Is that so?
Take a look at that abomination ^^ a.k.a Japan's 225 Nikkei average.
Imagine you held those blue-ship shares of a country who had once a "world model" of an economy, 17 years past that and you still have a stock market that's nearly 26,000 points down from that day. And joy for those folks still holding as Japan as on the verge of ANOTHER recession.
Ofcourse maybe in another 20 years it might finally get back up, or maybe not, but geez, long wait, I guess they've already passed those shares onto their kids or grandkids though.
Even the major Euro markets (FTSE, Dax) haven't broken past their all-time highs since the tech bubble burst!
But I'm guessing they'll just take a LOT more time and really - who wouldn't be frustrated at waiting for those to get back lol
I'm with Nizar on this one.
But hey we could have that 1 in 100 yr event!
This is only to Y2000!!---gets better!
How? I think it's an improbable yet realistic scenario for any stock market... I'd agree it was a bit silly if I mentioned the NASDAQ which is tech dominated, but the companies in the Nikkei 225 are pretty big entities and very diversified. However at the time there was a huge property bubble in Japan, I don't think we're in a commodities bubble as China and India are truly industralising and that it's a long term process and our companies have very realistic valuations.Vishalt,
That is just being silly to compare the XAO to the Nikkei - it is like comparing a pitbull to a sausage dog, totally different animals and breeds.
Please - you can do better than argue this.
I'm with Nizar on this one.
But hey we could have that 1 in 100 yr event!
This is only to Y2000!!---gets better!
Yeh, but for 2,3,4,5 years, then back up again, which is what I said in my initial post about this whole topic.
Anyway, i think we will just agree to disagree at this point.
We have a housing crash, you can replace Enron/ Worldcom with Bear Stearns this time around (with others sure to come in this down turn). All you need now is a freak political event, and it's the same scenario.
I don't see any signs of mass sell offs yet. I see buyers lowering their bids but not a lot of sellers jumping yet. If you ignore a few financials and big resource stocks the rest of the market probably isn't all that bad.
Anyone see it different?
This is a interesting point Lucky_Country. As we know, the market is a forward looking beast, but with what information, and how far? How much fear and greed is factored into the long term funnymentals? The point about whether a recession is factored in is important, and it probably is, but how deep? And, does recession in the US precipitate a world recession, or is it just a sentimental effect? With all the 'information' that may or may not be correct, due in large part to Hogwart's Accounting Principles, who the heck knows exactly where the world stands funnymentally? I resort to Nizar's long term XAO chart which shows the market trending long term UP. Short to medium term corrections present opportunities for those not putting their eggs in one little basket.I think the market is getting sick of bad news from US and has already factored in a recession so anything but a recession is viewed as a positive.
I think some stocks have reached their low and unless they come out with individual bad news they aint going lower.
Now all that being said if China and India were too slow that then may have a more negative impact but read a post on bloomberg today staing India growing at 9% and 2008 is going too be a bumper year for growth there
Yep, good points idgehuh (hard to pronounce)I think the market is getting sick of bad news from US and has already factored in a recession so anything but a recession is viewed as a positive.
I think some stocks have reached their low and unless they come out with individual bad news they aint going lower.
Now all that being said if China and India were too slow that then may have a more negative impact but read a post on bloomberg today staing India growing at 9% and 2008 is going too be a bumper year for growth there
I think the market is getting sick of bad news from US and has already factored in a recession so anything but a recession is viewed as a positive.
I think some stocks have reached their low and unless they come out with individual bad news they aint going lower.
Now all that being said if China and India were too slow that then may have a more negative impact but read a post on bloomberg today staing India growing at 9% and 2008 is going too be a bumper year for growth there
AVERAGE ANNUAL PAY-CHINA
Project manager: £12,173
Software engineer: £6,998
Accountant: £4,677
Sales rep: £2,649
Production worker: £1,214
Source: Mercer Human Resource Consulting
AVERAGE ANNUAL PAY-INDIA
Project manager: £5,220
Software engineer: £5,344
Accountant: £2,956
Sales rep: £2,464
Production worker: £964
Source: Mercer Human Resource Consulting
US 9 trillion dollar consumer economy, China 1 trillion dollar consumer economy.
The average wage in China is about 2pc of the average wage in the US. I dont see a boom in Ipods and Plasmas in the developing world anytime soon.
Decoupling is a untried "theory".
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4436692.stm
US 9 trillion dollar consumer economy, China 1 trillion dollar consumer economy.
The average wage in China is about 2pc of the average wage in the US. I dont see a boom in Ipods and Plasmas in the developing world anytime soon.
Decoupling is a untried "theory".
I think the economies of China and India are far greater than the size of the US
and most of there demand is too feed the homegrown growth not all but some of it is US related.
Now the US plus EU now thats a big economy factor but again the growth of China India Russia Brasil far outweighs the combination of US and EU.
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