Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Garpal Gumnut]

When i last bought 2 ounces, at a physical gold seller and provider of physical storage..aka safe
I bought i oz, my wife bought 1 oz so both purchases were at the time below 5k AUD which meant they did not have to be reported to the government.
That was what i was told by the dealer

That makes sense. It is the $10k limit.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

re. @ducati916 's interesting post on the whereabouts of one's gold. It reminds me of Winston Churchill's quote on Russia. "Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." So is gold. There is so much sloshing about in legal entities which is accountable but that which is outside is immense. And to stretch the quotes, from Groucho Marx "Outside of a dog a book is man's best friend because inside of a dog is too dark to read.", there are then stores of gold in central banks which is conccealed some of whose countries are quite shady. Then there is a significant amount of gold in criminal and group hands which will never be accounted for.

gg

 

[countrylad]

@qldfrog I thought it was the same as cash $10k in a single transaction, thanks for pointing that out.

 

[qldfrog]

@qldfrog I thought it was the same as cash $10k in a single transaction, thanks for pointing that out.

Well, that is what the seller tells me, he or i might got confused as the 10k makes more sense than a specific 5k AUD per gold sale
So we should still be able to buy 1oz without being reported to the headmaster...

 

[Smurf1976]

Relevant for Australia only.
Since an ounce of gold here is above $5000 AUD, i believe any physical gold purchase..or sale can no longer be anonymous.
Not happy about that but not unhappy with the rise

I thought the threshold was $10k?

Edit - just read that others had already mentioned it. Posted before I saw that.

 

[ducati916]

Does this mean the ETF's are effectively failing to back their own position with physical metals?

Eg that an ETF had (for simplicity) 100 "paper" units in existence owned by investors, backed by 100 units of physical metal in a vault, but is now backing that 100 units owned by investors with something less than 100 physical units in the vault?

Or am I misunderstanding that?

Correct.

Unless stated in the prospectus, many (most) of these US based ETF's do not have to settle in the physical, they can settle in cash. Because of this they can (obviously) hold far below in physical what is required to settle in physical.

The Sprott gold ETF PHYS will settle in physical.

The GLD ETF can settle in cash. Nothing wrong with that if you are simply trading, in fact there are advantages, there are Options linked to this ETF. But if you are holding to redeem (at some point) in physical, it is the wrong ETF to hold as you may (most likely) be settled in cash.

JPM has taken over management of many of these I believe.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Just for those despairing of any movement forward of gold to $USD 4000 I thought I'd put it in context using basic technical analysis 101 of PMGOLD. The stock is bullish with higher highs and higher lows. I'll use PMGOLD in $AUD as an example as I have access to those charts.

$USD 4000 = $AUD 6066 = PMGOLD at 60.66 x 100

PMGOLD is in consolidation mode deciding whether to make a new high or break the upward trend and make a new low. Do not despair. It will more than likely move above 60.66. Remember though that when trading PMGOLD aas well as gold you are trading the forex/exchange rate of AUD/USD.

All good fortune with your investing or trading.



gg

 

[ducati916]

This is as bullish as it gets.

LOL

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

View attachment 204475View attachment 204474View attachment 204473View attachment 204472

View attachment 204479

jog on
duc

That Gold Predictors chart has the good ole "Bumpy Bumpy" pattern which is quite bullish.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

That Gold Predictors chart has the good ole "Bumpy Bumpy" pattern which is quite bullish.

gg

Actually bumpy bumpy is a much better name than pennant. If you can imagine a child coming down a bouncy incline the bumps get less both high and low until he or she has to get off and take a new direction either walking down or walking up.

Definitely bouncy bouncy for me from now on.

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I thought the threshold was $10k?
Edit - just read that others had already mentioned it. Posted before I saw that.

I thought the issue was the treatment of the Transaction .. as per @qldfrog :

When i last bought 2 ounces, at a physical gold seller and provider of physical storage..aka safe
I bought i oz, my wife bought 1 oz so both purchases were at the time below 5k AUD which meant they did not have to be reported to the government.
That was what i was told by the dealer. Dealer is Gold Bullion Australia on the sunny coast

the seller likely saw it as one transaction, above $10k ?

 

[qldfrog]

I thought the issue was the treatment of the Transaction .. as per @qldfrog :

the seller likely saw it as one transaction, above $10k ?

I will ask clarification next time

 

[rcw1]

When i last bought 2 ounces, at a physical gold seller and provider of physical storage..aka safe
I bought i oz, my wife bought 1 oz so both purchases were at the time below 5k AUD which meant they did not have to be reported to the government.
That was what i was told by the dealer
Added
Dealer is Gold Bullion Australia on the sunny coast

now 1/2 oz is go bloke ... and 1/2 oz and ... yep you got it a 1/2 oz ha ha ha ha h aha

 

[rcw1]

great chart. Just beautiful.
Gold is good. Heavy lifting and some. Maintaining that bounce.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[qldfrog]

great chart. Just beautiful.
Gold is good. Heavy lifting and some. Maintaining that bounce.

Kind regards
rcw1


View attachment 204549

Is it a bounce ? Looking more like a fall

 

[rcw1]

Is it a bounce ? Looking more like a fall

6 month bloke really good levels overall.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Is it a bounce ? Looking more like a fall

No @qldfrog . It is a bullish Bouncy Bouncy pattern.



gg

 

[Sean K]

No @qldfrog . It is a bullish Bouncy Bouncy pattern.

View attachment 204599

gg

I thought that was TM @finicky. Has someone stolen his IP?

 

[DaveTrade]

Just for those despairing of any movement forward of gold to $USD 4000 I thought I'd put it in context using basic technical analysis 101 of PMGOLD. The stock is bullish with higher highs and higher lows. I'll use PMGOLD in $AUD as an example as I have access to those charts.

$USD 4000 = $AUD 6066 = PMGOLD at 60.66 x 100

PMGOLD is in consolidation mode deciding whether to make a new high or break the upward trend and make a new low. Do not despair. It will more than likely move above 60.66. Remember though that when trading PMGOLD aas well as gold you are trading the forex/exchange rate of AUD/USD.

All good fortune with your investing or trading.

View attachment 204512

gg

I haven't posted on GLD for a while as nothing much was changing since my last post. The one thing that has happened, which is significant, is that GLD hasn't gone down. This implies that GLD has been doing all it's resting and recharging by moving sideways without a pullback and this is in itself a bullish sign. My first chart shows some possible targets on the upside with my version of waves. The brown MA is the one that I use on a weekly chart and it shows a strong weekly trend has been maintained all through the current sideways movement.


I've previously showed some of my experimental versions of my money flow indicators so I'm showing here what I've finally settled on as a reliable indicator. I don't use this indicator in isolation, it's just one indication to help me see the start and end of trends. I've shown it here as an early warning sign that GLD could be getting ready to breakout, it's making me focus more on all indications of a break to the upside coming.