• Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Hello and welcome to Aussie Stock Forums!

To gain full access you must register. Registration is free and takes only a few seconds to complete.

Already a member? Log in here.

Dump it Here

Discussion in 'Beginner's Lounge' started by Skate, Dec 17, 2018.

  1. Skate

    Skate

    Posts:
    1,149
    Likes Received:
    1,314
    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2013
    Words of wisdom.

    Please think before you reply to a post.

    THINK

    T - is it true?
    H - is it helpful?
    I - is it inspiring?
    N - is it necessary?
    K - is it kind?

    Skate.
     
    explod and Joe Blow like this.
  2. Skate

    Skate

    Posts:
    1,149
    Likes Received:
    1,314
    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2013
    Positive thinking

    FAIL
    If you fail, never give up because FAIL means:
    "First Attempt In Learning"

    END
    The End is not the end. In fact END means:
    "Effort Never Dies"

    NO
    If you get NO for an answer, remember NO means:
    "Next Opportunity"

    Skate.
     
    explod likes this.
  3. Skate

    Skate

    Posts:
    1,149
    Likes Received:
    1,314
    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2013
    Words by C.S. Lewis
    "You can't go back & change the beginning but you can start where you are & change the ending"

    Words by Skate
    "If you don't like the hole you have dug for yourself stop digging"

    Skate.
     
  4. Skate

    Skate

    Posts:
    1,149
    Likes Received:
    1,314
    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2013
    Skate's Modified CAM Strategy - weekly update
    I'm planning to trade the CAM strategy once the paper testing correlates with the current Backtest, Walk-Forward & Monte Carlo testing.

    Actual Sample
    This sample is the end of trade yesterday (Monday 4th March 2019)

    FYI
    Skate's modified CAM Strategy - has 2 Buy conditions & 2 Sell conditions.

    CAM Strategy Settings
    Weekly Strategy
    $300,000 Capital
    20 Position Portfolio
    $15,000 Fixed Positions
    Starting Date 1st January 2019


    CAM Strategy Weekly Update format
    1. Next week’s buy & sell signals will be posted (end of trade Friday) for purchase in the pre-auction Monday morning.
    2. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly (end of trade Friday)
    3. CAM Strategy open positions will be posted weekly (end of trade Friday)
    4. CAM Strategy Dashboard will be posted weekly (end of trade Friday)


    1. Next week’s buy & sell signals (as of end of trade Monday 4th March 2019 - these signals change daily with data updates)
    1. Buy & Sell Signals Capture.JPG


    2. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly (as of end of trade Monday 4th March 2019)
    2. CAM Portfolio Line Chart for ASF forum Capture.JPG



    3. CAM Strategy open positions (as of end of trade Monday 4th March 2019)
    3. CAM Open Positions Capture.JPG



    4. CAM Strategy Dashboard (as of end of trade Monday 4th March 2019)
    4. CAM Portfolio Dashboard Capture.JPG

    Skate.
     
    Newt, peter2 and debtfree like this.
  5. Gringotts Bank

    Gringotts Bank

    Posts:
    5,898
    Likes Received:
    242
    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2007
    Straight line equity curve, 15% in 2 months. Well done.
     
    Skate likes this.
  6. Smurf1976

    Smurf1976

    Posts:
    8,381
    Likes Received:
    1,319
    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2005
    Not sure if this has been mentioned but never lose sight of the real objective, which may be very different to the immediate task at hand.

    Suppose that you have just sold your holding in whatever stock.

    You now have capital available to deploy elsewhere and the danger lies in unintentionally adopting a mindset that your task is to deploy that capital.

    Rather, your task is to make a profit. Only deploy the capital if you can do so in a manner that is expected to be profitable.

    It sounds obvious but it's very possible to fall into the situation of administering your portfolio rather than managing it. Seeing the task as to buy shares in something so as to get rid of the cash rather than focusing on investing to profit. :2twocents
     
    qldfrog and Skate like this.
  7. Skate

    Skate

    Posts:
    1,149
    Likes Received:
    1,314
    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2013
    Skate's Modified CAM Strategy - weekly update
    I'm planning to trade the CAM strategy once the paper testing correlates with the current Backtest, Walk-Forward & Monte Carlo testing.

    CAM Strategy Settings
    Weekly Strategy
    $300,000 Capital
    20 Position Portfolio
    $15,000 Fixed Positions
    Starting Date 1st January 2019

    CAM Strategy Weekly Update format
    1. This week’s buy & sell positions to be placed in the pre-auction before Monday's open if action is required.
    2. This week's generated Buy & Sell signals for the CAM Strategy (at the end of trade on Friday)
    3. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly (at the end of trade on Friday)
    4. The CAM Strategy open positions will be posted weekly (at the end of trade on Friday)
    5. The CAM Strategy Dashboard will be posted weekly (at the end of trade on Friday)


    1. This week’s buy & sell positions to be placed in the pre-auction before Monday open. (There NO Buys or Sells this week)
    1. NO Buys or Sells this week.jpg


    2. This week's generated Buy & Sell signals for the CAM Strategy (There are No Buys or Sells to be placed in the pre-Auction this week)
    2. Buy & Sell Signals Capture.JPG


    3. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly
    3. CAM Portfolio Line Chart for ASF forum Capture.JPG


    4. CAM Strategy open positions
    4. CAM Open Positions Capture.JPG


    5. CAM Strategy Dashboard
    5. CAM Portfolio Dashboard Capture.JPG


    Skate.
     
  8. jbocker

    jbocker

    Posts:
    695
    Likes Received:
    147
    Joined:
    May 24, 2009
    Skate Joe et. al. (way too many to name).
    Just a word of thanks for the forum, and in particular this one. I am learning a great lesson and I am far more comfortable coming to a decision on investing in shares. I have been selling down my holdings as I have realised how little I know and in reality most of what I do is punting. Funnily enough I probably did well in my earlier strategy soon after I first started, but even that on reflection was more luck than skill.
    The hardest thing is to accept is the 'lack of' knowledge and not to hang on and lose more money rather than lose face. If I come back to the fold I will re-read Dump it Here before I invest (not punt) again.
    I will stay in touch. I like this place.
     
    peter2, myrtie100, Joe Blow and 3 others like this.
  9. Gringotts Bank

    Gringotts Bank

    Posts:
    5,898
    Likes Received:
    242
    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2007
    IMO, it's all about your equity curve. If you can maintain a good equity curve and spread your risk a bit, then there's absolutely no need to worry about using a punting approach. It's completely acceptable. Do whatever makes you money whilst minimizing risk. My best equity curve is with sports betting, and it's all done on gut feel.

    From a Fin Review article on David Walsh. If you don't know what he did and how he did it, it's worth a search. Then consider this:

    So can lay punters win regularly? “Absolutely yes," Walsh confidently exclaims. “There are punters that watch horse races that have insights that nobody else has.

    “It is bloody amazing to me, but is a fact."

    He highlights a Betfair disclosure several years ago that among its 800,000 customers there were 30,000 consistent winners. “I was surprised by how large that number was – I would have probably been surprised if it was just 5000.
     
    jbocker likes this.
  10. lindsayf

    lindsayf

    Posts:
    298
    Likes Received:
    21
    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2008
    That is 3%........
    And define ‘consistent’.
    Is Walsh on the payroll of one of the sportsbetting companies?
    And of course Betfair would inflate that number as it is in thier interests to massage that perception.
    Great way to go broke in reality.
    Are you really doing better on the sports bets than your trading/investing?
    The stats for the rate of rise in problem gambling with sportsbetting are pretty impressive.
    Best way to make money on SB is to buy shares in a SB company.
     
  11. Gringotts Bank

    Gringotts Bank

    Posts:
    5,898
    Likes Received:
    242
    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2007
    4%.

    Probably similar for retail trading.
     
  12. Skate

    Skate

    Posts:
    1,149
    Likes Received:
    1,314
    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2013
    CAM Weekly Update.jpg

    Skate's Modified CAM Strategy - 15th March 2019 (weekly update)

    CAM Strategy
    The CAM strategy uses indicators to identify upward and downward trends as well as pullbacks in existing trends and countertrend rallies using an exponential moving average (EMA) and the commodity channel index (CCI) to help confirm signals generated. The CAM strategy is an abbreviation of Coordinated ADX and MACD.

    The CAM indicator compares the slope of MACD and ADX and identifies the following 4 market patterns.
    1. Uptrend
    2. Pullback
    3. Downtrend
    4. Counter trend

    Skate's CAM Strategy Settings
    Weekly Strategy
    $300,000 Capital
    20 Position Portfolio
    $15,000 Fixed Positions
    Starting Date 1st January 2019

    CAM Strategy Weekly Update format
    1. This week’s Buy & Sell positions to be placed in the pre-auction before Monday's open if action is required.
    2. This week's generated Buy & Sell signals for the CAM Strategy (at the end of trade on Friday)
    3. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly (at the end of trade on Friday)
    4. The CAM Strategy ‘Open’ positions will be posted weekly (at the end of trade on Friday)
    5. The CAM Strategy ‘Closed’ positions will be posted weekly (at the end of trade on Friday)
    6. The CAM Strategy Dashboard will be posted weekly (at the end of trade on Friday)

    1. This week’s buy & sell positions to be placed in the pre-auction before Monday open.
    1. CAM Buys and Sells this week.jpg

    2. This week's generated Buy & Sell signals for the CAM Strategy
    2. CAM Buy & Sell Signals Capture.JPG

    3. Portfolio performance line chart updated weekly
    3. CAM Portfolio Line Chart for ASF forum Capture.JPG

    4. CAM Strategy ‘Open’ position
    4. CAM Open Positions Capture.JPG

    5. CAM Strategy ‘Closed’ positions
    5. CAM Sold Trade Capture.JPG

    6. CAM Strategy Dashboard
    6. CAM Portfolio Dashboard Capture.JPG

    Skate.
     
    qldfrog, Newt, peter2 and 2 others like this.
  13. Newt

    Newt

    Posts:
    291
    Likes Received:
    72
    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2012
    Skate, can I enquire which entries you are trading for your CAM strategy?

    You listed the following patterns/signals:
    1. Uptrend
    2. Pullback
    3. Downtrend
    4. Counter trend

    Presumably you take LONG signals on 1,2 and 4?
     
  14. Skate

    Skate

    Posts:
    1,149
    Likes Received:
    1,314
    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2013
    ski sell Capture.JPG
    Newt, thank you for reading the 'Dump it here' post on the CAM Strategy with Weekly Updates. The information you are seeking has already been posted. As you have the strategy the operational instructions are written at the bottom of the afl code. I have added a few posts references that better explain how I operate the CAM Strategy.

    • green candlesticks = uptrend
    • gold candlesticks = pullback
    • red candlesticks = downtrend
    • blue candlesticks = counter trend

    PEA BUY Capture.JPG

    ski sell Capture.JPG


    qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system
    @qldfrog thread is also trading his version of the Cam Strategy & because of the interest I'm running my CAM strategy for comparison - the only difference is that I tell you & other members in advance to what I'll be to Buying & Selling in the Mondays preauction.

    I also list all the weekly generated signal, trading results, equity curve line chart with additional weekly portfolio reporting so others have a paper trail of the CAM Strategy ongoing progress.

    Newt, PLEASE NOTE (it's critical to the CAM Strategy)
    (a) The CAM system works well in a positive trend & generates a tremendous amount of buy signals (PositionScore is critical to the strategy success)
    (b) In a BEAR market this Strategy performance suffers with large drawdowns.
    (c) The idea of my StaleStop exit is in place for the protection against large draw downs.
    (d) Skate's modified CAM strategy uses a unique set of parameters with additional filters because the standard CAM rules are not enough to maximize the odds of profit, it is mandatory to apply this trading system to a trending universe of stock.

    Your question
    "Presumably you take LONG signals on 1,2 and 4?"

    Quick Answer

    I trade the Standard CAM Strategy (listed below) with additional Filters & parameters because of the highlighted issues listed above in the 'PLEASE NOTE' section.

    Skate's CAM Strategy is a Long ONLY weekly system.

    Enter LONG:
    Buy tomorrow at the open if today is a GOLD-colored bar
    (which represents the CAM-PB, meaning that both the 10-period ADX and
    MACD are declining) but the 14-period CCI is above zero, OR if today
    is a BLUE-colored bar (the 10-period ADX is declining but MACD is rising)
    and today’s close crosses above the 13-period EMA.

    Exit LONG: Sell tomorrow at the open if today is a RED-colored bar (which
    corresponds to the CAM-DN; that is, the 10-period ADX is rising but the
    MACD declines) and today’s close is below the 13-period EMA.

    Previous explanations of how the CAM Strategy works (Reposts)
    https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1016747/

    Skate's CAM Strategy Trade Conditions (weekly updates)
    (a) All Buy positions will be advised in advance before they are taken in the pre-auction. (so you can see the trades as they happen)
    (b) If the pre-auction price is not successful, the position will be cancel at the end of trading day.(Meaning Buy order will be active for one day only)
    (c) Portfolio performance will be posted weekly (Friday after the close)
    (d) The trading results from the 1st January to today are listed for reference. (paper trading commenced 1st January 2019)
    (e) Paper Trading is normally 6 to 12 months.
    (f) As I'm already paper trading this strategy & with the interest in @qldfrog thread I'll run my Cam Strategy for comparison.
    (g) The CAM strategy will be traded as designed with no additional user input or modifications during the paper trading period.

    Skate's CAM Strategy - Main trade settings
    BUY conditions:

    1. If my additional CAM parameters & filters are passed - action item (2) & (3) below
    2. Buy tomorrow at the open if today is a GOLD-colored bar
    (which represents the CAM-PB, meaning that both the 10-period ADX and
    MACD are declining) but the 14-period CCI is above zero, OR
    3. If today is a BLUE-colored bar (the 10-period ADX is declining but MACD is rising)
    and today’s close crosses above the 13-period EMA.

    SELL conditions:
    1. Sell if StaleStop exit is activated OR
    2. Sell tomorrow at the open if today is a RED-colored bar (which corresponds to the CAM-DN - that is, the 10-period ADX is rising but the MACD declines) and today’s close is below the 13-period EMA.

    Post reference (for additional reading)
    https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1013167/

    Post reference (for additional reading)
    https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1012512/

    Post reference (for additional reading)
    https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1012785/

    The post is lengthy but important.

    Skate.
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2019 at 12:20 AM
    peter2, Newt, Trav. and 2 others like this.
  15. qldfrog

    qldfrog

    Posts:
    2,131
    Likes Received:
    289
    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2008
    Thanks @Skate , I also want to add I have tweaked both the entries and the exits, so instead of multiple numerous entries with a position score to determine the best ones, I have stricter criteria and so far less entries
    Trying to limit the DD saw me adding some different exits which do not affect the results too badly if replaying past scenario...not failsafe but as much as I can bear.
    we should see some similar results between our system but they are now quite different
    I completed yesterday the real money purchase to bring me to a start on the 1/02
     
    Skate likes this.
  16. Newt

    Newt

    Posts:
    291
    Likes Received:
    72
    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2012
    Thanks very much for all the detail Skate.

    After digging into the code I wasn't sure if the pullback entry was the only way to use it, but for ASX shares traded long (no shorts) what you describe makes sense.
     
    Skate likes this.
Loading...

Share This Page