XAO Technical Analysis

ColB · 21 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Some say up, some say down, but can someone please tell me why the all ords would drop down to the 4800 mark. Does that mean 15-20% lower based on todays value. I've just seen my portfolio creep up from being nearly $50k down to now just $20k down. If the all ords are going to head back to under 5000 I think I might need to bail out of many stocks soon. What to do?? Any advice appreciated all you guru's. ColB

Trembling Hand · 21 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

ColB said:
If the all ords are going to head back to under 5000 I think I might need to bail out of many stocks soon. What to do?? Any advice appreciated all you guru's.

All just personal opinions/guesses i.e. not investment advice. for all you know we haven't even $50,ooo between us.

nomore4s · 21 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
My Crystal ball is saying UP. Some particular aggressive buying today on the SPI. Not your usual local swingers playing the game today. Would not be surprised to see the highest weekly close in 10 Weeks come Friday.
How's that for a prediction?

I agree TH.

Todays bar looks quite promising, strong up day, close at the high, increasing volume after Fridays low vol down day.

In an earlier post I wanted to see some support around the 5350-5400 area for an on going bullish view, we seem to have got that.

Now need to overcome the resistance at 5700, but atm it looks promising, but as we all know that could change tomorrow.

PS - Would still expect 5200 to be tested at some stage, but bullish for the moment.

Whiskers · 21 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
I agree TH.

Todays bar looks quite promising, strong up day, close at the high, increasing volume after Fridays low vol down day.

In an earlier post I wanted to see some support around the 5350-5400 area for an on going bullish view, we seem to have got that.

Now need to overcome the resistance at 5700, but atm it looks promising, but as we all know that could change tomorrow.

Yeah, I concur.

But, these EW's are a concern re medium term outlook. As per a conversation with tech/a earlier in thread, it seems we need to get a bit over 6,000 this leg up to reduce the EW prospect for their low below 5,000.

I'm still thinking up toward 6,000 + for a couple or three weeks and...

PS - Would still expect 5200 to be tested at some stage, but bullish for the moment.

another low, but not lower low about late May.

I'm still bullish for the rest of this year, but timing of kick is dependent on when the USD strengthens a bit. I'm thinking the USD/EUR may have to pop up to 1.62/3 to precipitate this.

nomore4s · 22 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
Now the profit reporting season is about to start and you think all the bad news is priced in?

I don't know if the bad news is completely priced in or not, but I do know the bad news is not having the same effect it was. So I would have to guess it has been priced in to some extent.

We will need some thing new to get us to a new low I would think, and I'm sure it's not far away (just for all you bears).

Kauri · 22 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Not the XAO butt... if you tink the 200 follows the SP... finely balanced.. as opposed to myself who is finely unbalanced.. I am told..

Cheers
............Kauri

CFD · 22 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

It's a girl!

MRC & Co · 22 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

ColB said:
Some say up, some say down, but can someone please tell me why the all ords would drop down to the 4800 mark. Does that mean 15-20% lower based on todays value. I've just seen my portfolio creep up from being nearly $50k down to now just $20k down. If the all ords are going to head back to under 5000 I think I might need to bail out of many stocks soon. What to do?? Any advice appreciated all you guru's. ColB

Cannot give advice, I trade on a day to day basis. Price action, so I do not believe in predictions (though like all, I do like to make them ). But more just for the fun, I never trade them if price does not go according to plan.

4800 is based on one simple premise, company profits. F/A at it's finest and I tend to agree. When this could be hit, no idea.

ShareIt · 22 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

ColB said:
Some say up, some say down, but can someone please tell me why the all ords would drop down to the 4800 mark. Does that mean 15-20% lower based on todays value. I've just seen my portfolio creep up from being nearly $50k down to now just $20k down. If the all ords are going to head back to under 5000 I think I might need to bail out of many stocks soon. What to do?? Any advice appreciated all you guru's. ColB

Perhaps hold on for a little longer because the buyers have seemed to taken back control as of yesterday. Today that 5,600 level was defended quite well... and looking at the US, same story, the buyers have taken control and defended it so far. A good close below the 5,600 level might be a time to cash in (a good close meaning a 50 - 100 point close below, that way you avoid a possible down fake).... goodluck

davo8 · 23 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

ColB said:
Some say up, some say down, but can someone please tell me why the all ords would drop down to the 4800 mark. ColB

1. Because the fundamentals depend on company profits. If there is bad news to come, as insiders get it prices will drop.
2. Because the cashflow depends on whether investors as a whole are entering or leaving the market. Cash at 8%+ will keep some people out (including me).
3. Because the charts say the trend is down. There is no bottom (yet); there is resistance overhead around 5700-5900 and support at 5200; and no-one knows which will hold.
4. Because the known bad news is priced in, but the unknown bad news yet to come is not. The US markets are levitating against a general downturn. I believe a major drop in the US would see our 5200 level fail, and 4800 is the next natural target.

Junior · 23 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
2. Because the cashflow depends on whether investors as a whole are entering or leaving the market. Cash at 8%+ will keep some people out (including me).

Remember, however, that the cash rate in the US is next to zero, and the XAO is still following the US market.

Trembling Hand · 23 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Punters she going to pop its head over this resistance? I Would like to order a tight range day tomorrow with an pop Friday morning please.

ShareIt · 23 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Punters she going to pop its head over this resistance? I Would like to order a tight range day tomorrow with an pop Friday morning please.

One pop coming up, but you will have to wait till monday.... i got to serve the Anzac customers first on Friday, fully booked restaurant so will be closed all day

Trembling Hand · 23 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

ShareIt said:
One pop coming up, but you will have to wait till monday.... i got to serve the Anzac customers first on Friday, fully booked restaurant so will be closed all day

Whoops!!

OK lets see if I can organize the Big Boyz to make a bang tomorrow.

Uncle Festivus · 23 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Punters she going to pop its head over this resistance? I Would like to order a tight range day tomorrow with an pop Friday morning please.

Being a volume tracker TH, can we use the Dow as a close proxy correlation for the XAO? Trying hard to pop without volume support? What would tip the Dow over the resistance? Or is it capitulation time again?

Trembling Hand · 23 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Uncle Festivus said:
Being a volume tracker TH, can we use the Dow as a close proxy correlation for the XAO? Trying hard to pop without volume support? What would tip the Dow over the resistance? Or is it capitulation time again?

Yes its at an important level for sure. Interestingly the open interest on the SPI had a HUGE jump on Friday & Monday to back up my big boyz stepping up theory. Over 22,000 contracts added during that time.

Interesting that the equities vol has dropped off while the Futures has picked up or been constant in the case of the US. Punters been scared off just as we push up? Always hard to figure if a rise on small vol after a big drop is a positive (no more sellers) or a negative (no real conviction from the masses)

In any case I believe that the market has been controlled by the Futures since this meltdown started and for once it looks, just a bit, that the big Futures swingers may have swapped sides.

But you would think the shorts haven't lost control yet. (hows that for a fence sit?)

MRC & Co · 23 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Always hard to figure if a rise on small vol after a big drop is a positive (no more sellers) or a negative (no real conviction from the masses)

After a large drop, better to see volume high or pick up on narrow ranges if consolidating or larger upward ranges if pushing higher again (either way, best to see volume I beleive). Indicates accumulation. From what I have read and observed. The ranges and close are key.

Trembling Hand · 23 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
After a large drop, better to see volume high or pick up on narrow ranges if consolidating or larger upward ranges if pushing higher again (either way, best to see volume I beleive). Indicates accumulation. From what I have read and observed. The ranges and close are key.

Yes BUT,

Has the accumulation happened on the drop? A meltdown like we have been through has shaken the weak and sent them packing. Who is left. The un-leveraged, patient and strong. Have they been on the end of a bargain? Time will tell.

Motorway etc would maybe able to explain things better. But have we had accumulation or capitulation or distribution on this drop. And who has been on the other end.

wavepicker · 23 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Some possible short term weakness for this evening??

Whiskers · 23 April 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
Some possible short term weakness for this evening??

I find myself agreeing with you again, WP.

I've been thinking we won't kick on too hard until next week after the FOMC meet and probably top out this leg up in early May.

I see you have a 5 there, so if this wave is toppy, how many wavelets (if that is the right term) in a sub wave down can we expect... in a week?

XAO Technical Analysis

ColB

Trembling Hand

Can be found on the bid

nomore4s

Commonsense isn't that common

Attachments

Whiskers

It's a small world

nomore4s

Commonsense isn't that common

Kauri

E/W Learner

Attachments

CFD

MRC & Co

ShareIt

davo8

The Random Walker

Junior

Trembling Hand

Can be found on the bid

ShareIt

Trembling Hand

Can be found on the bid

Uncle Festivus

Attachments

Trembling Hand

Can be found on the bid

MRC & Co

Trembling Hand

Can be found on the bid

wavepicker

Attachments

Whiskers

It's a small world

Similar threads

XAO Technical Analysis

Can be found on the bid

Commonsense isn't that common

Attachments

It's a small world

Commonsense isn't that common

E/W Learner

Attachments

The Random Walker

Can be found on the bid

Can be found on the bid

Attachments

Can be found on the bid

Can be found on the bid

Attachments

It's a small world

Similar threads

Privacy & Transparency

Privacy & Transparency