XAO Technical Analysis

CamKawa · 28 May 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Great contribution, thanks Nick.

Broadway · 1 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I thought last week was fairly interesting.

At the start of the week the USD made a bottom, which in the past few months has meant a rally in equity markets in Aus and overseas. (remember mid-march and mid-april?)

Well, the rest of the world kept to this script and climbed most of the week.

But the xao got pressured from falling base metals and oil, ending down.

So the xao seems to have decoupled from the world for a while, and I think this theme will keep going.

So my crystal ball is telling me the XAO will be heading UP for this week coming, especially because copper, bhp and the spi all seem to have increased volume on friday. (and the spi tried to climb friday night as well.)

As for the rest of the world I see them heading down over the next few days, mainly because the usd looks to be turning down, and us bonds looked to have turned up.

Anyone else agree or disagree? Feel free to comment.
I'm only commenting for 1 week ahead. I'm sure there will be another correction in the next 6 months, but what interests me is the next week coming.

Have a good week.

Euler · 2 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Re Index intraday live data .....

can anyone advise if the indices (XAO, XJO, etc) are dynamic live calculation feeds from the ASX or are they snapshots.

I'm looking at a particular live feed and the XJO update is at 30seconds intervals.

Need to work out if the indices calculated at this rate or whether it is determined by your data provider.

Trembling Hand · 2 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Euler said:
can anyone advise if the indices (XAO, XJO, etc) are dynamic live calculation feeds from the ASX or are they snapshots.

All indices are live snap shot.

Euler · 2 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
All indices are live snap shot.

What time frame?

Trembling Hand · 2 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Euler said:
What time frame?

Who cares?? They are not tradable. If you want a leading indicator have a look at futures. Ever Exchange is diff ASX every 30 secs on the min and 1/2 min. US exchanges every 15 sec.

Euler · 2 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Who cares?? ........ ASX every 30 secs on the min and 1/2 min .....

Only interested in ASX, so if it's 30sec it answers my query.
thx

Whiskers · 2 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Well, just looking at my indicators... I think I can safely call leg 4, iv, d, or whatever, done and the kick on for leg 5, v, e, or whatever, is underway.

PS: Woops, one of them just went away.

Some nervous traders not wanting to hold overnight.

Boggo · 3 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Interesting chart after today in relation to its retracement zone.

If it holds above approx 5790 then I think my count is valid.

6400 next ?

My

Mike

.

Whiskers · 3 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Boggo said:
Interesting chart after today in relation to its retracement zone.

If it holds above approx 5790 then I think my count is valid.

6400 next ?

My

Mike

.

Sounds about right to me.

But the brits and yanks aren't doing us any favors yet.

A bit of a slow start. Mondayitis I think.

After they come back from lunch they should wake up and get going.

juw177 · 3 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
After they come back from lunch they should wake up and get going.

They sure got going. Lunch in the US and DOW went from -150 to -200 within 15min.

wayneL · 3 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

It looks as though credit crunch phase II is getting underway; US & UK financials in a spot of bother. This will impact.

theasxgorilla · 3 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
It looks as though credit crunch phase II is getting underway; US & UK financials in a spot of bother. This will impact.

I don't see anything too serious on the equity indices, but treasuries look very soft.

theasxgorilla · 3 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

theasxgorilla said:
I don't see anything too serious on the equity indices, but treasuries look very soft.

Scratch that comment...data blip.

wayneL · 3 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

theasxgorilla said:
I don't see anything too serious on the equity indices,

No, but it's very grim on the High Street.

ref: Bradford and Bingley are in deep sh!te. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t...ectors/banking_and_finance/article4047716.ece

wayneL · 3 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
No, but it's very grim on the High Street.

ref: Bradford and Bingley are in deep sh!te. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t...ectors/banking_and_finance/article4047716.ece

More:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={C36129D1-6EA6-4357-9869-51413980BC53}

...Standard & Poor's cut its debt ratings on three large brokerages, adding to earlier losses stemming from upheavals at Wachovia Corp. and Washington Mutual Inc.

The ratings agency disclosed its downgrades involving Lehman Brothers Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. and Morgan Stanley in a release, citing "the potential for more write-offs."
"Concerns in the financial sector have been in the spotlight, following trouble at the U.K. lender Bradford & Bingley, while management shake-ups at Wachovia and Washington Mutual have unsettled the markets as well," said analysts at Action Economics.

Boggo · 3 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Yep, the XFJ (S&P ASX 200 Fin) is going to be the fly in the ointment.

Could the bottom right of this piccy be a possibility ?

Mike
.

davo8 · 3 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
It looks as though credit crunch phase II is getting underway; US & UK financials in a spot of bother. This will impact.

It's a bit early. The curtain goes up on phase II in around July-August. This is just the orchestra tuning up.

We should get a good bit of fall out, but if the housing market turns here like everywhere else, we'll soon find out if they are as good as we've been told they are. Watch the XFJ!

Whiskers · 6 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
LOVE to see an EW perspective of what HAS been....

LOL

Whiskers said:
Well, just looking at my indicators... I think I can safely call leg 4, iv, d, or whatever, done and the kick on for leg 5, v, e, or whatever, is underway.

PS: Woops, one of them just went away.

Some nervous traders not wanting to hold overnight.

Well, as they say... if you want a job done well ya gotta do it yourself.

Whiskers said:
(From post and DJIA chart on Immiment and Severe Market thread.)

... and I think I may have worked it out. :bananasmi

What I am thinking is the US finished a 5 leg up and had a little corrective wave A, B, C... which stretched out the XAO wave 4.

I reckon we've finally hit bottom for awhile again... and I have a theory why some other counts are wrong.

I know I'm a brilliant student... ... but can someone please mark my assignment.

I agree with the more recent part of Boggo's count and his projection.

It seems to me that the leg 5 target is 6258 minimum.

PS: I charted up on my med/long term chart which does not include Fridays action, not the daily/short term one that I got my initial false start signal from.

The yellow line is the long term Standard Deviation Line that I initially figured into my support base.

theasxgorilla · 6 June 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers...can wave 4 overlap the top of wave 1?

XAO Technical Analysis

CamKawa

Broadway

Euler

Trembling Hand

Can be found on the bid

Euler

Trembling Hand

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Euler

Whiskers

It's a small world

Boggo

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Whiskers

It's a small world

juw177

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

Boggo

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davo8

The Random Walker

Whiskers

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theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

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