily Net Clearing Volume; source: LBMA

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Figure 3 - Gold and Silver Trading Data; source: LBMA Precious Metals Market Report

The LBMA Trading Volume Data Look Strange​

In Figure 4 below, we can see daily average net clearing data from 2005 to date for the London gold market. What is notable about this data is that since 2011, +/- the average daily clearing data has remained relatively constant during a period where gross daily trading volume/turnover has allegedly declined from 10x to less than 1.5x the daily net clearing volume and then back up to 3x the daily net clearing volume.

A central question is how could daily trading volumes decline by 85% while daily net clearing volume barely moved.

It is hard to see how that is possible.

​

Figure 4 - Daily London Gold Net Clearing Volume (Monthly Average) 2005 - 2025; source: LBMA

In 2019, the LBMA started releasing daily gold trading volumes on proprietary data platforms such as Bloomberg terminals followed by quarterly disclosure of average trading volumes to the public starting in 2022.

Who Has Access To The Reactor Core?​

The trading of party-to-party cash contracts for immediate ownership of gold in London is of promissory notes for metal that are bought and sold in London’s over-the-counter (OTC) market.

Trading of these OTC gold, silver, platinum, and palladium private contracts in London is entirely executed on the Aurum electronic platform that is proprietary and owned by the London Precious Metals Clearing Limited (LPMCL) that is domiciled in the square mile City of London.

The LPMCL is a private company that is owned by four shareholders:

1. HSBC (Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation Ltd.)
2. ICBC (Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited) Standard Bank
3. JPMorgan
4. Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS)

​

Figure 5 - An Illustration Of London Precious Metals Trades Through The Aurum Trading Platform And Its Owner Banks; source: LPMCL

There are banks that have been found guilty for ‘spoofing’ precious metals trades to rig prices in the market.

If the observer stands back far enough and considers the nature of the London market, trading promissory notes for immediate ownership of metal bars with daily trading volumes equating to more than the entire annual production of silver (see: Silver Trading Volume Exceeds 1 Billion oz. (2021) ), the entirety of the market could be considered a spoof.

A Comparative Look At London vs Shanghai Spot Gold Trading Volumes​

The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) trades a cash/spot gold contract named Au99.99 consisting of gold allocated for immediate delivery. Daily trading of this contract is approximately 300,000 oz. per day (May 2025).

If we take LBMA statistics at face value, total OTC gold trading turnover in the London gold market is currently ca. 50M oz. per day. Of the total daily trading volume, the LBMA indicates that 90% of the trading consists of spot contracts (~60%) and swaps/forwards (~30%). However, each gold swap/forward contract includes either buying or selling a gold cash/spot contract as an intermediate step.

The London cash/spot gold market is thus more than 160x larger than the SGE spot gold market.

That’s not trading gold.

Scale of Metal Claims Standing In The London Market​

The nature of the cash/spot market in London makes it challenging to scale trading to estimate metal ownership claims that are standing there. Institutions and funds hold large amounts of London cash/spot contracts that allow demand for immediate delivery of metal and these holdings are not actively traded.

Open claims in a commodity market typically scale at 2x to 3x the daily trading volume. The nature of the London market is different in that what is held or traded there are cash contracts for immediate ownership and delivery of metal including those claims owned by non-trading investors. The scaling factor to determine total claims in London may then be materially greater than the typical 2x to 3x daily trading volume.

We had an indication of the state of the London market earlier in 2025 when sellers of gold in London could not make delivery upon demand putting them in technical default on their contracts when 30M oz. was withdrawn. This required large amounts of central bank gold to be leased into the market to temporarily mask the situation.

Surprising LBMA Data On London Platinum And Palladium Daily Trading Volumes​

The trade association for platinum and palladium trading in London is the London Platinum And Palladium Market (LPPM). However, as with gold and silver, trading of contracts for platinum and palladium occurs on the same Aurum electronic platform that matches buyers and sellers of the London OTC contracts.

The LPPM is somewhat notorious with platinum and palladium market observers in that so little information on London market statistics provided to the public at large. Judge for yourself: https://www.lppm.com/data

The quest for London platinum market data, mentioned at the introduction, did not come up dry but was from an unexpected source: the LBMA.

Starting in early 2023 and sporadically reported every 3 to 9 months since, the LBMA started publishing reports titled “LBMA Daily Trade Reporting Data” that includes a 12-week moving average of the daily dollar value of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium trades in London.

Using the average quarterly prices for platinum and palladium from Johnson Matthey, daily trading volumes of platinum and palladium can be calculated and are shown in Figure 6.

​

Figure 6 - Average Daily Trading Turnover For Platinum And Palladium in London; data source: LBMA, Johnson Matthey

What is notable in Figure 6 above is that that the global platinum market is seeing a 3rd year running in 2025 of ca. 1M oz. supply deficits in an 8M oz. annual global market. Recent lease rates for platinum in London have hit 25% indicating a strong shortage of metal available to market.

And yet this market is trading approaching 3M oz. per day of physical platinum promissory notes in London.

Holders of the London OTC promissory note contracts for platinum have clearly started to ask for delivery of metal and thus the run-up in platinum lease rates as they scramble to secure metal to make delivery.

This small but vital market has no BoE backstop of physical platinum holdings to solve the problem created by the BoE itself when it along with London bullion bankers structured the London unallocated precious metals market in 1987.


jog on
duc