XAO Technical Analysis

Morgan · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
I've got a feeling today is just panic buying

All the punters trying to get back losses, & trying to jump on the new "bull"

When do they release the figures on if China is actually being affected? That will be one of the true catalysts for our market, at least.

FTSE didn't rally this strong, sucker rally anyone?

Despite the jump in the All ORds, from what I'm observing this morning on many stocks (ie twice as many buyers as sellers for a similar total number of units) - I get the feeling the "smart money" is still offloading.

Pretty much all in cash now and resisting the urge to panic buy

Temjin · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

hahah a quote for the day

Never fight against the federal reserve

Did anyone realise that the biggest gain in the stock market history was the day AFTER the biggest LOST day?

The federal reserve cut did came as a surprise, but then the pattern of a big day down and then a big day up was almost a history repeat of the 1929s!

The smart money will definitely sell on the rally up.

Kauri · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

in... and out... on the same day... for me anyways... until the markets resolve one way or tother.. in my ears volume and ranges will speak loudest...
Cheers
.........Kauri

dhukka · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

CPI came in at an elevated 0.9 for Dec qtr. Normally I would say an RBA rate rise would be a given. However the last few weeks have been less than normal.

Anyone know where I can get a quote on Aussie interest rate futures? Nick Radge mentioned they had priced in a further rise a few weeks back. Interesting to see what they are saying now.

Sean K · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
CPI came in at an elevated 0.9 for Dec qtr. Normally I would say an RBA rate rise would be a given. However the last few weeks have been less than normal.

They almost have to with a 9 don't they Dhukka. 7 no, 8 coin toss....

dhukka · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
They almost have to with a 9 don't they Dhukka. 7 no, 8 coin toss....

Yeah I thought a .6 would be no, .7 would be iffy, .8 most likely .9 foregone conclusion. The RBA sat back in December and talked about global credit problems. However an RBA speech last week suggested they don't see major fallout for the Australian economy from the US slowdown and see inflation as the biggest risk. Looks like a hike is to me, the Aussie dollar seems to be confirming that.

Nyden · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
CPI came in at an elevated 0.9 for Dec qtr. Normally I would say an RBA rate rise would be a given. However the last few weeks have been less than normal.

Anyone know where I can get a quote on Aussie interest rate futures? Nick Radge mentioned they had priced in a further rise a few weeks back. Interesting to see what they are saying now.

I should hope they raise them, I'm cashed up!

If they don't, it's utter responsibility. It's their job to curb inflation, not protect the foolish.

dhukka · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
I should hope they raise them, I'm cashed up!

If they don't, it's utter responsibility. It's their job to curb inflation, not protect the foolish.

Agreed it's not their job to bail out investors. However I think the inflation scare is overdone. Deflation will be the theme in 08. THe RBA might be giving back interest rate hikes by the end of the year or into early next.

MS+Tradesim · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

By the time US economic contraction actually filters through the global system and effects are felt by Australian companies I don't think inflation for us will be an issue. I wonder if RBA would be better off holding rates given the lag time for their effects to be felt. The banks have already upped rates under their own steam. I could be wrong as I'm not up on economics.

Whiskers · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

MS+Tradesim said:
By the time US economic contraction actually filters through the global system and effects are felt by Australian companies I don't think inflation for us will be an issue. I wonder if RBA would be better off holding rates given the lag time for their effects to be felt. The banks have already upped rates under their own steam. I could be wrong as I'm not up on economics.

I agree. I think the RBA is well aware of the down line consequences of a US slowdown and will err on the side of caution this time and hold.

Trembling Hand · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
Anyone know where I can get a quote on Aussie interest rate futures? Nick Radge mentioned they had priced in a further rise a few weeks back. Interesting to see what they are saying now.

http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm

But its a day behind

dhukka · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm

But its a day behind

cheers TH

dhukka · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

From the link supplied by TH:

As at 22 January, the SFE 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures February 2008
contract was trading at 93.215, indicative of a 17% expectation that the RBA will change the Target Cash Rate by at least 25 basis points from 6.75% to 7.00% on the 6th of February 2008 (ie, compared to a 83% expectation of no rate change). The table below highlights how market expectations of a rate increase for February 2008 has evolved in recent days.

Trading Day ----No Change ---- Increase to 7.00%
11 January --------57% -----------43%
14 January --------61% -----------39%
15 January --------59% -----------41%
16 January --------64% -----------36%
17 January --------61% -----------39%
18 January --------69% -----------31%
21 January --------59% -----------41%
22 January --------83% -----------17%

You can see expectations of a rate hike clearly took a dive yesterday. Will be interesting to see where they are after today.

tech/a · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Temjin said:
hahah a quote for the day

Did anyone realise that the biggest gain in the stock market history was the day AFTER the biggest LOST day?

The federal reserve cut did came as a surprise, but then the pattern of a big day down and then a big day up was almost a history repeat of the 1929s!

The smart money will definitely sell on the rally up.

Snap.
Pretty well my own view of the situation.
minimise loss if you have it and get set short if you have CFD's.

May not come off tomorrow but likely to continue its fall sooner than later.

Expect volatility until the market has time to absorb the figures coming out and the impact on dropping of rates.

Lots of "reactive" trading going on.
DANGEROUS.

doctorj · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Snap.
Pretty well my own view of the situation.
minimise loss if you have it and get set short if you have CFD's.

Since when have you been a discretionary trader???

Aussiejeff · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

MS+Tradesim said:
By the time US economic contraction actually filters through the global system and effects are felt by Australian companies I don't think inflation for us will be an issue. I wonder if RBA would be better off holding rates given the lag time for their effects to be felt. The banks have already upped rates under their own steam. I could be wrong as I'm not up on economics.

Good point about the lag involved. The advent of high speed broadband transactions involving Trillions of dollars around the planet on any given day means the slow, plodding deliberations of Reserve Banks worldwide are more often than not going to be somewhat out of sync with what is happening in the NOW. They usually base their decisions on inflation figures from the dim dark past, generally not taking into account the massive dailly shifts that can wreck whole financial markets in the interim between the figures THEN and the reality NOW.

The surprise early "pre-emptive" rates cut move by the US Fed Reserve might have set a precedent. I wouldn't be surprised to see this faster reacting, "pre-emptive" approach used more often by RB governors around the globe. I personally think it's time RB's moved into the 21st Century anyway and became more actively involved in macro and micro economic management, rather than often allowing the economy to swing too far one way or the other before acting. Maybe under Rudd, that is what the Aus RB will attempt to do?

AJ

tech/a · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

doctorj said:
Since when have you been a discretionary trader???

August 2007.
CFD's This month.
Opened an account with Pacific Trader a couple of weeks ago.

Still a systems trader when the climate is right.
Only using 20% of available funds for discretionary--thats enough.

tech/a · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

XJO 5 min chart

UGLY if long.
Xmas if short

vert · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

just dropped 40 points the last 5 mins

is the rally over ???????????

nikki · 23 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
As I said on another thread, US futures rolled over after close. Nasdaq was killed thanks to AAPL. Friday swing low was not taken out.

Anyone looking at going long here for anymore than a very short term trade must have rocks in their heads. Tech and China are the last cards in the deck, and the US hasn't realised yet they may well be stuffed. I would be looking for a severely down day tomorrow in the US. What are people going to buy now? Even the market leaders appear stuffed, and all this mess is spreading to the 'sure things'.

In 87 there are three trading days that stand out. People might be well advised to look at them, and perhaps see where we might be in relation to that...

Hi Chops_a_must, would you mind point out what you mean by your last comment.

XAO Technical Analysis

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