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XAO Technical Analysis

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I see today as significant.
The impulse reversal bar continued today after a shallow morning rally.
Yesterdays bar is in control and price to the upside will find this bars range resistance.
It did today and we saw price make a lower low.
 
tech/a said:
I see today as significant.
The impulse reversal bar continued today after a shallow morning rally.
Yesterdays bar is in control and price to the upside will find this bars range resistance.
It did today and we saw price make a lower low.
Click to expand...

Chart?
 
tech/a said:
On my computer I'm in a pub.
Click to expand...

Okay...i'll post one for ya...don't say i never did anything for ya though!

(I'd give my left gonad to be in a pub in Adelaide having a nice greasy mixed Grill right now...washed down with a McLaren Vale red or two)
 

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CanOz said:
Okay...i'll post one for ya...don't say i never did anything for ya though!

(I'd give my left gonad to be in a pub in Adelaide having a nice greasy mixed Grill right now...washed down with a McLaren Vale red or two)
Click to expand...

you prob would be giving a gonad after that indignant attack on your own gullet.....
 
I am very cautious about the current market. There has been many false breakouts at 5000 on XAO previously. I believe this time is likely no different.

A quarterly-candle perspective:


~ Scott
 

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At important times in the market often bourses and individual stocks will show very similar patterns.
Here the XJO and the DJIA still mirror similar topping pasterns.

Click to expand

 
Not a sophisticated analysis, weekly XAO. The oscillators say caution, although a strong uptrend behind it. However sreeve's support level, in post two above, is certainly a possibility, the index has run a long way above the 50wk EMA.
 

kool chart.

Its kinda funny in a way because I just went back and had a look, the XAO breadth charts are now all on a SELL or NEGATIVE position.

Now...here is the interesting thing.

1) normally on the all ords a correction is about 800 pts or so on average.

2) Lets take your chart and a top in march - 800 gets right back down SMACK BANG to those averages ....and VIOLA.....this seems to be adding up well.

Very interesting.
 

Why don't you post a freebie Sentiment Trader, lets see those breadth charts, share the love
 
CanOz said:
Why don't you post a freebie Sentiment Trader, lets see those breadth charts, share the love
Click to expand...

Good idea, we are all mates on here (unless you see us as likely customers - nah - you wouldn't be thinking that).
 
Boggo said:
Good idea, we are all mates on here (unless you see us as likely customers - nah - you wouldn't be thinking that).
Click to expand...

Check out that blog! I read the Bitcoin article, and I was wondering how come it seemed so familiar, well its just ripped off content from actual journalists and bloggers.

Not to mention "Sentiment Trader" is already an established business in the US http://www.sentimentrader.com/ featured on ZH and mentioned by Dr. Brett Steenbarger once or twice.
 

I'm more worried about what's happening to the poor trannie.
 
Banks - 'cup' and continuation.
Telcos - continuation.
Big Resources - top of downsloping channel, at resistance.
Gold stocks - blip upwards, still on the nose imo.
XAO - double bottom breakout yesterday.

Bullish

Remember when Brian from Family Guy did this dance? :bananasmi That was a good episode.
 
It's all very bullish isn't it?

Quite a few tight flag/pennant set ups happening (BHP, ILU). Some cup/handles (WOW), triangle breakouts looming (CBA). Lots of continuations (QBE).
 
Happy Days

XAO back to the mean.


Broken Resistance. Will it remain above the 50% fibonacci retracement?


Broken Resistance. Will 5000 be the new support?


If the XAO can find support around 5,000 then it is happy days ahead. I can't see the market getting too exuberant from here - not with an election looming in September. The market has re-rated risk and pushed down yields and pushed up PEs fairly high given the low earnings growth of a lot of the blue chips. Hopefully it will be slow and steady recovery. The initial catalysts for continue bullishness might be a correction of the AUD, recovery or stabilization of commodity prices in the medium term, commodity export volumes increases in the pipeline, a pick up in global growth and a pick up in domestic company earnings.

Previous major Bear Markets.
Date of top - date reached again.
Sep 87 - Jan 94 (6y 3m)
Jan 70 - Sep 79 (9y 9m)
May 51 - Sep 57 (6y 4m)
Mar 37 - Nov 45 (8y 8m)
 
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