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Dump it Here

Discussion in 'Beginner's Lounge' started by Skate, Dec 17, 2018.

sentifi.com

Aussie Stock Forum Sentifi Top themes and market attention on:

  1. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Trav. and Skate like this.
  2. kahuna1

    kahuna1

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    Words of wisdom.

    Please think before you reply to a post.

    THINK

    T - is it true?
    H - is it helpful?
    I - is it inspiring?
    N - is it necessary?
    K - is it kind?

    I love this one .... you posted ... I at times find myself in the midst of discussions and opinions where ... some post stuff, opinions, beliefs, and at times based upon faith or hatred which they believe I suspect is true, not helpful, not inspiring to be told someone hates something or some group or issue, not necessary and really not kind. What does one do in the face of being trolled ? By someone who is so sick they hate something illogically or deny science or evidence of impeachable empirical unquestionable nature and then deliberately .... to get attention ... post an opposing view based upon what they know ill annoy, frustrate and deliberately cast doubt upon an issue.

    This is a common tactic of modern times. Smoking and its ill effects, for 30 years the tobacco industry employed such tactics, till ... that changed. People with fears about say a religion or persons skin color or their beliefs, the anonymous internet is a wonderful place for them to emerge and spread their hate. Based upon free speech or some new idea its ok to be intolerant and abusive and show it with gusto.

    How does one respond when its n0ow the normal for say a news media outlet overseas to be like this ? Spread hate, fear about topics based on not fact, but crap ?

    Interesting and scary world where even leaders do it and base a decision upon not a group of experts he has to advise him, or science, or impartial examination of facts and cause and effect, but to operate on an opinion based upon listening and reading crap ?

    That was a dump .... sorry ... but wisdom and best practice and scientific know best practice verses putting your head in the sand or being racist, or greedy separates us from most other species, or at least used to. We revert back to this base state, time and time and time again on a global level.

    Whilst K.I.N.D is a good policy to follow, at times, boundaries and trolls ensure that even the most tolerant and open to others views and opinions are taken to places where, well .... if one failed to respond to a Troll and their lack of humanity as is seen say on the Christchurch thread here, it leaves the definition of who you are as being human, not saying NO ... openly and without anger that someone posting with glee over such an event makes you sick ... if you don't openly say your missing parts, for me, my values .... I sadly cant and will not accept. Not trying to foist my own beliefs upon others, but there is a line where all this free speech and hate speech couched in what appears to be discussion but is NOT ...

    Wow still dumping ... sorry.
     
    JimmyJames80 and Skate like this.
  3. Skate

    Skate

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    0001A. CAM Weekly Update v2.jpg

    Skate's Modified CAM Strategy – 12th April 2019 (weekly update)
    For the first time readers of the ‘Dump it here’ thread I’ll post the explanation of the CAM strategy on my weekly updates. Attaching the explanation of the CAM Strategy with the weekly updates will be helpful to some & a refresher to others.

    Once the explanation is read - scroll down to the updated records below.

    An expanded CAM Strategy explanation
    Trading is all about catching price movements & the most sought-after indicators are those that identify price trends. While the trends are obvious in retrospect, it's another matter altogether to identify the trend in the heat of trading. By combining two popular indicators will not only help traders detect the trend direction but also the trend strength of that price movement.

    As you may have noticed, a number of rather complicated indicators are available to measure trend direction & strength but none of these indicators unfortunately, are perfect.

    The indicators involved in the CAM Strategy are the average directional index (ADX) and the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD). The (ADX) shows the strength of price movement and the (MACD) shows the direction of the price move.

    The (ADX) functions as a trend detector, rising as price strengthens into an identifiable trend and falling when price moves sideways or loses its trending power. Unfortunately, the (ADX) does not reveal the trend direction. The (MACD) on the other hand, indicates price momentum and can also be used to identify price direction as it rises above its trigger line or falls below its zero line.

    Pullback Trading – (Chart Pattern = Gold Bars are CAM-PB)
    Pullback trading is one of the most common and most important ‘with-trend’ trading patterns (trend trades) using the natural pauses (or pullbacks) in a trend to enter in the direction of the trend. For instance, in an uptrend, we might look for an area where prices pause or move downward, and look for a spot to buy the market, expecting that the market will make another upward move. These types of strategies typically identify high probability trades and tend to perform well.

    Countertrend Trading (Chart Pattern = Blue Bars are CAM-CT)
    Many people do not realise that trading countertrends require a very different approach to trading pullbacks because it’s hard to understand whether you are putting on a trade that is in alignment with the existing trend and doing so is sometimes difficult & risky. Countertrend trading requires perfect discipline, both on entry and exit.

    CAM Strategy Simplified
    1. The CAM strategy indicates how two well-known indicators are able to help traders identify major price movements that produce repeatable patterns.
    2. The CAM strategy uses a combination of indicators to identify upward and downward trends as well as pullbacks in existing trends and countertrend rallies.
    3. Using the (ADX) & (MACD) indicators in conjunction with an exponential moving average (EMA) and the commodity channel index (CCI) helps to confirm signals generated.
    4. The combination of the (MACD) and (ADX) register their signals after the start of a price move, with the (ADX) slower to respond than the (MACD).
    5. The indicator combination will not pinpoint tops and bottoms, however traders can expect the (ADX) and (MACD) combination to identify and capture part of a trending move.
    6. More important, the CAM Strategy can help traders stay on the right side of the market and increase the probability of successful trading results.
    7. The Cam Strategy buys Pullbacks & Countertrends & sells on a Downtrend when the close is below the 13-period EMA.

    The CAM strategy is an abbreviation of Coordinated ADX and MACD.

    Please Note (it's critical to the CAM Strategy)
    (a) The CAM system works well in a positive trend & generates a tremendous amount of Buy signals.
    (b) PositionScore is critical to the CAM strategy success.
    (c) In a BEAR market the CAM Strategy performance suffers with large drawdowns.
    (d) The idea of my StaleStop exit is in place for the protection against large drawdowns.
    (e) It’s mandatory to apply the CAM trading strategy to a trending universe of stock.
    (f) Skate's modified CAM strategy uses a unique set of parameters with additional filters because the standard CAM rules are not enough to maximize the odds of profit.

    CAM Signals
    The CAM strategy is a combination of 4 patterns that produce a tremendous amount of signals that can be short lived producing false & confusing signals. The amount of false signals proves the CAM strategy is not the “Holy Grail” but then again no strategy lives up to that title. The false signals are impossible to avoid & this is where the commodity channel index (CCI) comes into its own by filtering out many of those false, annoying signals. When both indicators are combined on the same chart, trend strength and trend direction become clear through the colour coding of the price bars or candlesticks. Also CAM signals can stay in play for a very long period of time once they catch a good trend.

    ADX
    The average directional index (ADX) shows the strength but not the direction of the price that is trending. Trading in the direction of a strong trend reduces risk and increases profit potential. The (ADX) rises as the price strengthens into an identifiable trend & falls when the price weakens or consolidates. The (ADX) can be confusing because it is interpreted differently from other indicators. Most indicators move up when prices rise, and they fall when prices decline, that’s not necessarily the case with the (ADX).

    MACD
    Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum directional indicator that shows the direction of the price movement. The (MACD) can mislead us at times as we often forget the (MACD) is basically a momentum indicator, so it does not always accurately reflect price movement.

    How the CAM Strategy works
    The CAM indicator compares the slope of (MACD) and (ADX) and identifies the following 4 market patterns. The combination of these 4 patterns can help traders stay on the right side of the market and increase the probability of successful trading results. (The bar colours are displayed in the chart below)

    Chart patterns
    1. Uptrend = Green Bars (or candlesticks)
    2. Pullback = Gold Bars (or candlesticks)
    3. Downtrend = Red Bars (or candlesticks)
    4. Counter trend = Blue Bars (or candlesticks)

    A Bar Chart is attached at the bottom of this post
    At the bottom of this week’s update there is a chart for the first ‘Buy’ signal generated regardless whether the position is taken. I have included the Chart to demonstrate the colour coding of the Chart patterns.

    Trade Setup (Enter LONG)
    Buy tomorrow at the open if today is a GOLD-coloured bar [which represents the CAM-PB, meaning that both the 10-period (ADX) and (MACD) are declining] but the 14-period (CCI) is above zero, OR if today is a BLUE-coloured bar [which represents the CAM-CT, meaning the 10-period (ADX) is declining but (MACD) is rising] and today’s close crosses above the 13-period EMA.

    Trade Setup (Exit LONG)
    Sell tomorrow at the open if today is a RED-coloured bar [which corresponds to the CAM-DN, that is, the 10-period (ADX) is rising but the (MACD) declines] and today’s close is below the 13-period EMA.

    Skate's CAM Strategy Settings
    Weekly Strategy
    $300,000 Capital
    20 Position Portfolio
    $15,000 Fixed Positions
    Starting Date 1st January 2019

    CAM Strategy Weekly Update format
    1. This week’s Buy & Sell positions to be placed in the pre-auction before Monday's open if action is required.
    2. This week's generated Buy & Sell signals for the CAM Strategy (at the end of trade on Friday)
    3. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly (at the end of trade on Friday)
    4. The CAM Strategy ‘Open’ positions will be posted weekly (at the end of trade on Friday)
    5. The CAM Strategy ‘Closed’ positions will be posted weekly (at the end of trade on Friday)
    6. The CAM Strategy Dashboard will be posted weekly (at the end of trade on Friday)
    7. This week’s CAM Strategy first generated ‘Buy’ signal shown on the attached Chart to demonstrate the bar colour coding.

    Start of this weeks updated records
    0001B. START OF THIS WEEKS UPDATED RECORDS.jpg

    1. Listed below is this week’s buy & sell positions to be placed in the pre-auction before Monday open if action is required.
    1. NO Buys or Sells for this week.jpg

    2. This week's generated Buy & Sell signals for the CAM Strategy
    2. CAM Buy & Sell Signals Capture.JPG

    3. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly
    3. CAM Portfolio Line Chart for ASF forum Capture.JPG

    4. CAM Strategy ‘Open’ position
    4. CAM Open Positions Capture.JPG

    5. CAM Strategy ‘Closed’ positions
    5. CAM Sold Trade Capture.JPG

    6. CAM Strategy Dashboard
    6. CAM Portfolio Dashboard Capture.JPG


    7. The CAM Strategy first weekly ‘Buy’ Chart to demonstrate the bar colour coding.
    7. CAM - First weekly Buy Capture.JPG

    Skate.
     
  4. Trendnomics

    Trendnomics

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    Hey Skate.

    Have you posted any back-test results, which cover the GFC period? From the back-tests I have done on similar strategies, the GFC period was particularly detrimental (lots of whipsawing into a down-trending market). The current trend-following system I'm trading (for the past 6 years) was selected on one of the basis's being a benign GFC outcome.

    Good work on reigniting the systematic trend-following interest on this forum. Ironically, the last period in which there was such a great interest was just prior to the GFC - I visit the archived graveyard once a while.

    A random sample back-test run for my system:

    upload_2019-4-12_23-6-4.png
     
  5. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Good point,
    Being a relatively negative pessimistic guy, i built my own system similar to Skate, but with a big emphasis on reducing DD. A more cautious entry so not even half invested after 2 months and edgy on exit
    I do not have Skate stellar results, but am quite happy with the current outcome so far.
    i also do not like the odds of THE big crash ahead
     
    JimmyJames80 and Skate like this.
  6. Skate

    Skate

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    Hi Trendnomics

    Thank you for your question & taking the time to read some of my posts.

    Over the time you have made some good posts & you have also contributed to this thread with a great post found here:

    https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1011285/

    Your statement of fact in that post resonated with me
    “It is mind boggling how much money you can extract from the market as a retail trader, with the right amount of discipline, fortitude and conviction”

    Your Question
    “Have you posted any back-test results, which cover the GFC period?”

    I have posted backtest results from time to time about my HYBRID & my modified CAM strategy but I no longer subscribe to historical data from that time period to give you those backtest results.

    What I can say about the GFC period
    The GFC (the pattern) to a robust trend following strategy would be a non-event. When I had historical data it was proven to be a non-event because any strategy 'worth its salt' have filters & indicators to protect against these recurring trading patterns. When I build my systems they are robustly tested to withstand the 2011 market fluctuations that @peter2 eluded to on his thread. 2011 hit hard & trading reflected this.

    Your first statement
    “From the back-tests I have done on similar strategies, the GFC period was particularly detrimental (lots of whipsawing into a down-trending market). The current trend-following system I'm trading (for the past 6 years) was selected on one of the basis's being a benign GFC outcome.”

    Point in case – my previous answer & your statement are one & the same.

    Your second statement
    “Good work on reigniting the systematic trend-following interest on this forum. Ironically, the last period in which there was such a great interest was just prior to the GFC - I visit the archived graveyard once a while.”

    Thank you for your kind words.

    The ‘Dump it here’ thread was started in the hope of helping new members those just starting out on their trading journey. I lost interest very quickly in the thread as there was a lack of interaction, I was just repeating information I already knew & it felt as if I was talking to myself. I twisted & turned the thread & at times I was confrontational but that was even short lived.

    My Hybrid strategy raise a low level of interest & the CAM strategy much the same. As I was already paper trading the CAM strategy I thought why not share the journey & post my results to keep this thread active. I have made a full & frank disclosure on both strategies.

    Revisiting the CAM weekly results I realise it's an information overload so from next week I'll condense the report in the hope of keeping it short & snappy. (I'll link how the CAM strategy works saving other rereading it)

    Confidence in your trading plan
    After reading a few threads it's easy to understand traders have their own methodology & approach when it comes to trading the markets confirming there is no right or wrong way.

    Skate.
     
  7. Skate

    Skate

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    School teacher Capture.jpg

    Skate
     
  8. Skate

    Skate

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    Repository.jpg
    A reference guide for a basic understanding how the CAM strategy works.

    0001A. CAM Strategy.jpg

    To simplify the weekly reporting of the CAM Strategy I wanted to explain the working of the strategy in one post so I don't keep listing it in the weekly report. For the first time readers of the ‘Dump it here’ thread or members who follow my CAM Strategy weekly updates I want to explain the workings of the CAM Strategy as it may help you better understand why this simple strategy is so effective in finding price movements & trends.

    Let me explain the CAM Strategy
    The CAM strategy is problematic as far as paper trading goes as it has the ability to find long term trends making for less than exciting reporting of the system on a weekly basis & its ongoing progress. The issue with long term trending systems is that they are hard to qualify as the returns could be down to sheer luck or maybe just the start date - all this just adds complexities of its evaluation.

    Why the CAM Strategy is different

    The CAM strategy is based on a few indicators, something so simple you would question if trading the combination of these indicators would work let alone be profitable. The original CAM strategy or idea has a few lines of code & surprisingly it just works. There was a generated interest in the CAM strategy so I added a few bells & whistles to show others that this simple strategy had potential & 'wham-bam-thank-you-mam' this strategy grew wings & my interest was pricked - I was impressed.

    My modified Strategy
    My modified CAM strategy backtests extremely well but to me that means JACK. The only real test is trading it on 'out-of-sample' data (data not seen before) & that's where we are at the moment, paper trading it. I'm displaying a full disclosure of it progresses in real time before positions are executed. This strategy performs well in a BULL market so the performance is tracking along quite nicely but as I've said before it could all be down to luck or timing, who knows.

    Trading is simple

    Trading is all about catching price movements & the most sought-after indicators are those that identify price trends. While the trends are obvious in retrospect, it's another matter altogether to identify the trend in the heat of trading. By combining two popular indicators will not only help traders detect the trend direction but also the trend strength of that price movement.

    Nothing is perfect

    As you may have noticed, a number of rather complicated indicators are available to measure trend direction & strength but none of these indicators unfortunately, are perfect. The indicators involved in the CAM Strategy are the average directional index (ADX) and the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD). The (ADX) shows the strength of price movement and the (MACD) shows the direction of the price move - nothing complicated but the combination is effective.

    ADX & MACD
    The (ADX) functions as a trend detector, rising as price strengthens into an identifiable trend and falling when price moves sideways or loses its trending power. Unfortunately, the (ADX) does not reveal the trend direction. The (MACD) on the other hand, indicates price momentum and can also be used to identify price direction as it rises above its trigger line or falls below its zero line.

    The CAM Strategy buys Pullbacks
    – (Chart Pattern = Gold Bars are CAM-PB)
    Pullback trading is one of the most common and most important ‘with-trend’ trading patterns (trend trading) using the natural pauses (or pullbacks) in a trend to enter in the direction of the trend. For instance, in an uptrend, we might look for an area where prices pause or move downward, and look for a spot to buy the market, expecting that the market will make another upward move. These types of strategies typically identify high probability trades and tend to perform well.

    The CAM Strategy also buys Countertrends
    – (Chart Pattern = Blue Bars are CAM-CT)
    Many people do not realise that trading countertrends require a very different approach to trading pullbacks because it’s hard to understand whether you are putting on a trade that is in alignment with the existing trend and doing so is sometimes difficult & risky. Countertrend trading requires perfect discipline, both on entry and exit.

    CAM Strategy Simplified

    1. The CAM strategy indicates how two well-known indicators are able to help traders identify major price movements that produce repeatable patterns.
    2. The CAM strategy uses a combination of indicators to identify upward and downward trends as well as pullbacks in existing trends and countertrend rallies.
    3. Using the (ADX) & (MACD) indicators in conjunction with an exponential moving average (EMA) and the commodity channel index (CCI) helps to confirm signals generated.
    4. The combination of the (MACD) and (ADX) register their signals after the start of a price move, with the (ADX) slower to respond than the (MACD).
    5. The indicator combination will not pinpoint tops and bottoms, however traders can expect the (ADX) and (MACD) combination to identify and capture part of a trending move.
    6. More important, the CAM Strategy can help traders stay on the right side of the market and increase the probability of successful trading results.
    7. The Cam Strategy buys Pullbacks & Countertrends & sells on a Downtrend when the close is below the 13-period EMA.

    The CAM strategy is an abbreviation of Coordinated ADX and MACD.

    Please Note (it's critical to the CAM Strategy)
    (a) The CAM system works well in a positive trend & generates a tremendous amount of Buy signals.
    (b) PositionScore is critical to the CAM strategy success.
    (c) In a BEAR market the CAM Strategy performance suffers with large drawdowns.
    (d) The idea of my StaleStop exit is in place for the protection against large drawdowns.
    (e) It’s mandatory to apply the CAM trading strategy to a trending universe of stock.
    (f) Skate's modified CAM strategy uses a unique set of parameters with additional filters because the standard CAM rules are not enough to maximize the odds of profit.

    CAM Signals
    The CAM strategy is a combination of 4 patterns that produce a tremendous amount of signals that can be short lived producing false & confusing signals. The amount of false signals proves the CAM strategy is not the “Holy Grail” but then again no strategy lives up to that title. The false signals are impossible to avoid & this is where the commodity channel index (CCI) comes into its own by filtering out many of those false, annoying signals. When both indicators are combined on the same chart, trend strength and trend direction become clear through the colour coding of the price bars or candlesticks. Also CAM signals can stay in play for a very long period of time once they catch a good trend.

    ADX

    The average directional index (ADX) shows the strength but not the direction of the price that is trending. Trading in the direction of a strong trend reduces risk and increases profit potential. The (ADX) rises as the price strengthens into an identifiable trend & falls when the price weakens or consolidates. The (ADX) can be confusing because it is interpreted differently from other indicators. Most indicators move up when prices rise, and they fall when prices decline, that’s not necessarily the case with the (ADX).

    MACD

    Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum directional indicator that shows the direction of the price movement. The (MACD) can mislead us at times as we often forget the (MACD) is basically a momentum indicator, so it does not always accurately reflect price movement.

    This is how the CAM Strategy works

    The CAM indicator compares the slope of (MACD) and (ADX) and identifies the following 4 market patterns. The combination of these 4 patterns can help traders stay on the right side of the market and increase the probability of successful trading results.

    Chart patterns

    1. Uptrend = Green Bars (or candlesticks)
    2. Pullback = Gold Bars (or candlesticks)
    3. Downtrend = Red Bars (or candlesticks)
    4. Counter trend = Blue Bars (or candlesticks)

    A Bar Chart is attached at the bottom of the weekly updated posts

    At the bottom of each week’s update there is a chart for the first ‘Buy’ signal generated regardless whether the position is taken. I have included the Chart in the weekly updates to demonstrate the colour coding of the Chart patterns.

    Trade Setup
    (Enter LONG)
    Buy tomorrow at the open if today is a GOLD-coloured bar [which represents the CAM-PB, meaning that both the 10-period (ADX) and (MACD) are declining] but the 14-period (CCI) is above zero, OR if today is a BLUE-coloured bar [which represents the CAM-CT, meaning the 10-period (ADX) is declining but (MACD) is rising] and today’s close crosses above the 13-period EMA.

    Trade Setup (Exit LONG)
    Sell tomorrow at the open if today is a RED-coloured bar [which corresponds to the CAM-DN, that is, the 10-period (ADX) is rising but the (MACD) declines] and today’s close is below the 13-period EMA.

    Skate's CAM Strategy Settings
    Weekly Strategy
    $300,000 Capital
    20 Position Portfolio
    $15,000 Fixed Positions

    Paper trading of the CAM Strategy starting date is the 1st January 2019

    CAM Strategy Weekly Update format
    1. This week’s Buy & Sell positions to be placed in the pre-auction before Monday's open if action is required.
    2. This week's generated Buy & Sell signals for the CAM Strategy (at the end of trade on Friday)
    3. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly (at the end of trade on Friday)
    4. The CAM Strategy ‘Open’ positions will be posted weekly (at the end of trade on Friday)
    5. The CAM Strategy ‘Closed’ positions will be posted weekly (at the end of trade on Friday)
    6. The CAM Strategy Dashboard will be posted weekly (at the end of trade on Friday)
    7. This week’s CAM Strategy first generated ‘Buy’ signal shown on the attached Chart to demonstrate the bar colour coding.

    How to get wealthy over time Capture.jpg

    Skate.
     
  9. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    Skate, i think the image link might be wrong?
     
  10. Skate

    Skate

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    I'm unsure of the image link you are referring to..

    Maybe a Google Chrome issue others have been reporting

    Skate.
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2019
    tyson2710, JimmyJames80 and cynic like this.
  11. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    T
    the cam strategy post ends with an image about the power of compounding? Was it your purpose?
     
  12. Skate

    Skate

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    Okay, I assumed there was an issue with the graphic not displaying..

    The graphic is a representation of a wealth creation plan
    Having a trading plan is about creating an extraordinary quality of life, living life on your terms and the graphic somewhat displays what is required to achieve this aspiration. Happiness is really about creating an extraordinary quality of life. Money and financial independence can have a significant effect on everything from our psychology, to our health, to our relationships.

    A trading plan
    I've posted so much in a short period of time in the 'Dump it here' thread turning it into a short book for others to read when they have nothing else to do or as a travelling companion. As they say a 'picture paints a thousand words' & the picture at the end of my CAM repository post was a representation how to accumulate the funds to trade. Trading in its simplest form is catching a price movement - some try to complicate trading whereas I have a different view.

    General advice
    Forget about the pending doom & gloom, it's always lurking in the background & someday it will happen but till than concentrate on executing your plan till the $hit hits the fan.

    Thank you @qldfrog for allowing me to clarify these minor points.

    Skate.
     
  13. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    No problem, thanks for the confirmation.have all a great week end
     
  14. lindsayf

    lindsayf

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    Skate
    Interesting disclosures about how you interact with others.
    Still not really clear what is in it for you to behave like this....orn

    Hi
    I still dont understand firstly why you would seek to behave like this or secondly why you are disclosing it. Unless it is in some part of the financial world where the dumbest manipulator loses...which I think you do allude to. But outside of that?
     
  15. Skate

    Skate

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    Hi lindsayf

    First off, let me say thank you for reading some of my posts..

    The post you refer to was a response to @Gringotts Bank with a reference that there is a lack of interest in the 'Dump it here' thread & I made the remark that "as no one reads this thread let me indulge.." to react further with him.

    Very little interest
    The 'Dump it here' thread lacked traction from the 'get go' with little interest in the material I was presenting. With the lack of interest I was merely manipulating the thread to invoke a response with the idea of bring the thread back on topic. I regarded it as a mere interlude before nudging the thread back to the main topic of emotions & how they react with trading. Human behaviour & conditioning is a subject I've written about & taught.

    Your first quote
    "Interesting disclosures about how you interact with others.
    Still not really clear what is in it for you to behave like this....orn"

    Whats in it for me
    Surprisingly I made reference to your quote a few posts back (see below) I behave like this so I can play tennis with someone. Let me explain the art of playing 'Tennis' with someone. Tennis is a game where two people hit the ball back to forth & conditioning is the same. The longer you can keep someone playing tennis it allows the compounding of conditioning to have it biggest affect.
    Why interact this way ?
    There are a few reasons (there is always a trigger) & it could be but not limited to:
    1. To give someone an example
    2. To educate
    3. To prove a point
    4. To control someones emotions
    5. To control a conversation or a group (having people hang on your every words is a strong aphrodisiac)
    6. To teach someone about their behaviour (a behaviour they are not aware of - if people cannot see the problem, there is no solution)
    7. To condition someone for a mutual or beneficial outcome
    8. To achieve a desired result
    9. For personal pleasure
    10. To get a reaction so I can play Tennis with them

    It's extremely difficult to explain a very complicated subject & how to apply this procedure in just a few lines (conditioning is a learnt art) body language & facial expression go 'hand in glove'

    Your second statement that ends in a question
    "I still dont understand firstly why you would seek to behave like this or secondly why you are disclosing it. Unless it is in some part of the financial world where the dumbest manipulator loses...which I think you do allude to. But outside of that?"

    Let me drill down on your second statement.
    The intention of the 'Dump it here' thread was for the education of traders beginning out on a perilous journey. A journey without knowledge has severe financial & emotional consequences. I've made many posts about the dangers associated with trading & repeated it many time to condition someones mindset (without their knowledge of what I was doing - similar to how we cure hiccups) Conditioning was the vehicle to modify their behaviour & thinking, giving them a fighting change of success. Humans have lost the art of procedural thinking, but that another subject entirely.

    Next
    I want to post about things that are interesting to you & others because I didn't want to keep spewing out information I've learnt over a lifetime that is of no interest or value to you. When members hit the 'Like' button it's an indication of the direction my posts should take. I've had a colourful life & I have a passion to pass on knowledge that has been helpful to me. If I personally think it will make a difference to someone I'll disclose & discuss that topics in a frank & open manner.

    Humans are deeply flawed creatures
    All humans are manipulators (some just don't realise it) I've copped flack explaining the art of 'conditioning' only to be told how bad I am & in the next breath they explain how they have manipulated others to get a desired or favourable outcome for themselves (go figure) People are first to criticise without being smart enough to ask further questions for clarification. If you don't listen you forgo the ability to learn.

    I've raised so many different topics in the 'Dump it here' thread that lasted only a few posts because there was a lack of interest. People have lost the desire to learn, we lack passion about so many things & behavioural science perfectly illustrates this.

    Now let me be critical of you
    You have not read the entire 'Dump it here' thread but cherry picked one or two posts with a lack of understanding what transpired before, after, or a desire to fill in the missing blanks for you to better understand where I'm coming from. The heading & the first paragraph was written to evoked an emotion. Words are powerful, setting up someones perception is powerful, conditioning is powerful, how you respond makes a difference. You have reacted to a few of my words, which is basic human nature. I'm hoping my response to you will be the catalysis for you to read a few more of my posts or even a desire to grab my free eBook.

    Disclaimer
    Reading my eBook once is of little benefit, reading it a few more times will allow you to unpack the meaning of what you have read, conditioning you to think on a deeper level & if any of my posts or words modify your behaviour, I'm a winner..

    Thank you lindsayf for giving me a platform to further express my views.

    Skate.
     
  16. Gringotts Bank

    Gringotts Bank

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    A banker I know whose job is to look after high net-worth clients is saying his phone isn't ringing, and it's been that way for 6 months or so. Many of his clients are sitting in cash or other low risk asset classes. He's been doing this job for a long time.
     
  17. Skate

    Skate

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    0001A. CAM Strategy.jpg
    eposi.jpg
    https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1022296/

    Skate's modified CAM Strategy Settings
    Weekly Strategy
    $300,000 Capital
    20 Position Portfolio
    $15,000 Fixed Positions

    1. Listed below is this week’s buy & sell positions to be placed in the pre-auction before Monday open if action is required.
    Happy Easter No Buys or Sells images.jpg

    2. This week's generated Buy & Sell signals for the CAM Strategy
    2. CAM Buy & Sell Signals Capture.JPG

    3. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly
    3. CAM Portfolio Line Chart for ASF forum Capture.JPG

    4. CAM Strategy ‘Open’ position
    4. CAM Open Positions Capture.JPG

    5. CAM Strategy ‘Closed’ positions
    5. CAM Sold Trade Capture.JPG

    6. CAM Strategy Dashboard
    6. CAM Portfolio Dashboard Capture.JPG


    7. The CAM Strategy first weekly ‘Buy’ Chart to demonstrate the bar colour coding.
    7. CAM - First weekly Buy Capture.JPG

    Skate.
     
  18. Newt

    Newt

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    Feeling very spoiled and thankful reading the numerous weekly systematic trading reports on ASF currently.

    Skate, a question please - I suspect you would have modelled the effect of trading your Hybrid and CAM strategies together. I believe you've mentioned before the correlation was relatively low, at least in terms of tickers with Buy signals, but it would be interesting to know if the combined equity curve is flatter, magnifies the period that trend following is successful and times that drawdowns occur. I'm sure you have market filters for both strategies to limit the DD, but interested if your (expected/modelled) equity curve is now flatter?
     
  19. Skate

    Skate

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    Hi Newt

    Thanks for your question & before I set about answering it - let me please make a few comments.

    1. First off the CAM Strategy is not in the same league as the HYBRID strategy. The CAM strategy is okay (not brilliant) & time will tell if the strategy will be good enough for me to trade.
    2. The CAM Strategy is a ‘with-trend’ strategy taking advantage of 'pullback & countertrends' entry method that is commonly used by many traders.
    3. The CAM strategy is a simple idea to catch a price movement but I found the original CAM rules are insufficient to maximize the odds of consistent profit.
    4. My modified CAM strategy is not being traded as originally designed but I do incorporate the basic idea in my strategy.

    The CAM strategy uses the natural pauses the 'pullbacks' in an uptrend to enter the trade in the direction of the trend - it also enters on countertrends which is a very different approach to trading pullbacks, the combination of these two indicators is very clever. I've coded each entry separately but in testing it loses its edge immensely.

    The HYBRID strategy is a pure trend trading breakout strategy. Combining the three separate but similar strategies allow me the opportunity to front run most trend traders as each strategy has the ability to generate signals quicker than one of the other two. The combination of my trailing & stale exits allows me to sell before most trend traders. When the momentum stop, I'm off the sucker quick smart.

    Back to your question
    "I suspect you would have modeled the effect of trading your Hybrid and CAM strategies together"

    Yes, I sure have. The results were disappointing but not unexpected as the entry, exits & positionscore are at odds with each other let alone the parameters & filters differ greatly. Another major issue is the amount of positions the CAM strategy spews out, front running & over powering the HYBRID strategy.

    I've been after another strategy to trade
    I've been coding strategy after strategy for many years looking for another trading system that backtest with long term consistency similar to my HYBRID Strategy but to date its been elusive. The CAM strategy has some inherent irritating annoyingly grabbing everything that moves resulting in false signals that are impossible to avoid but when it catches a good trend it stay in the trade for extended periods due to 13 period EMA.

    Also the CAM strategy loves a BULL market & has difficulty separating the wheat from the chaff. I'm placing a lot of trust that the indicators & filters that I have added will go somewhat to address this & in backtesting it confirms it does. Trading the CAM strategy with 'out of sample' data (OOS) is the only test I'll take notice of.

    Since January the CAM strategy has been motoring along quite nicely & having only two down weeks is disappointing for backtesting but good for live trading. On Monday the portfolio results was shaping up for another exceptional week only to be kicked in the guts by traders taking a bit off the table - traders were being spooked or greedy. Traders taking profits & locking them makes even the most robust strategy look ordinary at times.

    Let me give you an example of the CAM Strategy from Monday to end of trade today displaying what a few down days can do to your trading results.

    Monday portfolio Capture.JPG

    . Thursday portfolio Capture.JPG .

    Thanks for your question giving me an opportunity to explain the CAM strategy in a little more detail.

    Skate.
     
  20. Newt

    Newt

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    Thanks very much Skate for such a comprehensive response.

    I feel your pain about the kick down this week as people took profits before Easter, but when your going for medium term trends it comes with the territory. First big down week for me since coming back into the market mid January.

    Invaluable for those watching to see you're human and feel these downward jolts, but still have the conviction and confidence to keep doing what your systems call for.
     
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