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Dump it Here

Discussion in 'Beginner's Lounge' started by Skate, Dec 17, 2018.

sentifi.com

Aussie Stock Forum Sentifi Top themes and market attention on:

  1. luutzu

    luutzu

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    I suppose you did kinda be like them, in spirit.

    I went fishing with friends once. At night. Caught myself a rat. True story. Couldn't swing the hook properly and it being dark I can't see anything. So the thing landed on the rocks a few feet in front or something.
     
  2. Skate

    Skate

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    Gems, lets 'Dump it here' for inspiration.

    A successful person
    The very first step towards success in any occupation is to become interested in it.

    I'll dumps a some gems (IMHO) one at a time as most gems take time to unpack & understand them (instead of the casual glance)

    Skate.
     
  3. Skate

    Skate

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    The law of least effort
    You will think as little as possible.

    Skate.
     
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  4. Skate

    Skate

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    Life
    "Life is not complicated, we complicate life"

    Skate.
     
  5. Skate

    Skate

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    Past, future, present
    Don’t cry over the past, it’s gone
    Don’t stress about the future, it hasn’t arrived
    Live in the present & make the most of it

    Skate.
     
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  6. Skate

    Skate

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    I've left my best till last..

    Wise people
    Wise people learn when they can – fools learn when they must

    Skate.
     
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  7. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Who is the Smarter?

    The person with a degree or
    The person who employs those with a degree?
     
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  8. Skate

    Skate

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    Brains are an overrated attribute when it comes to trading.

    Trading is a process
    Trading is a process, trade, learn, trade, learn..

    Skate.
     
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  9. Skate

    Skate

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    tech/a you should like this one..

    A mistake

    A mistake repeated more than once is a decision.

    Skate
     
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  10. luutzu

    luutzu

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    Neither. A degree doesn't mean you're smart or not. Just mean you went to uni and cramped well enough :xyxthumbs

    As to a boss hiring a smart employee... Both are smart. The first, smart because they know how to employ smart people; the second is also smart.

    But only one will be a lot richer out of it. :D
     
  11. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    I disagree
    I don't see to many brains being used in trading.

    What is it you need to learn?
    How often do we do the same thing day in day out and
    EXPECT a DIFFERENT result?

    What if we are learning things that are of little to no value?
    What if the state of play alters to such a degree that what
    we have learned and applied is no longer valid?

    What is it we need to learn?
     
  12. Skate

    Skate

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    tech/a I've touched on Technical Analysis verses Fundamental Analysis.

    I'll have my last say about chart reading before I move onto the topic of Coding.

    Its your Choice
    Chart reading is one tool, reading financial statements is another, the tool you pick is your choice. The financial market is a complex system, but that doesn’t mean it requires a complex strategy to be successful.

    Coding
    Coding a trading idea stands head & shoulders above all other tools in our trading tool box.(IMHO)

    The problems with Chart Patterns (as I see it)
    Patterns looks good in the middle of the chart when you can only trade at the hard right edge.

    I knew it all along
    Looking back at charts with 20‐20 vision in hindsight is sometimes called the “I‐knew‐it‐all‐along effect,” suggesting that people view events after they happened as more predictable than they were before they occurred & "most" chart readers fall into this category. (At this point I would like to reiterate that I said "MOST" & not "ALL")

    Errors
    Often, we realise our errors after the fact and it is too late.

    Skate.
     
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  13. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    My point EXACTLY

    What happens on the right side of the chart is ALL that matters.
    Trading the right side of the page in the Right direction is the only
    thing you should be striving to do consistently.--Technically OR Fundamentally.

    If markets and Stock move in BOTH directions it just doesn't make sense to
    trade only instruments that trade in one direction!---

    If you know why an instrument moves lower you certainly know that it
    isn't wise to trade it with an expectancy that it will go higher!
     
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  14. Skate

    Skate

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    My beef
    Our education system develops imitators, not pioneers of new ideas but conservatories of tradition and for most of our lives, many of us spend our time listening to someone else feed us information then we are judged on how well we can regurgitate that information back to whomever offered it in the first place.

    Example
    If we are taught that mixing ‘black paint’ with ‘white paint’ makes “purple” paint, any other answer but purple would be wrong. To be correct we need to regurgitate the answer PURPLE. (Grey is just plain wrong)

    Engage other to learn
    Learning must be engaging, if it’s not engaging learning will not take place

    Skate.
     
  15. Skate

    Skate

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    I said
    "Brains are an overrated attribute when it comes to trading"

    tech/a responded (quote of the day & it's way too funny)
    I disagree
    I don't see to many brains being used in trading.

    tech/a also commented
    "What is it we need to learn?"

    Learning leads to Knowledge or Action

    As the saying goes, if what you learn leads to knowledge, you become a fool - but if what you learn leads to action, you can become wealthy.

    We all have a fear of failure

    Everybody has a fear of failure at some level - at times we’ve all been fearful that perhaps we are not enough. Even when we know what to do, our fear can keep us from executing our plans.

    We must learn to take responsibility
    There are so many that refuse to take responsibility when things go wrong, the problem is always caused by someone or something else.

    Skate.
     
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  16. Skate

    Skate

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    Coding
    Most of my days are consumed with coding. Coding new strategies & refining the ones I have.

    Trading System
    It is my belief that to succeed in the financial markets you need to have some kind of trading system in place.

    My aim is to trade consistently & successfully
    Trading is easy, making money trading is the difficult part. Trading consistently & successfully is even hard, which is why the majority of people who try to make money from trading fail.

    The learning curve is steep
    You could read hundreds of books, spend thousands of dollars on seminars, watch the market for years and still not be profitable.

    Tools
    Trading system is complex set of tools, composed of intricate calculations, however, it can be easily employed it can also be used as a simple money management tool that can dramatically increase your returns by helping you avoid substantial losses.

    Skate.
     
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  17. Skate

    Skate

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    The words of Howard Bandy keeps ringing in my ears.

    Howard Bandy Suggestions
    (a) holding a few days at most and
    (b) Holding longer than about three days increases risk considerably.

    December 2016
    Howard Bandy made those comments back in Dec 2016 & his position still currently stands

    Howard Bandy also said
    “Stocks have tendency to revert to the mean and breakouts usually do not last very long. I estimate risk of drawdown based on recent performance, then trade in such a way that I can manage drawdown. That is, holding a few days at most whether long or short. Again and again. The sweet spot is high accuracy and short holding period. Holding longer than about three days increases risk considerably, as does accuracy below about 65%”

    It's easier said than done
    Coding a profitable short holding period strategy is easier said than done & in reality it’s very hard to achieve (IMHO) and so far it has eluded me.

    Stick with what you know
    Howard Bandy confirms he trades this method successfully - but I’ve never been able to code a Daily Strategy anywhere near profitable that I would trade with confidence – that’s why I’m sticking with my Weekly Trend Following System till something better comes along that proves to be profitable.

    Howard is a smart bunny
    Howard knows what he talking about, he's smarter than the average bunny but has any member have an alternative view or opinion ?

    Skate.
     
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  18. Skate

    Skate

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    Tools of the trade
    It's all about which tool we should use when coding a trading strategy

    TA verses FA
    We have touched on "Fundamental Analysis" verses "Technical Analysis" (traders are divided to which is better)

    Something new
    Now it's "Decision Tree process" verses "Machine Learning process" (traders are also divided into two camps over this as well)

    The divide
    There is a divide when it comes to which camp you align with be it 'Fundamental Analysis' verses 'Technical Analysis' – now there is a a greater divide when it comes to coding platforms.

    Traditional platforms (decision tree process) verses ‘Machine Learning’ programs like Python

    Skate.
     
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  19. Ann

    Ann

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    For a start I don't believe there should be a Technical Analysis V Fundamental Analysis. In my opinion a trader/investor should use both and to the best of that person's ability. I am stronger at TA as I am visual and can see patterns quickly and easily. I can recognize when a chart is going up as opposed to down. This is not as simple as it sounds. You need to practice recognizing this.

    Some people look at a chart for a three month period and it looks as though it is rising. If you look at the same chart for five, ten or even fifteen years, it may be falling with a massive downward overhead trendline/resistance line which can cut your trade right out with a single blow. I still struggle with FA but recently looking at Luu's FA charts I am bginning to see some interesting things I had never seen before. I am beginning to see what is potentially important FA information. I just needed to see that stuff on a chart.

    I worry sometimes when people quote companies' "fundamentals" and then parrot the bullsh!t story line put out to catch the gullible.

    There is always an underlying reason for the price of a company at any given time. It is the entire combination of all the FA known and the insider information that is reflected in the price.
    Neither FA nor TA can save you from a massive price collapse but normally a serious price collapse tends to only happen to a stock when it has been travelling sideways at a higher level or has already started falling.

    My favourite TA tools - Very long historical views of a company, hand drawn support and resistance/trend lines, Positive Volume Index, MACD, volume, swing trade calculations, certain patterns and I am now beginning to look at Fibonacci levels as well.

    TA does not have to be this complicated though. Just recognizing the price up ( rising support line), price top across (overhead resistance line), price down shape (falling overhead resistance line) price bottom across (support line) is good enough for a person who feels more comfortable with FA.

    Short term trading is really only viable using TA. Setting entry and exit levels is critical for successful trading IMO regardless if you are going long or short.

    Bottom line, I would never enter a longer term trade without doing a full TA and to the best of my abilities FA analysis. Using only one technique is like fighting a battle with only one arm.
     
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  20. Skate

    Skate

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    Some maintain that ‘traditional platforms’ using decision trees process is adequate whereas others maintain that the new ‘Machine Learning’ programs like Python returns better results.

    Quoting Dr Howard Bandy
    “The business of trading is changing with astonishing speed. It is now about applied mathematics, machine learning, Bayesian statistics. Traders without skills in math, programming, statistical analysis, and scientifically developed trading techniques are at a severe disadvantage. Stephen and his colleagues will "eat the lunch" of unprepared traders”

    Quoting Dr Tomasz Janeczko (Founder of Amibroker)
    “In my opinion throwing more languages (like Python) into the mix just makes things harder, not easier, and is not really necessary as everything is doable within AmiBroker itself, but Howard Bandy and others have other opinion. People have tendency to think in terms "more = better". But the truth is that in programming less is more. And less is better. So don't add complexity when it is not needed”

    Summary
    Traditional trading system platforms as AmiBroker, TradeStation & NinjaTrader uses a decision tree model.

    AmiBroker, TradeStation & NinjaTrader the traditional platforms apply an indicator, then see what happens whereas Machine learning such Python identifies something important then see what came before it.

    Have you something to add ?
    Members wishing to express a view is most welcomed - just remember both platforms are seeking to do the same job, just differently.

    All trading platforms are designed to recognise patterns allowing traders to make a buying or selling decision on those results.

    Skate.
     
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