XAO Technical Analysis

Trembling Hand · 12 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Sound good Gurgler.

As far as adding your own words. Knock yourself out. Nothing to fear in adding your opinions or questions and even articles if they are helpful in getting you point across.

theasxgorilla · 13 November 2007

Re:

trembling Hand said:
My point is that this thread is titled XAO Analysis but it seems to have become a place to cut and paste articles from journalist.

Posters,

TH has a point here. Cutting and pasting entire articles about something to do with finance in some part of the world and inferring it to be connected with XAO Analysis is a bit too much of a stretch. I won't pull the original articles as they're now well and truly part of the history of this thread.

Going forward, feel free to find a more appropriate thread for this kind of news, or failing the existance of one, don't hesitate to create your own.

Thanks,

ASX.G

Awesomandy · 13 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

We might have a quiet day on the market today. We had a public holiday in the US, and FTSE is up a little (33 points). The futures are pretty much steady at the moment. However, the points difference between the XAO and XJO is now 78 points. AUD/USD now down to around 88c. JPY/USD is just on110. It looks like we need some seriously good news to get things back up again.

macca · 13 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi Andy,

I have been watching the XAO / XJO gap as well.

I have had a look back through the charts and I can't find a bigger gap anywhere ( not exhaustive, but over recent times)

The only thing I can think of is that the BIG money is going home and we have an influx of Euro money playing the smaller resources.

Or, perhaps it is the money flowing into small cap funds being invested into the market.

Anyone else have any thoughts on it ?

nizar · 13 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

XJO was leading for about 2 years before earlier this year when the XAO started taking over.
Obviously means the small stocks are making more gains than the top200.

Re: DJIA, it must be getting awfully close to where it rebounded in the last correction??

I have 12845 as the lowest close with 12517 as intraday low.

So we should be near the bottom of this correction?

I think so. The DOW has given up more than 1000pts from the top.

Thoughts??

Sean K · 13 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

nizar said:
XJO was leading for about 2 years before earlier this year when the XAO started taking over.
Obviously means the small stocks are making more gains than the top200.

Re: DJIA, it must be getting awfully close to where it rebounded in the last correction??

I have 12845 as the lowest close with 12517 as intraday low.

So we should be near the bottom of this correction?

I think so. The DOW has given up more than 1000pts from the top.

Thoughts??

I agree. 12800 ish for me. Maybe equates to 6450 ish on the XAO if they move together ish.

nizar · 13 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
I agree. 12800 ish for me. Maybe equates to 6450 ish on the XAO if they move together ish.

Yeah and 6400-50 on the XAO is where that stubborn resistance was from back in June/July.

Trembling Hand · 13 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

macca said:
Hi Andy,

I have been watching the XAO / XJO gap as well.

I have had a look back through the charts and I can't find a bigger gap anywhere ( not exhaustive, but over recent times)

The only thing I can think of is that the BIG money is going home and we have an influx of Euro money playing the smaller resources.

Or, perhaps it is the money flowing into small cap funds being invested into the market.

Anyone else have any thoughts on it ?

Macca
I knocked together a chart of the smallest 200 companies in the XAO. I call them the SAOs(Smallest Allordinaries) and compared it to the XAO. As you can see they are growing faster than the Large caps. That would be the reason for the XAO outperforming the XJO. If fact if this trend continues this divergence could really open up. What is interesting is the lower low just put in from the SAOs something to watch? A bit of flight from risk?

dj_420 · 13 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

XJO chart shows a few things:

Looks like a blow off top at 6,859. Looks like old resistance could form support at 6,414. A break through this level and I put next level of support at 6,200 ish where we had a period of consolidation and showed some sort of support.

Next level after that would be 6,072.

In past 200 MDA has provided some sort of support, in recent months however it has dropped straight through that point.

XJO in definite downtrend just depends where we will find some support.

nikki · 13 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

DJ_420 and trembling hand - just wanted to say thanks for your charts. i found your analysis helpful and very interesting.

i read this on a news service:

"The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index was up 1.0% at 6519.5 around 0251 GMT after hitting a seven-week low of 6437.3 in early trading.

The index has found support from a former major resistance level near 6437.0, after falling 6% in the past seven days.

"We were trading yesterday in anticipation of the U.S. crapping out and it didn't," said Goldman Sachs JBWere senior trader Patrick Crabb. "There's lots of volatility, but some of those stocks that were poleaxed are attracting some interest."

Seems like someone else called the bottom today on certain type of trading activity anyway (e.g. ABS).

rub92me · 15 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Quite a sell off in the afternoon for the XAO, the slide masked by significant gains on ZFX and FMG (I'm assuming they're in there?). Not out of the woods yet in my opinion.

Trembling Hand · 15 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

rub92me said:
Quite a sell off in the afternoon for the XAO, the slide masked by significant gains on ZFX and FMG (I'm assuming they're in there?). Not out of the woods yet in my opinion.

Mostly Futures driven I would think. Once we stalled at yesterday’s highs and rolled over taking out the mornings lows that gap from yesterday would of been standing out to be fill on Future Traders charts like Dogs ****.

Trembling Hand · 16 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Just to illustrate the changing market of the last 6 months compared to the 4 year bull run. I have marked on the XJO chart below consolidation periods followed by breakouts. There has only been two downside breaks from a consolidation since the Bull run started and they have been in the last 4 months!!

I'm thinking that some peoples 'systems' will start to stall if they don't make adjustments to them. That is of course if what I believe will be more of a stop start market continues. That the game may well turn into more of a buy low sell a bit higher game rather than a buy and wait for the break high.

Sean K · 20 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

EWers could put some more detail in the 5 wave down on this probably but wonder if the 6450 ish will hold?

MS+Tradesim · 27 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

What's up with the XAO today? Has risen solidly since 1:20pm.

Awesomandy · 27 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

MS+Tradesim said:
What's up with the XAO today? Has risen solidly since 1:20pm.

Not really sure, but I'm guessing it's due to Abu Dhabi's shopping trip.

Nyden · 27 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

MS+Tradesim said:
What's up with the XAO today? Has risen solidly since 1:20pm.

I noticed that, risen quite sharply. I don't know if it will hold though - certainly hope it does though p

Could be "bargain" hunters, punting on a green day in the US overnight? I was hoping to see volatility disappear over the holiday season, so far it hasn't panned out.

In truth though - maybe people are just becoming desensitised to the US movement overnight, I know I sure am - I used get quite upset over a plunge of .5-1% in the US markets...now, a 2.3% plunge doesn't even phase me. I just roll my eyes & wait for it to bounce back...yet again.

So, perhaps others like myself have just gotten sick of it! Continuing on with business as usual, it is all rather irrational, & inefficient.

Kauri · 27 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

How the Nikkei reacts to Citi/ADIA news after their Sushi break will decide our afternoon I think...
Cheers
.........Kauri

dhukka · 28 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Today's rally off the lows was a sucker's rally. The Citi news is not good. Straight away if you are Citi shareholder you've just lost 4% of your money because of the dilution of the ADIA investment. On top of that the 11% they have to pay on the ADIA units means an annual cost of $825 million impacting earnings.

Not to mention that this $7.5 billion is not anywhere near enough to shore up their capital ratios. Expect further asset sales or further dilutive investments going forward.

Uncle Festivus · 28 November 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Yes, the US has started to sell their assets at firesale prices - desperate times ahead?

The market perverseness continues? Could be the start of a belated bullish phase leading into the next interest rate cut by the US Fed (on the road to zero %)? The markets generally are short term oversold. Should be a couple of days of strong gains ahead, then back to the bear.

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