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LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

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Fat Tail Investment Advisory
Friday, 8 August 2025
Melbourne, Australia
By Greg Canavan

[1 min read]

Sell remaining LYC

Dear finicky
(or may I address you by your youthful nickname - Ace?)

"Lynas Rare Earths’ [ASX:LYC] share price is up another 2.5% today. Its market cap is approaching $12 billion. It trades on 8x sales estimates for 2027 (when higher prices are expected to kick in) and nearly 19x earnings.

That’s probably reasonable for a strategically valuable company like LYC. Only it hasn’t achieved those earnings yet. The end of 2027 is two years away. A lot can happen. Yet the market is pricing in a 12x increase in profits from what the company is expected to deliver in FY25.

I say take the money and run. The good news is in the price. The long-term return prospects from these levels are ordinary.

I recommend selling your remaining holdings in LYC and waiting for better opportunities.

The Permanent Capital Portfolio currently has a 2.32% allocation. I will sell using today’s closing price and exit the position entirely.

I hope you made some good money on this investment."

Not Held
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
@finicky . The aging addled Canno does not realise that calling a top is more difficult than calling a bottom. The bottom is always zero. I'm saying this tapping my head.

gg
Click to expand...
From another thread, @finicky quite a good article on how quality businesses (such as LYC, e.g ) will thrive, by ... Greg Canavan. With thanks to @JohnDe

www.livewiremarkets.com

What the crazy/genius Trump is trying to achieve

The 'exorbitant privilege' of the US dollar as world's reserve currency is coming back to bite it...
www.livewiremarkets.com www.livewiremarkets.com

gg
 
@Garpal Gumnut
"ageing .. addled"?!

Greg is always willing to leave something on the table when his recommended stock far exceeds his overall 'permanent portfolio's' goal of a consistent 12% return per annum. Also, he is a hidden value investor and advisor, so when a stock exceeds his perceived value it goes onto the auction block. Subscribers rely on him for consistent returns - or at least that Is explicitly his self-imposed mandate - he's not going to leave their money hanging at high risk just because faddish market sentiment is hyper bullish.

My Hero

image002.jpg


Greg Canavan is the Editorial Director of Fat Tail Investment Research and Editor of the flagship investment letter, Fat Tail Investment Advisory. The underlying philosophy of the service is that there is a difference between a stock price and the company's underlying value.
 
finicky said:
@Garpal Gumnut

Now it is over-valued.
Click to expand...

Over the years I should have taken my own advice and started to "reduce" holdings of a handful of Stocks whos charts were in a similar position as LYC currently is .... I would be substantially better off if I had. 😣 Certainly not trading advice, but Greg Canavan sounds like a sensible fella.

LYC is in 10 year blue-sky territory however, so anything can happen where there is plenty of oxygen for everyone to breathe!:cool:

1754796500020.png
 
finicky said:
@Garpal Gumnut

Yeah, that article is dated 9th April 2025. Obviously he was bullish LYC at one time, it's been in in p/f recommendations.
Now it is over-valued.

3 month chart going back to April
View attachment 205732
Click to expand...

He likes a two way bet.

A potential example I can share from my existing portfolio is Lynas Rare Earths [ASX:LYC]. Clients bought in when it was unloved during 2023 and 2024. I thought the market was underestimating its strategic value, given its position as the western world’s only integrated rare earths producer. ​
​
Now, the market is well aware of that value. Rare earths and critical minerals are in the headlines every other day. When it’s in the news, it’s in the price. So we’ve gone from a very large position down to a very small one. ​
​
Again, it’s all about risk/reward. Having taken profits on a few other positions and with nothing compelling to add to the portfolio, the cash position in the portfolio is now around 25%. ​
​
To be clear, this is not a bet on the market falling and hoping to time my way back in. It’s about being disciplined with capital and only investing when you’re getting adequate potential reward for the risk you’re taking.​

www.livewiremarkets.com

When cash is also an investment

With the market starting to get a bit wild and silly, its time for a good contrarian piece on the virtue of cash
www.livewiremarkets.com www.livewiremarkets.com
 
I agree with the sentiments foregoing @finicky @barney @JohnDe . I've only come to LYC recently so I guess my animal brain wants it to go to the moon. You would hve to admit that being the only producing RE outside China is significant. from my AI assistant Aria.

Yes, Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) is currently recognized as the only significant producer of rare earth elements outside of China. Here are some key points about Lynas and its role in the rare earths market:


  1. Global Position: Lynas has established itself as the world's only significant producer of separated heavy rare earths outside of China. This is particularly important given China's dominance in the rare earths market.
  2. Production Achievements: Recently, Lynas successfully produced dysprosium oxide at its facility in Malaysia, marking a significant milestone as the first commercial producer of this heavy rare earth element outside of China.
  3. Ethical and Environmental Focus: Lynas is committed to being an ethical and environmentally responsible producer of rare earth materials, which adds to its appeal in the global market.
  4. Market Demand: The demand for rare earth elements is increasing, especially for applications in technology, renewable energy, and defense, making Lynas's role even more critical.

Summary​


  • Lynas Rare Earths is the only significant producer of rare earths outside of China.
  • It has successfully produced dysprosium oxide, enhancing its position in the market.
gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I agree with the sentiments foregoing @finicky @barney @JohnDe . I've only come to LYC recently so I guess my animal brain wants it to go to the moon. You would hve to admit that being the only producing RE outside China is significant. from my AI assistant Aria.

Yes, Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) is currently recognized as the only significant producer of rare earth elements outside of China. Here are some key points about Lynas and its role in the rare earths market:


  1. Global Position: Lynas has established itself as the world's only significant producer of separated heavy rare earths outside of China. This is particularly important given China's dominance in the rare earths market.
  2. Production Achievements: Recently, Lynas successfully produced dysprosium oxide at its facility in Malaysia, marking a significant milestone as the first commercial producer of this heavy rare earth element outside of China.
  3. Ethical and Environmental Focus: Lynas is committed to being an ethical and environmentally responsible producer of rare earth materials, which adds to its appeal in the global market.
  4. Market Demand: The demand for rare earth elements is increasing, especially for applications in technology, renewable energy, and defense, making Lynas's role even more critical.

Summary​


  • Lynas Rare Earths is the only significant producer of rare earths outside of China.
  • It has successfully produced dysprosium oxide, enhancing its position in the market.
gg
Click to expand...
I enjoyed the ride up and have an order to sell half.it does not have to be binary when in doubt, so take some profit and cash out , but keep interested in the company
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I agree with the sentiments foregoing @finicky @barney @JohnDe . I've only come to LYC recently so I guess my animal brain wants it to go to the moon. You would hve to admit that being the only producing RE outside China is significant. from my AI assistant Aria.

Yes, Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) is currently recognized as the only significant producer of rare earth elements outside of China. Here are some key points about Lynas and its role in the rare earths market:


  1. Global Position: Lynas has established itself as the world's only significant producer of separated heavy rare earths outside of China. This is particularly important given China's dominance in the rare earths market.
  2. Production Achievements: Recently, Lynas successfully produced dysprosium oxide at its facility in Malaysia, marking a significant milestone as the first commercial producer of this heavy rare earth element outside of China.
  3. Ethical and Environmental Focus: Lynas is committed to being an ethical and environmentally responsible producer of rare earth materials, which adds to its appeal in the global market.
  4. Market Demand: The demand for rare earth elements is increasing, especially for applications in technology, renewable energy, and defense, making Lynas's role even more critical.

Summary​


  • Lynas Rare Earths is the only significant producer of rare earths outside of China.
  • It has successfully produced dysprosium oxide, enhancing its position in the market.
gg
Click to expand...
Yep pretty much it bloke …

Will like to add (rcw1 assumptions):
5. Franked dividend not too far away; and
6. LYC is a $20 stock …. Within two years as markets and partnerships play a significant roll

Kind regards
rcw1
 
Just from my geopolitical reading of Mr. Trump's mania for acquiring rare earth assets for the US, Ukraine is a good example, it would not surprise me were some of our American cousins building large positions in LYC. To them the share price compared to the company's value is quite small.

If it is the only RE producer outside China and it is now getting in to HRE such as Dysprosium then I see no reason why some large US funds and some large individual investors with odd names like Hank Hall and Brian Schatz would not be buying up the stock. I do hope the Future Fund has a large whack in LYC.

gg
 
finicky said:
Fat Tail Investment Advisory
Friday, 8 August 2025
Melbourne, Australia
By Greg Canavan

[1 min read]

Sell remaining LYC

Dear finicky
(or may I address you by your youthful nickname - Ace?)

"Lynas Rare Earths’ [ASX:LYC] share price is up another 2.5% today. Its market cap is approaching $12 billion. It trades on 8x sales estimates for 2027 (when higher prices are expected to kick in) and nearly 19x earnings.

That’s probably reasonable for a strategically valuable company like LYC. Only it hasn’t achieved those earnings yet. The end of 2027 is two years away. A lot can happen. Yet the market is pricing in a 12x increase in profits from what the company is expected to deliver in FY25.

I say take the money and run. The good news is in the price. The long-term return prospects from these levels are ordinary.

I recommend selling your remaining holdings in LYC and waiting for better opportunities.

The Permanent Capital Portfolio currently has a 2.32% allocation. I will sell using today’s closing price and exit the position entirely.

I hope you made some good money on this investment."

Not Held
Click to expand...
yikes... ace in a hole?

had to log out to read what was there. as Uncle Pernickity has me on block. (grâce à dieu)
 
Last edited:
barney said:
Over the years I should have taken my own advice and started to "reduce" holdings of a handful of Stocks whos charts were in a similar position as LYC currently is .... I would be substantially better off if I had. 😣 Certainly not trading advice, but Greg Canavan sounds like a sensible fella.

LYC is in 10 year blue-sky territory however, so anything can happen where there is plenty of oxygen for everyone to breathe!:cool:

View attachment 205734
Click to expand...
Good afternoon @barney
Hoping the punt going well for ya bloke.

One of LYC’s strength, for mine, comes directly from its CEO/Managing Director - Amanda Lacaze…

A good thing mate.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
rcw1 said:
Good afternoon @barney
Hoping the punt going well for ya bloke.
Click to expand...

Lol ...thanks @rcw1 .... I am a bona fide Mug Punter who backs unlikely nags in similar fashion as I do with my Stocks :happy:

In the end I always lose with my horse punting but I only do it for entertainment, so break even days represent cheap fun.:singing:

I had a few punts earlier today, mostly losing .... but a little voice told me that this totally unloved "lady" with 1 win from 21 starts was better odds than her form suggested ... especially 3rd up from a spell !!

Got me back to better than break even for the day, lol. (We wont mention the last few days however!)

1754813896944.png


ps Apologies just realised this is not the punting thread, so to keep it on topic ... LYC .......

Just an observation, but the high Volume bars occur at "obvious" times of the trading day ... :bookworm:

One could possibly formulate a strategy around when to buy/sell/reduce or accumulate perhaps?? ;)

1754814353488.png
 
Hah ..... I hear you scoff @Dona Ferentes ... but in reality ... I know you want my punting tips!! ... lol.

Put the house on a place punt .... Dog 5 at Murray Bridge Race 9 ;)
 

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